Beck Water

I think people under-estimate how important run blocking is, even to a power back like Henry. I'm not saying I wouldn't love a power run game, but it requires commitment - building an OL that can sustain it, practicing etc. Henry would be a 1 year rental at this point and as a trade - who or what do you want to give up for him?

Negative. 1 year, $4.7M. Our midget has a lower cap hit at $3.745M this year.

Isn't he like, slow AF? OK I looked it up.... 4.6 second 40 while Edmunds was 4.54. FWIW, when asked about LB, Beane specifically stated "sometimes your answer is on your roster". He mentioned Dodson, he mentioned Spector and Bernard having a year in the system and coming in more prepared for the NFL and for the Bills defensive system. Then he talked about cap casualties and free agencies and "maybe in the draft". So I think those of us expecting a significant FA signing like Bobby Wagner to help put us over the top and really lock down that LB position, are going to be disappointed.

So listening to what Beane said, I would tend to agree with 2. So long, Isaiah. -Foreshadowing - "we may still see some roster cut downs" -Mentioning Harty's role - sees him as a #4 on the field with Diggs, Davis, Shakir. Says he's really good at tracking the ball and he's a true vertical threat who can also run option routes from the slot. In the past has said of McKenzie "he needs to track the ball better". -Response to a direct question "good question" (as per usual, we couldn't hear the Q other than McKenzie's name) - "still sorting that out - love Isaiah, he's been great for us, we're talking internally to make sure we don't have too much duplication, I think we'll know in the next couple of days" That ain't exactly "we'd love to keep him, we still think he has a role here and a lot to contribute". That's "thanks for your service, Buddy, Good-bye" Common sense, the Bills just brought in a new WR coach who had nothing to do with developing McKenzie (or not), no personal relationship to him and the Bills just spent their 2nd biggest FA investment on a smurf WR who has a ton of per-catch incentives they got to give him a fair chance to earn. Now personally, I think they just brought in a smurf with a risky injury history (Oh - and he was suspended 3 games for DUI in 2021, after 3 years in the NFL to get "smarter"), so it would make sense to keep some competition for him going into camp and also, a guy who has proven himself pretty durable. But that doesn't sound like what Beane has in mind. McKenzie is owed a $250,000 roster bonus on the 3rd day of the new league year (in other words, tomorrow). So you would think, if they're gonna cut him, they'd cut him tomorrow to maximize the savings. It'll be interesting to see if the Jaguars pick him up since Chad Hall, who does have an investment in McKenzie's development, is now their WR coach. Doug Pederson is just the offensively creative SOB to figure out how to use him (and scary enough to keep McKenzie focused). Now what I don't like about what I heard, and granted Beane has no obligation to tip his hand, is that it sounds as though they're Done in FA at WR and Done at OL. 😒

Fun fact: the Bills averaged 17.7 rushes per game by an RB They averaged 7.8 from their QB. Now, you're never gonna get Josh to stop rushing all together, nor should we try. But 2 fewer rushes per game from Allen and the Bills woulda been at 20 rushes per game by an RB last season. Note: not arguing for or against acquiring King Henry, just providing some rush attempt context.

Seriously. Beane: FIX THE OL!

Hines is an RB - one of only two on the team right now. He was also the primary KR and PR last season Harty could return kicks and punts, but all the incentives in his contract are about receptions, which leads me to believe the intent is to use him primarily as a WR. Last season, it was thought to be reasonable to have McKenzie and Crowder both on the roster, filling somewhat different roles. So maybe - they will both be on the roster, not because "Beane is terrible at asset management" but because they are seen as filling different roles. As a basis in fact, they take up just under $10M in cap space. If you cut McKenzie, you save a whole $1.75 - $2.2M. That might happen, but the cost to take him into camp is pretty low - $350k - so I don't know why one wouldn't do that and move on, if they're going to, AFTER they see for sure what Harty gives them. Having two guys who can return kicks and punts on the team, and two guys who can fill the small speedy WR role, and have them just be 3 guys instead of 4 could be seen as "good asset management".

