Einstein's Dog

Aiyuk's wanting a big contract is why he is available. He wants to get paid. Yes, the Bills could structure a deal to get this back-loaded but they got a pay me WR back in the fold. The advantage is they have a vet, proven commodity vs the rookies. It is the safer 2024 option. Personally, I would prefer if the Bill would try the riskier approach of getting two plus attitude WRs early. Trade a little down and get two out of McConkey/K Coleman/Legette/T Franklin/maybe Worthy. A couple of culture fit rookies who are thrilled with the opportunity to be on the team and have a chance. Riskier but it increases the odds of a great, young offensive core that acknowledges Josh as the leader.

I don't think the Bills would have to pay him big money right away. It's part of what makes Aiyuk attractive, his first year here would be a reasonable salary. The Bills could structure it for a multi-year contract with guaranteed money for later years. The real benefit is the reduction of risk in the 2024 season. I think the FO would really have to figure out Aiyuk's fit here though - culture/diva wise. It's not a good look forcing his way out of SF and we just went through it. Getting Rookies and penciling them in as pretty much WR1-ish is riskier than we have seen out of Beane in the past. But if the Bills can do it and go with rookies it really transitions this team to a Josh lead juggernaut. Getting the likes of McConkey/K Coleman/T Franklin/Legette would solidify Josh as the leader of this team and get the team with an offense that has a core that will be together for multiple years (Kincaid/Cook/Shakir/rookie WR).

I'm glad I didn't bet this either. I was talking myself into Dallas and felt I needed to do it before the draft. I'm surprised Dallas didn't beat Houston's offer. For their first round pick they could have had Diggs. That would have sent the media buzzing. Cee Dee plus Diggs. I don't know how Dallas is going to get the hype J Jones craves. Plus they're setting up McCarthy and Dak very poorly for a key season for both.

I'm hoping for Rome O. It does sound hard to get, but the others were great selections when we had Diggs and had a year of development. The next tier down would still be desirable for the Gabe development replacement (Legette/K Coleman/McConkey/T Franklin) but for 2024 WR1 I would like something better. The other option is trading for Aiyuk (I think J Jeff is too expensive to think about). Personally, I would love to see two of these rookies, Rome and one of the second tier. It would be out of character from what we have seen from Beane and McD but would be great to see. It would usher in a new era with Josh as the veteran leader and we would see the team develop.

And this is why you just say "No" to adding an over the hill M Thomas or OBJ. Josh's team, bring in some youngster WRs.

I had been wondering/hoping we could have got Dallas' 1st. Thought Dallas might be desperate enough. I had come around to thinking there was enough Diggs disgust in the FO where they would feel the need to move on. Wondering what the plan is from here.

I wouldn't be so sure Diggs makes it long. First, the dead money can be viewed in a sunk cost kind of way, that money is going to be paid one way or another and it is just a matter of timing. Second, the future of Diggs is not all based on Diggs feelings of wanting out or not - there is the possibility that the Bills FO wants Diggs out. One can look at some of Diggs comments/actions as having disrespected J Brady - taking plays off, taking himself out on some key 3rd downs, disrespected Beane - by not just doing anything w his contract but by also publicizing in a kind of what are you going to do about it way, and McD can't like the distractions. The FO could think the value for Diggs is at its high. The FO could reasonably think Diggs is on a steep decline and the demand (via Dallas) is strong. The conditions may be assessed that the FO could get by far the most by moving Diggs now (as apposed to waiting another year). Beane probably has a plan where he can come up with the dead cap money (getting rid of Diggs salary + Tre money + Josh restructure - Rome O money). Yes, the Bills odds for the super bowl would take a hit -kind of like when KC got rid of Tyreek. They're going to have to move on at some point, it might be a little earlier than many expected because of the reasons outlined above.

I think if Diggs is moved the FO needs to find a way to get one of the big 3 WRs in to take his place. For the Gabe replacement there can be more leeway in getting someone up to speed.

