Cash

Not voting until the season's over. If we go 9-7, I think probably keep him. If 7-9, probably fire. 8-8, also probably fire, but we shall see. I do think that even if he's kept, he should be quietly encouraged to let his brother seek greener pastures. Basically if it looks like the team has quit on him, fire him. It did pretty much look like that against Oakland and Pittsburgh, but if they close out with 3 straight wins, then it's hard to say the team quit on him.

Everyone knows you can't win with a mobile QB, so therefore the Texans should keep playing (and paying) this classic pocket passer.

1.) Whaley doesn't negotiate the contracts, Jim Overdorf does. 2.) I agree with you about the giving away of picks, but I do wonder how much of that comes from above him. I still tend to think the Sammy trade was marketing based. I have no proof.

I'll bite. It does seem like there's something to the idea that Rex's D completely needs a "coach on the field" at safety to handle all the complicated checks, or maybe it needs one at safety and another at LB. But if that's the case, then Rex needs to loudly and frequently tell his GM to go get him more than one safety who can fill that role! I'm not convinced that the Williams injury is really that critical - it makes just as much sense that we happened to play 4 bad offenses in a row, and that also coincided with a random streak of good play by the D. But if it is all about the Williams injury, then that, to me, is on Rex. He's the one who knows his scheme and its requirements. He's the one running practices, who can tell who is capable of running the D and who isn't. He knows which safeties he's had in the past who "got it", and can suggest those guys to Whaley.

He looks great, but from a team-building perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense to draft a WR in the first when any 2 of these are true: 1.) You don't have an established QB 2.) You've already spent heavily on a WR 3.) You're more than 1 piece away I think all 3 are true right now. Good WRs are important, but they basically come around every year, and if they pan out, they need to get PAID. So if we're going to trade Sammy, or we're sure we'll let him walk rather than sign him to big bucks, a guy like Davis would make some sense. Or if we're in a spot where Davis makes us a contender for the 3-ish year window where we have both him and Sammy, that would be a great move. But I think we're a ways away from there.

Very good breakdown of the situation, along with your prior post. We'll see how the season turns out, but if it keeps going south, I'd favor a "burn it to the ground" approach. Fire the coaching staff (I could go either way on GM - I tend to think Whaley's faults might not be his fault; see below), let Gilly walk, let Woods walk, don't exercise Tyrod's option, sign only guys who don't count for the comp pick formula, and trade down in the draft as much as possible - preferably for 2018 picks. The new coach comes in with an understanding that there's no pressure to win in 2017 and we do a full-on rebuild, which we haven't done since... Gailey, maybe? Ever since the no-playoff streak got long enough to be a thing, the Bills have been in "win now" mode every year, because they know they can't sell rebuilding to an already depressed fanbase. But if ever there was a time for it, it would be with new ownership. Great post, and I totally agree. I think Whaley is a good GM in terms of scouting/acquiring talent - both in the draft and in the pro ranks - but the organization has never seemed to have a coherent team-building vision. I don't know if that falls on Whaley, or if it's the situation many fear where Russ Brandon is dictating moves to sell tickets (Sammy trade being a prime example), or if it's something else.

Yeah, the last few (3 or so?) weeks, I've focused on Hughes a fair amount while watching the game, and he's been pretty invisible. Earlier in the year, it seemed like he was playing great, even if he wasn't necessarily getting sacks. Forcing a hurried throw or forcing the QB into the waiting arms of another pass rusher are great plays that don't show up on the stat sheet for Hughes. But it seems like it's been a while since he was making those plays. I have no idea what the reason is - injury? scheme? effort? - but it's definitely a big part of our defense falling off a cliff.

Serious question: if his problems stem from sickle-cell anemia, how can he ever get "healthy"? That's a genetic trait that he presumably has had his entire life. So what changed this year, and what would change going forward? I don't know a ton about sickle-cell. As for Michael Floyd, I'd probably be in favor of claiming him, maybe just in the hopes of getting a comp pick when he leaves in the offseason. But then again, it's not my $1.3 million paying for the hope of an extra late round pick. I don't know much about Floyd's off-field problems, other than that he was recently arrested for DUI. If memory serves, he's never had a season worthy of his draft status, but he was pretty good last year. If Floyd could get his act together and be the guy from 2015, I'd rather have him than Woods at the same money.

