What The Bills Will Do in Round 1

[Philo]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

 

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

 

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

[Bill from NYC]

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

 

Hey, you asked.

[Philo]

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

 

Hey, you asked.

 

That is true. I've always liked McClain, but I don't see the Bills taking a LB in the first round. If the QBs and LTs they like are gone, I'd bet they trade down, but that's my opinion.

 

For the record, I wouldn't be totally upset if they did draft him though. A little yes, totally? No.

[earthtobrint]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

[Philo]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree, the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

 

I don't disagree that Dan Williams is a first round pick, but he could go even further than Miami at #12, IMO.

 

And good point on how Nix has the tackles rated, I think that will be the biggest influence on what we do at #9.

[gobilz]

punt

[Bill from NYC]

That is true. I've always liked McClain, but I don't see the Bills taking a LB in the first round. If the QBs and LTs they like are gone, I'd bet they trade down, but that's my opinion.

 

For the record, I wouldn't be totally upset if they did draft him though. A little yes, totally? No.

 

I have been complaining about the Bills OL for more than a decade. It has been and continues to be their worst shortcoming. For this reason, you will hear no complaints from me if they grab Bulaga, even though I see him as a right tackle.

 

I view McClain as a potential superstar, so if they select him at #9 I will be thrilled, but I doubt he will be there when we select.

[SawchukBills]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

 

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

 

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

 

You need to show your work...or did you make these numbers out???

[Russ 'Em]

With Buddy's recent trip to O St. he could be looking to trade up and get Russell Okung as our day 1 starting LT.

[Max997]

DT isnt a priority position?

 

I want a LT first but I wouldnt have a problem with Dan Williams

[Red]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

 

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

 

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

 

 

I'll take.

 

I agree with your percentages, and think that drafting beef early and often is the smartest thing to do at this point. Tebow fans see him now in the 3rd round, and I think that is accurate. This would allow us to take a LT with our 1st, and maybe a big NT with our second.

 

I feel better with Nix and Whaley running the show, but Modrak is still the VP of scouting, and his glorious tenure has graced us with such gems as Mike Williams, Donte Whitner, and James Hardy.

[Philo]

You need to show your work...or did you make these numbers out???

 

As I prefaced, these are just numbers I came up with. No formulas or equations, just my thoughts.

 

DT isnt a priority position?

 

I want a LT first but I wouldnt have a problem with Dan Williams

 

I didn't say DT wasn't a priority, I meant D. Williams as a bit of a reach player. I know we need a DT but I would prefer grabbing one in the 2nd, but thats just me.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Considering the Bills obviously don't place a great deal of value on offensive tackles, I'd say there is about a 70% chance we draft a QB in the first round. I'd say that's about a 50% chance we trade down and draft Tebow later in the first. But then again we are just pulling numbers out of our asses here so who cares?

[Philo]

Sorry, I didn't know that speculating is taboo here.

[Steely Dan]

This is what I'd like to see, not what I think they'll do. Trade back with the Bronco's and pick up a fourth rounder. Then take Dan Williams.

 

I would absolutely HATE to see Miami walk away from day one with Williams!!

[Philo]

This is what I'd like to see, not what I think they'll do. Trade back with the Bronco's and pick up a fourth rounder. Then take Dan Williams.

 

I would absolutely HATE to see Miami walk away from day one with Williams!!

 

That's a good scenario as well. And I agree, I would hate it if Miami grabbed Williams, whether or not they do, no one knows.

[WellDressed]

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

 

Hey, you asked.

 

Amen, Crohn's or not, we really need a dominant LB. He'd be nice if we dropped down a bit and picked up an additional 2nd or 3rd.

[Doc]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

As much as I'd like to see a guy like Williams, I think the Bills can get a NT type in round 2 or 2 (Cam Thomas or Linval Joseph) easier than a LT prospect.

[McBeane]

With Buddy's recent trip to O St. he could be looking to trade up and get Russell Okung as our day 1 starting LT.

 

They do have other prospects than Okung.

[bkc]

I have been complaining about the Bills OL for more than a decade. It has been and continues to be their worst shortcoming. For this reason, you will hear no complaints from me if they grab Bulaga, even though I see him as a right tackle.

 

I view McClain as a potential superstar, so if they select him at #9 I will be thrilled, but I doubt he will be there when we select.

he will there . How many inside linebackers have been taken in the top ten in the last ten years . That said we can't take an inside linebacker unless both qb's and dan williams or any tackle we like are off the board

[bkc]

As I prefaced, these are just numbers I came up with. No formulas or equations, just my thoughts.

 

 

 

I didn't say DT wasn't a priority, I meant D. Williams as a bit of a reach player. I know we need a DT but I would prefer grabbing one in the 2nd, but thats just me.

the Dan williams thing will be interesting to watch. Buddy said he didn't like one year wonders and Dan Williams is certainly that. That said he is rising up all the mocks and there is a tf 3/4 nose tackles so we will see

[Philo]

he will there . How many inside linebackers have been taken in the top ten in the last ten years . That said we can't take an inside linebacker unless both qb's and dan williams or any tackle we like are off the board

 

Unfortunately, you are correct. If somehow the first 8 picks are the 2 QBs, Dan Williams and the top 5 tackle prospects, then McClain would be a viable option. However, I would imagine the Bills trading down in that scenario. I just don't see the Bills taking McClain.