I don't think you can ease the dead cap money. The 6/1 talk is about splitting it over another year. But if the Bills don't like Diggs at his current salary, the dead money can be looked at as a sunk cost. That prepaid cost may be part of an asset for another team though. A team could trade for his contract and get Diggs at what looks like a discount as compared to other top tier WRs. For instance it might be an incentive for Dallas to be able to get Diggs for less than $20M/yr (because the Bills have eaten part of the salary). You can't get a WR of Diggs name/hype level/stature for anywhere near that price tag - look at what Ridley got. Houston makes no sense to me, they don't have a 1st. But Dallas? If. for reasons mentioned in the post above, the Bills FO wants to move Diggs (which now is making sense to me), then Dallas looks like the match. Dallas needs the hype and Dallas has a first. So now the beginning of the draft is must see TV for me, because if Rome Odunze is still around past #8, Beane may move Diggs and a 4th for Dallas' 1st and 3rd. Then the Bills could package #24 + #28 for a move up to 9 and grab Rome.

While yes, the betting action is accounting for the shift in odds, it doesn't mean the fundamentals are the same. To me, the situation has shifted more towards Dallas being a player for Diggs. Lets not forget J Jones quote of Dallas being "All in". How does that mesh with total inaction in FA? They lost Pollard/Gallup/OL. And now there is nothing left in FA to move the needle. J Jones has to be getting desperate to make a splash. There is a scenario in my mind where Beane has joined in with the McDermott/Brady disgust-fest of Diggs. It's not just that Diggs dropped huge passes at the end (KC and Denver come to mind) but remember him inexplicably taking himself out on 3rd downs. I thought for sure we were going to hear of some injury Diggs was playing through (where we would say "what a trooper, tough guy, team man"). Nope, he went and played flag football at the pro bowl. How can an OC (Brady) like, in any way, his top WR taking himself out on key 3rd downs? Easy to see how Brady would want Diggs gone, McD wouldn't like the culture disruption, and now Beane -not only didn't Diggs take the pay cut- Diggs publicized it to the team and kind of stuck it to Beane with "Ready for watever" and "Well.." kind of showing he stood up to Beane and got his money. While there will be a cost to it, they can disguise their disgust based move to the public by claiming this was part of the hard choices of the youth movement. And in the locker room the Beane/McD/Brady would get more respect. They take the pick from Dallas and add it to 28 and get a big time WR prospect. All the skill positions except for maybe C Samuel (who Brady has history with) would be looking to Josh as the elder/leader - J Cook/kincaid/new rookie/Shakir. Before I thought there was no way but now I've talked myself into thinking it is a distinct possibility. I don't think Dallas can wait to June 1st for the headlines though. So I would need to put the 200 bones on it before the draft.

To me the explanation behind the Cowboys odds drop does not make sense. Why would being stagnant decrease their odds? They added no one of note and lost T Pollard, Gallup, and an OLman. And Philly signed Barkley. The lack of hype and talk has got to be killing J Jones. Adding Diggs would be huge in terms of talk and increased odds/eyeballs. Also giving Dak the weapons of Cee Dee and Diggs and going with a heavy passing attack could help in determining what they do in the future contract of Dak (which seems in question). Gonzo above (and seconded by Mr WEO) seem to think moving Diggs for a 1st would be something they would like. Then Dallas seems to be in play to me.

Drop rate has a lot of subjectivity to it. The one they were referencing in the podcast had a low rate attributable to K Coleman - I don't know which one they used. If X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin are all there I think this might be the year to trade back a little.

But according to the hype tape, he wasn't trying to get a lot of separation. They claimed Coleman was purposefully going right to the CB. They called it "stepping on the toes" of the CB, and the tape they showed seemed to back this up. Coleman was running right to where the CB was and then making the CB do something. Coleman didn't get much room but according to the statistics they provided seemed like that was all he needed - an incredibly low drop rate. This was a podcast by homers of the school but it did bring up a good possible point. And they poo-poo'd the LSU guys as being schemed open and anyone could do that.

