Beck Water

Good post. Right now Spotrac shows us at $13.6, with the dead cap from Saffold and Phillips taken out of the top 51 and everyone but Dane Jackson included. Dane's contract must be less than $2.7, let's call it $1.6 for the sake of argument - that gives us $12. You mighta mis-heard Beane. The rookie top-51 cap is $5M, not $3 - Spotrac has it if you scroll down the Bills page, I learned that after I calculated it myself 😲 It's early days to worry about PS - we have to worry about that at the same time as we have to worry about the 53 man roster, not top-51, but I thought Beane said last year they needed $5M. Some crunching, if we have 6 vets earning the max and 10 players earning rookie PS scale, that'd be $4.2M. I would expect Beane to extend a player or two to lower their current cap hit to cover that, and generate a bit of reserve. Bottom line, we have some money left to sign FA or make a trade - at least $7-8M. so if Beane doesn't do it - it's because he doesn't want to do it.

This last part is absolutely true. "Nobody Cares, Work Harder" as Harbaugh would say. Ya gotta play the hand you're dealt, fly the weather you find, etc etc. But if you agree that Allen was NOT in a poor situation offensively starting out in B'lo relative to Mahomes starting out in KC, and that KC's defense "has also sucked most of the time Mahomes has been there", I have a beach cottage in Batavia NY for sale, Wanna buy? Neither are true.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Who a player is, especially on OL, is a moving target. Because a player has been better, doesn't necessarily mean that he will be better. Father time is undefeated and injuries do take a toll. Last year, we brought in an aged vet with an injury history to give us quality LG play for a year. It didn't work out. Seumalo is an aging vet (not as aged as Saffold, but will be close at the end of his contract) with a distinguished career and a significant injury history. McGovern is a young player with development ahead of him. The Bills chose to go with a younger player, whom they feel is a better fit on their line. I had high hopes for Saffold, and it didn't work out. We'll see how this works, but I can't look at it in the abstract and say "Seumalo has been a great guard on a great OL therefore he automatically will be better than a guy who filled in capably for the Cowboys." I will be very disappointed if the Bills don't still add a couple of players - an OT and if they don't draft OL fairly high.

Let's wait and see how the details unfold. In theory, McGovern's contract is similar at 3 yrs/ $22M. But his cap hit this season is $4k, and he's guaranteed $8k. Those are always the details that matter - what is this year's cap hit, what is actually guaranteed. Also, Seumalo is 29. McGovern is 25. If the Bills feel Kromer can develop McGovern and he can lock down LG long term, it would explain in part why they chose him. The $400k savings per year are chicken feed, but let's see the details of Seamulo's contract. All $8k/yr contracts are not equal.

I think there's a lot of FA left before comp formulas come into play. Thanks for the link and the education though!

Oh, wow that is total Weak Sauce. You'll make a general statement, blah blah' someone will refute it with specific points and examples - "Too Long to Respond to All of This" blah blah. I always use points not yards for defensive ranking because....wait for it...points are what win games. That isn't an arguable, so to speak, point. Especially when a team is ahead, a D can give up all kinds of yards, and it means nothing. But make an agenda out of it - then you get to explain how you looking at yards and IGNORING points when you said KC's D has "sucked the whole time Mahomes has been here" isn't a Big Honkin' Agenda on your part. You're a piece of work, you know that? I started out saying, quote: "I don't think people are arguing that Mahomes isn't the top QB in the league right now. I think he cemented that by changing a lot of his offensive cast (still has Kelce though) and still winning a Championship." And you respond "stop trying to discredit PM". I'm clearly not trying to discredit Mahomes, I'm pointing out that your statement "it’s weird that people act like Allen was in soem (sic) terrible situation and mahomes had so many advantages" is Bunk, Period. Allen WAS placed in a terrible situation relative to Mahomes, who took over the keys of a top-5 offense with experienced coaching, top players, and a top backup. The reason you aren't going to respond to all of this is not because it's "too long", but because you can't, not rationally. There's no question that a lot of young QBs are hurt by constant churn on the coaching staff and especially at OC. But the point is, Daboll did not start off as "COTY" in 2018. He had a learning curve at OC, a learning curve as a QB mentor, and a learning curve as a Leader of Men. All one has to do to demonstrate that is listen to his interviews in 2018 and 2019 and compare them to interviews in 2020 and 2021. One of the smartest things Daboll did as HC was hire a good OC (Pat Mahomes QB coach as a matter of fact) and a good DC, then give them space.