[bkc]

Unfortunately, you are correct. If somehow the first 8 picks are the 2 QBs, Dan Williams and the top 5 tackle prospects, then McClain would be a viable option. However, I would imagine the Bills trading down in that scenario. I just don't see the Bills taking McClain.

seems like the tackles are starting to slip ,(davis and Buluga ) . THis is going to be very interesting

[uforesircher]

i'd be happy with one the following: best lt or best dt/nt or rolando mcclain.

 

i throw mcclain in there because i firmly believe that he will be a force in the nfl for years to come - one of a very few players in this draft that are as close to "can't miss" as you can get.

[purple haze]

I have been complaining about the Bills OL for more than a decade. It has been and continues to be their worst shortcoming. For this reason, you will hear no complaints from me if they grab Bulaga, even though I see him as a right tackle.

 

I view McClain as a potential superstar, so if they select him at #9 I will be thrilled, but I doubt he will be there when we select.

 

I think he will definitely be there at 9 because there are so many high end DT's and LT's. If both QB's go in the top 8 McClain will definitely be there. The guy the Bills would take at 9 is probably someone nobody talks about. If three LT's go before there pick the Bills will go defense. McClain. I believe they should trade down regardless and pick up another 2nd rounder. The draft is deep with DT's and you can even get a good LT in the 2nd like Ducasse or Saffold. I want that extra second because it will expand their options. They could trade the two and get back into the 1st round or keep it and get something good. I think we should expect big things out of this draft. Nix said it's the way they will build. I can see them manuevering.

[NewEra]

That is true. I've always liked McClain, but I don't see the Bills taking a LB in the first round. If the QBs and LTs they like are gone, I'd bet they trade down, but that's my opinion.

 

For the record, I wouldn't be totally upset if they did draft him though. A little yes, totally? No.

 

I hope that's what we do. Bulaga/Okung(prob won't be there)/Clausen/Bradford(won't be there) or trade down and hopefully we can get an additional 2nd round pick. That would be huge as it looks like its a pretty decent draft through the 1st 3 rounds. May be able to trade down AND get McClain or Brandon Graham. I'd love to land Graham, dude is a gamer. CHeck our some of his vids, he's got moves and REALLY gets after it. He made Ed Wang (yeah I know it's Ed Wang and not Jake Long, but he's not bad) look like Jonathon Scott.

[jonnyb]

With the questions swirling around a lost season in 2011, I think there is a very good chance the Bills trade down. If they trade down they save some money and gain another pick. The team appears to be more dedicated to the draft than signing free agents which is also a sign that they could be looking at acquiring more picks to fill holes. With a pick in the middle to late 1st round and an extra 2nd or 3rd they can get a quality NT, OT and QB. For example: Odrick, Ducasse, and Brown or Teebow...just a thought....

[manbeast]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

 

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

 

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

How did you come up with these percentages and then I will tell you. I believe you are close as far as how the fans feel.

[NewEra]

With the questions swirling around a lost season in 2011, I think there is a very good chance the Bills trade down. If they trade down they save some money and gain another pick. The team appears to be more dedicated to the draft than signing free agents which is also a sign that they could be looking at acquiring more picks to fill holes. With a pick in the middle to late 1st round and an extra 2nd or 3rd they can get a quality NT, OT and QB. For example: Odrick, Ducasse, and Brown or Teebow...just a thought....

 

 

Odrick? a 295 DT in a 3-4? I'll pass on Odrick.

[brenty]

To be honest, its a tough one. I have been studying all the players and teams and looking at opinions of the pro "guessers" and i really think buffalo is going to draft somebody. He will most likely play football and from a college of some sort. I dont see buffalo drafting anyone from highschool. I think that player will be of a male sex, and probably white or black. He will be tall and have a full head of hair. I think he will be strong but not to strong like superman but just right like the bears porridge. Once again im not fully certain on my guess of who buffalo will pick but i think im closer then all of you guys. Like all the people last year who thought we were going to draft maybin (sarcasm, because no one did)

 

So please shut the !@#$ up about who we are going to draft. How about we just start a message board right now of everyone saying it was a crappy pick and at the same time it was a good pick. HOLY COW!!!!!!!

[manbeast]

I'll take.

 

I agree with your percentages, and think that drafting beef early and often is the smartest thing to do at this point. Tebow fans see him now in the 3rd round, and I think that is accurate. This would allow us to take a LT with our 1st, and maybe a big NT with our second.

 

I feel better with Nix and Whaley running the show, but Modrak is still the VP of scouting, and his glorious tenure has graced us with such gems as Mike Williams, Donte Whitner, and James Hardy.

