Big Turk

Normal weather in mid January is around 32 degrees

4 points over 17 games is pretty much meaningless and not statistically significant. Would Cook catching an easy TD against Miami make you feel differently if they had 3 more points than last year? Now if you said the Chiefs offense scored more points last year than yeah, that would be a huge difference...496 to 371...125 points less this year. 455 to 451 is basically meaningless.

Hugely overstated. Watch how much the cap goes up.

That's a silly statement. Why would you trade a play with a near 100% success rate for one that has about a 60% success rate AT BEST? No NFL coach in their right mind is trading as close to a guarantee for something slightly better than 50/50 and if they are, they won't be an NFL head coach too long. This isn't 1970 anymore. Gotta stay with the times.

Cook finished 6th in the NFL in total yards, 18 yards from 4th. What does he need to do, finish 1st and have a 1000 yard lead over 2nd place? Kincaid broke the Bills franchise reception mark in a season for TEs in his rookie year. He has been increasingly a difference maker as the season has gone on and will be headed to elite territory in the next year or two.

Yes, because a team false starting itself to victory under 5 minutes would be great for the game.

Fins are playing their coldest game in Franchise History. They will have lost the game before even getting on the field. AccuWeather is not very accurate in localized scenarios

Kincaid and Cook aren't difference makers?

History is on our side if we win this matchup. Bills and Steelers have met 3 times in the postseason before this matchup. Each time the winner has gone on to play in the Super Bowl. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/history-says-winner-steelers-vs-051544455.html

I believe due to the penalty? I think it stops regardless of whether it's enforced or not.

I'd argue that without proper context they are meaningless. Is Allen throwing up a 4th and 2 pass from the Miami 40 that gets picked in the EZ worse than throwing incomplete or taking a sack? Bills gained 15 yards of field position. Obviously you could say they could try the FG but you don't have that option once you snap the ball. Allen only has one pick 6 in his career. It happened on a pass to Beasley that hit off his hands and CJ Mosley returned for a TD. Believe it was only like a 20 yard return or less. Other QBs throw pick 6s quite a bit. Are you claiming them throwing fewer INTs but more pick 6s is better? Also, do are "punts" really better than turnovers? Obviously FGs are if you are in range, but an INT on 3rd down inside the opposing 10 yard line versus a punt is relatively meaningless. What really matters is drive score percentage, and the Bills consistently rank near the top of the NFL in that.

I've watched that play at least 10 times and every time I'm left stunned that he didn't score from his momentum carrying him in. It was a solid tackle by Baker. An illegal, solid tackle, but that didn't get called.

The issue is any team that has a solid, fundamentally sound defense that doesn't "take the cheese" with all their misdirections and motions is going to shut them down. The ones who don't they will put up huge numbers against because of their speed. I watched the game again yesterday, and literally even I could see watching on TV that Miami has basically 3 or 4 passing concepts that they keep using over and over again. Screens, short passes over the middle or the deeper seam routes to Hill/Waddle. There is literally nothing else they do. Tua can't push the ball outside the numbers. In the first half, they were getting us with a bunch of misdirection counters. Bills said F that and basically brought a safety down into the box and went single high from two high shell they played in the first half and told Tua "beat us". He couldn't. Even with Douglas out and Jackson in. Ended with 173 yards and 2 INTs. Bills started crashing the LOS to stop the run and held Fins to 7 yards on 3 carries. End result, in the 2nd half Miami went 3 and out 4 times, got 2 first downs, and gained 57 yards, scoring 0 points. That's why they can't beat good teams, because their system is easy to defend once you stop buying all the noise.

Also I'll add that EPA takes all this into account and Allen has pretty much been 1st or 2nd every year since 2020. This is a game they definitely are going to want to have Linval Joseph active for.

I mean if Pittsburgh punts 7 times in the game and they get Allen to throw an INT or 2 but we punt once, who really won the "turnover battle"? I'd argue we did and that this old school way of thinking about turnovers is very incomplete and without better context, virtually meaningless.

"The Hawk" making a triumphant return... If a player hasn't played in the stadium before they are going to have a hell of a time trying to figure out winds. Balls will sail, get caught up in the wind, dive into the ground and everything in between. Winds at one end of the field are different and swirl around meaning the pass you threw 5 minutes ago that got caught in the wind could now end up being an overthrow. The flags on the goalpost often are not blowing in the same direction as the wind on the field. It's wild. Jim Kelly talked extensively about it in his book. Allen has a clear advantage because he throws lasers that can cut through the wind. Trying to throw arcing balls of any type is a recipe for INTs, unless you have the wind going with you, but then it can just as easily be a 15 yard overthrow if you don't take a little off it. Kicking and punting will be fun too...

The Bills went to a Super Bowl once off the strength of the defense winning 10-7 over the Broncos in the AFCCG with a defensive TD and 1 FG. It doesn't matter how they get it done. Just that it gets done. You don't earn any style points at this time of year. Pretty sure if we win a Super Bowl but do it scoring 25 points or less every game, nobody is going to complain that it wasn't "good enough".

He might not be for long if he keeps going with the "Patriot Way"...the thing that has gotten more head coaches fired than anything else over the last 15 years. Seems like McD trying to reign Daboll in and not allowing him to act like a D-Bag towards players and other coaches might have been the rift. https://sports.yahoo.com/report-brian-daboll-patriots-way-104228059.html

We should have beat the Dolphins by a similar 48-20 score based on the game...we were the only reason it was close. Dropped TDs, wide open TD throw missed, turnovers, end of half nonsense, etc... By all rights the game should have been a laugher by early 3rd quarter.

Bills have handled him mostly pretty well. Some games he is a complete non factor.

Diggs is our best weapon. But I agree with your premise that he needs to get the ball more. Everytime he gets it something good usually happens.

That's not correct. They lost to the Colts in a blowout at home in November of 2021. I've posted this many many times before actually. However that is still well over 2 years now which is absurd considering how easy it is to lose by 7 or even 20 on an off day for other teams.

Pittsburgh also beat the Browns with Watson in there who has been mostly terrible for them. They have been playing better lately and really running the ball well. Rudolph has been throwing bombs downfield to WR's, but that likely won't be happening against us, especially in the wind. This should be a 10 point win for the Bills at least if they play well, especially without TJ Watt.

At the end of the day, a lot of the INT's don't really matter. I mean is an INT on 4th down where the other team gets the ball at their own 5 yard line really worse than a punt? I think the way people view football scenarios is very flawed in terms of the importance of turnovers. Is a team that punts 8 times and has no turnovers in a game more likely to win than the Bills who turn the ball over 3 times? I would say most likely no.

Allen has probably the worst INT luck of any QB I have ever seen. Also has at least 3 this year that were basically punts and caused the other team to start inside their own 10 rather than at their 40 if he threw incomplete. Those are actually smart plays that look bad on the stat sheet. Spectacular over the shoulder INT needed? No problem. Diving INT? No problem. The next week you watch the same player get a ball thrown right to them and drop it or dive and the ball hits the ground. Have seen so many INTs get overturned on replay by other QBs this year. Has Allen ever had any INT overturned?