BrooklynBills

Yeah. I could see Chargers.

They traded him so I'm not sure he'd be so open to just head back there. I think he'd have Buffalo on his list of teams. He'd be a perfect WR to add in as a jack-of-all-trades type. Kind of like a younger Manny Sanders (who we missed last year IMO). Also, he'd be pretty familiar with Kromer's schemes which has the WRs blocking quite a bit. I doubt he's going to cost much.

Love Van Pran but he's going back to school. I think he'll go much earlier next year too. I think I'm hoping our first 4 picks are 2 OL, 1 WR, and 1 DT - not in that order necessarily.

What is more interesting is that Al Holcomb is going to be called "Senior defensive assistant" when the Bills already have Eric Washington on staff as "senior defensive assistant/DL coach." I haven't seen too many instances where a team has 2 senior assistants.

Leslie Frazier is 64. I would guess Bobby Babich is probably in line to be the team's next DC sooner rather than later. He is currently the LBs coach. Al Holcomb is a well respected LB coach in the NFL and has been a DC in two different places. Read between the lines.

The Bills will have 35 million in cap space for 2024 if they just do the Von and Josh restructures and cut Hines, Neal, and McKenzie. They can get to $57 mil by restructuring Diggs and cutting Morse (assuming they don't do that this offseason). That's also with Allen playing on a $47 MIL cap number and having Milano and Dawkins in the final years of their contracts (they will either be cut or extended - either choice saves money of the 2024 cap). Dawson Knox has a contract that can be restructured as well. Not sure what 2024 Cap issue you are referring to specifically.

Seeing alot about cutting Hines. I should have put in a note that I would be in favor of giving him a small extension that lowers his cap hit. Mostly just cut him because he has the 16th highest cap hit among RBs and that isn't a justifiable use of cap space given that he'll likely be the 3rd option and RB and play STs. As far as Von's restructure - the Bills can't get out of his contract in any way realistic way until after the 2024 season. He has GTD salaries until then. His restructure spreads out roughly over $10 million over the remaining 5 years - so you are adding about $2.5 mil to his future cap hits. His 2023 cap number goes from 18.6 to 7.6. His 2024 cap number goes from 21 to 23.9. Half of his 2024 salary is GTD so the Bills were NEVER getting away from this large 2024 cap hit. With no restructure, the cost to cut him after 2024: DEAD MONEY 7.41 | CAP SAVINGS 13.8 With the restructure, the cost to cut him after 2024: DEAD MONEY 15.7 | CAP SAVINGS 8.2 The cap saving benefits of doing his restructure now far outweigh the extra 5.6 mil in cap savings that the Bills will get on the 2025 cap if they just kept the contract as is. To put it in a bit of perspective. The 10.8 mil that Bills save on the 2023 cap with the restructure is roughly 5% of the 2023 cap. The extra 5.6 mil in cap savings that the Bills will get on the 2025 cap (which is projected as 282 mil) is roughly 2% of the 2025 cap. This also doesn't factor in the idea that Miller could be just fine from his injury AND that the equivalent of a $24 mil Von Miller cap hit in 2025 (which is what his 2025 cap hit would be after the restructure) would be a $19 mil cap hit for the 2023 season which is roughly what Von Miller's current cap hit is now without the restructure. This is basically a free $10.8 million cap savings.

