Einstein's Dog

And info is very sketchy/unreliable on the intangibles - attitude/personality/demeanor/intelligence. I don't want another diva but it is hard to know without more information who those are. Makes the second round pickups a little more appealing to me - the McConkey/Coleman/Legette/Franklin crew.

No to Burks. He hasn't done anything. If Tenn wants to move someone because they want one of the big 3 WRs, I think we should send about a 4th or 5th and get DHop. Then trade down in the draft and get one of the non-diva types in the 2nd - McConkey/Legette/Coleman/Franklin.

There is one big option not listed - get a veteran (either FA or via trade) who can be considered an upgrade on Diggs, and then take a good non-diva WR in the second (who could be considered an improvement over Gabe). This would give us an attempt at upgrading year over year- not a rebuilding year. Veteran trade targets include high tier J Jefferson/B Aiyuk/DK Metcalf/DHop or a FA like OBJ is also possible. Non- divas in the second could be McConkey/Coleman/Legette/Franklin types

Hadn't thought of D Adams. Obviously would be excited but I think the addition of a WR that requires both a lot of draft capital and money is unlikely. The others in this category J Jefferson/Aiyuk/and Higgins. Getting one of these top WRs is great for 2024 but would hurt the fit/development/room of a rookie WR FA Veterans, or those on a short term deal, would pair well with a young good rookie that I would like to see the Bills try ad draft. Dhop shouldn't take much and could fit that description. He could be paired with standing still at 28 and taking a WR that could take a year to take over. OBJ as a veteran could come without draft capital, same with M Thomas - but those two are IMO worse than Diggs IMO. They could be paired with a move up to get BTJ though.

I would gladly take DHop for a 5th, but I don't think you are considering the salary's of the two. Keenan is a $20M underperformer, kind of like Diggs. DHop is a $13M WR outperforming his contract. Part of the value for trading for DHop is he has a desirable contract in place - although you would juice that up a bit but are able to craft it in a way that you like. Personally in terms of expected performance for next year, in my mind DHop > Diggs (at least in Buff, overall DHop = Diggs).

DK Metcalf has too many question marks. His salary is already too high IMO. He's in the J Jefferson range and J Jeff would be the much better player to get. I'm talking myself back into Dhop. He is great value at that $13M range - and I think he has much better hands than Metcalf. Dhop would be a great bridge as we develop someone like A Mitchell/Legette/Franklin/McConkey or Coleman. All those rookies are risky though (even BTJ) whereas DHop is a known commodity. Tenn has a high pick, number 7, I believe. Trading to get up there would take too much IMO. But Tenn may want to grab one of the big 3 and then unload DHop. The question would be what would it take draft capital wise.

What about DHop? A meager $13M salary. Plus the guy has hands. IMO he is currently better than Diggs. Drafting a WR is necessary. Relying on the rookie WR is risky.

You mean yet, at this point, up to now, on paper. It's a net-negative if no other move is made. I can agree with that but I don't think we're done. How quickly even the on-paper decision can change though. Obviously if J Jefferson is added, the Bills are on-paper better. I would go so far as to say even adding DHop or Aiyuk would make the Bills better on paper than what we expected with Diggs still on the team.

i would be disappointed with OBJ. That would be one move I would not like, out of a lot of scenarios that are exciting to me. One scenario, kind of a compromise, I just thought of that I like is - trade a 4th to Tenn for Dhop. And we extend his reasonable contract (I think he is like $12-13M) for another year. Tenn just brought in C Ridley and 1st rounder from last year. Then draft similar to how we would have with Diggs - get one of the WRs with potential in the first two rounds.

You left out a couple of options: 4. The extremely low percentage, but Einstein Dog special, move down from 28 and select two of McConkey/K Coleman/Legette/T Franklin/Worthy. Low percentage and this place would go nuts, but has its merits. You get two tries at the eager, Josh allegiant, culture fitting, cost controlled, piece for a young offensive juggernaut core that will be in place for years to come. Downside - uncertainty and downgraded odds for 2024 season. 5. Much higher percentage: Trade. The big splash move would obviously be J Jefferson. What a move. But there are also others, Aiyuk, or others we don't even know about like DK Metcalf.

