Cray51

Rodgers hurt, take any points you can get. No need to miss opportunities to put points on the board when their QB is hurt

Im trying to find a team that compared to the Bills in draft position year over year. 1-2 top 15 picks and the rest being later part of the first round. I think understanding comparable GMs in comparable situations gives us insight to the realities of NFL drafting. I think the closest I can find are the Green Bay Packers Drafted 18th, 12th, 26th and 29th from 2018-2021. From those drafts, they selected: 2 pro bowlers (Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins) 7-8 Team Starters Another 8 Bottom of the roster guys In total, out of 37 selections, 15 are NFL roster talents. That's a 40% hit rate. And of the 37, I'd say 6 are GOOD starters, as in they would start for most if not all 32 NFL teams. For the Bills, they have: 4 pro bowlers 10-11 Team Starters Another 11 Bottom of the roster guys Out of 31 picks, 22 are NFL roster worthy - that's 71% Of course, Green Bay and the Bills are in different categories of team CURRENTLY. But their draft selection spots have been relatively close year over year. I'd say the Bills have had much better results compared to a team who has been in a similar position. Take the Ravens: Picked 25th, 32nd, 25th, 28th, 27th from 2018-2021 (two picks in 2018). They selected: 4 Pro Bowlers 10-11 Team Starters Another 12 Bottom of the roster guys Out of 39 picks, 23 are NFL roster worthy - that's 59%. Again, are we saying the Bills are the BEST drafting team around? No. But are they good at finding NFL talent and maintaining cost control across their depth with good selections? I'd say yes.

I think the way to look at this is simple. Take Beane's picks, rate them 1-5 (scale below). Control against draft position. That determines his effectiveness as a GM with drafting. Retention is another conversation (Wyatt Teller). Scale: 1-Bad Player, no impact 2-Below average for draft position, minimal impact 3-Average for draft position, decent impact 4-Above average for draft position, positive impact 5-Great for draft position, extreme positive impact Bills Draft Record: 2018: 7 - Allen: 5 - Stud 16 - Edmunds: 3 - Played in pro bowls, gets a large deal, even if it was with another team. Talent after selection (Derwin James, Jaire Alexander) is very strong 96 - Phillips: 3 - Received contract from Vikings, decent DT player in league. No one picked around him that made impact 121 - Johnson: 4 - Above average slot corner, starter on 32 NFL teams. Strong result relative to draft position 154 - Neal: 3 - Special Teams ace - players selected around him: Quessenbery (lol), Settle, Tyler Conklin. Bottom of the roster players 166 - Teller: 5 - Purely off of NFL impact. Guy was a steal that we let get away. Unfortunate, but Beane did make the selection 187 - McCloud: 3 - Bottom of roster player, but has played in 65 games in his career. Punt Returner and currently on 49ers roster 255 - Proehl: 1 - not on team ever Avg: 3.4 - Strong draft 2019: 9 - Oliver: 3 - Functional starter, is a good player. Not great. 55% of top 10 picks play in a pro bowl, I think Oliver can still do that on his best seasons 38 - Ford: 2 - Started for the team, however was dealt. Bad player, but did play for us in some capacity 74 - Singletary: 3 - 4 year RB impact 96 - Knox: 4 - Top 10 TE in the league at 96. Great value and beats most others around him in impact 147 - Joseph: 1 - bad pick 181 - Johnson: 3 - Has played in 60 games for the Bills. No one of value picked around him. Average impact for a 6th round pick 225 - Johnson: 2 - Made roster for a few years, bottom of roster player 228 - Sweeney: 2 - Made roster, bottom of roster player Avg: 2.5 - Average draft 2020: 54 - Epenesa: 2 - Backup, likely wont get a second contract with the team. Better players selected soon after him 86 - Moss: 2 - Backup, dealt, not a impact player, however no one selected around him that was any better 128 - Davis: 4 - WR2, 20 career TDs. Great value considering picks around him 167 - Fromm: 2 - Bottom of roster QB, left after a few years. Still bumping around the league 188 - Bass: 4 - Above average kicker - good pick 207 - Hodgins: 3 - Took a while, and with another team, but finally showing results. Would be WR3 on this team right now. Decent value pick 239 - Jackson: 4 - CB2, would be CB2 on a lot of teams. Great value for what he has brought. Really liked his contributions to this team. Avg: 3 - Good draft, lacks top talent but good value picks throughout 2021: 30 - Rousseau: 4 - Good DE, Pro Bowl potential. 12 sacks through two seasons 61 - Basham: 2 - Backup DE 93 - Brown: 3 - Rotational RT. Has potential, but has been up and down. Honestly, no one picked around him of value 161 - Doyle: 2 - Bottom of roster, injured often 203 - Stevenson: 1 - No impact 212 - Hamlin: 3 - Perfectly fine pick from the 6th round. Bottom of roster guy who has played up when needed 213 - Wildgoose: 1 - no impact player 236 - Anderson: 1 - no impact player Avg: 2.125 Lackluster draft. So, overall from 2018-2021 (2022/23 still too soon), overall average for Beane is a 2.75. If we consider an average draft a 2.5, I'd say he is slightly above average. 2021 was a bad draft, but it was also the COVID year. If you take that out, it climbs to a 2.95, which is pretty strong. I haven't had the time to compare against a team with similar draft position year over year, but Beane IMO is a slightly above average talent evaluator, but a plus contract guy and someone who will attack for guys he thinks will be NFL players (trades up in the draft).