Thanks for the recap! My reaction: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

That would be a slight upgrade: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/ Not counting this year, we've had five 6-10's, three 7-9's, three 8-8's, two 9-7's, and one each of 5-11, 4-12, 3-13. This year will be between 6-10 and 9-7, but 6-10 will remain our most common record during the streak no matter what.

Gleason is kind of a hack, IMO. As Rumblings pointed out, he buried that allegation (of a verbal fight between Hughes and Wolfman Rob) deep in his article, and provides no source or background. He doesn't even allege that he has a source. Did anyone else report about this alleged fight, beyond just regurgitating Gleason? If so, I haven't seen it. Now, Hughes having beef with one or more of the coaches is totally plausible, and him getting less PT as a disciplinary measure is also plausible, but that doesn't make either one true. It's more plausible to me that Hughes' PT was reduced because he hasn't been playing as well lately (true in my amateur opinion) and maybe has been dogging it in practice.

1.) ABNE 2.) Then, anyone but the Cowboys 3.) I've always liked Green Bay 4.) Any underdog/unlikely candidate that is similar to the Bills - the Vikings are a good example here

Exactly. From what little I've seen of JimmyG, he seems a decent bit above the previous Pats backups that flamed out (and don't forget to include 3rd round pick Kevin O'Connell in that list). And maybe he's good enough to succeed with the Pats' hefty support network around him, but I'm not seeing him as good enough to drag us (or the Browns, e.g.) out of the dumpster. However, if I'm wrong, and he's as good as some people think (one of the posts in this thread compared him to Aaron Rodgers!), then I think it's very unlikely that the Pats make him available for trade -- especially within the division. What are the odds that 1.) He's really that good, and 2.) The Pats are wrong and think he's just mediocre? 1%? I don't think that chance is worth the cost. And keep in mind that the cost would likely be both draft picks and a fat contract for JimmyG.

Actual result was pretty much right in the middle of those two. #fingeronthepulse

Nope. Not for anything. Brian Hoyer 2.0

A convincing win might get be back on the 2016 bus, but with my hand on the "request stop" button. I don't expect a convincing win; I expect a loss that feels like we could have or should have won. Next most likely outcome IMO is a loss where we're never really in it. But I also wouldn't be shocked if the Bills beat the Steelers then lose to the Browns. I will say right now that if the Bills play 4 complete games down the stretch and win them all, I'll consider the season a success whether they make the playoffs or not. A complete game would be one where both offense and defense look good in all 4 quarters, and special teams aren't atrocious. Doesn't necessarily mean a blowout, because the other team might be playing well, too. But I'm done with moral victories -- if we look great but lose because Roethlisberger and Brown were ridiculous, the Bills still suck. I've already cut them a lot of slack this season (and many others), and there's no more slack to cut.

