Beck Water

For those who want a bit of a thoughtful analysis of the Bills statistically excellent D rather than a knee jerk hot take, this is pretty good: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-offseason-questions-how-can-the-defense-be-tweaked-to-get-over-playoff-hump/article_aaaa7c84-b398-11ed-b263-2742817ebae6.html

I don't think Darnold and Wentz have accepted that they're no longer starters in the NFL. They'll both be looking for a team where there's a chance they can start. That's not a dynamic I'd want in the locker room. Heinicke and Brisset are the best on that list, with Minshew a close 3rd.

I'd like to see a little backup on this statement. 2022 Head Coaches. Contention: 17 or more of them call offensive plays. Go.

It's not sterling results, but Holcomb has a year as DC calling defense in AZ and part of a year as DC in CAR

Historically, it doesn't necessarily work well when a HC takes on coordinator responsibilities. See Pederson, Doug for one recent example. Probably the smartest thing Daboll did was hire a real OC, because I guarantee Mike Kafka didn't leave QB coach/pass game coordinator for the KC Chiefs to be Daboll's dingleberry. However, my guess is that Senior Defensive Assistant Al Holcomb will take on the role of DC Also, we already have a Sr Offensive Assistant in Mike Shula. I don't think we need 2. It was corrected that the rumors he was not under contract are incorrect. Brandon Beane just stated that Leslie Frazier would have been the 2023 defensive coordinator of the Bills, had he wanted to coach.

The man deserves privacy, but it's possible he has a medical issue either for himself or for a family member, and realizes he can't do justice to medical treatment/support AND coaching.

More vocal about it, certainly, but at the end of the day Poyer will listen to his agents and not his wife. But yeah, Poyer knows he's coming to the end of his career. Buffalo sweetened his contract in 2022 as a "thank you", but he's gotta go for the best guaranteed $$ he can get.

It was injuries. He was playing between 40-60% of the snaps (95% when Elam was a healthy scratch) thru Thanksgiving. Then he had an oblique injury and was on IR for 4 games, inactive coming off (which is not unexpected for a guy coming off IR and trying to get up to speed)

Yeah, one thing to keep in mind when looking at the use of some of our rookies. When Matt Milano was a rookie and seeing regular playing time by mid-season, he was competing for snaps with Ramon Humber in his 6th year, on a defense in the bottom half of the league. Terrel Bernard is competing for snaps against two guys in the prime of their careers, on statistically a top defense.

That's actually a really good point. The people I know who work in construction all make very good money, so if they can barely pay their bills it's 'cuz they're a bit Extra with buying toys and running up debt. But, you're right, a lot of them are working in chronic pain from back or neck or knee injuries by their 30s, and they've only made a fraction of what Byron Jones has made at 30. Same thing with nurses and CNAs, they learn how to move and lift patients in the safest ways but still, by the time they're in their 30s chronic pain from back injuries are very common. And they don't get 5 months away from the floor to heal up, either. I also think, truth be told, that some of these football players may be standing in the way of their own healing processes with alcohol or recreational drugs or not paying attention to medical advice - didn't it come out that when Sammy Watkins foot fracture didn't heal up right it was because he took off his walking boot and was following his own training protocol instead of following the physician's instructions?

The players absolutely should consult the second opinions they have a contractual right to consult, but the man claims he could not forsee injuries playing a violent sport? If no amount of financial gain is worth the avoidable pain and disabilities, then....he could have stopped playing football after or during college, got a "little job" like us "little people", and forgone the $69.425M he's earned playing football