Wanted to do a mock offseason but realizing that the Salary Cap portion is kind of a thread all on its own. I know its been discussed here but I don't think I've seen anything where the money and decisions are really broken down with the corresponding numbers. Obviously, this won't be everyone's kind of thread as i realize that some people just don't take that big of interest into the inner roster workings and cap crunching. Would love to get some feedback though on what others think of some of these decisions and some of the different cap saving routes we could go. Initial Cap Space: -16.8 million Step 1: Creating Cap Space (easy moves) -Restructure Josh Allen => creates 21.5 million in cap space -Restructure Von Miller => creates 10.8 million in cap space -Cut Nyheim Hines => creates 4.8 million in cap space -Cut Isaiah McKenzie => creates 2.6 million in cap space -Cut Siran Neal => creates 2.2 million in cap space These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason. The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million. So the Bills will effectively have $18 million in cap space for FA contracts and re-signings after these moves. Josh Allen's deal is structured for us to restructure it several times before we extend him again and if it reaches a point where we are afraid to restructure it because his play has dropped off or because of injury then we are screwed in that short term and will just need to eat it. Von's deal seems to be structured for him to do a planned restructure this offseason. Cutting Hines sucks because I like the player but paying a backup RB almost $5 mil on the cap is just terrible roster management. I wouldn't be opposed to doing a small extension that could lower his cap hit some but realistically I don't think it makes sense. McKenzie and Neal are backups who are just paid too much considering how much playing time we want them to get moving forward. Step 2: Creating more Cap Space (harder decisions) - players who I don't think should play on these cap numbers next year -Mitch Morse at 11.6 => I think with the way his contract is structured initially this coming season would be his last with the Bills. Next year, they can get out the contract with real minimal dead money. But I don't know if it's justifiable to pay him over $11 mil on the cap next year simply due to his overall play. He is paid as a top 10 C and I don't think his overall play is there at all. Not to mention that we have a very capable C in waiting in Ryan Bates. Cutting Morse would save the Bills $5.3 million. Morse has $0 GTD this year or next with cap hits of over $11 mil and base salaries of $6.6 and $6.8 so I wonder if there is a good chance here to work on a salary reduction that gives him money this year and lowers that 11 mil hit to something more manageable. Either way, I'm trying to save at least $3-$5 mil on the cap by cutting him or working out a salary reduction. Lets just split the difference and say we save $4 mil. -Ed Oliver at 10.7 and Tim Settle at 4.9 => The interior of the Bills DL was a big let down last season. Daquon Jones was the only player that I felt was having a solid season. Oliver was streaky and he has periods where he is just invisible. Settle was a disappointment. Bills are locked in to $10.7 GTD for Oliver this year. I don't think a trade is going to make any sense for another team given that Oliver's full salary is GTD. Maybe the best thing here is to extend Oliver with a reasonable out in two years. Try to take your lumps in the future when the cap hopefully rises and you can better absorb some dead money. Or you get lucky and he takes a step and you have him signed to a reasonable deal. Just don't think he play on that cap number. Settle isn't signed after next year and I think I'd just cut him and save the 2.2 mil. I'd extend Oliver at 4yrs, 44 million, giving him a 13 mi signing and GTD his year 1 salary and a portion of year 2. Total GTD $: 17.9 Signing bonus: 13 million Year 1 cap: 5.15 Year 2 cap: 8.25 Year 3 cap: 14.25 (can cut him before this season saving 7.75m) Year 4 cap: 16.75 Cap Savings from Morse cut or salary reduction: calling it $4 mil Cap Savings from Oliver extension: 5.55 mil Cap Savings from Settle release: 2.2 mil Total effective cap room: roughly $29-30 million Step 3: Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano So I've lumped these two guys together because they are both 29 and have been consistent performers. They are both effectively signed for two more years and I think both are likely candidates for small extensions in a year or two. As such, it could also be beneficial to restructure their deals and buy some more cap room. Especially if there are plans to extend them moving forward. For now, I will just leave it as a thought, but the Bills can save roughly $6 mil on a Dawkins re-structure and another 6.5 on a Milano re-structure. I think you would only do this if there was a strong plan to extend these guys moving forward though. Anyway, would love hear some opinions on some of these decisions. Nothing really seems too out of left field IMO. Will try to put together something for Free Agency with regards to the salary cap in a few days.

Hunter Renfrow

Well written piece. Awful circumstances. Maybe this deserves to be pinned?

Any Edmunds extension will likely be in the long term range, which is going to keep his cap hit depressed in the early going. Due to his age, you could likely see an obvious restructure put in for year 2, which will effectively keep his cap hits low until his 3rd season on the contract (age 27) which could line up with a Milano cut. I'm not fully in the "re-sign Edmunds" camp but it certainly feels like a very doable thing cap wise. I highly doubt he will be getting the gaurantees that Roquan got so I could see a long term deal that has some funny money at the end. Hell, he's so young that you could conceivably dip into his contract 3 times for cap coupons before he hits 28yo. Year 1 (25)- Sign him - initial cap hit is low Year 2 (26) - planned restructure - lower cap hit Year 4 (28) - small extension - lower cap hit Year 6 (30) - release. Eat some dead money Obviously, would have to spend more time digging into the numbers here to see a more accurate version of this, but that isn't an overall bad situation given his age and athleticism.

He's exactly the type of WR that we need. Great size, great hands, great athleticism. Alot of his highlights are contested catches. Can lineup inside and outside. Can play the big slot WR role that is becoming prevalent in a lot of NFL offenses. This would be a great pick if it fell this way. SMU has been quietly churning out some quality NFL WRs and Rice might the best one. I just like his WR profile overall and think its a more important component than just finding a pure burner (Don't get me wrong, I want one of those as well). IMO, Rice could be like getting a young Emmanuel Sanders. A 2nd technically accomplished WR is something that I thought we missed alot last year.

Basham turned 24 in December of his rookie season. This dude will be 24 in March before the draft. I think it definitely gives me some pause on if this dude is worth a top 30 pick. Who was the last 24 year old rookie that turned out to be a great success?

