As I've said before, "insiders" are mostly useful for providing information about goings-on. When it comes to evaluation, they're no better than anyone else because the draft and player development are crap-shoots, especially when there's little film on a player in real games. I'm sure your friend has whiffed on more than a few players in his time, but you probably haven't heard too much about that from him, or chose not to remember them. The best anyone can say here is "we'll see." He certainly came a HELL of a lot cheaper than the 9th overall pick, already has a year under his belt, and probably would have been picked higher than 9th overall, DEFINITELY higher than 22nd overall, this year.