He would, but he can't find his wallet I just turned around to check. Yeah, I still got a slide rule sticking out between books on the shelves behind me. I used to use a circular slide rule as well.

LOL I'm glad you did, his post wasn't granular enough for me (meaning no critique, different wording makes sense to different folks). Yours is. Pay decrease on restructure was Settle, perhaps? So, yes, that's a big part of it. Those 9 guys pushed off about $6.6M of cap adding from Spotrac. $6.6M plus $6.9M is $13.5M, add in restructure you brought up gets us to $14.1M. That's still off from what Spotrac is reporting ($16.4M), but it's enough closer that I feel like I understand what's going on, which is helpful to me.

I think the general fan consensus was that our OL was Not Good Enough last season, especially the right side. So far the only OL signing is to replace aging vet G Saffold, who played poorly last year, with former Cowboys backup G Conner McGovern. I don't think that's good enough, so I call Big Hole, at least 1 maybe 2. Right now we got one RB with 500 yds on 90 carries, 25% of the snaps which is fine for as far as it goes, but will his pass protection improve enough and will he manage to sustain a higher workload? Our other RB had -3 yds on 6 carries. Yet we've drafted RBs in the 2nd or 3rd round for 3 of the last 4 drafts with nothing much to show for it; it sets my teeth on edge that people claim there's RB talent in the late rounds but we don't seem to find it there. Anyway, I kind of feel as though there's a hole at RB. Greg Cosell did a podcast at the combine with Brown and Tasker where they discussed his belief that the Bills badly need a "3 level WR" https://www.buffalobills.com/video/one-bills-live (pretty good podcast, give it a listen). If you feel signing a 5'6" 4-year vet is enough in that regard, I don't. So that's another hole. Last hole that comes to mind, is that right now we only have one starting-quality 3TDT on the roster in Ed Oliver, whom many want to trade. Since McDermott is determined upon a rotation, we need at least another quality DT there. So that's 5 holes at least.

Just a note that one of the stats folks are touting on this signing is Hardy's great YAC. Typically, players don't get great YAC by getting out of bounds and just generally giving themselves up. So if you want Hardy to start doing that to protect himself, you're wanting him to give up on one of the factors that folks are pointing to saying "better than what we've got" As for the contention that 6" and 8" are pretty much the exact same size ...."that's what she said" 😇 That's a very fair take. He has indeed had games and sometimes series of games where he made good decisions and had the quick game flowing. What I meant was, this wasn't a newly observed tendency after the departure of Beasley. It was a tendency at times while Beasley was on the field.

Don't hassle him with your logic.

Isn't Gesicki really more like a big WR than a TE, eg not a good blocker?

OK, I'll play. If they can bring Singletary back at a reasonable contract, I think they should. Of the rest list above, I think the Bills may offer Klein and Lawson vet cap benefit contracts (or may already have vet cap benefit offers out there to them), but they'll take their time about signing because they'll want to see if any better offers emerge as FA goes on. They might do the same for Quessenbury, but Damn! I'd like to see them try for an upgrade at backup tackle. Kumerow and Phillips are still rehabbing from surgery and I expect the Bills would wait to sign them to see how their rehab progresses, if they're interested. For those unfamiliar, a veteran cap benefit or veteran salary benefit contract is one where the vet is offered a 1 year contract at vet minimum for their years of experience and no more than ~$152k of signing bonus, but they count against the cap as a player with 2 years of experience plus bonus. It's a way to encourage teams to keep lower-tier players with more than 2 years of experience on their roster.

Wasn't Dean Marlowe leading the league in missed tackles when he played?