I've seen this argument before, and the overall numbrs are indeed relatively equal. The offensive contributions aren't helped by the fact that a number of the Bills high picks on offense - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, and Zack Moss - washed out. BUT when you look under the hood, there's a bit of a different story. Another thread linked an excellent article by Bruce Exclusive on this point: Here's the direct link to the actual actual article: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research He actually goes into the POINT VALUES expended in each draft at each position and sums it up by position and by offense or defense Now there's a caveat here, that he doesn't include the roughly 200 point equivalent of trading a 1st round pick for Stefon Diggs. BUT he's talking overall about young, cost controlled talent, and from that POV his conclusions are valid: 1) the Bills have NOT spent equally on offense vs defense 2) the Bills have particularly under- spent on OL vs DL and on WR vs RB or DB 3) he points that a good bit of the Bills offensive draft resources have in fact gone towards RBs, which is considered an inefficient use of resources given that RBs are regarded as a position at which it's relatively easy to acquire production Bottom line: while your high level view is correct, when one gets into the details of the VALUE of draft picks used, it's pretty clear that in fact the Bills have over-focused on DL, LB, and DB vs OL, WR, and TE. Frankly, this kind of response shows just as much superficial "groupthink" in a different way. There are people here who think that the Bills have overspent draft resources on D vs O and in particular underspent on OL, WR, and TE who can make a specific and cogent argument, as linked in another thread and laid out above. It's really not the same as knee-jerk coach-bashing, and even there, cogent and specific arguments can and have been made.

I doubt they did. But he may have rented an efficiency apartment or a hotel room near the stadium, a bunch of guys do that.

I do think there are shots he didn't take the 2nd half of the season because he wasn't confident in his ball placement, given the elbow. So I do think that impacted the Bills offense. But overall, you're correct that the overarching issue for Allen and the Bills is mental and not physical - Josh going for the "kill shot" all the time instead of taking the sure chain moving completion. And you're also correct that when I watch film, that's what I see - Dorsey catches a lot of heat for his play design, but often the play design features open guys underneath whom Allen doesn't appear to see. It's my biggest "unknown" about Dorsey. I think his play design and play calling can improve, sure. But what I don't know is if he and Joe Brady have what it takes to rein Allen in, or if they're stuck in this "we can't get on him for failing to take the underneath throws because he has the talent to make those crazy throws work". I say, not only can you get on him, you need to get on him. That attitude eventually doomed Russ Wilson and Carson Wentz.

Sure he could say more. He could say that his Instagram model wife loves South Florida where bikinis can be modeled outside most of the year, and that they own a big house in Florida - not sure where. Of course he wants to play in Florida. Agreed

This is going to be one of those "believe it or don't" things. I reached out to Kyle Trimble on Facebook when the news came out that Josh was playing in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, sharing the concerns that were expressed on this site at the time about the effect of golfing on the UCL injury. He said he didn't think it was an issue but would delve into it and possibly write about it. After delving, he was nice enough to get back to me and said, fundamentally, nothing to write about because it's a non-issue. Said Josh can play all the golf he wants because the principal stress from golfing is on the opposite side of the elbow and the forces are much lower with a golf swing than throwing a football at NFL velocities. Again, don't have anything written publicly or tweeted, so "believe it or don't", and since he's a PT, believe he knows what he's talking about or don't. "I refuse to believe" - in the words of Josh Allen "Okay" You and Josh are aligned since he hasn't used his elbow as an excuse either. There's a lot of wiggle room in "serious". No one is going to do surgery on a partially torn UCL that can heal on its own so if you define "serious" as "needing immediate surgery", it's not serious. But there's a lot of room between "needs immediate surgery" and "can be played through, but affects the player". Not needing surgery doesn't mean it isn't "serious" in the sense of impacting the player. I'd pay attention to what @JGMcD2 had to say about UCL injuries and PRP injections in the context of baseball, since that is "his lane".

