
khlax3
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Everything posted by khlax3
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I like that we finally went with a young guy and not an older vet on a 1 year deal. for those knocking it he is 25 year old 3rd round pick who has proven he can play in the league. Everyone keeps saying draft olineman but I would rather pay olineman who are proven in the league and use the draft to find impact playmakers
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Thank you! It drives me nuts when year after year people say we need 5-6 million for draft picks. Here is the breakdown for the draft: Round 1- 2.2 million Round 2- 1.1 million Round 3- 955k Round 4- 894k Round 5- 844k Round 6- 749k Total- 6.7 million but each player knocks another player out of the top 53 so you need to reduce the total y a minimum of 750k for each player they replace so the actual total for signing draft picks would be 2.2 million
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1. Bijon Robinson RB 2. Jack Campbell LB 3. Darnell Washington TE 4. Jaxon smith njigba WR 5. Joey Porter JR 6. Peter Skoronski OL 7. Steve Avila OL 8. Michael Meyer TE 9. Antonio Johnson S 10. John Michael Schmitz OL late rd: 1. Dante stills DT 2. Bryce Ford Wheaton WR 3. Elijah Higgins WR
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I think Jarvis Landry is a real possibility in the slot. He is a good blocker and reliable slot target. He has a connection to our WR coach and there were rumors bills were interested last year. Can likely be had for 2.5 million a year and would be a good addition to go with shakir. Also need to draft a WR early
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Andre Dillard- former 1st rd pick, still young, didn’t play much since eagles have good line. Would be solid swing tackle and completion for brown. Won’t cost much D’ontae Foreman- big back that can be a good duo with cook. 2-3 year deal around 3-3.5 per year Nate Davis- young, rated higher than both powers and risner, projected around 7 million per year Jarvis Landry- good slot receiver and physical blocker. Had down year due to injury and poor qb situation. WR coach from college is now Bills WR coach. Played for 1 year 3 million last year so something in the 2-3 million range. Odell Beckham JR- give gabe competition, know the players on the team want him, reunite with prior coach and potentially Landry. I think something like 2 year 15 million plus incentives would get it done Shaq Lawson- I bring him back on a cheap deal Bobby Okeroke- young, productive can likely be had for reasonable price
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Bryce Ford Wheaton from WVU ran a 4.38 he is 6-4 221 lbs. I watched him play in every game at WVU and he showed a ton of promise but never put it all together (their coaching has been awful). This is a guy that could be a late round pick to eventually replace gabe next year. (Just to be clear I don’t think this is the solution I think we should also either sign a FA or draft a WR in the first 2 rounds as well.) This would be a nice wr group that is young and cheap: Diggs Davis Paris Campbell (cheap FA) shakir Jalen hyatt Bryce ford Wheaton
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I know your trying to bash Beane's draft record here and there have been some misses and not enough impact player however I think your off on what your trying to prove here. If your trying to prove he is a bad drafter you need to factor in all of his picks regardless if they are still here or not. You can question their judgement on guys like McCloud, Teller, Phillips, Hodgins on if they used the player correctly or should have been resigned but they should still get credit for drafting them. Overall by my take Bean has only drafted 1 elite play (that is not enough even though they have drafted at the end of the draft and this is their biggest problem). 2019 was a poor draft and is what is really putting the bills in a tough spot. The guys in that draft should be entering their prime and making and impact on the team now. In order for the team to take the next step the coaches and Beane need to do a better job once they are drafted of evaluating the talent they have and utilizing them correctly (Hodgins, Teller, even Moss looked decent in Indy when he played). They need more of the good players they draft to be elite they get good contributions from picks but not top end talent. 1 Elite Player 8-9 good players 5 Average players 4 Solid Backup level players 10 bad players (all bad players expect Ford where late round picks) 2018 Allen - elite Edmunds- Good Phillips- Good Teller -Good Mccloud -Average T Johnson - good Proehl - Bad 2019 Oliver - average/good Ford - Bad Singletary - good Knox - good Joseph - Bad J Johnson - bad (although for the round he was picked was 4 phase special teams player) D Johnson- bad Sweeney - bad 2020 Epenesa - backup quality (I agree with this but he had a 1/2 sack less than Josh Allen and Phillips on Miami who most consider good to elite) Moss- backup quality Davis - good Fromm - bad Bass - good Hodgins- average D Jackson - average (I'm not as down on Dane as some of you) 2021 Rousseau - good Basham - backup Brown - average Doyle - backup Stevenson- bad Hamlin - backup Wildgoose- bad Anderson- bad
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The bills will only need 2-2.5 million to sign their rookies. They currently have picks in the following rounds with the following cap hits below. That totals around 6.7 million however each one of those 6 picks will knock off a bottom level contract from the roster which would wipe out about 4.5 million of the 6.7 above. 1st round- $2.3 million cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $1.55 M 2nd round- $1.1 million cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $355k 3rd round- $950k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $205k 4th round- $850k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $105k 5th round- $745k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $0k 5th round- $745k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $0k
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Given the 3 year rule. Analyzing the Bills 2020 draft..
