dave mcbride

3:55 mark:

Outside of one example I can think of -- Rosen followed by Kyler Murray -- no one ever takes a QB the next year if the number two overall pick struggles (and Rosen was #10, a meaningful difference). Teams don't give up that easily--even though they often should. If they think the QBs outside of Young are weak, they shouldn't take one because then you're tied to that guy for longer than you think. It can simply prolong the agony. Basically, if you draft a guy at 2 and then give up on him right away, you're basically telling everyone that you're a moron and a bad judge of talent. That might actually be true, but it's human nature to not be willing to admit that. If Houston takes Stroud at 2, they aren't taking a QB early next season no matter how poorly he plays. Anyway, isn't the QB class for next year supposed to be a lot better than this one? If I'm Houston and am not sold on Stroud or the other QBs, I try to trade down and get another first for next year so that they have the ammo to maneuver for a QB in 2024.

I think his injury was a lot “cleaner” than White’s, which involved more than just the acl. Christ, they didn’t even know it was an acl tear until a while later. I expect him to be fine by the start of the season. He bounced back quickly after his earlier acl tear. He tore it 9 games into the 2013 season and was an all pro with 14 sacks in 2014.

Addison is the perfect for the Daboll system, and WR is a real need for them. The Bills would have to get ahead of them, I think.

The thing about JSN is that he missed almost an entire season due to a hamstring injury. Here's the thing about hamstring injuries -- for many but certainly not all athletes, they're not one-time only ailments but injuries that recur and recur. I'm looking at you, Sammy Watkins and Giancarlo Stanton. I have no idea whether JSN is going to have chronic hamstring issues, but it's a factor to consider.

Addison all the way for me. He's the best scheme fit by far and will likely be productive early on.

All true. My concern is that GMs think a lot like Daniel Jeremiah, who has him as the top WR and 13th overall: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2023-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-4-0. Given the positional value, I have a hard time seeing him last beyond 15, and the Bills simply don't have the ammo to trade up that far. But one can dream ...

If Addison makes it 20, I'm doing what I can to trade up if I'm Beane. I have a feeling he won't last, however ...

Watkins had so much talent -- far more than Johnson. When he first started, he looked absolutely amazing. He also completely abused Revis in 2015 in that game where the Bills knocked the Jets out of the playoffs. Of course, Revis was a worse player by then. Watkins was a head case, of course, but the real issue with him was the injuries. He has been missing time every season it seems due to hamstring issues.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, what really strikes me about this Addison highlight reel is the short-area footwork, which is very impressive. He soooo reminds me of Diggs, and I truly believe the Bills value players like him in their scheme over guys like Jaylin Hyatt and Quenton Johnston:

Hurts really transformed himself into a very good player. I was not a believer either when he was in college or in his first couple of seasons in Philly, but I am now.

Another comment about Addison: I think the Bills like the Pitt program, which does produce a lot of pros. In 2021, against the second ranked defense in college football that season (Clemson), Addison had 5 catches for 84 yards and a TD in a 27-17 win. I'm pretty sure he was matched up against Andre Booth, who was a second round pick. Point is, he produced vs a top-end defense with a top-shelf college corner. Booth is on the Vikings and missed the last 11 games because of a meniscus tear in week 6. And the Bills certainly aren't going to fault Addison for transferring to USC. It made a lot of sense.

He completely smoked Revis on that play, btw. That was discussed after the game and fed the narrative about how his very unorthodox route running (he was actually a unique player in that sense) often left Revis flummoxed. That was a real thing.

I think Addison is that player - a guy who can legit play inside and outside. He's a bit of a Diggs clone in his skill set (elite separator with top-of-the-route twitchiness along with a very large route tree for a college player).

I think Addison is that guy. He gets open and is good at creating the separation necessary to run Daboll's windows passing scheme. The Bills don't want contested catch guys -- they want guys who naturally get open (because they're great route runners with elite short-area quickness) and don't HAVE to contest the catch. I will not be shocked if they trade up for Addison. I'm not too concerned about his size either. He is the type of WR the Bills truly covet -- a natural separator: https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/jordan-addison-f4990987-eb16-4e7d-85ae-2f8d36289bbd/. PS - it's why they really wanted Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was historically one of the best separators of the past decade in terms of measured distance of separation on a per pass basis. Diggs is also elite in that category.

Regardless, McDuffie was the better player last season.

Awesome stuff, Bill! I think the corners may go earlier than you project and I don’t love the Bills’ pick, but all in all this is great. Incidentally, did you see this Athletic piece in which they do a re-draft of the 2022 first round? I thought it was good: https://theathletic.com/4408273/2023/04/14/nfl-redraft-2022-sauce-gardner/

Not the ridiculous PI on Roby-Coleman that kept the Jags alive?

Don't get too down on yourself - he got hurt with a major injury and has missed 25 out of 50 games. You can't predict that.

In 1991, that was without question a catch and fumble. They changed the rule to making a football move decades later. That was always called a fumble back then. The Bills didn't get away with one.

I edited my post above. He's missed 25 out of 50 games and they had to decide on the fifth year option by May 1. He's starting-caliber, though, and since CBs are hard to come by ... I dunno.

What happened to him? I thought he was going to be an absolute stud. Did he lose a step because of his injury? Edit: I now see that he's missed 25 out of a possible 50 games in his three-year career. Maybe they just felt the availability issue outweighed whatever upside he had. They also had to make a decision on the fifth year by May 1.

Good. He's a solid vet contributor.

Von Miller’s acl tear isn’t that bad and he’ll be both healthy and very productve relatively early on.

It seems to me that Allen was quite a bit different. He elevated a bad, low talent team into a winning one while Richardson is a .500 qb for a program that regularly pumps out NFL players. In the four years prior to Allen becoming the starter, they went 4-8, 5-7, 4-8, and 2-10 (the year immediately prior to him starting). With him as starter, they went 8-6 and 8-5. The talent on Wyoming is leagues worse than Florida's. Florida went 6-7 in both years that Richardson started. In the three years prior to Richardson starting, Florida went 10-3, 11-2, and 8-4. Lamar's team won when he was there. And largely because of him. Florida under Richardson? Not so much. They actually became much worse after he took over.