Mikie2times

I played with a guy who was blind in one eye in high school. He played corner and was probably the best open field tackler I’ve ever seen. It was incredible and I could never really understand how he was able to overcome that.

Bills fans react the same as scorned lovers. It really is that simple. Most of us just throttle our expectations to avoid getting hurt. It sucks living that way. Don’t blame people that do but prefer the other approach.

Fair, I could argue strength of schedule, within the world of DVOA is very accurate and more of a 20,000 foot view. But I can also appreciate the breakout. No question we have performed well in DVOA against who we have played. Dismissal of DVOA in either form makes me want hit my head against the wall. Pythagorean theorem is a very simple statistical tool to project future success. That is much more accurate then simply looking at W/L. Looking for unemotional data points that predict future success is a very logical pursuit. My focus once we over perform or under perform is trying to understand why and if that element is sustainable. As an example in our playoff season we ranked 21st in DVOA, so I looked at why? Turnover margin. I considered if it was sustainable. With somebody like Tyrod and our defense that year I felt it was. Generally speaking very little correlation exists in turnover rates over a full season so you see regression as the year progresses in teams with large + turnover differential early = regression to mean. I didn't see it in that team and I knew if that played out it had more weight then what DVOA could handle. I also see elements in this team I really tried to focus on in the original post as reasons why I think we will outperform our DVOA as we did in 2017.

DVOA had the Giants and Redskins beating us. This is a really disappointing response from the community on this thread. Not toward me, just toward an outright dismissal of the system that basically creates the Vegas lines and has the highest correlation toward winning % of any stat anywhere. This isn't Pro Football Focus. If you want to learn before you judge read below. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019 Use the drop down menu and sort by year.

McD wants only physical corners. Gilmore is nothing like that. I don't think we even considered it nor do I think we would even with the benefit of hindsight. Call it marriage to the scheme. We saw that with Rex and others, it's something that always bothered me and why I think NE is the best. BB is one of the few that is married to his players not a scheme and he excels at teaching them how to execute new schemes and game plans to fit exactly what the best mismatches are on a week by week basis. Everybody else looks for players that fit into a box that is part of a bigger box. BB could care less.

So much debate about how good we really are. It's indicative of every hot start we have had since the start of the playoff drought. Expectations rise and crash just as fast. DVOA is disgustingly accurate KPI brought to you by Football Outsiders. It is to the NFL what KenPom is to College Basketball. DVOA has us ranked 25th in the league with wins against, TEN 24th, NYG 26th, NYJ 30th, CIN 31st, and Miami 32nd. DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. That's not to turn this into a negative thread. We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. While I do believe we are accurately pegged on DVOA I also believe the way this team plays is designed to win swing games. Our defense is no bend and snap, ranking 2nd in the league in most third down attempts by offenses, 12th in 3rd down %, 3rd in yards per play Allowed, 5th in first downs per game, 5th in red zone attempts per game. Then dear gawd, 28th in RZ touchdown %. In sum, teams do not drive on us. We make that very difficult. If they do, they generally score touchdowns. Most of the league has below average QB play. So even getting in a position to impact our biggest weakness is not common. On the offensive side I will site one statistic. We rank first in the league in RZ TD scoring % and I put a lot of that on the very tangible impact of Josh Allen in the RZ. His ability to run, extend plays, and make very challenging throws (while seemingly improving his decision making) is all very abnormal in a condensed part of the field. But again, the way he plays, I see him being a Red Zone match up nightmare. He is also one of the few non franchise (current) QB's that seems to be a closer on the final drive. I think we will see the occasional dud on defense as better teams get deeper into the RZ. Just as we will see our offense struggle to ever reach the RZ and take advantage of it's best strength. In a league built with a lot of truly porous defenses and low quality QB play we will beat most the teams within 5-10 rankings of our DVOA that fit that description . End result is a Wild Card team and a chance at potentially winning a road playoff game. Prior to the year that would have been considered a smashing success. Even if we beat Philadelphia it was still far and away the most probable outcome as far as a road wild card team. Enjoy the ride guys. It's usually never as good or bad as it seems.

