RoscoeParrish

Not sure who this player is. Maybe Taron Johnson? Not drafted by Beane. Not drafted by Beane. These guys are all drafted by Beane. The conversation was about comparing Beane’s drafting to other teams. That’s why we started in 2018. I think Beane is a very good GM, personally. I think, again, if you stack up his resume against the Niners, Chiefs or Eagles (basically all the teams to play in multiple Superbowls since he’s been here), he’s closer to the bottom of that grouping instead of the top.

15 wasn’t their pick. It was the Dolphins pick they acquired earlier. That’s what I’m saying. Why hold that draft slot against them? Yes again, you see the point. We had pick 10 in 2017. We traded back for future firsts. That’s why the further you go back, it evens out. More years of picks and it includes our bad years where those higher picks were used to find supposedly the better players that we can’t seem to find at pick 25. I didn’t say anything about expectations about Cody Ford, I just said that if we had turned those 2 years of picking much higher than we do now into an All-Pro or two, Beane’s resume looks much better. I think it’s dishonest to say “we can’t find difference makers picking so late” while not considering the years we didn’t pick late.

You don’t have to do the work! I just thought it would be interesting, because the longer you go back, the more it corrects for draft position. Like Buffalo having 2 first rounders in the first 16 picks in 2018 or a top 10 pick in 2019. It’s not that we haven’t had those higher picks. It’s that other than Josh, they haven’t been truly great imo. If one of Tremaine/Oliver/Ford was All-Pro status, I think Beane’s resume looks quite different. I also don’t think it’s fair to hold it against GMs who were savvy enough to make trades to end up with higher picks. The Chiefs haven’t missed the playoffs in 10 years, but still got Mahomes at 10. The Eagles turned their one down year into multiple first rounders over the years.

Is Ed Oliver really “excellent?” He was a top 10 pick and the second DT off the board. Are we sure he’s lived up to his draft status? I’m fairly confident if you compared the Niners, Eagles and Chiefs drafts to our since 2017 you’d find a couple things: #1 the average draft position isn’t THAT different #2 all 3 teams have found more impact players than Buffalo As interesting as it is to compare us to the Buccaneers, I don’t really consider them an obstacle to winning a Super Bowl.

That’s true. We were also a 9 win team in 2017 and a 6 win team in 2018.

The Eagles traded for a lot of those top 10-15 picks FWIW.

They are talking about league years. This is all documented. Beane was Gettleman’s AGM. In fact, when they fired Gettleman, there was a ton of talk in Carolina that if Beane hadn’t left, he would have succeeded Gettleman. I don’t know how much influence Beane had on the moves made before he was officially hired. You seem to think you know that he was calling McDermott from the bathroom in the Panthers front office on draft night. I suspect that wasn’t the case. To jog your memory: https://billswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bills/2017/05/04/bills-interview-panthers-asst-gm-brandon-beane-as-front-office-candidate/79737987007/ “On Wednesday, Buffalo confirmed they conducted an interview with Brandon Beane, the Assistant General Manager of the Carolina Panthers, a position he's held since 2015 after spending seven years as the team's Director of Football Operations.” https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/8/15578964/buffalo-bills-interviewing-brian-gutekunst-general-manager-job-packers-sean-mcdermott/comment/427780093 “The Bills will reportedly interview Brian Gutekunst, the director of player personnel for the Green Bay Packers, for their vacant general manager position on Monday” So to recap, the Bills interviewed 4 candidates for GM after the draft and after Whaley was fired, including Beane who of course got a second interview and the job, but we are expected to believe that he was secretly picking the FA’s for McDermott to sign 2 months prior? Dubious premise.

I think your timeline is off. Beane was employed and in the Carolina draft room that April of 2017. Beane wasn’t officially hired until May. Free Agency started in March.