I don't think people are arguing that Mahomes isn't the top QB in the league right now. I think he cemented that by changing a lot of his offensive cast (still has Kelce though) and still winning a Championship. Relative to Mahomes, Allen was in a terrible situation: 1. Mahomes got a full rookie year to watch and learn behind a very capable veteran QB with one of the top offensive coaches in the league at his side. 2. In year 2, 2018 Mahomes was given the keys to a ready-to-drive sports car of an offense that had been 6th in points and 5th in yards in 2017. Kareem Hunt at RB 1300 yds; Tyreek Hill at WR; Travis Kelce at TE. Decent OL book-ended by Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, Mitch Morse at C. Mahomes ELEVATED that sports car and made it work better, but the car and all its components were there. 3. When Mahomes did take over, he had another capable and experienced veteran in Chad Henne backing him up and helping him on the sideline, and a very good, experienced QB coach in Mike Kafka In contrast, Allen was declared not ready to start and took #3 snaps most of the preseason, then was flung into the fire halfway through Game 1 when it was clear Peterdude was still a hot mess under center. His OL couldn't block - Vlad Ducasse at LG got him impaled, Russell Bodine was a mess at C, Miller and Mills on the R side - Aye Yi Yi. It was Daboll's first year with the Bills as OC and he had a bad track record elsewhere. I couldn't figure out what he was trying to accomplish on many plays, even allowing for poor execution. Allen was throwing to Zay Jones, Robert Foster (who couldn't run routes or track the ball) and Fat Kelvin Benjamin. Frankly, I think Allen picked up some bad habits that year he's still working to shake, such as bailing from the pocket and trying to make things happen himself because he had no one else he could count on. Daboll improved a lot from 2019-2021 but even there, there would still be a play or a handful of plays every 2nd or 3rd game where I'd be "what were you trying to do?" - that 3rd and 5 backward pass to Singletary in the 4th Q vs Pittsburgh would be an example. Even McDermott couldn't extenuate that one!!!!! The line has improved, but it's never IMHO been a top line - middle of the pack, no more - and we've never had a good run game besides Allen. The WR improved in 2019 and more with the addition of Diggs, but we've never had the equivalent of the Kelce-Hill 1-2 punch or even the Kelce-Tiktokboy. Kelce is in a class of his own where teams just can't cover him when he's "on". "KC's D has sucked most of the time Mahomes has been there" Get Out of Here with that, Bad Take. It wasn't so good his first year 2018 - 24th - but since then 7th, 10th, 8th and 16th. They moved on from 2018 DC Bob Sutton to Steve Spagnuolo in 2019 and have been solid to good ever since, despite regularly rebuilding their player personnel at LB and DB. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are Beasts. Anyway, I don't think there can be real argument that Allen is still in a worse situation than Mahomes as far as his OL and skill players, leaving coaching out of it. It's why so many of us are pretty fierce to see the Bills really invest in offense this off-season, because we don't want to see Allen turn into Rodgers or worse, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck - a QB whose career was prematurely truncated because his team let him down and didn't protect him well enough or put enough talent around him.

Do you believe Daboll came to Buffalo as a "coach of the year" level coach? Or did he grow and develop during his time in Buffalo? I know how I see it. Good question. What do you think the answer is? Spoiler: the reason is that the pro athlete is, in fact, just as sensitive or more so as the fans, and when dissed in public can't let it go

Thanks for putting this together, Virgil FWIW on their Combine "One Bills Live" segment, Brown and Tasker hosted Greg Cosell. He talked about the Bills needing a "3 level wide receiver" who can stretch the field vertically as well as run option routes, play inside, and play the intermediate game. Cosell suggested Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers as two players who could fit that description and contribute immediately for the Bills. He thought one of them would likely be there at 27. Flowers is 5'9" and 182 lbs with 29" arms. I know that Beane and McDermott are firm believers in the adage "it's the size of the fight in the dog, not the size of the dog in the fight", but, in a league where all the players are fantastic athletes, it seems to me that height and arm length do matter for WR. I don't want to see the Bills build another team where "our WR are Smurfs" as in 2019 (and our Smurfs got neutralized by press man coverage and uncalled holding in several games, including the playoff vs. Hou).