It could be BS. That was part of my point, the FO has to make that call. And it probably is a big part of the decision. If they did the interview and came away with positives we might see the Bills do a small move up for Mitchell. The Bills/Beane do get nervous if their man is coming close - and I think they feel pretty justified in it from last year with the look of the Dallas war room after Kincaid was sniped from them. And they do have the Bills behind us and once again Dallas ahead of us - both dangers.

There was talk of A Mitchell taking plays off. An implication that Mitchell was a bit of a prima donna. Questions as to why someone with his height/weight/speed combo didn't do more. If A Mitchell were drafted there is the impression he would contact Josh pretty quickly and ask about the next charity golf event and if Hailee has any girl friends, whereas the first questions out of K Coleman are when can they get together and have the first 1,000 passes thrown his way.

I thought it was a little weird coming from you because the top reason for the stack scenario is brought about by anti-Diggs sentiment, moving on quickly -even this year from him. The second most popular stack reason is non-belief in Shakir. You've never expressed either of those opinions. As to the rankings of the WRs I can only think in tiers because we don't get the interviews. Knowing the mindset, attitude would make a huge difference. For instance if the rumors of A Mitchell took place in talks with the Bills FO, I would think he would be out. On the other hand, the X Legette and K Coleman seem like excellent fits.

Yes, move back and get one of X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin. I was with you until the end, the Warriorspike like overreach of a good thing. I am against the spending the extra pick on another WR. There are a lot of areas that would benefit from a rising young player - DL, S, and even OL. Drafting two WRs high in the draft would a sure way to thwart one of those two WRs or Shakir out of PT and development.

The problem w drafting center at 28 is the odds of the Bills getting one of the top 8 or so WRs drops dramatically. Waiting until #60 for a WR is way too risky for my blood. I'm not against trading down and then if available getting a top C and one of the top 8 WRs, but I don't think that would be a FO thought. i don't think they'll go with offense the first two picks again.

It would make sense to me in a scenario where X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin and McConkey are all there, that the Bills move back. They could then draft one of them a little later and have better draft spots for DL + S (or BPA) later on.

I am holding out hope for Zeke. I want him picked late and at a good value. A veteran who can get the tough short yards and knows how to pass block would be a great fit here. Contrary to the stats provided above, when I saw him in action last year I saw a good RB. Also, Zeke has been kind of humbled and with that can be a chip on his shoulders. I would find it easy to root for him now (I didn't before).

We want more than just a WR out of this draft though. WR, DL, and S. Players who are part of the future in short time. I think Beane will have to think long and hard about moving back a little if his preferred non-prima donna WRs are all still there at 28 - Legette/K Coleman and maybe T Franklin.

That helped increase my excitement about Coleman! The comments about stepping on the toes was interesting, so many people were talking about Coleman's lack of separation and this analysis was stating it was by design. And with the low drop rate seemed like it worked well. If Coleman and Legette are both there, I can see Beane dropping back because either of them seem like great fits.

I'm hoping Bills at Miami. I'd go. And the weather should be great.

I think the Josh evolving part is on the mental aspects, in terms of game management. For instance the KC game. Josh went for the TD on second down, wrong move. A T Brady or A Rodgers would have just been doing everything to get another first down and drain the clock. The objective there should not have been to score the TD but to burn clock and get a first down. McD and the Bills are on a nice run, just need to break through to the next step. Consistently fielding a very good team is a great way to potentially win the Superbowl.

You might want to listen to Beane's clip yourself then. A lot of people are interpreting it the way Sal is, but not me. They asked Beane what he was looking for in a WR just a few minutes after asking about C Samuels. He had just talked about Samuel's being in the RB room and the WR room, how he was smart and versatile. So to me it seemed like the first few qualities that came to Beane's mind were the ones he had just attributed to Samuel. From there Beane continued on to other traits, and in his GM speak, pretty much covered every WR on the planet including how you may need to offset the roster, get something you don't currently have. IMO, not something you need to pull your hair out over, just something the talking heads are cherry picking out for conversation purposes.