I can’t speak for anyone, but I think you guys are disagreeing with a lot of folks is because you painting a moving target. First, it’s “we can bring his cap number down in 2025” Then, its “3 for $45M is barely more than Taylor’s contract” Then, it’s “if we structure it like JT’s contract, we can avoid dead money” Then, it’s “if we manipulate the cap numbers, and add a void year, we can cut him 3 years from now and only be on the hook for 2 years and $30ish million” The reason why AAV and guarantees are used for shorthand e v a l of contracts is because they aren’t THAT different from team to team. Some contracts are more team-friendly than others, sure. But if I don’t think Cook is worth $15M AAV in this climate, then “if we structure it like Taylor’s it’s really only 3 for $30M but we have to cut him in 2 years” isn’t super compelling imo.

Right. But everyone does this. Cook and his agent will surely negotiate for all of year one and probably most of year two being guaranteed. Otherwise, they won’t accept a completely silly fake contract. My suspicion is that they would sign 3 for $45M with 28M+ guaranteed today. We can manipulate the cap number from there, but that would still be the contract.

This isn’t really different than what everyone else does. Taylor signed 3 for $42M and can be cut in year 3 for 2.5M in dead cap and $13M in savings. I guess I’m really failing to understand all these “unique” ways to make Cook’s contract demands seem better that are really just industry standards. I like Cook a lot. I agree he’s very valuable to Buffalo. I won’t get bent out of shape if he signs for 3 for $45M. But if he signs for 3 for $45M, it’s 3 for $45M. It’s not secretly a 4 year deal or a super unique savvy 2 for 37M with a cuttable dead cap number after 2027. That’s just spin. All that matters is his years, his average, and his guarantees.

Saints winning 6+ games with a guy who is almost certainly not going to be their QB 2 years from now is just a bad move.

Why do we need his cap number in 2025 to drop? FA is basically over. If his cap number drops in 2025, where does that go? To 2026 and beyondz Didn’t you argue we dropped Bernard’s cap number too until I showed you that wasn’t true and also we are paying him exactly what he signed for cap and all? Also, why so hostile?

you are not gaining 2025 with the extension! He’s under contract. You are talking about “what really matters” but you were previously talking about how these extensions affect the cap. I just demonstrated that it doesn’t matter how you spin it, you are getting these players at their 2025 value regardless and then their cap implications is exactly what it says on the tin. Saying James Cook is signed for 4 for 12.5M AAV is total optics. The reality is that not extending Cook means he has a cap hit of $5M in 2025. Extending Cook at 3 for $45M means that he still has a cap hit of $5M in 2025 and then $45M spread out over the next 3 years (unless void years are used). Including his existing 2025 cap number to make his contract seem less than what it truly is, is probably the best example of “optics” possible. We have seen this the other way too. Jeudy had a massive guarantee number on his reported extension with Cleveland because they included his fifth year option guarantee of $13M that was present regardless. It made his agent look good. It was irrelevant to the reality. Tyreek Hill is about to fall off a cliff after a disappointing season imo.

AJ Brown complained about his targets all the way to the Super Bowl. Theres something in the water when it comes to WRs

Not really sure about these rankings. DL, safety and CB are very much question marks after the offseason. They have had significant investment but that doesn’t equal ability. I don’t think Hamlin + Rapp is top 20 in the NFL if that’s the way the room shakes out. More to the point, it’s very funny to me that in a topic that is largely about “should we invest more in WR” you rank the WR room like 10-20 spots below every other position group on the roster.

