
Einstein
Community Member-
Posts
10,696 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by Einstein
-
Browns hosting QB Joe Flacco for workout
Einstein replied to BillsFan619's topic in The Stadium Wall
He did have that one magical postseason 10 years ago. But outside of that one postseason, he has 13 TD’s and 10 INT’s playoffs. -
Im not seeing $55M at all. Maybe $40M (if you believe OTC). But let’s take $40M - that’ll be gone so fast our heads will spin. We have to replace Micah Hyde, DaQuan Jones, Leonard Floyd, Dane Jackson, Jordan Phillips, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Epenesa, Gabe Davis, Shaq Lawson, Cam Lewis, AND sign 9 draft picks. I also dont love the idea of restructuring Diggs. Diggs only has 3 years left on his contract after next season. Restructuring makes those last 3 years nearly impossible. We could free up $14M in cap space this off-season but then Diggs cap would be well over $30 million after that. His cap hit would be $31M in 2025, $32M in 2026 and $26M in 2027. Then what? And he would be untradeable and impossible to cut (ever), since his dead cap would be more than $20M every single yeargoing forward. I can almost guarantee the Bills don’t do this. If we replace all of the players we are losing with draft picks… we are going to be in for a tough year IMO.
-
Tompsett is often wrong. Just FYI. He has admitted to not even reading the balance sheet of how the cap is being formulated and just basing his numbers off what OTC speculates.
-
Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
Einstein replied to BuffaloBillyG's topic in The Stadium Wall
-
Anyone else have a good feeling about the Titans vs. Jags?
Einstein replied to JMM's topic in The Stadium Wall
Very true. But the Titans have looked bad all season. -
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Removing the vig lowers the Titans probability of pulling the upset (it lowers both teams in relation to the vig). I'll explain this below. I did have old odds for the games. Taking the updated odds of -190 for the Jags and +155 for the Titans, we have 100 / (155 + 100) = 39.22% the Titans win. You can then double check my formula and math by using an odds/probability calculator The Jags at -190 results in a formula of 190/(190 + 100) = 65.56% To remove the vig, you calculate the combined implied probability (the sum of both team's implied probabilities), which will be more than 100%, and in our case is 104.72. The extra 4.72 is the vig (here is a simplified equation): (100)-65.56+39.22 = 4.72. Then you divide each team's implied probability by this total to adjust for the vig. 65.52%/104.74% and 39.22%/104.74%. Therefore, here are the adjusted probabilities with the vig removed: 62.55% the Jaguars win and 37.45% the Titans win. The Ravens are also +155 now, which means both Ravens and Titans have the same probability at 39.22%. The Steelers sit at -190. Same probabilities and same math, equaling the same result. So we have a 37.45% the Titans win and a 37.45% chance the Ravens win. What you are doing is taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)). It's a fair take. We shall see what happens. . -
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
No idea how you figured that, but it’s not accurate. Steelers (-195) vs Ravens (+165) implies the Ravens (who we want to win), only have a 33.9% probability of victory. Jags (-265) vs Titans (+190) implies the Titans (who we want to win), only have a 22.9% probability of victory. I’m guessing you’re taking the singular probability of two events (P(team A) + P(team B) - P(team A * team B)), which would be 49% in our case. . -
Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
Einstein replied to BuffaloBillyG's topic in The Stadium Wall
-
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
The more the Titans lose, the more i’m starting to like Vrabel 😂 -
Congrats to Pro Bowlers James Cook and Dion Dawkins!
