Beck Water

So Neal's calling card is that he was said (at least a year ago-ish) to be the fastest player on the team. He's a ST gunner (I think - where's @GunnerBill to set us straight on all the ST roles?) or at least filled in for Kumerow, he was taking 77% of the ST snaps. He's our dime back, and Taron Johnson's backup at nickel. So he's versatile. Personally, I don't think the Bills see him as a looming decision. $400 bonus really isn't much in the scheme of things. Neal has 3 roles on the team, so why not bring him into camp and keep him until you have someone else you like better in at least 2 of 3? I think the reason the Bills saved McKenzie's bonus is that they signed someone who can fill his role and they think will be better. I don't see that as having happened with Neal. Only to people who don't value ST which (checks notes) would not include Beane or McDermott

Looks like Bill Belicheck has a sense of humor too: https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-isaiah-mckenzie-release-cut-rumors-new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-free-agency

You do know it's probably not the same people, right? Plenty of fans get outraged at anyone criticizing their team, including "us Bills fans" Can we quit with the "oh my god Bills fans" like we're some homogeneous mass? Some fans don't want to hear any criticism of the team or players. "Fan" is short for "fanatic" defined as "a person motivated by extreme unreasonable enthusiasm". I'm Shocked Shocked to find we have fans like that! Other so-called fans have to take a dump on anything they can. Very few of our players are good enough; the FO can't draft, they make bad choices on who to sign, etc etc. It's a mystery how the Bills have had a #1 or #2 defense 3 of the last 4 years when none of our players are worth a 2nd round pick. It's the flip side of extreme unreasonable enthusiasm I guess: extreme unreasonable criticism. Then there are those who try to be more centric and see both sides. People approach things differently, Stop the Press.

I personally think last season it was Mahomes, then a handful of QB (Allen, Burrows, Herbert, Hurts) of which group I'd put Allen first but I understand arguments, then Rodgers. Lifetime, I can understand putting Rodgers at the head of the current QB, but his level of play was not as good last season. What I think gores people's ox about Beasley is that he wants to opine on subjects where he lacks expertise (OK, his right) but he doesn't want to hear it from fans who opine on matters where he truly has expertise (like football, and OK, the fans right)

You're almost right as far as defensive snaps, but that was because he was primarily backing up Milano. Milano only missed 5 snaps the rest of the season and that was against the Bears where most of the defensive starters were pulled at the end of the 35-13 game. My guess is that Bernard looked slow because he was trying to process what he saw and convert it to what he was supposed to be doing, and not because of lack of actual physical speed. In other words, that OODA loop thing (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act). Milano and other veterans go from Observe to Act because placing the observation in context and knowing what their role is in that context has become automatic. Bernard was thinking too much. Once he becomes more experienced, there's a good chance he won't need to think and he'll speed up, but it'll probably take a season+ of play just as it did for Edmunds. And of course, maybe he won't get there: some players do and some don't. As far as overall snaps, Bernard played 70% of the ST snaps the last part of the season.

OK, basic RAS question: I somehow didn't pick up on height and weight being one of 10 factors in RAS. How does that work?

That seems contrarian, but You Do You. I don't love the people I love any less when they anger others, but I don't find it particularly admirable. Why the quotation marks? They're fans. They don't represent all fans, certainly, fans aren't a uniform block. That's kinda where Cole went wrong a few years back, kind of painting Bills fans with a broad brush when he was likely dealing with a loud handful. I grant, it only takes a small # to make a large stink. On the other hand - most etymologists feel "fan" is short for "fanatic" "Fanatic" is defined as "a person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause." Huge surprise that some Bills fans are motivated by extreme enthusiasm for their favorite QB and will tolerate no apparent criticism at all. Cole Beasley has apparently been motivated by extreme enthusiasm for Aaron Rodgers (now) and a couple of his own opinions (then), so he ought to have some empathy there - "brothers under the skin" so to speak.

See, this is what I meant when I said "hate" was the appropriate descriptive of some Bills fans sentiments.