khlax3 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don’t think AJE Epenesa is great but as a 3rd or 4th DE he is fine. His first 2 years he struggled but the Bills wanted him to change his weight and how he plays so not sure how much blame you can put on him. Now that he has finally got to where the bills want him he had 6.5 sacks as a backup. Guys like Jalen Phillips and Josh Allen (Jac) who many on this board say are very good both had 7 sacks as full time starters. -
I think Hines will be back and his contract will be re-worked. They will add a year or 2 to the contract and give him some guaranteed money to reduce his cap hit. He provides value as a KR/PR/RB. If you let him and singletary go you need to go out and sign at least 2 running backs. I would expect to see a running back room of cook- cap hit 1.3 Hines - 3 million bigger back vet around 2 to 2.5 million cap space
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100% agree with you. I think he can be had for a reasonable price and he is still young. He instantly upgrades the #2 and #3 with Davis moving to the 3 over McKenzie. I would still take a bigger size/speed WR in the 2nd or 3rd to compete with gabe and then take over for him once he hit free agency.
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Here are some middle round WR take take a look at that give a nice blend of speed and size if you double dip in the draft: WR A.T Perry 6-5 210lbs (wake Forest) 4.56 40 time projected round 3 WR Cedric Tillman 6-3 215lbs (Tennessee) 4.52 40 time projected round 2 WR Andrei Iosivas 6-3 200lbs (Princeton) 4.50 40 time projected round 3-4 WR Elijah Higgins 6-3 235 (Stanford) 4.55 40 time projected round 3-5 WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper 6’ 173 (Fresno) 4.45 40 time projected round 4-6 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton 6-3 224 (WVU) 4.48 40 time projected round 5-7
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I like all the WR mentioned in the original post wanted to throw a few more names out if we double dip at WR that are day 2 or 3 picks that have good size/speed combinations: WR A.T Perry 6-5 210lbs (wake Forest) 4.56 40 time projected round 3 WR Cedric Tillman 6-3 215lbs (Tennessee) 4.52 40 time projected round 2 WR Andrei Iosivas 6-3 200lbs (Princeton) 4.50 40 time projected round 3-4 WR Elijah Higgins 6-3 235 (Stanford) 4.55 40 time projected round 3-5 WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper 6-0 173 (Fresno) 4.45 40 time projected round 4-6 WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton 6-3 224 (WVU) 4.48 40 time projected round 5-7
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I personally like Max Duggan in the 5th from TCU. They got blown out by Georgia but he seems to have that similar gamer mentality that Allen has and if Allen got hurt I think Duggan's style of play would allow them to keep the offense the same
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We won 13 games this year and I would argue that this lineup is better in most positions QB- Same (backup probably worse but if Josh is hurt doesn’t matter) RB- Same ( could argue better with cook in year 2, Hines having an offseason, and foremen a better fit for what we need) TE- better (your adding a 2nd round athletic receiver who can also block and keeping everyone from this years team) WR- Better (Meyer is an upgrade at the 2, Davis is an upgrade to McKenzie at the 3, 2 young guys with upside and McKenzie who was your 3 now your 5 or 6) OL- Better (Dawkins- Same, Torrence- anyone is upgrade over saffold, Bates- probably a small downgrade to Morse but you get younger and cheaper at the position, Risner- upgrade to bates, Brown-Same (came off back surgery last year and missed all of camp so hopefully improves. Beane didn’t sound ready to move on)
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i like motor but he is projected to get a contract in the 5-6 million range. Foreman is projected in the 3-4 million range. This team is going to start making hard decision and find places to cut salaries. With a Hines restructure/extension you can pretty much pay for foreman without dipping into other cap space. I also think foreman gives us the big power back we have been missing to take some of the short yardage Carries off of Josh
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I am open to any lineman in RD 1 who can play guard. A lot of people want a WR in round 1 I think the better value will be at G or C. I think we are better off adding a decent vet WR who has proven themselves in the NFL while also still brining in a WR in rounds 2 or 3 to bring along as Davis will mostly likely leave in FA in 2024
