Beck Water

You left out the 2021 3 game suspension for drunk driving Look, obviously, the Bills aren't concerned about re-injury risk; they're paying him like a guy they expect to have available for 15-16 games. But, the fact is, he hasn't seen a very high workload to date. Let's leave out the turf toe season and just look at the season he was available. The Saints had 3107 offensive plays in those 3 seasons. Harty was on the field for 533 of them, 17%. In his career, he's also missed 40% of his possible games. Now maybe he'll be able to hold up and contribute if he's used more by the Bills (and his contract/incentives say they intend to give him a real shot at WR). Another perspective could look at Harty and say "he's had 4 years to make it through a full season, and for different reasons he hasn't managed yet". I hope that's wrong but I understand the logic. From what Beane was saying in his presser yesterday (2 days ago? losing track) it sounded as though they expected Shakir to be the #3 and Harty to be the #4 guy.

It’s not impossible, but I’m thinking Jacksonville is a possibility

I hope you’re right. It wouldnt entirely shock me if we used McK cap $$ to re-sign Kumerow or Taiwan Jones. Mind you I’m not suggesting this nor is it what I’d like to see

But fitting the observed sentiments.

Now you’re just making ***** up. That happened with Beasley, by the way. Josh improvised a pitch to McK that wasn’t in the play, and that’s never been one of the picks Josh was criticized for.

I can’t disagree but where is that “better” coming from, ask I

Harty? His contract drips “we intend to play you at WR” Will he be durable is my question

His contract about as low as it could go and not be vet minimum. His catch % 65% just fine for less gadget tosses and more use as WR. The reason he’s gone is that Bills are paying Harty 50% more to be an upgrade at the same position “durable fast Smurf”. The fast Smurf parts are for real, we’ll hope he hits the “durable upgrade”.

Why would he do that? And what would it really accomplish for Beane? He needs to know what he's spent, and like any other avenue of business, if it isn't in writing it doesn't count.

No word yet on contract. Just thought it was worth putting out there that Ford has been signed by one of the teams we keep extolling as a team we should emulate for their OL moves. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cody-ford-29074/

No. If they're earned, they count against next year's cap. In his presser, Beane said about $9M. He also made the point that they need space to sign the rookie class and to cover the PS once the regular season starts. But I think that's standard Beane poor-mouthing.

It's pretty clear when you look at his incentives, they intend Harty to be primarily a WR. Beane stated in his presser that they see Hardy fitting into their "#4 role" as a WR, meaning a guy who can flex and play all the roles. That was kind of McKenzie's role in 2021 and may have been intended to be part of his role in 2022 before Crowder went on IR and Shakir took a while to develop in the slot. To me, he looks like an oft-injured smurf but, either our FO knows their stuff and he'll be great, or they don't. They have crashed-and-burned before bringing in guys at that price point who they thought would contribute, but who didn't pan out - Corey Coleman and OJ Howard come to mind. Beane made it pretty clear they view him as more than that - as both a vertical threat, and a guy who can play inside (eg from the slot). I just worry that he's small enough to be neutralized by physical coverage. Some here worry about Shakir as an outside threat because of his 29" arms and 9.5" hands, what does it say about Hardy's chances to fend off press man and hold off a corner with 28 1/4" arms and 8 3/4" hands? John Brown struggled, and he had 30.5" arms. I'm just going to be very disappointed if the Bills don't make more of an effort to upgrade at WR.

Oh, Gosh, Setting yourself up for dissatisfaction there, aren't ya? What a successful FA looks like to me, is going into the draft with a roster of guys who can play OK at every position, so that there's some BPA flexibility and competition. I also want to see us make significant investment in our OL, through both FA or the draft. So to me, our FA to date has left several holes: 1. I'd like to see an investment in a FA RT who can push or challenge Spencer Brown for the starting role. I think a 2 year vet will almost always beat out a rookie in training camp these days, I want to see a canny vet giving Brown a real fight for the job. And yeah, I would love to see a top tier C/G drafted but I don't see us signing a big name at this point. 2. MLB. Beane tried to be persuasive that our next starting MLB is on the roster and is named Dodson, Bernard, or Spector. I'm unpersuaded. I think it's a big hole 3. DT. If McDermott is running the defensive show, he loves his DT rotation so we need a 3TDT. Unpersuaded the answer is on our roster. We need a WR. Greg Cosell, who I respect, made a point that the Bills need a true "3 level wide receiver" by which he means a guy who can be a true vertical threat to catch passes deep, run crisp routes over the middle, and run short option routes from the slot. Now maybe Deonte Hardy is that guy, but I am un-persuaded. I just hope he stays healthy and contributes. However at this point, I think we need to draft and develop a WR

I think people under-estimate how important run blocking is, even to a power back like Henry. I'm not saying I wouldn't love a power run game, but it requires commitment - building an OL that can sustain it, practicing etc. Henry would be a 1 year rental at this point and as a trade - who or what do you want to give up for him?

Negative. 1 year, $4.7M. Our midget has a lower cap hit at $3.745M this year.

Isn't he like, slow AF? OK I looked it up.... 4.6 second 40 while Edmunds was 4.54. FWIW, when asked about LB, Beane specifically stated "sometimes your answer is on your roster". He mentioned Dodson, he mentioned Spector and Bernard having a year in the system and coming in more prepared for the NFL and for the Bills defensive system. Then he talked about cap casualties and free agencies and "maybe in the draft". So I think those of us expecting a significant FA signing like Bobby Wagner to help put us over the top and really lock down that LB position, are going to be disappointed.

