Mikie2times

I totally agree with this and it's pretty well documented as far as what the Bills envisioned with AJ. It's just sort of a bummer we draft a guy in the 2nd round with a clear need and have a multi year plan for him to basically get on the field. Then the end game is a 5-6 sack a year player. Even if he blows up, we lost his cost control years with the adjustment to his body. Such a limited path for success with this decision. If a pick that early is going to require that big of a transition I just don't see how he can be viewed as a 2nd round pick. That is a 4th/5th round pick type of strategy.

Look at what Baltimore did since he left. Its an offense that is easy to figure out and while he will get you at least a C/B offense, how he does it ensures it will go no further. Long term he is a huge weight that will keep that team down, especially Herbert.

Some of these answers are wild. People selecting Palmer or Moore over Keon. The formula is still in developmental mode, youth, potential injury, and general pedigree. Coleman, Cook, Kincaid, Sanders, Hairston, Brown. Bishop is still in the zone but hasn’t shown much. Some others. But I would take any of those names before guys like Palmer, Bosa, or Moore who have limitations. Sure you can choose to bet on one of them being a lotto card but the likelihood of it is infinitely smaller than just a young talented player figuring it out. We have several of those guys.

I want to play

They had arguably the greatest offense of all time with Moss that year. If a few things happen differently in one game they’re considered the greatest team in sports history. I’m sure they would have been just fine with a star WR long term if they went that route. Brady didn’t need it, that is what they proved. Ball was always going to an open player at light speed. They didn’t need a guy like Moss to make it work, but it would have been just fine either way. That one year it produced results like we have never seen before or since.

I don’t know if he would somehow become this target monster elsewhere. He’s a pure slot who lives within 10 yards of the LOS. 100 targets is a lot for a guy like that. You could argue he’s getting more looks on average here.

I don't think we can separate fantasy just from the standpoint that fantasy is production and that has to be meaningful. So I'm at least starting out with a production based list. 71 players had at least 40 targets last year and 5 Fantasy points a game. This excludes a guy like Rashee Rice, but I'm not trying to be perfect here. 33 of those 71 are below, with all of them likely ranking below Shakir from my view. Some closer than others, but got to start somewhere. That leaves 38 players below. The stack ranking is by fantasy points per game and it has Shakir at 32. Which is probably pretty close. I'm sure some here would prefer Shakir to Shaheed, Jeudy, Reed etc. But it's pretty close in that 30-40 range and that is likely where he is. Probably closer to the top half of it. I think what's also key to understand with Shakir is how important he is for OUR system. He is so difficult to tackle and is elite in the short passing game. Brady probably prefers him to many who are likely better just based on his skill set. Sort like an Edleman with the Patriots. I'm not sure if he was ever considered an elite WR, but what he did for the Patriots was critical to the success they had and as a result his value to them was likely much higher than the rest of the league.

They broke up because she had smelly butt? 🤯

Kincaids frame isn’t large enough to support 70 catches.

I will give him as many birthday wishes as he has sacks in a Bills uniform. Happy birthday @Alphadawg7

In case anybody needs a memory jog. I think some of this also has to do with what is going on in your life at the time and how much emotional bandwidth you have to invest. I actually found the Wade Phillips, Gregg Williams, Mike Mularkey era fairly enjoyable compared to other drought eras. Probably because it was still close enough to successful times or maybe just because I had more in the tank those years. Some interesting players as well. The demise for me started in the Jauron years. It seemed like hope just leaked out little by little each year after. To the point where I probably should have enjoyed the Gailey years more as the players of that era were enjoyable (Fred, Stevie, Fitz) but I just didn't think the team was any good. So it was hard to win my emotions over or overly devote emotional bandwidth to the team. I started to come around more again in the Marrone years, then I felt Rex, at the time, was interesting and needed. Even if he was a toe sucker. We needed something different and he was certainly that. It felt like we were getting closer at that time in some ways. The wild card drought breaker really came at a perfect time. Prior to Josh and so unexpected. That wasn't a playoff team but it didn't matter. It was just so good for the fans and I was thrilled or Kyle who was one of my all time favorite Bills. I could watch the celebration/clubhouse video a million times and it would never get old. For me it allowed some more patience and interest in the new regime. Once Allen started playing it's been pretty much early 1990-2000 must see TV every game.

I hope. Run him early. Let him get hit a few times.

Just kidding man!

