Estro

If we don't resign him now Tyrod plays for $3M this season. If he plays lights out we give him the franchise tag (if unable to workout a long term deal) for about $21 or $22 million. So bills have Tyrod for 2 years $25M as it stands now, with the ability to not commit one dollar more if he plays terribly this year. If they decide to rip up this deal and replace it with 2 years $30M they are not only giving him $5M extra but they are locking into next year before seeing this year's results. It makes absolutely no sense. The only way a deal like this becomes favorable for the Bills is to add a team option 3rd year to the deal that is totally unguaranteed. And that 3rd year would need to be south of $18M for me to want to do it. Now you have Tyrod for let's say: $12M in '16 $18M in "17 $18M in '18 Total 3 years $48M As opposed to: $3M in '16 $21M in '17 (franchise tag) $25.5M in '18 (franchise tag) Total 3 years $49.5M At least in this scenario the Bills are saving $1.5 M, but even with that, I personally wouldn't want to do that deal because I'm not protected against Tyrod totally imploding, as the Bills currently are. I really think they should let this season play out.

Question would it be a 2 year $30M extension. Or would they rip us this year and start the 2 year $30M now. If it's the first the Bills are essentially getting a 3 year $33M deal which is terrific. If it's the latter the Bills are giving Tyrod a huge raise and are not really getting anything in return. Can someone please clarify which it is?

I hope this is Sal's logic and not the Bills because it's terrible business. The Bills currently have Tyrod under contract for an extremely team friendly deal for this year. Why would you possibly give him a huge raise this season, with no commitment for future years, other than to be just nice and throw around Terry Pegula's money? If he's going to get a significant raise for this year than he needs to commit to at least 2 additional years for maybe $15-$16 million per year. It's not smart to give someone a huge raise just because, and if it were to do down this way I'd have serious concerns about not only Whaley but the Pegulas. You would think they would be better negotiators than that. Let's assume the following: Tyrod plays out his contract this year for $3M Tyrod gets franchise tag for '17 and makes $21M Tyrod gets franchise tag for '18 and makes $25M What we essentially have is a 3 year $49M deal. That's just under $16.5M per year, which is a great deal assuming he's playing well, and if he totally craps the bed you don't need to give him the franchise tag so it protects the team against an implosion. Obviously, it's not ideal to absorb huge franchise tag cap hits, which is why the Bills are probably eager to do an extension, but in no way should the Bills offer more than that $49M over the first 3 years. Just bad business deal if they do, which they did do with Shady after trading for him, so you never know.

Look at it this way: If Tyrod plays out his deal for $3M and plays well, he'll likely be looking for $18-$20M per year. Say the Bills gave him 4 years $72M. If you factor in this year at $3M, that would be a total of 5 years - $75M. What I'm trying to say is a $15M a year deal now is the same as a $20M a year deal next year, due to his low price in '16. Tyrod's agent might prefer the optics of a $20M per year deal, but it's going to be tough to turn down a hefty amount of guaranteed $ now. It sounds to me like Tyrod and his agent are prepared to blink. 4 years for $66M, is what I predict.

Bills are in the power of position now. They won't be next offseason when they'll be forced to either pay him 0r tag him. I understand the dilemma because they have him for such a low price this year. I think if he gets a new deal soon it will reflect a healthy hometown discount. Probably in the $15- $16M range. If he plays good this year he'll likely be asking for $19-$20M

Gilmore is a $12M/year CB. Problem is Norman got $15M/year with tons of guarantees. So, Gilmore on the open market is probably going to command at least $14M per, and I don't think the Bills will go there with him. If Bills don't use franchise on Tyrod, Gilmore will be a prime candidate for the tag next year. The tag will likely be a touch over $14M in '17. He's set to make $11M this year. So we control his next 2 years for $25M, if we can use the tag on him next year, which seems like a fair value. For a player that's missed 3-4 games per year, I'd be hesitant to do a long term deal with Stephon. Let him play out '17 and then see where you're at. By then maybe you decide to give an extension to Darby and let Gilmore walk, picking up a 3rd round comp. pick in the process.