OK, different from 2021 then when Kumerow was one of the gunners?

What did Anderson do on ST for the Chiefs?

What role did Kumerow play, then? Thought he was one of the gunners as well. Anyway, I think TBN is incorrect that the Bills are going around making decisions about each guy who is owed a (relatively small) roster bonus. I think the decision on McKenzie was driven by feeling that Harty (and Shakir, and Hines) can fill every role they saw for McKenzie next season and do it better, so bye! Unless they signed someone who they have on film as a top notch gunner AND a Dime back AND can play Nickel, I agree, Neal stays. But then, I did think that $250k-$350k was too small an amount not to bring McKenzie into camp to compete and clearly the Bills valued his $2.2M now more than his camp competition, so you never know.

In 2020, when they've had Klein playing for Milano while he was on IR (big drop-off in coverage), I seem to recall Frazier explaining that they re-worked roles and responsibilities rather than taking a "next man up" philosophy.

So Neal's calling card is that he was said (at least a year ago-ish) to be the fastest player on the team. He's a ST gunner (I think - where's @GunnerBill to set us straight on all the ST roles?) or at least filled in for Kumerow, he was taking 77% of the ST snaps. He's our dime back, and Taron Johnson's backup at nickel. So he's versatile. Personally, I don't think the Bills see him as a looming decision. $400 bonus really isn't much in the scheme of things. Neal has 3 roles on the team, so why not bring him into camp and keep him until you have someone else you like better in at least 2 of 3? I think the reason the Bills saved McKenzie's bonus is that they signed someone who can fill his role and they think will be better. I don't see that as having happened with Neal. Only to people who don't value ST which (checks notes) would not include Beane or McDermott

Looks like Bill Belicheck has a sense of humor too: https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-isaiah-mckenzie-release-cut-rumors-new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-free-agency

You do know it's probably not the same people, right? Plenty of fans get outraged at anyone criticizing their team, including "us Bills fans" Can we quit with the "oh my god Bills fans" like we're some homogeneous mass? Some fans don't want to hear any criticism of the team or players. "Fan" is short for "fanatic" defined as "a person motivated by extreme unreasonable enthusiasm". I'm Shocked Shocked to find we have fans like that! Other so-called fans have to take a dump on anything they can. Very few of our players are good enough; the FO can't draft, they make bad choices on who to sign, etc etc. It's a mystery how the Bills have had a #1 or #2 defense 3 of the last 4 years when none of our players are worth a 2nd round pick. It's the flip side of extreme unreasonable enthusiasm I guess: extreme unreasonable criticism. Then there are those who try to be more centric and see both sides. People approach things differently, Stop the Press.

I personally think last season it was Mahomes, then a handful of QB (Allen, Burrows, Herbert, Hurts) of which group I'd put Allen first but I understand arguments, then Rodgers. Lifetime, I can understand putting Rodgers at the head of the current QB, but his level of play was not as good last season. What I think gores people's ox about Beasley is that he wants to opine on subjects where he lacks expertise (OK, his right) but he doesn't want to hear it from fans who opine on matters where he truly has expertise (like football, and OK, the fans right)

You're almost right as far as defensive snaps, but that was because he was primarily backing up Milano. Milano only missed 5 snaps the rest of the season and that was against the Bears where most of the defensive starters were pulled at the end of the 35-13 game. My guess is that Bernard looked slow because he was trying to process what he saw and convert it to what he was supposed to be doing, and not because of lack of actual physical speed. In other words, that OODA loop thing (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act). Milano and other veterans go from Observe to Act because placing the observation in context and knowing what their role is in that context has become automatic. Bernard was thinking too much. Once he becomes more experienced, there's a good chance he won't need to think and he'll speed up, but it'll probably take a season+ of play just as it did for Edmunds. And of course, maybe he won't get there: some players do and some don't. As far as overall snaps, Bernard played 70% of the ST snaps the last part of the season.