Do you really think Donahoe shared power. Whitner is not a bust yet although modrak was not top dog yet. The only player that can be called a bust is Derek Fine and fourth round busts are not that uncomin. I will say that Modrak was definitely top dog last year.

[Thurman#1]

the Dan williams thing will be interesting to watch. Buddy said he didn't like one year wonders and Dan Williams is certainly that. That said he is rising up all the mocks and there is a tf 3/4 nose tackles so we will see

 

 

Williams is no one-year wonder. He is a 3 year starter and improved each year. Yeah, he had a terrific year last year, but he didn't come from nowhere.

[SawchukBills]

the Dan williams thing will be interesting to watch. Buddy said he didn't like one year wonders and Dan Williams is certainly that. That said he is rising up all the mocks and there is a tf 3/4 nose tackles so we will see

 

I like Dan Williams...thought he looked good at the combine...but not at #9.

[Thurman#1]

You seem to have included one low-percentage case (trading down) and left out three or four others with equally low but non-zero percentages of happening. It would be nice if GMs were predictable, but they're not, and if you're going to put numbers on chances, you oughta include all the things with much of a chance of happening. What would you have put as the chances of picking a safety in 2006, and yet it happened.

 

Why limit it to Clausen. Some think Clausen is better than Bradford. There is a chance that Bradford falls and Clausen gets picked up early . If it happens there's certainly a good chance we'd take him.

 

McClain, as many noted.

 

Dez Bryant if the guys we like early are all gone.

 

And trading up, most likely for one of the QBs if one guy falls to 4th or later, would be a possibility, though I suppose we might also trade up for Okung if he fell a bit.

 

Those are the four low-percentage chance things that still might happen, Bradford, Dez Bryant, McClain and trading up. And I would argue that each is just as likely to happen as trading down.

[manbeast]

To be honest, its a tough one. I have been studying all the players and teams and looking at opinions of the pro "guessers" and i really think buffalo is going to draft somebody. He will most likely play football and from a college of some sort. I dont see buffalo drafting anyone from highschool. I think that player will be of a male sex, and probably white or black. He will be tall and have a full head of hair. I think he will be strong but not to strong like superman but just right like the bears porridge. Once again im not fully certain on my guess of who buffalo will pick but i think im closer then all of you guys. Like all the people last year who thought we were going to draft maybin (sarcasm, because no one did)

 

So please shut the !@#$ up about who we are going to draft. How about we just start a message board right now of everyone saying it was a crappy pick and at the same time it was a good pick. HOLY COW!!!!!!!

Are you certain it will be a he.

[brenty]

Are you certain it will be a he.

 

I am 100% certain. I have done alot of research and there is just no room for a female to be in football unless in the movie Necessary Roughness and Little Giants with Icebox... and they arent in the draft this year so im pretty sure im right.

[NewEra]

I like Dan Williams...thought he looked good at the combine...but not at #9.

 

I'd die of a heart attack if your mock draft sig came true. The football gods would never bestow such a draft on the bills. They now we would find a way to screw it up. Go bills!!

[Steely Dan]

I think he will definitely be there at 9 because there are so many high end DT's and LT's. If both QB's go in the top 8 McClain will definitely be there. The guy the Bills would take at 9 is probably someone nobody talks about. If three LT's go before there pick the Bills will go defense. McClain. I believe they should trade down regardless and pick up another 2nd rounder. The draft is deep with DT's and you can even get a good LT in the 2nd like Ducasse or Saffold. I want that extra second because it will expand their options. They could trade the two and get back into the 1st round or keep it and get something good. I think we should expect big things out of this draft. Nix said it's the way they will build. I can see them manuevering.

 

It's deep in DT's but not 3-4 nose tackles. JMO

 

 

To be honest, its a tough one. I have been studying all the players and teams and looking at opinions of the pro "guessers" and i really think buffalo is going to draft somebody. He will most likely play football and from a college of some sort. I dont see buffalo drafting anyone from highschool. I think that player will be of a male sex, and probably white or black. He will be tall and have a full head of hair. I think he will be strong but not to strong like superman but just right like the bears porridge. Once again im not fully certain on my guess of who buffalo will pick but i think im closer then all of you guys. Like all the people last year who thought we were going to draft maybin (sarcasm, because no one did)

 

So please shut the !@#$ up about who we are going to draft. How about we just start a message board right now of everyone saying it was a crappy pick and at the same time it was a good pick. HOLY COW!!!!!!!

 

You do know this message board is for sharing opinions right? You have a right to share yours but so does everybody else. Sheesh!

[Bill from NYC]

Whitner is not a bust yet although modrak was not top dog yet.

 

Yikes!

[VADC Bills]

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

 

Hey, you asked.

I agree. I'm on the McClain bandwagon. ILB and OLB is a huge weakness for us. However with that being said the smart move would be to move down and generate more draft picks. It would not surprise me to see them move down and then draft a skill position. I would not rule this approach out. Most people feel the draft is deep in our positions of need OL and DL. This is the perfect senario to trade down and draft a skill player.