Right. I'd love to understand WHEN do his turnovers occur. Are they in game sealing/game changing moments, or are we talking about a deep ball on a 3rd and 15 with 1 minute left in the half that is relatively inconsequential. Maybe if I have the time this week I can dive into his turnovers over the past 3 years to better understand.

I dont really care if he throws 13-17 INTs, if he puts up 5000 total yards and 38+ total TDs. Elite MVP QBs to be around 2.5:1 TDs to Turnovers. Last 3 years, Allen is at 2.1:1. That's strong, but I think 2.5:1 would be the elite MVP style impact. However, Allen is a great QB, who will win games even with his ratios not being perfect.

I dont disagree Mayfield had incredibly poor support coming into the league. And Freddie Kitchens was an awful head coach. Not trying to bring up my relationships with internals in the Browns org at that time, but they claim if the Browns continued with Gregg Williams as their HC instead of having Freddie Kitchens, Mayfield would be a better QB then what he is today.

Fair, I dont disagree. And frankly, Teddy hasnt been a spectacular pro. But, Haslam absolutely tries to influence picks, to almost an authoritarian level if he has the vigor to

A very interesting story from my cousin who, at the time, was a scout for the Browns. I just found this out last week actually. From my cousin - "We all went into the draft process with Manziel graded quite lowly. He couldn't process presnap, and his initial reads were not strong. We actually had Teddy Bridgewater ahead of him, and was our target towards the end of the first round if we had a pick. From the GM down, Teddy was a higher graded player compared to Jonny. Unfortunately, the owner was dead set on carrying forward with taking Manziel for the financial gain of jersey sales, and the popularity of the pick. He knew we had greater chances of primetime games and butts in seats if we went with Manziel. Draft night comes, and the GM is forced into a decision to take the QB who was 3rd or 4th on most scouts list (behind Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr)." So yes, the franchise failed that selection, however the owner was the main culprit here.

Absolutely - and dynamic physical QBs are incredibly exciting

That's because the equation for a QB is incredibly difficult to solve, and its misunderstood. People get caught up in "Pretty technique" and "Athleticism", but struggle to grade IMO the most important part of a QB - his mental ability. Wonderlik is a joke, so we dont have any sort of really good measure for the person's ability to digest information real time and make a decision. A QB has the impact in a play for about 3-4 seconds. I'd say 50% of that impact is completely mental - little athleticism or technique physically impacts 50% of the outcome of the QBs role in a play. The other 50% is split between pre throw physicals (ability to take the snap, drop back, work the pocket, scramble), and the throw itself (technique, velocity, accuracy). Darnold had beautiful technique, and decent physicals. However, he couldnt process the game well enough to utilize those fundamentals. Richardson has incredible physicals. However, I haven't seen him read defenses in a way that he can be an upper echelon QB.

I find him to have a much higher chance of “bust” over all pro. He has tools, but struggles reading defenses which - imo - is the single most critical factor in high end QB play. The other thing is - he is a big dude, but is he going to run with that emphasis that Allen does. Will he carry that reckless abandon into the NFL, so he can be a dynamic rushing threat. I absolutely think he is a stash in a QB keeper situation, as he has a small chance of putting it all together. However, I’m not convinced he can

It was a clearly stated roster battle going into camp last year. Crowder got hurt (you could say it was expected, I would more say probable) at the beginning of camp, which put him on the back foot even going into preseason. Where he then got hurt again before missing the entire regular season. Simply having Crowder there may have allowed us to keep Mckenzie fresh and not force him into the role as consistently as he was in it.

