BillytheKid

this is hilarious also if you haven’t seen it. https://youtube.com/shorts/0KrZQ3Pbxek?si=twr4EAQV1c3kJEcp

“That's what she said.” ~~ Michael Scott

Mr. PEGULA is that you? You “Need to hear an explanation from the coaching staff on that?” You better get to the bottom of this. We can’t have the 3rd string TE making plays for us. Just go ask them. You are the owner. Report back to us when you find out.

I wouldn’t worry about the defense for now. First of all they won’t play anybody as explosive offensively as the Ravens the rest of the year. Once Hoecht and Ogunjobi are back it will help with more depth. Plus more games the young guys play they will get better. I’ll worry about the defense if they can’t hold their own against most of the rest of the teams or in the playoffs if they aren’t better by the time they come around. Nobody will be stopping the Bills offense or Ravens offenses this year. Any team that plays either one of them will have to have an offense that can score as many points as they can which no one else in the league will be able to do for the most part on most days anyways. Obviously there could be a game or two where either one of their offenses if off but for the most part think both will score at will on most teams. Bills just need to get the 1 seed this year so everyone has to come through Buffalo.

KC won’t make the playoffs this year. I predicted this a month ago. They have too much going against them. KC will enjoy a long off season this year.

He picked Buffalo against the Ravens last year in the playoffs. He gets more of them correct than wrong but just because he picks it doesn’t mean he will be correct. He knows football and his breakdowns are very good. I am concerned about the Bills defense though. Especially the secondary. Hopefully they play better than I am expecting them to.

Josh has the best TD to turnover ratio ever in the playoffs in the history of the NFL. So that settles any argument you are trying to make.

If you look at Allen’s stats vs the Ravens he has never been that great in those games to be honest. Would be nice if he has a great game against them for once. Even though they are 3-3. Jackson hasn’t played much better. 6 games versus the Ravens Allen 3-3 record 72 passer rating 55% completion percentage 157 passing yards per game. 25 rushing yards per game 182 total yards per game 0.5 passing TD’s per game 0.5 rushing TD’s per game 1 total TD per game 0.5 turnovers per game Lamar 90.9 passer rating 67% completion percentage 147 passing yards per game 34 rushing yards per game 181 total yards per game 1.33 Passing TD’s per game 0.16 rushing TD’s per game 1.49 total TD’s per game 1.16 turnovers per game

I like this idea. Be aggressive. Just have someone for kickoffs.

It’s that the Bills defense sucks and It’s not because of Mahomes. It’s because of Andy Reid. Mahomes has played well but he isn’t nearly as amazing as people think he is. Most of his passes are dump offs of like 2 to 4 yards and he gets his RB/WR/TE to run for a lot of yards after the catch. Also his defense is a lot better than Buffalo’s. Mahomes also has wide open receivers compared to what Allen has to do against the Chiefs defense. Don’t believe me? Watch this video. He breaks this down very well.

You are comparing 16 years to 5 years. So it’s not apples to apples yet until you get the remaining 11 years.

I don’t think there is a real comparison like MJS said but like some others have said if you have to compare him to someone, I would say he is somewhat like Elway. Elway was a bigger QB that was mobile and would run into people soemtimes and not be scared to take a hit, had a strong arm. I remember that one play I believe was in the Super Bowl where he dove for the end zone and got helicoptered in the air. Was exactly something I could see Josh doing and have already seen him do those things. So that is probably my closest comparison to good QB’s I can think of like others have said. But again, also, there is no comparison.

The thing is both of the other two guys on that show with Joe today, Jeremy and Jerry both thought Hoecht looked really great today as well. So that’s 3 of them. I won’t comment on it since I saw some of the game but not all of it and didn’t catch a lot of what he did. Seems to be a big difference of opinion though.

Think it will be called that all year. The university paid to partner with the Bills for marketing for the school. Believe they may be having commercials during Bills games also. I remember seeing an article about it.

We can agree to disagree. What I will say is if he is still here after they lose in the playoffs again then the Bills won’t be winning a Super Bowl ever with him as the coach. So hopefully he can somehow beat history this year an get it done. Otherwise I think he is gone. My opinion. Maybe I should phrase it more as he should be fired. Maybe he won’t be because the owner doesn’t have enough balls to do it.

If he doesn’t get to the Super Bowl this year he will get fired. People can not like it all they want but it’s the reality. You can’t keep doing the same things over and over again and keep getting the same result and think things will change. You have to do something different eventually. They aren’t going to get rid of Josh obviously so they will go with a different head coach. It happens all the time in sports to good coaches when they keep taking their teams far but never get over the hump, they let the coach go eventually and hire someone else they feel will get them over that hump. Mcdermott has been a great coach in most aspects but if there is same thing happens in the playoffs this year then they will need to make a change somewhere and they have already tried multiple OC’s and DC’s now. So he is the next in line. No matter how good you do if you don’t get where you need to get to at some point every one needs a new change of scenery and to try something different. You can’t keep getting to the ACF championship and losing and not doing something different. Josh Allen is the only QB in history to win 7 playoff games and NOT play in a Super Bowl. Mcdermott and Chuck Knox are the only 2 head coaches to win 7 playoff games and not play in a Super Bowl. Also no head coaching and QB duo has ever not won a Super Bowl with in the first 5 years playing and coaching together ever. So the only people not liking this or putting a red X on peoples takes are people who don’t know sports or football.

