Cray51

The sports reporters was the best panel show in ESPN's tenure. They weren't about BS, they had 4 guys who knew sports come together to thoroughly discuss sports stories without making it a spectacle Miss that show - whatever we watch now is just terrible. And any individual who has a decent mind and wants to be honest gets caught up in the competition of podcasts and has to speak out to stay relevant. Or, they go to a big company and have to play a part to get airtime.

I don’t think the game plan was all that different. The execution was

The Pats have blitzed a few times, but it’s all coming from around the tackles. Tua is getting the ball out quickly and negating the rush. two safety deep, three levels of contract. Backers take the flats and force Tua to lift passes ( he has shown to struggle with that in the past). Corners take second level coverage, and safeties play over the top. If Mostert goes for 150 on you, who cares. But don’t let Hill and Waddle chunk you down the field. success against Miami is built on 4 man pressure and great coverage play. Idk how many teams can achieve that, but imo it’s critical

Miami has a very good timing offense. Tua is willing to throw passes “blind” and trust his receivers. You need to give them the run game, and sit your backers between him and his weapons. if Tua takes the underneath all game, give him 200 yards and a TD. But don’t sit 10 yards off scrimmage and let him chew you up

He went from put the playbook on the plane to please put me on the plane so I can play at all!

Allen is a big boy, so teams (especially the Jets) take liberties as we saw with Newton, refs don’t call the book the same with big athletic QBs. If we had Kyle Allen taking helmet to helmet shots and being dove on top of, I bet my life a flag would have been throw

I remember when Brady threw 5 picks against us... that's a QB losing a game for a team. Allen lost the game for the Bills last night as well, but he has also won the Bills plenty of games in his career. The moment we start expecting him to be perfect is the moment we will be disappointed. Chiefs lost - and looked very average Bengals lost - and looked abysmal Bills lost - and shot themselves in the foot Week 1 of the NFL is a crazy week for a reason. We played a top 5 defence and made mistakes. We wont play a defense like that again... until we face them at home. The moment Allen does this against the Raiders in week 2.... then I'll be nervous. For now, this week was simply missed opportunity.

I give full credit to the Jet's D for stopping the Bills. They frustrated Allen and gave him the opportunity to force plays, which led to turnovers. But the Bills were their own worst enemy tonight. Allen's fumble in the 4th was all Buffalo's fault. Milano getting the taunting penalty and pushing the offense back 15 yards was all him. Allen choosing to launch the ball into double coverage twice because he just decided to was on him. The Jet's did a great job holding the Bills down, but Buffalo absolutely shot themselves in the foot time and time again. If the Bills ran the ball every play of the second half, they win the game.

So when did we go from 4 straight playoff appearances and 3 straight division titles with this team to a poorly prepared coach and a train wreck QB?

I agree that if the Bills play like this we dont win a super bowl. I think that's obvious. But every measure over the last 3-4 years points us to the likelyhood that this was our WORST game of the season, and will revert back to the mean. 4 turnovers is not a likely outcome week to week. So I understand being nervous about Superbowl potential, but let's not act like last night is the norm week over week. No team has ever averaged 4 turnovers a game over the course of the season. If you want to point out that the Bills have 1-2 of these games each season, I agree. But every team does that. Hell, Burrow just threw for 82 yards against the Browns and put up 3 points. Chiefs just lost to the Lions week 1. Good teams lose to worse teams every year.

Also - Allen looked impatient and FRUSTRATED in the second half. My guess? He wanted to put the Jets away, but their defense stepped up and Josh started forcing. If we go three and out every drive in the second half, we win the game. Allen got caught up in the moment, and it showed. We all knew the Jet's defence is great - let's acknowledge that and give them credit. Bills let the Jet's influence their decision making, and it bit us. Expect better results moving forward.

Season is long - my patience is not. However... Coming out of last night, I'd still rather be a Bills fan than a Jets fan. The Jets played their ass off, but yesterday was way more the Bills shooting themselves in the foot then Jet's playing great football. Their offense will not generate anything with Wilson as QB. They better hope Rodgers is able to play at some point this season. Chiefs, Bengals, Bills all lost week 1. Surprise surprise, the NFL is a tough league to win in. My expectations of this team are still the same - 11-13 wins and a division title. Couple minor notes: Diggs looks good, he made Gardner look poor most of the night 1 on 1 Allen played a bad game, and I think he was reading short to deep, which really took away his ability to attack the mid range. The Jet's spied him wiht Mosley, and Allen looked like he was chucking the ball downfield blindly, instead of by intelligent choice. I will say, Allen isn't going to have another game like this again in the season. Worst Allen game since his rookie year. Dorsey needs to leverage Knox and Kincaid more. They will be matchup nightmares Cook looked good. I cant be mad that he didnt convert a 3rd and 10 by juking two backers coming at him full speed. He isnt Mccoy. Defense looked good, two/three big runs aside. I thought Milano looked the best of the bunch, and I was disappointed in Poyer. He looks slow Bass is a great kicker - underrated around the league Offensive like looked OK - I thought they had good moments and bad moments. They weren't the reason we lost Mistakes cost the Bills a victory. Need to clean it up. Good thing, week 1 tends to be the big mistake week, so I EXPECT this to clean up as we move forward.