Well... to be fair, you hear stuff from slim ass, some talent fans too. But neither of them can typically do what NFL players can do. Anyone drafted in the NFL (or signed as an UDFA) are at the far upper edge of the bell curve for athleticism in the population. We all know someone who was The Man, the most amazing athlete no one else in the area could keep up with or cover. And sometimes that guy turns out to be Zeke Elliot, but more often that guy can't cut the mustard in DII ball. Been there, seen that. Brandolini's Law aka the "bull#### Asymmetry Principle", applies here: "The amount of energy needed to refute bull#### is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it." So sometimes the criticism is over the top, off base, and ill founded, sure, and those fans would better keep quiet. But fundamentally, in all walks of life, people who can't themselves do it feel free to criticize those who can (project managers, lawyers, teachers, mechanics, plumbers, etc). Do you think, as a principle, that no one should criticize someone else if they can't do it themselves? I can't do concrete work myself. The contractors who repaired our front steps once did an incredibly poor job. I don't think I needed to be a concrete contractor to see that it was poorly done by about half a dozen objective criteria, starting with the fact that the steps were higher at the front than the back when they were done, instead of level or slightly sloped to the front for drainage. I don't think doctors or lawyers or contractors should be above criticism simply because the critics can't do it themselves. You? Same thing - fans should be able to criticize sports figures even if they can't do it themselves. But it's more appropriate if the criticism isn't founded on sweeping generalizations, and has some basis in objective reality. A 5'7" 170 lb WR doesn't stay in the league 6 years by being bad at football. The Bills think they found someone better at what they want McKenzie to do, so they moved on - Time Will Tell.

I don't suppose their catch % has any meaning for you. Have you found your wallet yet? I don't suppose the names around them on drop % have any meaning for you either https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving_advanced.htm Davis 9.7% just a little better than Darius Slayton 9.9% and a bit worse than Deebo Samuel 9.7% McKenzie 9.6% just a little better than Deebo Samuel and a bit worse than Amari Cooper 9.1% and Courtland Sutton 8.3% Should they have dropped less sure. The Bills as a team had a high drop %. Maybe it has something to do with a QB who doesn't like to throw with touch, especially when it's cold and wet? The biggest offender on the Bills was actually Devin Singletary with 11.5% and a bunch of announcers saying "he's got to catch throws like that", but I never hear him taken to task here I actually thought his route running had developed quite a lot, shows what I know I guess? I think the real problem for him is reading zone D and chosing option routes Also sometimes between him and Gabe Davis, someone was running the wrong route 'cuz too often, they wound up too close together in a way unlikely to be the play design. Can't tell you who (didn't always look to be McKenzie but that's just a guess)

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2023/03/17/chiefs-free-agency-isaiah-mckenzie-enticing-return-option-market/ Now that's genuinely humorous

Ouch

I agree with you…but Man, in his presser, Beane sure talked like he’s got Gabe Davis second contract all drafted and ready to sign and is planning the money moves to make it work. He talked like next year’s WR lineup is Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Harty.

C’mon man. Beasley played 66% of the snaps, had 65 receptions for 672 yds the year before he signed with the Bills. He definitely saw his career improve in Buffalo, but he wasn’t “wasting away on the Cowboys bench” - they just didn’t want to sign him for what he wanted.

He.has to get off on it. If there’s anything more predictable than Cole Beasley getting into it with the Twitter Intelligensia, it’s some folks here generalizing from the Twitter Intelligensia to “all” [Fill in the blank - Bills Fans, blah blah]

I believe you. But somehow I think Denver wouldn't. Just wait, the season hasn't started yet. On defense, certainly. But who will step up on the offensive side?

Good question. I believe franchise tags are fully guaranteed, but probably not against retirement, so he'd have to give his $32.6M back to take the $20M/yr gig you suggest. I think he can do that math. What's Your Point? 🌑🌙🌖