Yes I know this. I never said Buffalo was going to win anything. My only point in this thread was to point out all of the things going against KC this year. They have played deep into the playoffs 3 straight years and I can almost Guaranty They will be having a hangover from last year and not winning the Super Bowl after trying to get their 3rd in a row. Their total wins is set at 11.5 and I’m going under on that wager big time. They could get to 11 wins and I win it. I think they may end up 10-7. As far as Buffalo who knows. I think it will come down to Buffalo and Baltimore in the AFC. I’m not predicting for sure either will win a Super Bowl only hoping Buffalo does. Who knows, the Chargers may be a sleeper team with Jim coaching them and sneak through.

I’m not here or posting this stuff to argue with anyone. Just based off of all of the research I have done looking into past metrics and historical patterns there is a strong convergence of things that lean to KC not making the playoffs or if they do they lose in the wildcard round. It mainly leans to them not even making the playoffs. I thought I would post it because it is interesting and if you disagree with me that is fine. Here is one more reason I’ll add that I think KC misses the playoffs. Kansas City was definitely lucky last year and won above what their underlying statistical metrics were. Of the very very few teams in all of those categories I posted in the original post that ended up doing halfway decent the next year those teams had good underlying statistical metrics that same year going into the next year. Kansas City doesn’t. They have mediocre to bad underlying metrics. Teams in the past the had the same or very very close underlying metrics to what KC did last year going into the following year and how they did What the 4 Teams with KC-like Metrics did the following year and did any of them make the playoffs? We’re looking at teams that had: • Winning records • Offensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.1 YPP, negative EPA, poor WR separation) • Defensive metrics similar to KC’s 2024 (e.g., ~5.3 YPP allowed, average turnovers, low sack rate Playoffs? 2022 Vikings 13–4 -> 7–10 Missed 2016 Raiders 12–4 ->6–10 Missed 2004 Falcons 11–5 -> 8–8 Missed 1994 Patriots 10–6-> 6–10 Missed Result: 0 out of 4 made the playoffs the following season Despite winning records, none of these teams sustained success the next year when saddled with: • Offensive inefficiency • Defensive mediocrity • Low disruption metrics (turnovers, sacks) Had to edit it as there are only 4 teams that matched it. I was looking at two different lists of things when putting this together and accidentally added wrong info from another list on the last 3 teams. KC does have a little higher chance on the offensive end of doing better but I still think everything combined they drop off.

Add on to all of that the San Diego and Denver will both be a lot better and I think Kelce will suck this year and KC will struggle more than people think.

I’m a professional sports handicapper. Have been for over 30 years. I know what I’m doing. It’s not like it’s a huge wager. I think KC struggles this year. Don’t care what anyone else thinks. Betting certain patterns that happen over and over again works better than anything else as far as future bets go. If it loses no biggie. It’s one wager. I make 20 wagers a week. I’m not some guy wagering one bet a year like most here. It’s small sample size on some of them because it doesn’t happen very often. I can go back further on the teams that go undefeated in one score games and they all do horrible for the most part all the way back to the 60’s. I just chose to use the more modern era. Didn’t need to use all of it when it speaks for itself from the year 2000 on. I wrote it and had AI clean some of it up for me. So what’s your point? I’m the one that did all of the data research. This has nothing to do with the Bills. It has to do with KC and KC only.

(I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.) Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once. --- ⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out. • 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs • 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs • 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs • 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss • 2006 Colts: 9-0 Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round Historical hit rate: • ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs • ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year --- 🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year. • 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. • 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City. • 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year. Historical hit rate: • ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs • ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl • ❌ 0% chance to win it --- 💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year: • 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs • 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs • 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round • 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs • 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior. • 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending Historical hit rate: • ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs • ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship • ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl --- 📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first. 📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent Outcome Estimated Odds Make Playoffs 25–35% Reach AFC Championship 5–10% Make Super Bowl 0–3% Win Super Bowl 0% 🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round. Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350.

I don’t have any questions at all! To each their own.

I was trying to help the people under a rock!!! 🙂 Actually the main point of the article wasn’t anything we didn’t know other than I thought all of those stats for Allen shows just how great he has been, even better than Mahomes in many instances.

ok. I actually did use the search function and couldn’t find it anywhere. Guess I must have missed it. My bad if so.

Guess you didn’t read the whole article. I know you know. So do I. That wasn’t the point of the article if you read the whole thing.