I'm not a fan of the John Murphy show. I'm also not a fan of his GameDay calls. I actually think he seems like a good guy and he's talented at what he does, it's just not my taste. I know Mike Schopp gets a lot of grief, but I think he's great. I feel like I've learned a lot by listening to his show, even if it not always positive. Why should it be anyways, the Bills haven't made the playoffs since 99. Murphys show, on the other hand is just so vanilla and boring. You can definitely tell the Bills sign his checks.

Murph is a thumbs down for me. Too much of a cheer leader, too vanilla and boring. My favorites on WGR are Schopp, Matthew Coller and Bulldog. Say what you want about Schopp, but he's interesting to listen to. His being negative toward the Bills often, isn't a drawback IMO, it's just him being honest. Most the time his takes are well thought out and intelligent, even if they aren't popular. Matthew Coller is the hidden gem on WGR. Very smart, very analytical, you feel like a smarter fan after you listen to him. Not a big Jeremy White fan either. Maybe it has something to do with his constant liberal political whining on twitter.

I think the Josh Norman deal handed out by the Redskins really screwed up things between the Bills and Gilmore. I think the sweet spot for a Gilmore deal was $12.5M-$13.5M per year. With Norman getting $15M per year and a massive amount of his contract guaranteed (he gets $36.5M in the first 2 years of the deal.....INSANITY!), I suspect Gilmore and his agent are probably asking for the moon. I don't think Gilmore is worth the moon, BTW. He's a nice player and one you want on your team, but the Bills have the leverage in this situation. Let him play out this year under his cap hit of $11.08M. You can always use the franchise tag on him next season which will be around $14M. Worst case scenario we have him for the next 2 years at roughly $25M. Sounds good to me. The Bills would be smart to control the asset, that is Gilmore, for the next 2 seasons at $25M. No reason for a big extension now, who knows in 2 years maybe you decide to extend Darby and have another solid CB on the come up and you can let Gilmore walk......and fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick in the process by letting him walk. Don't forget Gilmore has missed 11 games the past 3 seasons. I wouldn't call him injury prone, but consistently missing a handful of games each season the past 3 years would make me even more hesitant to shell out top dollar right now. Just doesn't make good business sense on the Bills part.

Probaby did something stupid that he shouldn't have been doing on his own time huh?

Then why wait to get the surgery done? That's what I don't understand. With an injury that might take 5-6 months to recover from every week matters and the Bills just wasted 2 and a half weeks. This makes me think that the Bills intentions were to get through this year and have the surgery after the season, as has been reported. The fact that he got hurt doing a swim move vs. a tackling dummy calls into question, how the Bills were so misled to think he could make it through an entire season.

And 1 is guaranteed to land on IR after his first route!

Jahri Evans have anything left in the tank? Played RG for most of his career. Not sure the Bills are looking for help at G, considering they wanted Slauson to play T. Too bad we missed out on Slauson.....he def. woud've upgraded the line probably for a fairly reasonable price too.

Glenn's cash flow is: Year 1 - $19M Year 2 - $11M Year 3 - $11.25M Total - $41.25M Compare that to the other top deals and you can see Cordy is #2 in the league, second only to Trent Williams cash flow: Terron Armstead: Year 1: $11.72M Year 2: $9.3M Year 3: $10.3M Total: $31.32M Year 1: $15.5M Year 2: $16.97M Year 3: $11.5M Total: $43.97M Cap tip to Glenn and his agent, I think they did a real nice job here. Side comment, a contract this massive and with this much money on the frontside of the contract makes me feel supremely confident the Bills will have a deal done with Gilmore in due time. It's very tough to turn down $30M over 2 years in a sport where you can injure your body and be done for good. Gilmore has made just over $12M over his career, it'll be tough to turn down a $18M signing bonus, which is probably what the Bills will offer.

We've heard Glenn will get $19M in year 1 and $11M in year 2. My best guess is that Glenn got a $13-$15M signing bonus with the rest in the form of a base salary in '16 to get him to the $19M that's been reported. So his cap hit will either be $8.6M if he got a $13M signing bonus or $7M if he receives a $15M SB. So expect a cap savings in the neighborhood of $5-6M I think Glenn's contract will look like this: 2016- $13M signing bonus, $6M base salary, $8.6M cap hit 2017- $4M roster bonus, $7M base salary, $10.6M cap hit 2018- $10M base salary, $13.6M cap hit 2019- $9.5M base salary, $13.1M cap hit 2020- $10.5M base salary, $14.1M cap hit As you can see my 5 year deal contains $60M, as Tyler Dunne reported it' actually a $60M deal with $5M in incentives to possibly push the deal to a total of $65M. And finally if the Bills are interested in keeping those '18-'20 cap hits down a bit they can simply reduce the size of the roster bonus in '17 or the size of the singing bonus this year.