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Based on Beane’s press conference that we are going to be tight on cap space and try to find value FA would you be satisfied with these upgrades on offense: Sign: Dalton Risner OG (6-8 million cap hit) D’Ontae Foreman (3 million cap hit) Jacobi Meyer (8 million cap hit) Quesenberry- Vet min Boettger- Vet Min Draft: RD 1 OG O’Cyrus Torrence (6-5 347) RD 2 TE Luke Musgrave (6-5 250) RD 3 WR Elijah Higgins (6-3 234) Cut- Morse (saves 5.6 mil) QB- Allen, Late Rd Rookie RB- Cooke, Hines, Foreman, Gilliam TE- Knox, Musgrave, Morris WR- Diggs, Meyer, Davis, Shakir, Higgins, McKenzie OL- Dawkins, Torrence, Bates, Risner, Brown (Depth: Doyle, Quesenberry, Boettger, Late Rd Tackle)
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Nice write up. I think the bills will make changes but I can’t see it being this drastic. Here are my thoughts: LT- Dawkins (he seems like one of those guys beane and McDermott aren’t going to move on from) LG- Bates (he played best at LG and Dawkins also played his best with bates best to him) C- I think Mitch is back for one more year and the following year they either draft a center or slide bates over) RG- Vorhees (2nd rd pick) RT- Juan Taylor (young FA signing) Depth- Brown- becomes your 6th oline/blocking TE. I also suggested in another thread a move to guard could benefit him Doyle- got time at guard and tackle in preseaon Quesenberry- Bring him back at vet minimum gives decent depth at 4 positions Nick Broeker- draft 4th round tackle ole miss Ike Boettger- resign vet min type deal
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I don’t see the bills giving up on brown but he has struggled at RT. It’s not common for a G to be 6-8 but they did have Doyle inside during camp this year some so they were willing to do it. Brown seems to struggle out in space even though he is super athletic. could a move to compete at guard help him so he is not on an island outside? Seems like it might be worth exploring because he is not cutting it at RT. At 6-8 311lbs and a RAS score of 10 if he could drop a few lbs could he also play that Lee smith blocking TE role for this team
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2023 Offseason Primer: State of the Franchise
khlax3 replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall
Joe Marino reported on his podcast that Leslie Frazier's contract expires at the end of the season. This could give McDermott/Beane to out they need to move on. Rather than firing him which would be hard to do since his defenses are ranked high. They could just not renew the contract and state both Frazier and the Bills are looking for new opportunities. -
2023 Offseason Primer: State of the Franchise
khlax3 replied to MAJBobby's topic in The Stadium Wall
I started a post this morning very similar to this but it got lost in the shuffle with so many topics popping up this morning. I was planning on going position by position and its a lot of work so I more than happy if you want to take on that work! Here is the topic from this morning on the RB room. Hopefully you can use the info here when you get to your RB primer: -
Every few days I plan to post an in depth look at each position group prior to FA and the draft. 1st up is running backs: 2022 Roster Devin Singletary (Age: 25 5-7 203lbs) -177 rush 819yds 5td -38 rec 280 yds 1td James Cook (Age: 25 5-11 190lbs) -89 rush 507 yds 2 td -21 rec 180 yds 1td Nyheim Hines (Age: 26 5-9 198lbs) -6 rush -3 yds -5 rec 53 yards 1td Reggie Gilliam (Age: 25 6-0 244lbs) - 0 rush -8 rec 69 yds td Tawain Jones (Age: 34 6-0 190lbs) -No stats 2023 Roster James Cook (3 year 4.7 mil left) -1.3 million cap hit for 2023 Nyheim Hines (2 year 9.1 mil left) -4.7 million cap hit for 2023 Reggie Gilliam (2 year 4.6 mil left) -2 million cap hit for 2023 Devin Singletary- FA Tawain Jones- FA Summary: The bills would probably like to resign singletary but he will likely get more money than they can spend on the position for a player who is not a playmaker. It’s finally time to let jones walk away. They need to stop investing in special teams guys who provide no value in offense or defense. My prediction: They will extend Hines and provide some guaranteed money (he has none left of current contract). They will hopefully utilize him more on offense and also he is an elite return man. I think they will sign a reasonable veteran that would be cheaper than singletary to fill out the room as they have gone to the draft several times and I don’t see them spending more picks on a back: FA options: -Jeff Wilson (Age 28 6-0 213lbs) -Samaje Perine (Age 27 5-11 235lbs) -D’Ontae Foreman (Age 26 6-1 236 lb) Jamal Williams (Age 27 6-0 224 lbs) Next up: Quarterback