Jets D is GOOD. Unfortunately for them, their offensive line is absolute ASS. Becton js a joke, and their only success are chunk runs. I expect them to come out running in the second half, need to have gap control strong and make tackles at the line.

Rodgers hurt, take any points you can get. No need to miss opportunities to put points on the board when their QB is hurt

Im trying to find a team that compared to the Bills in draft position year over year. 1-2 top 15 picks and the rest being later part of the first round. I think understanding comparable GMs in comparable situations gives us insight to the realities of NFL drafting. I think the closest I can find are the Green Bay Packers Drafted 18th, 12th, 26th and 29th from 2018-2021. From those drafts, they selected: 2 pro bowlers (Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins) 7-8 Team Starters Another 8 Bottom of the roster guys In total, out of 37 selections, 15 are NFL roster talents. That's a 40% hit rate. And of the 37, I'd say 6 are GOOD starters, as in they would start for most if not all 32 NFL teams. For the Bills, they have: 4 pro bowlers 10-11 Team Starters Another 11 Bottom of the roster guys Out of 31 picks, 22 are NFL roster worthy - that's 71% Of course, Green Bay and the Bills are in different categories of team CURRENTLY. But their draft selection spots have been relatively close year over year. I'd say the Bills have had much better results compared to a team who has been in a similar position. Take the Ravens: Picked 25th, 32nd, 25th, 28th, 27th from 2018-2021 (two picks in 2018). They selected: 4 Pro Bowlers 10-11 Team Starters Another 12 Bottom of the roster guys Out of 39 picks, 23 are NFL roster worthy - that's 59%. Again, are we saying the Bills are the BEST drafting team around? No. But are they good at finding NFL talent and maintaining cost control across their depth with good selections? I'd say yes.

I think the way to look at this is simple. Take Beane's picks, rate them 1-5 (scale below). Control against draft position. That determines his effectiveness as a GM with drafting. Retention is another conversation (Wyatt Teller). Scale: 1-Bad Player, no impact 2-Below average for draft position, minimal impact 3-Average for draft position, decent impact 4-Above average for draft position, positive impact 5-Great for draft position, extreme positive impact Bills Draft Record: 2018: 7 - Allen: 5 - Stud 16 - Edmunds: 3 - Played in pro bowls, gets a large deal, even if it was with another team. Talent after selection (Derwin James, Jaire Alexander) is very strong 96 - Phillips: 3 - Received contract from Vikings, decent DT player in league. No one picked around him that made impact 121 - Johnson: 4 - Above average slot corner, starter on 32 NFL teams. Strong result relative to draft position 154 - Neal: 3 - Special Teams ace - players selected around him: Quessenbery (lol), Settle, Tyler Conklin. Bottom of the roster players 166 - Teller: 5 - Purely off of NFL impact. Guy was a steal that we let get away. Unfortunate, but Beane did make the selection 187 - McCloud: 3 - Bottom of roster player, but has played in 65 games in his career. Punt Returner and currently on 49ers roster 255 - Proehl: 1 - not on team ever Avg: 3.4 - Strong draft 2019: 9 - Oliver: 3 - Functional starter, is a good player. Not great. 55% of top 10 picks play in a pro bowl, I think Oliver can still do that on his best seasons 38 - Ford: 2 - Started for the team, however was dealt. Bad player, but did play for us in some capacity 74 - Singletary: 3 - 4 year RB impact 96 - Knox: 4 - Top 10 TE in the league at 96. Great value and beats most others around him in impact 147 - Joseph: 1 - bad pick 181 - Johnson: 3 - Has played in 60 games for the Bills. No one of value picked around him. Average impact for a 6th round pick 225 - Johnson: 2 - Made roster for a few years, bottom of roster player 228 - Sweeney: 2 - Made roster, bottom of roster player Avg: 2.5 - Average draft 2020: 54 - Epenesa: 2 - Backup, likely wont get a second contract with the team. Better players selected soon after him 86 - Moss: 2 - Backup, dealt, not a impact player, however no one selected around him that was any better 128 - Davis: 4 - WR2, 20 career TDs. Great value considering picks around him 167 - Fromm: 2 - Bottom of roster QB, left after a few years. Still bumping around the league 188 - Bass: 4 - Above average kicker - good pick 207 - Hodgins: 3 - Took a while, and with another team, but finally showing results. Would be WR3 on this team right now. Decent value pick 239 - Jackson: 4 - CB2, would be CB2 on a lot of teams. Great value for what he has brought. Really liked his contributions to this team. Avg: 3 - Good draft, lacks top talent but good value picks throughout 2021: 30 - Rousseau: 4 - Good DE, Pro Bowl potential. 12 sacks through two seasons 61 - Basham: 2 - Backup DE 93 - Brown: 3 - Rotational RT. Has potential, but has been up and down. Honestly, no one picked around him of value 161 - Doyle: 2 - Bottom of roster, injured often 203 - Stevenson: 1 - No impact 212 - Hamlin: 3 - Perfectly fine pick from the 6th round. Bottom of roster guy who has played up when needed 213 - Wildgoose: 1 - no impact player 236 - Anderson: 1 - no impact player Avg: 2.125 Lackluster draft. So, overall from 2018-2021 (2022/23 still too soon), overall average for Beane is a 2.75. If we consider an average draft a 2.5, I'd say he is slightly above average. 2021 was a bad draft, but it was also the COVID year. If you take that out, it climbs to a 2.95, which is pretty strong. I haven't had the time to compare against a team with similar draft position year over year, but Beane IMO is a slightly above average talent evaluator, but a plus contract guy and someone who will attack for guys he thinks will be NFL players (trades up in the draft).