Einstein replied to beebe's topic in The Stadium Wall
FIFTH alternate!? It’s time to end the Pro Bowl when we need 5th alternates. -
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Hope you’re right! Question though: Who is he throwing too? Zay Flowers has a calf injury and hasn’t practiced the last two days. Doubt Beckham plays. Maybe he hands off a ton? -
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
13 of the 15 were either “limited” or “did not practice”. If you’re a player, you’re hurt, you’re on a 5-11 team… are you pushing to play in a meaningless final game? 🤷🏻♂️ -
It’s division title or bust (updates on non-Bills games)
Einstein posted a topic in The Stadium Wall
Any given Sunday, yada yada, but it’s looking like Division title or bust. Obviously we all know that the only way the Bills get in with a loss is if Pitt or Jacksonville lose. Well, a couple pieces of news today: 1) Ravens (playing Pitt) announced they are making Lamar Jackson inactive. In addition to this, the Ravens reporters on Twitter expect many more starters to sit out or see very little action. 2) The Titans (playing Jax) have 15 people on their injury report. That’s nearly 30% of the roster. The Titans are terrible as it is - they can’t afford any players to be injured. . -
Yeah you probably should have let it go because that’s factually incorrect. (a) to (e) are not the only relevant sections. There is a reason why an entire extra paragraph exists below it. It exists to add further information about situations where a player may (or even MUST) be reported that fall outside of of (a) to (e). Your justification of “weasel words” is simply your interpretation, but the letter of the law is there - in black and white. If we are going to play the weasel words defense, teams could attempt to weasel their way out of even (a) to (e). Considering we are talking about Diggs this entire time - a key player of the Bills - i’m not sure why even debate.
-
There was no additional context that was relevant. I see you bolded "may be reportable", which is irrelevant, considering our situation involves a key player that the very next paragraph states clearly "must be listed". Therefore, the entire context for the situation we are speaking of, was included... I guess they could. But the NFL could also say "Yeah, nice try, here is a nice fat fine". Like they did with the Falcons just two weeks ago. And the Steelers a couple years ago. But maybe the team figures "those fine are worth it". Especially since they're "fat" for a fan but not for a billion dollar team. .
-
Depends what you mean by "local". It was on TV in much of NY (Cuse, Southern Tier, etc) just not Buffalo and part of Rochester.
-
Basically, if an injury has the possibility to affect a players performance, it must be reported.
-
I was of the same opinion until McD recently said Diggs has no injury. Prior to that, I figured the Bills could hide behind omission of truth. Now, they would be outright lying. That would not go over well with the league office. Im starting to think what McD said is true - we just aren’t going to him as much. FYI - The following is direct from the NFL:
-
Because the point of the league is not to make the playoffs. I know there are some who believe “just make the playoffs every year and hope you get hot”. And I get the reasoning. But Nate Peterman (just to make up an example), is never winning you a Super Bowl, no matter how many playoff chances you give him. Nor is Tyrod Taylor. etc etc etc. So that logic doesn’t fly for me.
-
I get what you’re saying (you will marry the ugly bride because you see no beautiful women on your horizon), but football teams always have the option to not do something stupid. The Giants had the option to not sign Daniel Jones. Browns had the option to not trade for Deshaun Watson. etc. I would rather enter the unknown than be chained to an mediocre guy.
-
Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
Einstein replied to BuffaloBillyG's topic in The Stadium Wall
31 years after the greatest comeback of all time, this season reminds me a bit of that game. Down 3 games in the division with 5 games to play, we play for the division this Sunday! -
Will/Should Von be active vs. the Fish?
Einstein replied to EmotionallyUnstable's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think the Dolphins game plan could involve a healthy dose of running the ball. Not Von’s strong suit at this point. -
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/dalvin-cook-jets-mutually-agree-to-part-ways Running back Dalvin Cook’s short tenure with the Jets is coming to an end. Cook’s agents at LAA Sports announced on Tuesday, via Tom Pelissero of NFL Media, that their client and the Jets have mutually agreed to part ways. The hope is for Cook to catch on with a team going to the playoffs and he will be subject to waivers once his departure from the Jets becomes official.
-
Bills-Dolphins Week 18 for the Division! SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
Einstein replied to BuffaloBillyG's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'll be surprised if the Ravens win a single playoff game. We have seen this movie before. -
Last 4 games WR's average 107 yards total per game
Einstein replied to Mikie2times's topic in The Stadium Wall
I wonder if Diggs simply lost the ball in the sky, because that seemed pretty catchable to me. At worst it’s a slight dive and catch.