FireChans

Record when Bills allow 20+ 2020 7-3 2021 3-4 2022 6-3 2023 1-6 Josh is paid $268M.

It was the way our defense was playing.

I don't think those two arguments are congruent. The NE defense is very bad. I think that bad pass was a critical play. The defense couldn't do a thing. A pick on our own 30 was basically an extra 7 points for the Iggles. As bad as the defense was in that second half, I think the Bills win that game if Josh doesn't throw that pick tbh.

I'm tough on him for lots of reasons. 1. Because he signed a quarter of a billion dollar contract and that comes with level of expectations (i.e. not getting inexplicably outplayed by Zach Wilson and Mac Jones) 2. If he was a bit more consistent week to week and cleaned up a little more of the turnovers, he might just be the undisputed best in the league I'm very happy Josh Allen is our QB. I think he's great. I want him to be the best, just like I want every Bills player to be the best player ever. Because I want to see them win a Superbowl.

This is a sample size of what?

I think he's at least a top 3 QB and a top 1A/1B QB when he's on his game.

It appears not. Josh is at 2.06 which is quite a bit worse than his average over the last 3 seasons.

Got it! Gonna do an abridged list in order of total TDs https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-qb-since-2020 Allen 2.36 Mahomes 3.02 Herbert 2.65 Kirk 2.24 Rodgers 4.37 (!) Brady 2.7 Wilson 2.4 Burrow 2.27 Dak 2.22 Hurts 2.58 Lamar 1.89 (oof) Yes

He told me not to, his topic was only about interceptions.

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions. We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio Aaron Rodgers 4.3 (!) Patrick Mahomes 3.2 Russell Wilson 2.9 Tom Brady 2.73 Justin Herbert 2.65 Jalen Hurts 2.5 Deshaun Watson 2.43 Joe Burrow 2.27 Kirk Cousins 2.24 Lamar Jackson 2.23 Dak Prescott 2.23 Josh Allen 2.18 Ryan Tannehill 2.09 Matt Stafford 1.79 Jared Goff 1.64 Matt Ryan 1.64 Derek Carr 1.5 So what does this tell us? Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today. Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

They all say turnovers, not just interceptions, and the OP has been saying the "narrative is only about his interceptions, not fumbles" lol. I think we had some pretty good discussion here, personally. I'm sorry I didn't agree with your premise or OP. That's kinda what happens when you make a topic. You put yourself out there for discussion and sometimes criticism/feedback.

See I'd just love to see this comparison. If Allen has say, the third best TD/TO ratio since entering the league, I'd be like, "yeah the criticism of his INT's and fumbles is overblown." @Alphadawg7 didn't do that. That probably would have refuted the narrative. It's a shame. I agree he's top tier regardless. Your stance has been he's such a tuddy machine, you gotta live with some TO's too, and I don't disagree with that

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/bills-josh-allen-interception-issues SI:AM | Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Are Sinking the Bills https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/josh-allen-turnover-issues-bills-broncos-russell-wilson Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Can No Longer Be Overlooked https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-turnovers-bills-qb-interceptions-fumbles-problem-issues/iarfyhwyodsurqzleuwhq3bo Josh Allen turnover problems: Breaking down Bills QB's recent issues with fumbles and interceptions https://www.forbes.com/sites/djsiddiqi/2023/09/12/josh-allen-and-his-turnover-issues-create-a-major-problem-for-the-buffalo-bills/?sh=163e0da04d4d Josh Allen And His Turnover Issues Create A Major Problem For The Buffalo Bills https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-interceptions-fumbles-turnovers-bills-qb/c16a2675a4a49e7a22163407 Josh Allen interceptions: Bills QB leads league in picks, lost fumbles as turnover problems continue https://apnews.com/article/josh-allen-bills-turnovers-analysis-77d6e53e22ad938400d9dc415f1df1b3 Josh Allen’s turnover troubles too much to overcome in Bills season-opening loss https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-josh-allen-turnover-machine-112747394.html The Bills' Josh Allen is a turnover machine, and he's the only one to blame Come on. There's intentionally obtuse and then this.

Saying "this QB is great and one of the best in the NFL but turns it over a lot" shouldn't be hard

I get that. I'm kinda torn on it because a mishandled snap and basically an automatic loss of down happens a lot more than a true fumble that is a mad scramble. Hysterical lol. @Alphadawg7 you dog! Josh worse than Daniel Jones, Sammy Bradford and Neil "the Wheel" O'Donnell? You switched the samples. And the pathology reports! You kill Lentz, too?! Huh?! Did you?! Sure, which is why if you're gonna include his rushing TD's, then include his fumbles.

I’m discussing the larger narrative around Josh’s turnovers, of which INT’s are only a piece of the puzzle. you have proved that Josh isn’t that INT prone. You haven’t proved that he isn’t turnover prone. I think the latter is a much more interesting discussion.

Okay. Josh Allen has 23 lost fumbles in his 5.5 season career. Peyton Manning has 17 lost fumbles in the last 12 years of his career (they don't have the data prior to 2003) https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/peyton-manning-fumbles-lost Now we are getting somewhere!

I said that. Read the posts you respond to.

You can consider it commentary on your bonus content if you like. You compared Josh's TD:INT ratio, including his 48 rushing/receiving TD's through roughly 5.5 seasons, to 4 other players who collectively have 85 total non-passing TDs over a collective 80 seasons. FWIW, Josh Allen currently has 56 recorded fumbles (not fumbles lost), Peyton Manning is his 17 year career only had 75. I think a discrepancy between those numbers probably needs a deeper dive in order to truly dispel any turnover narrative as you claim to be doing. Ignoring such a fatal flaw in your methodology harms your overall argument, IMO. As does saying "the narrative isn't TO prone, it's interception prone!" as if most sports media talking heads, and even TBDers are usually attempting to reference turnovers in general. I guess you have dispelled the narrative that Josh isn't that INT prone but may certainly still be very turnover prone. Idk if that's the win you were going for.

It can be. it seems disingenuous to include rushing TD’s in an analysis about throwing interceptions and not include fumbles. I recently checked the math and it’s impossible to throw an interception when running the football unless you’re Zach Wilson.

Why are you including his rushing TD’s and not his rushing turnovers in this analysis?

Allen doesn’t turn it over a lot, but let’s not talk about his fumbles is pretty weak tbh. Especially when you count his rushing TD’s.

Add fumbles please