Right. I'd love to understand WHEN do his turnovers occur. Are they in game sealing/game changing moments, or are we talking about a deep ball on a 3rd and 15 with 1 minute left in the half that is relatively inconsequential. Maybe if I have the time this week I can dive into his turnovers over the past 3 years to better understand.

I dont really care if he throws 13-17 INTs, if he puts up 5000 total yards and 38+ total TDs. Elite MVP QBs to be around 2.5:1 TDs to Turnovers. Last 3 years, Allen is at 2.1:1. That's strong, but I think 2.5:1 would be the elite MVP style impact. However, Allen is a great QB, who will win games even with his ratios not being perfect.

I dont disagree Mayfield had incredibly poor support coming into the league. And Freddie Kitchens was an awful head coach. Not trying to bring up my relationships with internals in the Browns org at that time, but they claim if the Browns continued with Gregg Williams as their HC instead of having Freddie Kitchens, Mayfield would be a better QB then what he is today.

Fair, I dont disagree. And frankly, Teddy hasnt been a spectacular pro. But, Haslam absolutely tries to influence picks, to almost an authoritarian level if he has the vigor to

A very interesting story from my cousin who, at the time, was a scout for the Browns. I just found this out last week actually. From my cousin - "We all went into the draft process with Manziel graded quite lowly. He couldn't process presnap, and his initial reads were not strong. We actually had Teddy Bridgewater ahead of him, and was our target towards the end of the first round if we had a pick. From the GM down, Teddy was a higher graded player compared to Jonny. Unfortunately, the owner was dead set on carrying forward with taking Manziel for the financial gain of jersey sales, and the popularity of the pick. He knew we had greater chances of primetime games and butts in seats if we went with Manziel. Draft night comes, and the GM is forced into a decision to take the QB who was 3rd or 4th on most scouts list (behind Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr)." So yes, the franchise failed that selection, however the owner was the main culprit here.

Absolutely - and dynamic physical QBs are incredibly exciting

That's because the equation for a QB is incredibly difficult to solve, and its misunderstood. People get caught up in "Pretty technique" and "Athleticism", but struggle to grade IMO the most important part of a QB - his mental ability. Wonderlik is a joke, so we dont have any sort of really good measure for the person's ability to digest information real time and make a decision. A QB has the impact in a play for about 3-4 seconds. I'd say 50% of that impact is completely mental - little athleticism or technique physically impacts 50% of the outcome of the QBs role in a play. The other 50% is split between pre throw physicals (ability to take the snap, drop back, work the pocket, scramble), and the throw itself (technique, velocity, accuracy). Darnold had beautiful technique, and decent physicals. However, he couldnt process the game well enough to utilize those fundamentals. Richardson has incredible physicals. However, I haven't seen him read defenses in a way that he can be an upper echelon QB.

I find him to have a much higher chance of “bust” over all pro. He has tools, but struggles reading defenses which - imo - is the single most critical factor in high end QB play. The other thing is - he is a big dude, but is he going to run with that emphasis that Allen does. Will he carry that reckless abandon into the NFL, so he can be a dynamic rushing threat. I absolutely think he is a stash in a QB keeper situation, as he has a small chance of putting it all together. However, I’m not convinced he can

It was a clearly stated roster battle going into camp last year. Crowder got hurt (you could say it was expected, I would more say probable) at the beginning of camp, which put him on the back foot even going into preseason. Where he then got hurt again before missing the entire regular season. Simply having Crowder there may have allowed us to keep Mckenzie fresh and not force him into the role as consistently as he was in it.