Taylor is often injured because there’s no one on his team, but I’m having an issue with correlation/causation? The point is the position is SUPER volatile. It has been for a while. Guys like Arian Foster could lead the league in rushing one year and disappear two years later. It has happened to legitimate All-Pro talent. Dalvin, Zeke, Gurley. You can say “well those were all individual circumstances” when all those dudes fell off a cliff, but what that demonstrates to me is that running backs fall particularly victim to circumstances that end their careers in the blink of an eye. There’s a reason it’s the lowest skill position player league-wide. It’s because they are short-term investments that don’t last and are very dependent on situation as a general rule. He’s asking for Shakir money when Shakir has a FAR and I mean VERY FAR better chance of actually finishing his deal in Buffalo.

feel like this is why paying RBs is a bad idea. Three years ago, JT was maybe the best back in football. Now, maybe Cook is in that top 5. things just change so fast at the position. The top 5 leading rushers in 2021 were Taylor, Chubb, Mixon, Cook and Najee. 2 are out of the league or almost out, Mixon (old) and Taylor (hurt often) are overpaid, and Najee was let go by the team that drafted him in the first. By 2027, imo the chance Cook is still a premier back is extremely low.

I think he will too, I’m just saying that contracts/cap management have consequences. David Edwards may be the best OG the Bills have had since Richie Incognito. Now OG isn’t a position I would love to overpay either but that’s part of the trade off. Gun to my head, I’d rather pay for Edwards than Cook.

Giving them signing bonus money is not equivalent to their cap hit. Bernard signed a deal reported for 4 for $42M. His cap hit for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029 equals….. $41.6M. With a void year worth $1.3M in 2030. So his cap hit over his 4 year extension, not including 2025, is exactly what his deal was signed for. There’s a reason why your mirage doesn’t work and no one says that. It isn’t a 5 year deal. He’s under contract in 2025 regardless. No one says DK Metcalf really signed a lesser deal because he was technically under contract for 1 year left. He signed a 4 year extension for $42M with 1 year left on his deal. He didn’t sign a 5 year deal for $42M.

We don’t know if Palmer has any business starting as WR2 or if Coleman does either at this point. this group hasn’t played and we have new additions. you would always take the new group that hasn’t played over the old group that has. Its like saying “who would you pick to win the Super Bowl, the 2023 Bills or the 2025 Bills?” We already know the result of one outcome.

I think we are having different conversations. I don’t mind the direction of the offseason at all. I’m just saying objectively, looking at the roster and the position groups that would most benefit from a good to very good player. QB - no HB - no WR - yes TE - maybe, but Kincaid is young OL - no DE - upgraded in offseason DT - upgraded in offseason LB - slight maybe CB - upgraded in offseason/draft S - yes That article quoted said the biggest need on the roster was WR. Phrased another way, like I did, is where would I take a top 15 player today. I think there’s a very good argument for WR, today. It’s not me bashing the offseason because I frankly think we needed a defensive overhaul. I look at the WR and safety groupings as “room for improvement,” aka they can be upgraded aka we need an upgrade there moreso than at running back or QB or the defensive needs that have already been addressed. It’s not “we should have taken a WR instead of Hairston,” its “we took all these defensive players, where else could we improve the roster.” Just my 2 cents.

He lines up 60% in the slot. I’m not sure his path there.

It all depends on their usage. I don’t think anyone foresaw Mack seeing the most snaps at WR last preseason. Could the Bills have a 4WR package with Davis/Palmer split wide and Coleman/Shakir inside? They could, but that won’t be anywhere close to their base package. Ditto for their 11 personnel, but Coleman in the slot over Shakir. There are ways to get creative with it, but my personal thoughts are that despite signing Palmer and having Coleman, I could see a world where Gabe is signed and plays 40-50% of the snaps on the boundary, even if he doesn’t get 40-50% of the targets. Over the course of the season, I imagine the top 3 WR’s in targets will be Shakir, Coleman and Palmer, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Gabe have games with more targets than Palmer, either.

No contracts are independent of other contracts in a salary cap league. Maybe he will leave, maybe he won’t, but signing Edwards will make paying Cook harder and vice versa. And I think Edwards is better than OCT and would be an actual huge blow to the IOL. The “grooming” of late rounders or UDFA to take over OL spots is kind of a myth at this point. We heard the same thing about Ike Boettenger and Rick Bates and both guys were just what they were, solid ninth or tenth OL depth and not much more.