The Jaquan Johnson stuff is probably a big part of this. He was considered the MAIN backup at either S spot and he just wasn't ready to play and didn't look like he could play in the NFL. Just looking into Danna's coaching upbringing. He has some good secondary coaches in his mentor list: Emmitt Thomas, Todd Bowles, Perry Fewell

He will be 24 in March. Not a complete "NO" from me but just something to think about with this prospect.

Salgado was the safeties coach for just this season. Bobby Babich (now LBs coach) was the safeties coach from 2018-2021, and he was assistant DB coach in 2017 with no safety coach listed so its safe to say that this the person who should be credited with any stellar play from our safeties. The Bills are using a lot more 2 deep coverages (as is the entire NFL) so maybe Salgado just wasn't up to the task. The safety play this year was atrocious even for backup calibre players.

Conservative Option: -Sign T George Fant to compete with Spencer Brown. I would project this cap hit to be about 2 or 3 mil. This would give you a capable swing guy to spell Dawkins in case of injury as well. -Target a OT rounds 3-5 of the draft. Examples: round 3 - Warren McClendon; round 4 - Nick Saldiveri -Your OTs are Dawkins, Brown, Fant, Doyle, and your rookie developmental T -Sign G Trai Turner, cap hit roughly 2-3 mil -Draft a G in rounds 1-3 of the draft. The Bills need to flat out just add some athletic talent here. They don't really have any guys that can stand up physically to other teams interior lineman. Examples: round 2 - John Micheal Schmitz; round 2 - Cody Mauch -Keep Morse at C Dawkins-Bates-Morse-rookie/Turner-Fant/Brown | with a young mid round developmental lineman. Other than rookie contracts, you've added roughly 4-6 mil in cap here. Aggressive Option: - Cut Morse (saving 5.36 mil on the cap-6mil dead money) - Sign Ben Powers (10M AAV - year 1 cap hit 5m) - Move Bates to C - Draft OT in round 1 - Dawand Jones; competes with Brown (this dude is showing out so he might shoot up the draft board out of our range) - Draft G/T in round 3 - Warren McClendon; starts at G, could play RT also - Draft G/C in round 4 - Jarrett Patterson; backup at both G spots and played C for 3 years in college. Dawkins-POWERS-Bates-McClendon-Jones Other than rookie contracts, you are SAVING .36 mil on the cap here so you could probably still afford a quality backup G/T. And you are getting significantly younger and more athletic on the OL.

But they were equally great when they switched full time to A. Lynn's running game which was different than Roman's. Kromer is good. I doubt he forgot how to coach. I think they are asking these guys to do stuff that is out of there skill set with going vertical so much.

I haven't dug into FAs too much yet so I can't comment on the players but they might have to add 3 players. Personally, I like Bates at C, adding 2 starting Gs, and a OT like maybe Fant who can compete with Brown. I'm not out on Brown yet. Unfortunately, I think this might be a weak year for OL in the draft so it's either going to be take one early or not at all.

That 10 mil in cap space could get you a nice offensive lineman and a comparable player to ed oliver. Joe Thuney's first year cap hit was under 5 million.

@MAJBobby Great job again! Restructures: Yes to Allen and Von. No to Diggs, wait til next year Dawkins: Can't do anything that makes it financially harder to move on unfortunately. Maybe they can figure out a reduction that gives him small guarantees into the 25 season? I like the Milano extension idea and i wonder if those void years are there because they already had this possibility in mind. Same with a small Hyde extension(I think he will be fine physically). Ed Oliver - they either need to extend him or trade him IMO. They can't just let him play out his 1 yr / 10 mil deal. Personally, I'm in the trade camp for Oliver. Just think you can spend that money better.

Makes you wonder a bit why McVay asked him to leave the Rams a couple years ago. I'm not sure you ever "lose it" as an OL coach. Usually these guys are good for a while and from job to job.

Is it too much to ask that our defense has the ability to scheme up some gameplans in the playoffs that are the deciding factor. Everyone wants to bring up these games that the offense failed and thats fair but they are failing because the other team is scheming up stuff that is disrupting our offense. AFCC vs. the Chiefs - the difference was that our D got abused and Spags outsmarted Daboll/Allen. AFCDiv vs. the Chiefs - offense showed up this game. Defense was embarrassing. AFCDiv vs. Bengals - the OL was bad but Anarumo outsmarted our OC/Allen with the blitzes from depth because all our routes are slow developing. Is it too much to ask our defensive minded HC and our DC to scheme up a defensive plan that is the difference in the game? Are we forgetting that the Colts in 2020 moved the ball up and down the field? Or that we were a couple drops from that Miami game being a possible embarrassment as well?

we have the guy who helped design this run game on staff already.

This would be a nice REALISTIC development (No, Vic Fangio isn't coming here to be a DC).