dave mcbride

I dunno … Randy Mueller knows far more than you or I do. He literally has 35 years of NFL experience in draft rooms. You and I are just message board dorks whose knowledge is all second or third hand.

But he played lights out in the second half vs Detroit and won the game for them. Honestly, if SF stops a fourth and 2-3 on their own side of the field in OT, he’s the SB hero. He’s better than you give him credit for.

If this article is to be trusted, high school football participation had a big increase last year (although since it's post-pandemic the numbers are going to be skewed): https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/. I think participation in most team sports has declined. A lot of it is a function of kids only playing sport as opposed to multiple ones, like in the past.

It appears that despite the numbers being thrown around, no WR is getting close to $30 million per, at least yet. From Florio, who is good on this sort of issue (althoug certainly not every type of issue): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/top-receiver-deals-definitely-arent-what-they-seem-to-be.

All of the smoke signals we've seen are pointing this way, to be fair.

Exactly. Maybe Harbaugh has views on a bunch of big ten players that are different from the league consensus, for instance.

I get your point, sort of, but Mueller is not what I'd call a draftnik. He worked as an NFL personnel person / exec for 35 years, from Seattle (16 years) to NO to Miami to the Chargers.

Some interesting quotes from anonymous GMs in here: https://wapo.st/3TXKgyG (I made this a gift article and it should be accessible to all). 'Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel (49ers) “One of them won’t be back there,” the GM said. The exec said: “Personally, I’d be shocked if they don’t move one. When you study the model of how they roster build and structure their contracts, and with the quarterback being up in a year, I don’t think they will pay them both. … And if Deebo was the guy to go, I think he’d already be gone.” Another GM opined that he believes Aiyuk would have already secured his new contract if it was going to come from San Francisco. “I think Aiyuk is the one to watch,” that GM, also sniffing around on wide receivers, said. Another exec said: “I don’t think they’re going to get everything they’ll want for him [Aiyuk] because of what you’re going to have to pay him. But they have to listen.”'

I thought this comment was interesting. The Bills have five picks before 150 and five after that threshold. ”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.” https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/

Trade down again!

My hope (not based on any evidence) is that he's the next Eric Moulds. Moulds sucked his first two seasons because he was lost out there but blossomed to one of the best receivers in the league in his third season. Moulds was a physical specimen, and so is Elam.

Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs now have a higher premium than they did in 2010. He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands.

Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added. Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.

Here's one that sort of fits: the Ravens gave up a pretty fair amount to AZ for Anquan Boldin (3rd and 4th round picks) and promptly handed him a big-money extension. He was absolutely money for them in 2012, especially in the postseason that year: 22 receptions for 380 yards and 4 TDs (and 104 yards plus a TD in the Super Bowl). He should be in the HOF, in my opinion -- his lifetime stats are crazy good. The Eagles gave Alshon Jeffrey a one-year $14 million contract after he came off the franchise tag in Chicago, and he was one of the highest paid receivers in the league in 2017. He signed a 4-year extension for $52 million before that season ended too (in early December 2017). He had a pretty big postseason that year and scored a TD in the SB.

I hear you, but with these vehicle cases, unless there's a corpse and a bottle of Hennessy involved, pro athletes seem to almost always evade the jailhouse. Also, it's Texas, and he's a local guy who was a star for SMU. Call me cynical, but ...

Not saying this will happen, but this would be an interesting wild card! https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/could-a-falcons-vikings-tampering-settlement-be-announced-just-before-round-one-of-the-draft

I guess I would trade back (out of the first) at this point. Regarding trading that 2025 second rounder, I'm looking at this - https://walterfootball.com/draft2025charlie.php - and noticing a lot of pass rushing talent going early. I could see the Bills being all in on that position come 2025 and will want the draft capital to move up. They'll need to replace Von Miller.

I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt he goes to jail. Seems like a Marshawn Lynch sort of thing (although I realize there are differences in the cases), and nothing happened to him after his vehicular mishap except getting traded and subsequently becoming an NFL legend.

Brady came across as very likable in The Dynasty, I gotta say.

Yep. Over his final six games of the regular season, Rice had 43 catches on 56 targets for 518 yards and 3 TDs. That's 9.25 yards per target and a 77 percent catch rate. It also extrapolates to 121 catches for 1,467 yards and 9 TDs over a 17 game season. In four playoff games, he had 26 catches on 33 targets and 262 yards plus 1 TD. Point is, young players do actually get better and more acclimated over the course of a season. Looking at the pictures of the more recent players on this list, you definitely begin to see evidence of Parcell's "planet theory" for the NT position. Most of the more recent guys are absolute monsters, size-wise: https://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-best-nose-tackles-in-nfl-history.html.

Calvin Ridley is elite, as evidenced by his huge contract this offseason. He also made Keir Elam look absolutely terrible last season. Great post, though!

Brock Purdy has flat out proven that he is a good NFL qb. The better comp for your argument is Mac Jones.

I completely agree.

I get this, but it’s more of “watch the actual games” thing for me. Chase is uncoverable and outside of Tyreek Hill the most dangerous receiver in the league. He draws the best cover people and still shreds teams. And his stats weee depressed this year by having an inferior QB throwing to him for most of the season, whether it was an injured Burrow or a backup. I feel extremely confident in saying that there is not one GM, head coach, or OC in the league who would choose St. Brown over Chase.

another write-up of the leading prospects, this time from The Ringer: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/4/9/24124742/best-wide-receivers-2024-nfl-draft-class-marvin-harrison-jr-malik-nabers-rome-odunze