FireChans

Yeah you aren’t adding them for 2022 which is why it’s wrong. Harty and Sherfield have 200 yards on the year. For $5.5M against the cap. Just a brutal investment.

You’re missing rushing. That counts as production. Although in Harry’s case (4 carries for 0 yards), it doesn’t really. Lol

It’s weird that AJE’s page has his snap counts higher than the team page. Must be calculating it differently. I would feel pretty confident in a wager that AJE doesn’t eclipse 8 sacks more than once in his career, if that. I’m sure some team will feel as you do and overpay him, only to find out situational pass rushers do not actually project out 1:1 play time to sack totals. One only has to look at our own Leonard Floyd, who played 86% of snaps last season for 9.5 sacks in 17 games, and is playing 54% of snaps this season for 10.5 sacks in 15 games. If your projection held true, he should have half the sacks he currently does. Of course, that’s not how it works. There’s millions of examples of this. Bills legend Mario Addison had 11 sacks in 2017. He played more snaps the next two years and had less sacks both years. Seeing as only 19 players in the NFL actually had double digit sacks last season, I’m confident that AJE won’t be one of top 20 anytime soon. I guess we’ll see.

That's what PFR says: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022.htm

2022: McK, Shakir, Crowder: 699 yards, 6 TDs 2023: Shakir, Harty, Sherfield: 667 yards, 3 TD's Money well spent lmao. Shakir ended up doing the heavy lifting anyway.

My hot take is really that last year was an AWFUL FA class by Beane, probably the worst of his regime from a results standpoint. This year has been mediocre, with the crummy WR's being predictably crummy and being targeted for strange reasons, but the LG and edge rusher additions have been homeruns. ?????????

He's actually played: 31% in 2020 37% in 2021 38% in 2022 41% in 2023 Regardless, do you think he's a better pass rusher than Rousseau? Rousseau snap counts: 49% - 4 sacks 56% - 8 sacks 59% - 5 sacks Your projection is far overrating AJE. These 7-11 sack guys do not grow on trees. There is one guy from the 2020 draft class AVERAGING >7 sacks per year. One. And AJE with a big new deal is gonna be the next guy? Possible, but not likely. Shaq Lawson had a nice 6.5 sacks on 50% of snaps in his final year. He "projected out" to being a 7-10 sack per year guy. He doesn't have 10 career sacks since. Very likely outcome for AJE? Not even close.

This dude sneaky crushed it. Missed on a couple of course but was pretty close. NFL Scriptwriter career ahead.

I’m pretty sure Lamar was in the top 3 a few weeks ago from oddsmakers. It was Dak, Purdy, Lamar in different orders.

One day I will understand how a guy who has never gotten more than 6.5 sacks in a season will be a consistent 7-11 sack guy. Do you guys know how rare those guys are? Leonard Floyd is our first double digit sack guy since LORAX in 2016!

YUP. Its why personnel decisions should never be based on “did we win the Super Bowl” criteria. CEH over Higgins looms large right now. Just like the Bills whiffing on Ford and Boogie loomed large last year and even right now.

CMC Lamar Hill Allen Purdy

Yes. Morse and Dawkins are both cuttable and only on the books for 2024. We may be looking for both new starters in 2 years. Morse is also always a retirement risk with his concussion history.

More from a cap hit standpoint, not because Dawkins is bad.

Why is everyone not just a Bills fans?

Ravens stomped them, but that was more a reflection on the Brocketship crashing back to earth. CMC still ate.

I think if I had a vote today, I would vote for CMC. Lamar just doesn’t have the numbers, as awesome as he’s been, just like Josh doesn’t have the wins. CMC has both, and imo, no QB has run away with the award.

Was his offensive EPA/play elite though?

He’s as good as gone. Had his best year as a pro, with a bunch of splash plays, in a contract year. He’s Shaq Lawson 2.0. Will get overpaid somewhere, bounce around, and get brought back to Buffalo cheap in 3-4 years.

Brown has been pretty good this year. I think OT is still on the agenda, but it may be to replace Dawkins rather than Brown. I’m not sure the coaching staff would rather have Elam over Norman, and as the other poster stated, Norman’s next elevation comes with a spot on the 53.

Yes and it’s been crickets They can, and have, elevated Norman on game days.

I guess I mispoke, I think Miami wanted Wilson to take over as #3 this season.

Elam ain’t coming back. They stashed him on IR and replaced him with Norman.

that’s true, but I think the Dolphins brass wanted Wilson to be #3 in targets this season, not Trent. Because of his price tag.

So all those things matter in wins because they can be used in tiebreakers. you are flailing bad here lol. You’re the one who said TO’s don’t matter in wins. But I guess they do. Because of tiebreakers. You lose.