#'s on Terron Armstead's deal are in: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/terron-armstead/ Still awaiting the breakdown of Glenn's contract.

Not sure if anyone posted this yet. If so, I apologize. Little insight into the new LB. http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/19/nfl-draft-reggie-ragland-alabama-film-breakdown-scouting-report

I think there are a of Bills fans that weren't enamored with the Rex Ryan hiring, myself included. I wanted Hue Jackson, who was rumored to believe he had the Bills job, making me think he was probably the Pegulas #2. I'll be watching him closely in Cleveland, I really believe in him.

I think the Bills value Gilmore a lot. I personally like Gilmore, I think he's a nice player.......that said, I don't think he's a stud. If we were able to get him for $11-$12M per I'd be happy to retain his services. The problem is I think he and his agent know they can command a lot more than that on the open market and they are probably right. Josh Norman just signed a 5 year - $75M deal ($15M per). What's even scarier is he gets $20M in year 1, & $17M in Year 2 of that deal. $37M in the first 2 years is obscene. I think that deal is going to create quite a divide between the Bills and Gilmore because Gilmore probably views himself as better than Norman and the Bills probably have no intentions of spending that type of loot on Gilmore. In the end the Bills will want to keep Gilmore's contract as close to Janoris Jenkins contract, which was just signed with the Giants for 5 years - $62.5M ($12.5M/per). Gilmore's camp will anchor in at Revis/Patrick Peterson money which is roughly $14M per year. The compromise will probably be in the $13M per year neighborhood, perhaps with some incentives that can push it to $14M per, so the agent can publicize an inflated deal to the press. It's a lot of money, but in year or 2 it'll probably look a lot better as the cap continues to rise.

I agree with the sentiment that Shaq is slow off the snap. It's one of the many reasons Greg Cosell, of NFL Films was not high on Shaq Lawson as a prospect. I happen to really respect Cosell's opinion, he really delves into the film srudy, and I hope he's wrong, but I see a very average athlete. He appears to be stiff and slow as a pass rusher. I almost wonder if the Bills will want him to shed a few lbs. apparently he had some more juice in '14 when he was 15 lbs. lighter than he did in '15.

I can see Mitchell being a solid #2, with a chance to become a #1. Was pissed to see NE get him. NE also got one of my favorite "developmental" QB's in Brissett yesterday. There is something about him that makes me think he has a chance to be a starter in the NFL more so than many of the other QB projects.

Malcolm Mitchell is the apple of my eye of the WR's left on the board. Speed, Hands, Run after Catch, Tough, oh and Greg Cosell of NFL Films really likes him. Would make a helluva #2 for the Bills.

Astro I noticed Gil Brandt had Jacoby Brissett as his #64 rated prospect in the draft. I think he'll end up being a 3rd or 4th round pick. I'm pretty sure the Bills would have to take him with one of their 4th round draft choices if they had an interest in Brissett.

Another guy who Greg Cosell of NFL Films really likes: Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia Probably could be had in the 3rd-4th round. Very interesting prospect who has a lot of YAC potential.

Last year I remember how anemic our offense looked when Sammy Watkins went down for a couple of weeks. Luckily we had Percy for part of it, before he eventually went down to injury. Now, without Percy or Hogan, I think the Bills would be wise to snag a WR early in this draft if one the Bills value is available. Josh Doctson should be in consideration for the Bills at #19, IMO. He goes up and gets the football like no one else in this draft. He has that attack the football mentality and get it at its highest point, much like Deandre Hopkins had coming out of Clemson, which I love. Another guy I absolutely love is Sterling Shepard. He actually reminds me some of Percy Harvin. He would be a terrific slot WR, and I think he can even play on the outside as a #2 like Percy did. Not sure the Bills would consider Shepard at #19, but I don't think he'll be on the board when we pick in round 2..........so a trade down intrigues me. If we come away with Doctson or Shepard I think our offense can really take a big step forward.