Beck Water

Has 14 carries for 55 yds 3.9 yds/carry tonight. It’s not brilliant, but it moves the chains.

The TD play was a Thing of Beauty. But when did these other huge catches occur? That was his only catch on 4 targets, one of which was the pick. Right now, trusting Gabe Davis seems to be Josh’s Achilles heel. And no, I’m not overlooking the drop. If he wants to be paid like a top receiver he’s got to catch the ball. Otherwise give Sherfield or Shakir or Harty or Kincaid a chance. Agree, and I will belly up to the bar for my personal helping of Bernard Crow Pie. I thought he was too small and based on last season, I thought he was gonna be Lost in Space. Looking good, kid, looking good. Keep looking good and I’ll gladly accept my 2nd helping of crow

I was hoping not to be That Guy to say this, but now that you’ve been That Guy - outside of the TD, Gabe Davis was the fly in my Magic Ointment from this game.

No love for Epenesa with the Pick 6?

Colts game Week 11 2021 41 colts 15 bills Can happen, but you’re right, doesn’t happen often

I think the season will improve The shorter preseason and longer season seems to be giving teams a slow start I will say that Calvin Austin may have something if he can hold up.

Levi Wallace sighting!

Just threw a nice TD pass That was a nice long pass to Pickens there too, though a better throw would have let him show his shoe soles to the Raiders I would like Pickens on the Bills. I think he’s legit. But he can’t throw to himself. That is a totally bull#### DPI flag. LOL even Collinsworth after saying as a WR I think that’s a DPI agrees it’s not a DPI! Fortunately they picked it up.

I can be ignorant about betting, but isn’t “favored by 3” basically a pick’em with home field advantage?

I know we’ve had some discussion in the Around the NFL thread, but now that each team has demonstrated signs of a vestigial offense and scored an offensive TD each, I thought someone might want to discuss it without combing through the thread

Now the Steelers (and the Broncos) are two examples of teams whose offenses look genuinely bad I would say the Steelers are in trouble; the Raiders look as though they have some kind of offense, in contrast to the Steelers who appear to have none. So 100% of Canada’s NFL experience is with the Steelers the last 3 seasons and this, during which they’ve had, well, mediocre to poor to bad offenses. I think Canada got the “Ghost of Ben Roethlisberger” pass in 2021, the “Trubisky is not who we thought he was” and “we need receivers” pass in 2022, Now Pickett is 2nd year and they have some receivers, so I would think his seat is getting heated.

We seriously aren’t watching the same games. And since watching is subjective, the Bills offense was something like 8th in points and 6th in yards after last week; will probably go up a bit this week, won’t go down. Last season 4th for both. Would you be willing to explain how they “still looks kinda bad, like last year if not worse” while somehow putting up better offensive statistics than 3/4 of the league?

‘Free agent’

The Chiefs finally get some smart and say “let’s give our backups some game time” up 41 - 0 i

Well, the first thing Edmunds is going off the field to check something. Not sure his bank account is that thing. Don’t get me wrong, I think they’re a good team and we have to “bring it”, but the point is that against teams with somewhat competent defenses, Miami didn’t “go off” like that.

Yep.

As we saw vs the Jets, Josh Allen can have a terrible, horrible, no good very bad day some times. Bear in mind the Phins won 36-34 against the Chargers on a late 4Q TD, and 24-17 against the Patriots. Is the Phins offense legit good? Yes. But is it the unstoppable juggernaut it appeared to be today, or is Denver just really truly awful?

Looks to me like the Chiefs are indeed going for that. “70 points? Hold My Beer, Dolphins!” And if Mahomes knee is injured in the final seconds of the half where they’re already up 31-0, just trying to rack up more points I never wish for any player to be injured but that would be “Karma’s a Beyothch, Reid”

You care to go game by game through them and explain why they're all not bad decisions? Well All Righty Then. The stat came from 'statmuse' and I sourced it, but it's a widely accepted precept (including by Bills coaches and Josh) that win probability plummets when turnovers mount to 2+. So I dunno....maybe you should care. 4-4 in playoffs

Agree on all points...at the time Allen threw his 2nd interception in the Jets game, The Bills were leading 13-6. As you say, it was 2nd down. And, there were options. An interception is NOT as good as a punt, because with the punt team you have designed coverage with designated roles and guys who practice taking angles and tackling.

Why do you think Josh has multi turnover games? Usually, to my observation, it's because of making multiple bad decisions. But you should, perhaps, be a bit more concerned about "just multi-turnover games". Per statmuse, in games where there are 2+ turnovers, win percentage is 0.284 overall and 0.273 in playoffs. For 3+ turnovers, it's 0.134 generally and 0.164 in playoffs. The bottom line is, Allen can make a handful of "wow!" plays to offset a turnover, but as the turnovers mount, the number of "wow" plays needed to offset them mounts to where it's just not probable against a very good or great defense. Did you know that 93.74% of statistics are made up? There have been times when Josh is trying to force things because he doesn't have alternatives. In the Jets game, he clearly had open receivers underneath and chose to make the riskier throw. That was also true of a couple "wow!" throws in the Raiders game.

I'm pretty sure that's the guy who did it in response to his neighbor across the street, who has a Jets themed house https://wyrk.com/guy-paints-his-house-in-bills-colors-to-make-neighbor-mad/ https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/09/14/buffalo-bills-fan-paint-home-team-colors-vpx.wham Michael Mansfield

We do a QB push play, but it seems like a different variation to me. We have the OL (it seems to me) trying to keep the DL down, while Josh goes over the top with Gabe pushing him. And we've been stopped on it a couple times. I didn't notice us doing it as much last season. The Eagles OL, on the other hand, goes low and Hurts follows them low. They can do this because they have road graders on OL and it makes it harder to stop it seems. I could be wrong, just my impression.

The problems are - the games where you're least likely to get away with turnovers are the Playoffs and Championship games, so if it's something you habitually tolerate in your QB play, you're habitually setting yourself up for going down in the Playoffs. The other problem is, of Josh's last 15 games (Green Bay game last season on), 7 have been multi-turnover games. Now maybe some of that is on the UCL injury, but there's cause to be concerned that it's happening more than "not very often"

Another version I think Kurt Warner is finally smitten by Josh, saying he played a good game against the Jets. There were some drops, and I guess he gives Josh credit for the 3rd INT to Davis as he seems to agree with @HappyDays that Gabe Davis needed to run deeper upfield then make his cut, but what about the fumble where Josh muffed the shotgun snap (took his eyes off it) then ran into traffic with the ball, causing the fumble? Warner's argument is that Josh makes enough special plays to overcome the interceptions he throws. At one point, Warner was getting eaten alive by fans and coaches alike for his own turnovers - he fumbled twice and was picked 4x his 2nd to last year in St Louis. He was benched after throwing a pick on the second attempt of his next game, inactive 5 games, then when he got another chance to start threw 3 picks and fumbled 6 times in 2 games. He may have been playing injured - he was put on IR after that - but next season, one interception and 6 fumbles in the season opener, benched again, next year traded to the Giants. My point in recounting all this is: a QB can "get away with" low level of mistakes if there is a high enough level of brilliant plays to offset them, sure. But there comes a point - and Kurt Warner well knows this from his own professional career, if he's honest about it - where the mistakes pile up and a very good defense won't allow enough of those brilliant plays to make up for it. 1 or 2 turnovers, can probably be overcome by great play against all but the very best defenses and/or good defenses with a very good or great offense. 3 or 4, can only be overcome if the other offense is spluttering or the defense is porous. That said - I think Kurt's breakdowns are some of the best in the business and I always enjoy them.