I'm not at all excited about this, but I don't totally get the hate that's being thrown around. In our last game, we started Justin Hunter and Walt Powell at WR, with Brandon Tate as the 3rd WR. Woods did wind up playing, but it seemed like he was only available in the case of an injury (which, of course, happened), and didn't look healthy. And that's the full list of active WRs on the Bills last week. We won't have Sammy Watkins back for at least 3 more weeks, and quite possibly longer. (Even if he comes back, I have no confidence he stays back for very long.) Who knows if/when Goodwin comes back, and even if he does, he's not very good. Tate may miss significant time. Woods might not get back to 100% all season, and even if he does, it probably won't be until after the bye at least. Our only non-WR weapons in the passing game are Clay and McCoy, and both of them are banged up as well. So I think it's fair to say that we need help at pass catcher, and specifically at WR. Given that, what options are truly better than bringing Harvin back? Maybe trading for Alshon Jeffery, but that's all that comes to mind. (More on that later.) Signing Harvin doesn't preclude the Bills from calling up the Ed Eagans and Dez Lewises of the world, nor does it preclude them from signing some dude off another team's practice squad. If (when?) Harvin flames out, those kind of moves will still be in play. But Harvin has more upside than a Lewis or Eagan type. And, since he was with the team last year, he has more familiarity with the offense than most options would. I'll go on record as saying I don't expect much impact from Harvin - but I'll be happy if I'm wrong. I think the most likely scenario is that he makes a couple of nice plays, but doesn't do much consistently, and then gets injured at some point, or possibly phased out if Watkins & Woods both get healthy. But even in that scenario, how is that worse than any of the other options available to the Bills? Do people really think there's some star receiver out there waiting to be signed? Lastly, re: Alshon Jeffery. At the right price, I wouldn't have minded a trade for him, but it's not even close to a guaranteed success. First, he's been very injury-prone the last couple years. Second, he doesn't know our offense at all. Third, it would cost draft picks to get him, and maybe more than he's really worth. (If Chicago made him available, but only for a 1st or 2nd round pick, I don't think that's worth it.) And finally, he's a free agent after the year. If he walks, you might get a comp pick for him (as long as you don't plan to sign any free agents), and that could be good, especially if it's basically the same pick you traded for him. If you sign him, that's a lot of $ tied up in an injury-prone player, and could cause problems with Watkins - I doubt either guy would be happy being the 2nd-highest paid WR on his team. Having said all that, if they traded a 4th or lower for Jeffery, I'd say it's worth the downside, but I get why that might not have been possible.

Poor Fitz.

I'm late to this thread, but just wanted to show my appreciation for a classic.

I'm sure Felton will catch on somewhere else, and I wish him the best, but I'm not very surprised or disappointed by this. You can't give a FB the most expensive contract at his position unless you're going to play him a lot. I don't recall the playtime stats from last year, but the Buffalo News reported Felton's a few times - it was something like 12% of snaps. Way too low to merit his salary, whatever it was. I tend to agree with NoSaint, that Felton was part of Plan A, which was semi-scrapped once Shady became available.

I would add that Dion Lewis is NE's starting RB in pass formations, and his backup is James White. Couple of softballs to start with, but I'll confess that I don't know any other team's backups on defense.

I was going to reply with something flippant like, "if we need someone to beat the crap out of women, I'm sure we can find a cheaper option," but I like this response a lot more. Hardy is either a monster, a tragic figure, or both. But even if you don't care morally about employing such a person, it's still a bad idea just on the selfish front. Hardy would be a negative asset. Classic fan logic - can't blame a guy for trying.

Exactly. I get the sense that Roman would ideally prefer to play a 2nd TE or FB much more often than a 3rd WR, but he wants a lot of different personnel groupings regardless. It's hard to say for sure who played more, the "3rd WR" or "2nd TE", because Hogan started a few games due to injury, and Harvin/Woods were kind of the co-3rd WR the first couple of games. Plus Mulligan went from 2nd TE to cut, with an O-lineman sometimes replacing him. I took a quick look at snap counts last year, and per-snap, the Bills averaged 2.33 WRs, 1.28 TEs, 0.27 FBs, and 5.10 OL. That doesn't just mean that we ran 3-wide sets 33% of the time, because we ran some 0, 1, and 4 WR sets, but I feel confident in saying we had 2 or fewer WRs on the field [EDIT] at least half the time. Last year (and this year, unless Dray turns out to be better than I expect), our non-Clay TEs were really bad. Like, probably should've been a 3rd or 4th TE level. I think we all overrated Gray because of the way he burst into our consciousness with his first 2 catches, and because he's a good guy with an interesting backstory. And when Harvin was still healthy, our WR corps was pretty good. Even after he and Goodwin went down, it was still (IMO) much more talented top to bottom than our TE corps. And yet Roman still played a 2nd TE (or Felton or Kouandjio) at least as much as he played a 3rd WR. Other than Martellus Bennett, I don't recall seeing any TEs out there this offseason that would really move the needle, so I'm not upset with the Bills FO or anything. But I think that as long as we're running this offense, it makes sense to think of the 2nd TE as at least as much of a starter as the 3rd WR. I think if we ever get 2 starting-caliber TEs, you'll see them both play 60+% of the snaps.

Agreed -- it's not like the Bills' staff was the source of the diagnosis or anything. Having said that, I like this pick even more now!