I could find a way to excuse his pathetic lack of effort when the play wasn't going his way. Claiming it didn't matter,, though it irritated me and was a bad look. In part excused in my mind by his yet to be disclosed injury. But what about all the times Diggs took himself out on those 3rd downs? Even with my made up injury for Diggs I couldn't come up with a rational explanation for those. IF he was playing hurt why wouldn't he have timed it so he was in on 3rd downs. That's inexcusable in my mind. Brady had to want him out.

C'mon, Josh had Smoke Brown, Cole Beasley and they brought in Diggs and I think Gabe. Houston has Noah Brown, Nico Collins and now the older Diggs. Very comparable.

And while it might make heads explode with those 6 WRs all available at 28, We could trade down and still get 2!

I would have preferred trading him to Dallas for their first (#24). But I guess maybe Dallas didn't want to do that? And I don't get it. What is Dallas doing? They lost way more than they gained so far (Pollard/Gallup/T Smith all gone). Dallas is losing the in-state hype battle to Houston by a large margin. Dallas should have given us their first - jerks. So I think Houston probably gave us the best offer for Diggs. And if the OP is suggesting we should have taken a lesser offer for Diggs because we're scared of Houston, well that's just foolish.

It's not just the cost or picks for me. It's also being careful about attitude, fit/culture. In my other post I mention trying to move down a little to take two chances in this years WR pool - the McConkey/Coleman/Franklin/Legette. The double dip obviously increases the odds of hitting on one, and if you hit on both there is room available here. Going with rookies at WR while riskier has the reward of creating an offensive cost controlled juggernaut for 3-4 more years! A good base is already there. And with rookies in the fold, Josh is promoted to more of the leader role.

Aiyuk's wanting a big contract is why he is available. He wants to get paid. Yes, the Bills could structure a deal to get this back-loaded but they got a pay me WR back in the fold. The advantage is they have a vet, proven commodity vs the rookies. It is the safer 2024 option. Personally, I would prefer if the Bill would try the riskier approach of getting two plus attitude WRs early. Trade a little down and get two out of McConkey/K Coleman/Legette/T Franklin/maybe Worthy. A couple of culture fit rookies who are thrilled with the opportunity to be on the team and have a chance. Riskier but it increases the odds of a great, young offensive core that acknowledges Josh as the leader.

I don't think the Bills would have to pay him big money right away. It's part of what makes Aiyuk attractive, his first year here would be a reasonable salary. The Bills could structure it for a multi-year contract with guaranteed money for later years. The real benefit is the reduction of risk in the 2024 season. I think the FO would really have to figure out Aiyuk's fit here though - culture/diva wise. It's not a good look forcing his way out of SF and we just went through it. Getting Rookies and penciling them in as pretty much WR1-ish is riskier than we have seen out of Beane in the past. But if the Bills can do it and go with rookies it really transitions this team to a Josh lead juggernaut. Getting the likes of McConkey/K Coleman/T Franklin/Legette would solidify Josh as the leader of this team and get the team with an offense that has a core that will be together for multiple years (Kincaid/Cook/Shakir/rookie WR).

I'm glad I didn't bet this either. I was talking myself into Dallas and felt I needed to do it before the draft. I'm surprised Dallas didn't beat Houston's offer. For their first round pick they could have had Diggs. That would have sent the media buzzing. Cee Dee plus Diggs. I don't know how Dallas is going to get the hype J Jones craves. Plus they're setting up McCarthy and Dak very poorly for a key season for both.

I'm hoping for Rome O. It does sound hard to get, but the others were great selections when we had Diggs and had a year of development. The next tier down would still be desirable for the Gabe development replacement (Legette/K Coleman/McConkey/T Franklin) but for 2024 WR1 I would like something better. The other option is trading for Aiyuk (I think J Jeff is too expensive to think about). Personally, I would love to see two of these rookies, Rome and one of the second tier. It would be out of character from what we have seen from Beane and McD but would be great to see. It would usher in a new era with Josh as the veteran leader and we would see the team develop.

And this is why you just say "No" to adding an over the hill M Thomas or OBJ. Josh's team, bring in some youngster WRs.