To be fair, Crowder going down really hurt us last year. Guy was never healthy and forced McKenzie into a role he couldnt handle

Before the bye week: 441 Yards of offense per game (where I said they looked good, and McKenzie was effective in his role) After: 371 Yards of offense per game You are right - we average 397 yards of offense for the year - which was helped by a tremendous start and then hurt by a REAL drop-off of 70 yards a game. Even breaking down just McKenzie: First 6 weeks: 26 Tgts (4.5 per game), 3 TDs Last 10 weeks: 39 Tgts (3.9 per game), 1 TD That's with injuries piling up for other players as well. If Kincaid can bring 3-4 catches on 5-6 targets, for 40ish yards and play a better blocking role then McKenzie, this team improves

Yea I dont disagree with you. Allen needs to take what's in front of him. But the players in front of him need to be consistent and able to deliver. McKenzie was not able to for a large chunk of the year last year - so much so that we brough Beasley back. Kincaid has worlds more talent that McKenzie - we need to see him deliver on that talent

And let me be clear, I dont believe Kincaid is a 1,000 yard rookie year guy. I think success is 500-600 yards. But watching the film from the first quarter of the year last year, Dorsey leveraged the slot role to GREAT success. When we started trying to fill Shakir into that role, man we could not get things going. Kincaid or Harty can really help fill gap. Sub point - two TE sets will also be huge for this offense. But that's another discussion

Our offense will hum like it did to start the year. When you go back and watch the first quarter of last year, the guy that consistently jumps out as making big time plays was - Isiah McKenzie. They used him in the slot role, and he was an outlet Josh looked to multiple times throughout the game. As the year went on, Isiah made some mistakes (thinking of that fumble against the Chiefs) and started to struggle. All of a sudden, Diggs wasn't generating as much, Davis looked poor, and our offense looked disjointed. This team benefits from having a true slot option. Josh can play pocket passer more frequently if so. If Kincaid can come in and force teams to truly defend the slot, the rest of our offense opens up BIG time. I think it's the single biggest question mark on offense going into the year.

Hurts is above him, and he had a great year last year. Not a single NFL GM takes Hurts over Allen. Even the Eagles wouldn’t

Allen, Hurts, Jackson are three completely different players. Allen - drop back focused, with some designed runs. Likes to jump out of the pocket with pressure comes in and will create with his legs Hurts - Play action and designed run heavy Jackson - Pocket passer who is a first read guy, and then likes either an outlet with his TE or his legs. Designed runs are a part of his game, but not to Hurts level Allen is the best QB out of the three, then Jackson, then Hurts. And the gap between Allen and Hurts is a tier or two

I’d swallow mouthfuls of Josh’s Jocks

The average poster here can’t tie their own shoes. Most complain of the result without understanding the nuance that sets up the result. I appreciate your insight to the game, and agree - McD has some very strong qualities to be a great defensive play caller and head coach next season

Wait and see mode for this. Diggs could have left for a number of reasons. I have no issues with most of his "antics" if you will (i.e. his sideline passion, cryptic tweets, etc.). Would like for him to address why he wasn't in practice today, but honestly, if the dude shows up for real practices near preseason, I could care less. The dude is hyper competitive and flies off the rails sometimes. I can deal with that if he puts up the stats he does year over year.

Hey my IQ has been tested too! They said I scored a 90.... so no big deal but I'm an A student which is PRETTY GOOD if you ask me. My mom tells me how proud she is of me when she is done wiping the tears from her eyes!

Reality is purely a numbers game. McD Bills: .639 Winning Percentage (grades out as an average 11-6 season YoY) 4 Playoffs in 5 Years .688 Winning Percentage last 4 seasons (Allen Year2 and on) 4-5 in Playoffs 0 Super Bowl Appearances To me, that reality is we have been a GOOD team that has not won in the playoffs. Reality then shifts to perspective. Is it due to execution? Coaching? Roster Management? Injuries? A combination? That is opinion based on who you ask. I have plenty of friends in Tampa who like the Bills and want them to do well. I also have plenty that dont. So which is reality? Maybe its in the middle. The Bills are a good football team who have not won it all. I think the real question is - were Bills fans happier when we were purely a poor team instead of a good team who haven't been the best? That's the question I'd love a genuine response to from a lot of people on this board.

He isn’t coming to Buffalo, but that’s ok. Our current stable is decent, with upside. Let cook go to another team and let’s see how he does