I thought it was pretty telling that the team started Dodson in place of Edmunds earlier in the season vs. Pitts, brought him in when Edmunds got hurt vs Minn and 100% vs Cleveland, and liked that so much they promptly went out and signed the aging AJ Klein when he became available, then had him play after 1 week to re-acclimate to the system when Edmunds was still out vs. Detroit. In other words, if "who will replace Edmunds?" is the question, I don't think the Bills actions in 2022 say that they view Dodson as the answer. Terrel Bernard, OTOH, was not asked to replace Edmunds. He replaced Milano when he was out vs. the Jets, and lets just say ...it did NOT go well. That's not to say an off-season of NFL type strength training and conditioning won't help, or that maybe?? it would go better if he were trying to replace Edmunds and not Milano but let me just say - from what we saw when he tried to replace Milano against the Jets - If "Plan B" (for Bernard) is the Bills plan to replace Edmunds, then I think it's a Bad Plan and they'd better quickly develop Plan A and plan C.

As of mid-February, the Bills were $18.13M over the cap. The Bills addressed this with: -converting salary to amortizable bonus for Allen, Miller, and Diggs, said to free up $21.1M, $10.6M, and $5.4M respectively (total: $37.1M) -extending Matt Milano for 2 years, said to free up $6M in current year cap -negotiating a salary reduction/conversion to roster bonus/incentives for Nyheem Hines, per Spotrac this seems to free up $1.2M This sums to $44.3M in cap savings, leaving the Bills with $26M in cap space after clearing the overage. The Bills have new signings: Connor McGovern $4M this season Deonte Harty $3.75M this season Zane Anderson $0.95 this season Total $8.69M in new signings, leaves us $17.48M Tendered Dane Jackson right of first refusal, $2.74M Total $2.74M tenders, leaving us $14.74M Re-signed Ike Boettger for 1.18M, Sam Martin for $1.67M, Matakevich and Dodson for $1.8 and $2M, and Cam Lewis for $1.19M Total $7.83M for reported re-signings, leaving us $6.9M of cap space by my calculation Out of this, we must subtract whatever Poyer's 2023 cap and Kyle Allen's 1 yr contract may be. Here's where I need the help: Spotrac, which seems to have everyone's contract or renegotiation captured as above EXCEPT Poyer and Kyle Allen, shows the Bills as having $16.36M of cap. What or who am I missing? I would love to believe we have $16.4M cap before the Poyer and Kallen signings get taken off

Bobby, California state income tax rates max out at 12.3%of the amount over $677k vs NYS 9.65% of the amount over $1M rising to 10.9% of the amount over $25M. If Poyer was looking for lower taxes, California is Not That Place. I think Poyer is too smart to want to play for Josh McDaniels, but maybe that's just me.

Like I said, "all's fair in love and FA". But Poyer was making it seem as though it was all on the press to interpret it that way, when he clearly pointed them in that direction with his stuff about Tua and his birthday party.

That would all be nice. Yeah, the Bills are not a power-blocking run team. FWIW though Sal Capaccio quoted him as saying the plan is for him to play LG: Same. I just have the sinking feeling Beane will be drafting LB, DL and safety. His mouth says "we've got to protect the QB" and "we've got to have a run game besides Josh Allen" but his draft board doesn't seem to line up with that.

You might be surprised...

Poyer is being a bit coy about Miami. He had an interview where he talked about what good friends he is with Tua and how he was invited to some party where the Miami coaches were going to be and he'd put on his best coat for the occasion to make a good impression or some such, prompting Mike McDaniel to be questioned and respond "we aren't in the business of tampering". So if there was an assumption that Miami was a priority destination for him, he helped to create that assumption. It's All Good - All's fair in love and free agency. Edit: it was Poyer's podcast, and the party was Tua's Birthday party Yeah, no, it wasn't just something the press and fans made up out of "Phin Air" so to speak.

Beane does seem overenthralled by smurfs who can be neutralized with physical corner play in the big games where the refs allow holding.

So who that is still available in FA do you want at WR and on OL? I was intrigued by Parris Campbell, but I see the Giants just signed him, damn their eyes (I think we're putting our faith in the Pocket Rocket, Harty, anyway)

If we trade Oliver, we need to sign 2 3TDT. He's our only starting-caliber 3TDT under contract currently, Jordan Phillips being a FA with a battered wing.