I had been wondering/hoping we could have got Dallas' 1st. Thought Dallas might be desperate enough. I had come around to thinking there was enough Diggs disgust in the FO where they would feel the need to move on. Wondering what the plan is from here.

I wouldn't be so sure Diggs makes it long. First, the dead money can be viewed in a sunk cost kind of way, that money is going to be paid one way or another and it is just a matter of timing. Second, the future of Diggs is not all based on Diggs feelings of wanting out or not - there is the possibility that the Bills FO wants Diggs out. One can look at some of Diggs comments/actions as having disrespected J Brady - taking plays off, taking himself out on some key 3rd downs, disrespected Beane - by not just doing anything w his contract but by also publicizing in a kind of what are you going to do about it way, and McD can't like the distractions. The FO could think the value for Diggs is at its high. The FO could reasonably think Diggs is on a steep decline and the demand (via Dallas) is strong. The conditions may be assessed that the FO could get by far the most by moving Diggs now (as apposed to waiting another year). Beane probably has a plan where he can come up with the dead cap money (getting rid of Diggs salary + Tre money + Josh restructure - Rome O money). Yes, the Bills odds for the super bowl would take a hit -kind of like when KC got rid of Tyreek. They're going to have to move on at some point, it might be a little earlier than many expected because of the reasons outlined above.

I think if Diggs is moved the FO needs to find a way to get one of the big 3 WRs in to take his place. For the Gabe replacement there can be more leeway in getting someone up to speed.

I don't think you can ease the dead cap money. The 6/1 talk is about splitting it over another year. But if the Bills don't like Diggs at his current salary, the dead money can be looked at as a sunk cost. That prepaid cost may be part of an asset for another team though. A team could trade for his contract and get Diggs at what looks like a discount as compared to other top tier WRs. For instance it might be an incentive for Dallas to be able to get Diggs for less than $20M/yr (because the Bills have eaten part of the salary). You can't get a WR of Diggs name/hype level/stature for anywhere near that price tag - look at what Ridley got. Houston makes no sense to me, they don't have a 1st. But Dallas? If. for reasons mentioned in the post above, the Bills FO wants to move Diggs (which now is making sense to me), then Dallas looks like the match. Dallas needs the hype and Dallas has a first. So now the beginning of the draft is must see TV for me, because if Rome Odunze is still around past #8, Beane may move Diggs and a 4th for Dallas' 1st and 3rd. Then the Bills could package #24 + #28 for a move up to 9 and grab Rome.

While yes, the betting action is accounting for the shift in odds, it doesn't mean the fundamentals are the same. To me, the situation has shifted more towards Dallas being a player for Diggs. Lets not forget J Jones quote of Dallas being "All in". How does that mesh with total inaction in FA? They lost Pollard/Gallup/OL. And now there is nothing left in FA to move the needle. J Jones has to be getting desperate to make a splash. There is a scenario in my mind where Beane has joined in with the McDermott/Brady disgust-fest of Diggs. It's not just that Diggs dropped huge passes at the end (KC and Denver come to mind) but remember him inexplicably taking himself out on 3rd downs. I thought for sure we were going to hear of some injury Diggs was playing through (where we would say "what a trooper, tough guy, team man"). Nope, he went and played flag football at the pro bowl. How can an OC (Brady) like, in any way, his top WR taking himself out on key 3rd downs? Easy to see how Brady would want Diggs gone, McD wouldn't like the culture disruption, and now Beane -not only didn't Diggs take the pay cut- Diggs publicized it to the team and kind of stuck it to Beane with "Ready for watever" and "Well.." kind of showing he stood up to Beane and got his money. While there will be a cost to it, they can disguise their disgust based move to the public by claiming this was part of the hard choices of the youth movement. And in the locker room the Beane/McD/Brady would get more respect. They take the pick from Dallas and add it to 28 and get a big time WR prospect. All the skill positions except for maybe C Samuel (who Brady has history with) would be looking to Josh as the elder/leader - J Cook/kincaid/new rookie/Shakir. Before I thought there was no way but now I've talked myself into thinking it is a distinct possibility. I don't think Dallas can wait to June 1st for the headlines though. So I would need to put the 200 bones on it before the draft.