Actually, the last time I checked, passing yards were not positively correlated with wins. TDs, yes, those win games - but they don't count more if the #2 WR scores them vs. the RB or the TE or a QB sneak. Different teams have different ways to get the ball in the EZ. I'm not sure who you're talking to here. The point people are trying to make to you is, there are a bunch of metrics for assessing how a WR is doing. The WR job is, get open and catch the ball when it's thrown in his direction. Deciding that the most important things to look at are yards and TDs, and excluding all the WR who didn't catch enough TDs, amounts to cherry picking metrics. Let's take it to an absurdity. Suppose a guy has 3 great games a season. He gains 125, 150, and 200 yds and scores 2, 3, and 4 TDs in those 3 games. He plays in 12 other games. In 6 of them he makes 2 receptions for 25 yds per game and no TDs and in 6 of them he makes 3 receptions for 30 yds. He's got 805 receiving yards and 7 TDs! He's GREAT! Only a few other #2 WR have that many receiving yards and that many TDs! But the fact is, he hasn't contributed consistently in 12 out of the 15 games he's played. Now every receiver has up-and-down games. Diggs has games where he only has 2 or 3 receptions. But to help sustain a top offense, the #2 really has to be a bit more consistent. Davis had a lot of targets last season. He only hauled in about half of them. Now some of that isn't his fault - bad throws from Josh. But some of it is. That's actually a good question. I have the impression that McDermott and Dorsey respected him. McDermott called him "mentally tough" in one interview. That's high praise from McDermott. Dorsey sounded very sincere in one interview defending McKenzie, saying "he has done everything we have asked him to do". I think the more relevant trust issue is that Josh didn't trust him against zone coverage, for whatever reason. I think a lot of that is on McKenzie. I think he's a trash-talking Motor Mouth, and that isn't very inviting for the team's big star to sit down with and watch extra film and talk about how they're going to attack different coverages.

I certainly don't disagree with you that the offense needs a serious investment A 5th year guy who hasn't broken 1000 yds total in all 4 of his years may be a good player who hasn't had his chances yet - but he's sort of in the space of "Bonus, if he works out" TBH, I don't really know what's typical for a slot around the league. Are there stats for slot receivers broken out somewhere? It's not the output of a top-5 slot, for sure. McKenzie clearly wasn't in Beasley's league for contributions Beasley made in Buffalo - but if we look at Beasley's career and exclude his rookie season, in 3 out of 6 seasons with Dallas he had fewer than 42 catches and 423 yds. In the first season where Beasley had more than 50% of the snaps, 2015, he had 52 catches for 536 yds, which is better -33.5 ypg vs 28.5 ypg - but not over-the-moon, out of sight better. He got more targets that year, too - 75 targets vs 65 for McK this year. Beasley was one of the top slot receivers in the league while he was in Buffalo, and maybe our expectations, filtered through that lens, are a bit out of whack. If we want to replace one of the top slots in the league, clearly we didn't do that, but we may find that Shakir or another player signed to play slot fall short as well.

Well, given that the Ravens gave him their non-exclusive franchise tag of $32.4M, they'll expect him to defer any pursuit of the career path you suggest until after the close of the 2023 season.

My biggest concern. There's a reason that athletes this size don't normally make it to the pros

I have to ask: are you enough of a rap fan to be able to distinguish? I mean, I didn't like most of what I've heard, but rap is just not my thing

If we can be factual a second, McKenzie had roughly double the snap count last season (54% vs 24% in 2021). He more than doubled his Y/G, 1st downs, and receptions. He factually had 245 more yards. So no, he didn't contribute what Beasley contributed in the slot, not even close, nor what the Bills needed from a #3 WR, but he didn't have a diminished return, either. It's not necessary to exaggerate to make the former point. I'm not sure Davis is a bad investment, either. He's a late 4th round draft pick who has shown he can play in the NFL. Any 4th round pick who can play in the NFL is a good investment - something like 10-15% of the guys drafted there can play. He's playing on the 4th year of a late 4th round salary, so it's not like we're breaking the bank. But he didn't step up as we hoped a #2 would do. Some of his bad catch % is on Josh - Josh would target him when he was pretty well covered or on low % or off target throws. But Davis had his chances to make game changing plays. Sometimes he did. Sometimes he didn't. Bottom line, we aren't getting enough from him, as we didn't get enough from McKenzie. To listen to Beane, however, he has full confidence in Davis as the Bills #2 and is concerned about how to re-sign him. So 🤷‍♀️

I think @JoPoy88 has it right. Beasley Luuuuuuuuves him his Twitter controversies. He can't stay off of it.

That's a pretty specific pair of criteria for evaluating WR. What about # of receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G, stuff like that? The # of TDs a WR has seems pretty heavily influenced by how the team operates and how they operate in the RZ vs the WR's overall contributions to the team. It just seems like cherry-picking a pair of metrics by which you can claim kudos for Davis, while ignoring things like # receptions, catch %, drops, Y/G and such which also are metrics of how a WR contributes, but where Davis doesn't measure up so well.