Einstein's Dog

True, the trade up seemed anxious for Elam to me. But the move up for Kincaid seemed brilliant (the reaction from the Dallas war room spoke volumes). As mentioned earlier I could see a small move up again to get maybe Worthy on the thought that KC might make the move.

I'm thinking the usual small move up, this time for X Worthy. I think the elite speed element (with production at a top level school) offers something unique. The move up is because of the perceived threat of KC thinking the same thing.

I get your point. But in another thread someone (Warrior) pointed out that Ben Solak of WGR heard rumblings that DK Metcalf is available. If that is true our 2025 2nd from Minn might be quite valuable to them.

I think the Bills will look better prior to the season, not necessarily by the draft but through a combination of FA and draft. I think the Bills will find a good RB2, another safety - either FA Simmons or Hyde if they don't get a starter in the draft. And of course the Bills will do something about WR.

T Lockett, to me, is not the same level as what I expected from Diggs in 2024. And Lockett was just signed to a deal with a signing bonus, so if the Bills wanted him they would probably need to give a little boost in draft capital to offset the low salary. I hope the Bills go in a different direction than him.

Yes, I am all for trading a lower draft pick for one of the vets. I think Beane would stay away from the divas that require both draft capital and money, so J Jeff/Aiyuk/Higgins would be out. But other options remain: For instance I use the Tenn + DHop as an example, if they take Rome at #7 then DHop would be prime candidate to deal for a 4th. Similarly C Godwin at Tampa could possibly be moved since they just poured big bucks into M Evans. D Metcalf might be a possibility with new management wanting to craft a team. I think after Beane does one of those type of moves to replace Diggs the draft becomes more in line with what we expected before. Maybe trade down and get that 3rd back. DL and WR would top the list but we can't count out the love for a S or CB.

Diggs was a top tier WR when the Bills got him. Now they need a big time talent to replace him. For 2024 that is not a second tier WR. I want a Diggs type replacement and a WR in the first or early second to replace G Davis. A mini-rebuild in Josh's prime is unacceptable to me. The idea that the Bills WR room is 2 second tier rookies/Samuel/and Shakir is frightening to me. It would be by far Beane's worst year. I don't think this will be the case and all of Beane's talk to the contrary is just setting expectations low. He must (I hope) be working all the angles frantically.

Only 1 rookie was in the top 30 WRs in yards last year. Thinking we can get a Diggs replacement for 2024 with a rookie is extremely wishful thinking. The second tier WRs, IMO, are fine as part of the fill-in with Samuel to replace G Davis, but not Diggs. I just still can't believe Beane is going to do a rebuild/reset, smack in the middle of Josh's prime. I think all of Beane's talk about we're fine at WR is an attempt to keep expectations low.

Bills trade #144 to Tenn (after they draft Rome) for DHop. Bills trade #28 to Wash for #36 + #78.

I have a hard time coming to terms with the on-paper downgrade at WR from last year that we would have with 2 second tier rookies penciled in for large roles. It would signify to me a rebuild/reset year. Generally the draft had been considered replenishment for the future - not filling immediate needs. The idea of a second tier WR being the Diggs replacement isn't right. Either a big 3 as Diggs replacement with a FA WR (OBJ/M Thomas) or a trade for a vet WR. I think J Jeff/Aiyuk/Higgins are too expensive ($ + draft capital) but there are others - D Metcalf/C Godwin/DHop/DJ Moore.

The downside- other teams thinking Legette leaking something that was said in private. Two, all teams feeling that Legette misinterpreted what was told to him. Three, if any team felt Legette was doing this out of a selfish me-first interest with no regard for the bad team's interest it would certainly not be looked upon in a good light. It just seems like a stupid thing he did, I don't think he did it in any malicious me-first way though. But he is a one year wonder who is thought to be somewhat developmental. Not worth a first round pick IMO, let's see if Carolina takes him at 33.

Yeah, not a good look out of Legette. If it was said to him, he is outing what is not hard to understand was a private conversation to the public. It puts the person who said this to him -which wouldn't be hard for the Panthers to figure out- in a bad situation. Secondly, it is kind of hard to believe someone actually told him this. It seems like he may be positively interpreting some conversation. And Legette by making this statement, if it doesn't come true, makes it seem like someone lied to him. I'm off the Legette train, maybe in the 4th. Give me McConkey/Franklin/Coleman over this mess.

In this mock Nabers is still around for the Raiders pick at 13 - that would have to be tempting for Beane. Might be in the possible trade range for a premier WR1.