OK, basic RAS question: I somehow didn't pick up on height and weight being one of 10 factors in RAS. How does that work?

That seems contrarian, but You Do You. I don't love the people I love any less when they anger others, but I don't find it particularly admirable. Why the quotation marks? They're fans. They don't represent all fans, certainly, fans aren't a uniform block. That's kinda where Cole went wrong a few years back, kind of painting Bills fans with a broad brush when he was likely dealing with a loud handful. I grant, it only takes a small # to make a large stink. On the other hand - most etymologists feel "fan" is short for "fanatic" "Fanatic" is defined as "a person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause." Huge surprise that some Bills fans are motivated by extreme enthusiasm for their favorite QB and will tolerate no apparent criticism at all. Cole Beasley has apparently been motivated by extreme enthusiasm for Aaron Rodgers (now) and a couple of his own opinions (then), so he ought to have some empathy there - "brothers under the skin" so to speak.

See, this is what I meant when I said "hate" was the appropriate descriptive of some Bills fans sentiments.

Well... to be fair, you hear stuff from slim ass, some talent fans too. But neither of them can typically do what NFL players can do. Anyone drafted in the NFL (or signed as an UDFA) are at the far upper edge of the bell curve for athleticism in the population. We all know someone who was The Man, the most amazing athlete no one else in the area could keep up with or cover. And sometimes that guy turns out to be Zeke Elliot, but more often that guy can't cut the mustard in DII ball. Been there, seen that. Brandolini's Law aka the "bull#### Asymmetry Principle", applies here: "The amount of energy needed to refute bull#### is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it." So sometimes the criticism is over the top, off base, and ill founded, sure, and those fans would better keep quiet. But fundamentally, in all walks of life, people who can't themselves do it feel free to criticize those who can (project managers, lawyers, teachers, mechanics, plumbers, etc). Do you think, as a principle, that no one should criticize someone else if they can't do it themselves? I can't do concrete work myself. The contractors who repaired our front steps once did an incredibly poor job. I don't think I needed to be a concrete contractor to see that it was poorly done by about half a dozen objective criteria, starting with the fact that the steps were higher at the front than the back when they were done, instead of level or slightly sloped to the front for drainage. I don't think doctors or lawyers or contractors should be above criticism simply because the critics can't do it themselves. You? Same thing - fans should be able to criticize sports figures even if they can't do it themselves. But it's more appropriate if the criticism isn't founded on sweeping generalizations, and has some basis in objective reality. A 5'7" 170 lb WR doesn't stay in the league 6 years by being bad at football. The Bills think they found someone better at what they want McKenzie to do, so they moved on - Time Will Tell.

I don't suppose their catch % has any meaning for you. Have you found your wallet yet? I don't suppose the names around them on drop % have any meaning for you either https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving_advanced.htm Davis 9.7% just a little better than Darius Slayton 9.9% and a bit worse than Deebo Samuel 9.7% McKenzie 9.6% just a little better than Deebo Samuel and a bit worse than Amari Cooper 9.1% and Courtland Sutton 8.3% Should they have dropped less sure. The Bills as a team had a high drop %. Maybe it has something to do with a QB who doesn't like to throw with touch, especially when it's cold and wet? The biggest offender on the Bills was actually Devin Singletary with 11.5% and a bunch of announcers saying "he's got to catch throws like that", but I never hear him taken to task here I actually thought his route running had developed quite a lot, shows what I know I guess? I think the real problem for him is reading zone D and chosing option routes Also sometimes between him and Gabe Davis, someone was running the wrong route 'cuz too often, they wound up too close together in a way unlikely to be the play design. Can't tell you who (didn't always look to be McKenzie but that's just a guess)

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2023/03/17/chiefs-free-agency-isaiah-mckenzie-enticing-return-option-market/ Now that's genuinely humorous

Ouch