So listening to what Beane said, I would tend to agree with 2. So long, Isaiah. -Foreshadowing - "we may still see some roster cut downs" -Mentioning Harty's role - sees him as a #4 on the field with Diggs, Davis, Shakir. Says he's really good at tracking the ball and he's a true vertical threat who can also run option routes from the slot. In the past has said of McKenzie "he needs to track the ball better". -Response to a direct question "good question" (as per usual, we couldn't hear the Q other than McKenzie's name) - "still sorting that out - love Isaiah, he's been great for us, we're talking internally to make sure we don't have too much duplication, I think we'll know in the next couple of days" That ain't exactly "we'd love to keep him, we still think he has a role here and a lot to contribute". That's "thanks for your service, Buddy, Good-bye" Common sense, the Bills just brought in a new WR coach who had nothing to do with developing McKenzie (or not), no personal relationship to him and the Bills just spent their 2nd biggest FA investment on a smurf WR who has a ton of per-catch incentives they got to give him a fair chance to earn. Now personally, I think they just brought in a smurf with a risky injury history (Oh - and he was suspended 3 games for DUI in 2021, after 3 years in the NFL to get "smarter"), so it would make sense to keep some competition for him going into camp and also, a guy who has proven himself pretty durable. But that doesn't sound like what Beane has in mind. McKenzie is owed a $250,000 roster bonus on the 3rd day of the new league year (in other words, tomorrow). So you would think, if they're gonna cut him, they'd cut him tomorrow to maximize the savings. It'll be interesting to see if the Jaguars pick him up since Chad Hall, who does have an investment in McKenzie's development, is now their WR coach. Doug Pederson is just the offensively creative SOB to figure out how to use him (and scary enough to keep McKenzie focused). Now what I don't like about what I heard, and granted Beane has no obligation to tip his hand, is that it sounds as though they're Done in FA at WR and Done at OL. 😒

Fun fact: the Bills averaged 17.7 rushes per game by an RB They averaged 7.8 from their QB. Now, you're never gonna get Josh to stop rushing all together, nor should we try. But 2 fewer rushes per game from Allen and the Bills woulda been at 20 rushes per game by an RB last season. Note: not arguing for or against acquiring King Henry, just providing some rush attempt context.

Seriously. Beane: FIX THE OL!

Hines is an RB - one of only two on the team right now. He was also the primary KR and PR last season Harty could return kicks and punts, but all the incentives in his contract are about receptions, which leads me to believe the intent is to use him primarily as a WR. Last season, it was thought to be reasonable to have McKenzie and Crowder both on the roster, filling somewhat different roles. So maybe - they will both be on the roster, not because "Beane is terrible at asset management" but because they are seen as filling different roles. As a basis in fact, they take up just under $10M in cap space. If you cut McKenzie, you save a whole $1.75 - $2.2M. That might happen, but the cost to take him into camp is pretty low - $350k - so I don't know why one wouldn't do that and move on, if they're going to, AFTER they see for sure what Harty gives them. Having two guys who can return kicks and punts on the team, and two guys who can fill the small speedy WR role, and have them just be 3 guys instead of 4 could be seen as "good asset management".

He would, but he can't find his wallet I just turned around to check. Yeah, I still got a slide rule sticking out between books on the shelves behind me. I used to use a circular slide rule as well.

LOL I'm glad you did, his post wasn't granular enough for me (meaning no critique, different wording makes sense to different folks). Yours is. Pay decrease on restructure was Settle, perhaps? So, yes, that's a big part of it. Those 9 guys pushed off about $6.6M of cap adding from Spotrac. $6.6M plus $6.9M is $13.5M, add in restructure you brought up gets us to $14.1M. That's still off from what Spotrac is reporting ($16.4M), but it's enough closer that I feel like I understand what's going on, which is helpful to me.

I think the general fan consensus was that our OL was Not Good Enough last season, especially the right side. So far the only OL signing is to replace aging vet G Saffold, who played poorly last year, with former Cowboys backup G Conner McGovern. I don't think that's good enough, so I call Big Hole, at least 1 maybe 2. Right now we got one RB with 500 yds on 90 carries, 25% of the snaps which is fine for as far as it goes, but will his pass protection improve enough and will he manage to sustain a higher workload? Our other RB had -3 yds on 6 carries. Yet we've drafted RBs in the 2nd or 3rd round for 3 of the last 4 drafts with nothing much to show for it; it sets my teeth on edge that people claim there's RB talent in the late rounds but we don't seem to find it there. Anyway, I kind of feel as though there's a hole at RB. Greg Cosell did a podcast at the combine with Brown and Tasker where they discussed his belief that the Bills badly need a "3 level WR" https://www.buffalobills.com/video/one-bills-live (pretty good podcast, give it a listen). If you feel signing a 5'6" 4-year vet is enough in that regard, I don't. So that's another hole. Last hole that comes to mind, is that right now we only have one starting-quality 3TDT on the roster in Ed Oliver, whom many want to trade. Since McDermott is determined upon a rotation, we need at least another quality DT there. So that's 5 holes at least.

Just a note that one of the stats folks are touting on this signing is Hardy's great YAC. Typically, players don't get great YAC by getting out of bounds and just generally giving themselves up. So if you want Hardy to start doing that to protect himself, you're wanting him to give up on one of the factors that folks are pointing to saying "better than what we've got" As for the contention that 6" and 8" are pretty much the exact same size ...."that's what she said" 😇 That's a very fair take. He has indeed had games and sometimes series of games where he made good decisions and had the quick game flowing. What I meant was, this wasn't a newly observed tendency after the departure of Beasley. It was a tendency at times while Beasley was on the field.

Don't hassle him with your logic.