Einstein's Dog moves (which if Beane is smart will be his): 1. Trade low draft pick for vet WR- Dhop/Metcalf/Godwin type. Top choice DHop early w so Tenn at pick 7 goes WR. 2. trade back out of round 1 for extra pick. With early pick get one of the second tier WRs - McConkey/Franklin/Legette/Coleman 3. remaining draft DL, S 4. get a good value on a vet RB, wait it out. Maybe Zeke. 5. get a vet S. If not Simmons then bring back Hyde to mentor draft pick. That provides the team with enough talent to contend. Not much you can do about the lack of pass rush but hope on Von and a draft pick.

My thinking is Beane would probably want to stay away from the divas wanting out, which require big money and draft capital. Preferable to that would be the veteran WR that is expendable because the team he is on gets one of the highly touted new ones. So, if Tenn takes a big 3, DHop would be a much more manageable get than say J Jeff or Aiyuk. If Seattle takes one, D Metcalf might shake loose. If Tampa gets a new one C Godwin may be available. As mentioned above with Chicago- K Allen or DJ Moore become expendable. Personally, I'm back on the DHop train. DHop looked like he still had the goods last year. DHop has a cheap contract that Beane could do a lot of tricks with. Beane should be working out options with Tenn prior to the draft to encourage them to take one of the big 3. Tell Tenn if they take a WR, the Bills will give them a 4th (5th?) for Dhop. Beane would tell Tenn If they don't take it the Bills have other options behind them (Chic, Sea, TB) - because as an aside no GM is believing this garbage that Beane is going to have 2 lower drafted rookies as major contributors in a prime J Allen year- it would be a complete failure as a GM.

Maybe the conversation with Chicago will be what it will take for one of their veteran WRs. If Chicago is looking at picking up one of the big three WRs to go with their rookie QB, then all of a sudden they look over-invested in the WR room. K Allen, DJ Moore and now a highly touted first rounder. Getting draft picks for one of those two veterans would then be awfully tempting. DJ Moore was a Carolina product with a reasonable $15M salary. Same logic applies for Tenn. If they want one of the big 3 then Tenn looks over-invested with Ridley/DHop/and big 3 rookie. DHop looks like a trade target (and he has a very reasonable $13M salary). The draft capital offered for the veteran WRs would be cheap. The Bills would still hopefully use an early pick on a WR to use and develop.

I remember Beane saying not to expect any big moves in FA and then we got someone, don't remember who maybe Von or Floyd. No one remembers what he said about it because no one cared. I don't see how you think Beane is echoing what he has always said and done. He changes. Remember when he said he doesn't believe in rebuilding? Well, what's it going to be Beane - a rebuild or are you going to get a WR1? Beane is trying to set expectations low. I don't for a minute believe this is what he wants, and also don't believe this is what we will end up with.

Option 5: Trade for a vet WR with a low draft pick and then trade back from 28 and with one of those pick up another WR.

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period. Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize. He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good. As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent. It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

No we shouldn't have to "try and make do". Beane needs to earn his keep, he sent Diggs packing, bring someone in. It seems like the top tier are too expensive - J Jeff and B Aiyuk but there are other options. D Metcalf/C Godwin/DHop. If Beane doesn't do something of this magnitude (which includes a massive move up for one of the big 3) then this, IMO, is a historically bad year over year on-paper drop.

I appreciate the effort/thoughts. But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin. In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does. A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic. Big time rebuild if this is the thought. I hope that's not the plan. This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1. Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore. Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

0%??? C'mon, who put out that ridiculous number. And how do they factor in the plays (which were a much larger percentage for Coleman) where he is intentionally running to the defender? This is by design. FL had many more plays where they ran Coleman to what they called the "heels of the defender".

Guaranteed win? Even if he caught the ball (and I agreed with you at the time that Josh should have thrown it to him), there was no guarantee of winning. The Bills were down three and twenty yards out. They would/should have run clock so scoring a TD was certainly not a given. And if Bass shanked the FG try the Bills would have lost anyway. This is starting to become revisionist fact, kind of like 13 seconds cost us the superbowl.

That's a huge assumption there. Josh just needed to target Diggs? Like Diggs wouldn't have to catch the ball? Remember the easy screen to Diggs in the Denver game, meant to chew up time at the 12, with 2:12 remaining in the game? Diggs dropped that. Huge drop from a game management perspective. Diggs was not the same clutch guy the second half of last season, not at all.

I agree, risky and borderline unrealistic to rely on a rookie. The safer play is to let Tenn grab one of the big 3 and then send a 4th for DHop. That's the short term replacement for Diggs, and reasonable to expect similar production. Then in the 1st two rounds grab a G Davis replacement, who can develop into much more. If you grab 2 WRs in this class, the Bills would set themselves up for problems with offensive personnel in a few years. All the youngsters would be coming due and in line for big money - Kincaid/Cook/maybe Shakir/Torrence/C Samuel/and now our new rookie WR. Might be best to add another premier, high draft pick, WR in two years to have a staggered approach for long lasting contention.