Front runner

I think this is closer than the original. I would probably go something like this Boss: 5 sacks Rousseau: 9 sacks AJE: 5 sacks Jackson: 5 sacks Solomon: 2 sacks

100% and double 100% to the rest of it. It was a complete 180 with Brady vs Dorsey. Dorsey was dependent on downfield/low % throws from Allen, Allen's rushing, Air Yards, and limited running game. We had almost no way to be methodical. It magnified Allen risk taking. With Brady nearly the entire offense is designed for on schedule plays. Screens, high run%, check downs, all YAC. Then we mix in Allen's big play ability and his legs. That's who we are and it's a great recipe, but teams can certainly create problems for us at times (as they can for everybody). Assumptions that we will always be prolific like this thread seem to call out are just off base. If you jump on us early, we abandon the run game. If teams have the ability to play press effectively and play close to the line of scrimmage, our screen game isn't as effective and we struggle beating teams over the top. If you keep Allen in the pocket so much of his running game and improvisation is neutralized. We do not have any consistency in our on schedule medium/intermediate passing game. Baltimore did a very good job in both games exposing this. We saw it at times in the playoffs with lesser competition and execution. The Eagles are built to execute what I'm calling out. I think with the Super Bowl jitters Allen would start slow. They would jump on our shaky defense then condense the field on our offense. Our screens wouldn't be as effective. The run game wouldn't be as effective. This is exactly when our talent level at WR does matter. It would snowball fast and look a lot like Baltimore's first game, which will likely look a lot like our first game this year (IMO). That is, unless our defense can keep it close. That can at least help us stay away from pure Allen ball.

Actually, the difference is, what is repeatable vs what is not repeatable. The Ty Johnson play vs Denver was not repeatable. It was not part of our offense. It was Allen doing Allen things as Allen does most the year. This offense is a mirage. It's Allen off script creating for a large part of the production which losses consistency at random times as it's not a consistent way to generate offense. You need to actually understand the game a little to make such an observation.

No, is that clear enough?

Certainly possible, I just never viewed MM as having the demeanor to hold it down for multiple years.

Sort of what it looks like from the outside but I would say lack of respect vs sensitivity. Motivation, balance, is sort of a requirement of coaching. Being sensitive doesn't mean you meet the requirement or don't meet it (Dan Campbell or Dick Vermeil are both VERY sensitive as an example and both meet the requirement easily). Players ultimately have to respect you. That is what has to happen. If they don't it gets ugly after a few years which I expect we will see more of this season.

You did watch the Broncos game? We converted a miracle 4th down play. Otherwise that is a 7 point game heading into the 4th quarter with us scoring 13 points despite Denver not sustaining a drive. It was the same thing the year prior against the Steelers. 7 point game, 4th quarter. Offense couldn’t put them away. Then total fall asleep mode against Baltimore in the second half. Failed clutch drives vs KC back to back years. Colossal egg vs the Bengals. Completely asleep for the Texans in the second half. Failed OT drive to win. So what, against some KC teams with a bottom ranked defense we could trade scores only to fail when it mattered most. That is postseason locked it in to you? We have a host of games vs wild card scrubs. Another set vs KC when that Defense sucked. The offense has been far from consistent on a drive to drive bases and isn’t reliable when they have been needed most. Probably a result of depending on Allen pulling crap out of his rear for 50% of our offense.

We can't do this forever can we? Even if it has been true some years. It largely wasn't last year, but some people expect 100% health at this point. Would it surprise you this year if Benford gets hurt? How about Bernard? Who is backing Bernard up (hint, get Klein's number ready). If the defense is only as strong as those players we have a really big problem with our defensive philosophy.

Nothing is surprising. The Eagles were a complete team and the best in the NFL. People around here are mistaken if they think if we just get past the Chiefs somehow we will be Super Bowl winners. Our offense is still incredibly dependent on Allen, we still haven't shown the clutch playoff gene, Allen can still get sugar high. Assuming our offense is going to juggernaut in that spot and save the day is a HUGE assumption, one I don't agree with, and if it doesn't the game looks like the first Baltimore game fast.

An we wouldn't have won a shootout or even been competitive in a shootout with Baltimore.

We weren’t exactly juggernauts vs the better defenses. Denver held us to 13 until the end of the 3rd quarter when Allen connected with Johnson on the improbable 4th down. We scored 10 against Baltimore the first game and 6 in the 2nd half of the playoff game. Cooper was basically invisible in the playoffs. What other top 10 EPA defenses did we play last year? Houston? That didn’t go well. Detroit? (The same Detroit that allowed Washington to drop 50?). Offense has turtled in big games before. We can virtually guarantee the Eagles would drop 35 on us. But absolutely no guarantee Buffalo can produce against the higher end playoff squads in that moment. Philly was considerably better than everybody else and we couldn’t even get past the team they blew out of the building.