I'll take this on. I'm trying to remember what show it was on - but basically the direct evidence we have to support this opinion comes from Josh himself. In an interview (I will keep letting it float through my mind, it MIGHT have been the Kyle Brandt's Basement show prior to the Bengals game?) Josh stated that after the injury, he had to return to a more lateral throwing motion because rotational throwing motion placed too much strain on his elbow and that it was only in the last "couple of weeks" that he'd been able to return to the mechanics he preferred. Now that might not mean very much, except in the context of interviews with Josh and others about the change in Josh's completion % between 2019 and 2020. Basically, part of the change was proper sequencing of his upper and lower body (hips firing first). Another part of it was becoming a rotational rather than a lateral or overhand thrower. There are multiple interviews where Josh has talked about this - a couple with Chris Simms, I think there's one with Fitz, some people who assess throwing motion say he changed. So basically, what Josh is saying is that mid-season, he had to return towards the mechanics of 2019 Josh, then at the end of the season try to work back to 2020. There's a second line of direct evidence supporting this, if you look up NexGen Stats charts. Unfortunately at this point they only have back as far as Week 6 and they don't have every week, but if you look at the overall completion percentage charts, there's a green area in the middle of the field between 10 and 20 yds in 2021 that's missing in 2022. It was also notable that Josh was off- target with some of his short "bunny" throws late this season. It was notable that this was a problem area for Josh in 2018 and 2019 which he improved in 2020. I don't think the Bills took out the "short game offense", but I do think it was limited after Josh's injury. As to what Dorsey did, can't tell you; my guess is that initially, Josh wasn't that clear on what impact it would have on him and played as though there was no impact, then as a couple of games went on, he and Dorsey probably had a "come to Jesus" meeting where they discussed detailed data on Josh's completion % to different areas on different plays and Dorsey may have tweeked the offense. Others may disagree, that's fine, but IME good PTs typically are able to pinpoint exactly what motions will hurt or exacerbate different injuries, much more so than MDs. That's a generalization, and based on my personal experience and that of my friends, I feel certain there are MDs who are better and PTs who are worse. He would not have insight into Josh's pain tolerance, that's true. Last, but not least, I believe there is far more to it than just Josh's elbow. There are impacts of the way Josh was reading and processing what he sees in Dorsey's offense that have nothing to do with his UCL.

The conclusion of Florio's piece is the opposite of "more trade talk". Florio is saying that it does not make sense for the Bills to trade Diggs:

$6-8M for a guy who hasn't had a good season since 2020 and is gonna be 31? Maybe the ACL recovery hindered him last season, or maybe he just doesn't have the same speed and agility. I don't think we can afford that.

Um, about that....

That's still a *****-ton of cap for a team that's currently $9M over the cap

Gentry was released from the Bills PS on January 17th. He was not offered a reserve/futures contract. So he may be tired of the Bills practice squad, but even if he wasn't, it no longer had a place for him. Edit: for anyone else curious, NFL practice squad members apparently make considerably more than typical CFL players. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/cfl/news/cfl-players-highest-salaries-list-zach-collaros/vexjkxuyehdigi1lb0btvwwm Estimated that average players make between $60,000 and $100,000/yr In contrast, practice squad players in the NFL make $11,500/wk so $207,000 for an 18-game season Significant salary cut

So looking at Spotrac, initially it appears that Rodgers is un-tradeable. $99.8M dead cap https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/ Fully guaranteed But There are these big "option bonuses". $105M of them over 3 years. Whose option?

Our record was, in fact, improved over previous years with Rex - 8-8 and 7-9 We had achieved a 9-7 record two times previously during the playoff drought - 2004 and 2014. So there is an element of chance that we didn't get in to the playoffs in 2014 (owing to other teams in the conference having 10-6 and 10-5-1 records), sure. There are always elements of chance in sports. But as for disingenuous - it's a fact that "your blind grandpa" hasn't managed to win enough games to see playoffs all the time with some other excellent QB under center. Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and Philip Rivers would be 3 examples of QB capable of winning championships, whose teams didn't win enough games to see playoffs. The fact is, a team needs a decent defense to win consistently, and we've Then it's a fact that Brian Daboll just won coach-of-the-year for taking the Giants to a 9-7-1 record. I guess by your lights that's not an achievement? Seems like you're pretty focused on not giving McDermott credit

The way a guy gets lots of targets is he helps his team move the chains and sustain drives. If a guy can't haul in contested balls or even drops them, he's not going to help his team move the chains and sustain drives. If the team can't sustain drives, he won't get more targets