I don’t know. I think the league/owners want protection in some way in case refs make a horrific mistake, such as the non call that generated the rule change. That said, the league has been pretty clear on how they intend on enforcing it. Unless it is a serious error nothing will change. I’m good with that. I was worried we would see tic tac stuff and that would have been painful to watch. By next year I doubt we get many challenges on account of the way it’s being enforced, but we still get to keep the protection. Best of both worlds.

I’ll bite. Kaep is likely at back up replacement level. That is to say, I imagine he would be able to compete for a #2 or #3 spot. But let’s be real here. Why would any employer hire this guy? Is any #2 or #3 spot worth the distraction he comes with? What about in the private sector? Would you hire a low to mid level staff that has the ability to potentially distract all of your staff?

One play I would love to see resurface more which was a Bills staple in the early 90’s was the direct snap to the RB. No reason that play can’t be just as effective in today’s game.

My takeaway from all this is play-action. I have said repeatedly that Allen is one of the better under center play-action QB’s in the league. It’s about the only time you always see him in perfect rhythm, planting, fluid arm motion, flawless delivery. Watch film even back to Wyoming and he was a monster in play-action under center.

I'm not willing to say that being one sided in this stat is 100% doom. As an example, the Rams only run the ball 3% of the time in Shotgun and they seem to have a pretty damn good offense. That said I'm wondering what some of you think that have seen all the games. I don't watch as many games on TV or in person as many on the site. Under Daboll this year with our QB under center we run the ball 76% of the time good for the 4th highest run ratio under center. Then in Shotgun we run only 12% of the time, good for 29th lowest run ratio in Shotgun. On the surface it appears like a predictable thing to avoid, but I don't know if it's that black and white. Buffalo does fall pretty hard to the extreme. Interesting and again curious on if we look predictable based on what your seeing (for those who have watched all the games). https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html

Sentimental couple drinks in. Geez, 28 years. Gross.

My fellow Bills brothers, I'm born and raised outside Detroit. No ties to WNY. I have been a Bills fan since 1991, I'm 37. So 18 years of dedicated service. Understandably well short of many of you on these forums. I fell in love with you and this team because they stood for what I felt I stood for, even as a kid. Resilience, excitement, loyalty, incredible devotion from the fans and then the glory of football played in that region with weather. You would be surprised how many of us are out there. As an outsider I can tell you I can't imagine what it is like playing for the Bills. On a national level, very little recognition (of course that comes with success) but on a local level, 1,000,000 Watt Light Bulb in a smaller market. Prior to this season I made a post about expecting this team to make the playoffs. It was widely dismissed. Now as it has been with each year I have followed the team when we performed early, expectations are shifting. It's good keeping in line, our bar was set at 6 wins by the best sports brains in the world (Las Vegas). I thought it was a laughable number. That said I'm starting to see the complaints of our beloved team get more granular. Concerns that you would make if you had Super Bowl aspirations. This team is not at that point yet. If they win Sunday they are not at that point. They aren't at that point until they get to that point. We have reason right now for incredible optimism and excitement and I stand behind my playoff prediction. Lets stay balanced. Let's not freak the hell out this year. Allen WILL do enough to let the defense do enough to get us to the next level. Then it's possible he can do much more than enough. Let's win a game in the playoffs then lets see what happens. I don't think any of us thought the end of our playoff drought was earned. We had better teams that didn't make the playoffs prior. This team is different. They're ascending, the rest of them were all teams that were flat lined. I have a feeling this is going to be a bit of a roller coaster the next year or two but the start of some great memories. For the younger fans, something they never experienced.

I don't disagree with pressure reps this season, but I dismiss the angle on the Bills being more prepared for a pressure situation. If Brady has the ball and a TD wins I don't see Buffalo stopping it. That's even with a very good defense. Perhaps the positives I do see in this that coincide with your thoughts is unlike previous years if afforded enough time I do think Allen can counter. It's a matter of keeping it a one possession game and winning the last 2 drives. That's what I hate about the Patriots. You can play even or within one score or even with a nice lead and they still, at the very worst, always seem to be in position for one last drive. In that scenario about the only time that drive gets stopped is with a lot of pressure on Brady.

Interesting. Fair enough. I just used Sportsurge after the shutdown and didn't look back. Looks like the historical CFB thread is still shut down. That's what I really love it for. CFB games are always no lag, HD. NFL games seem to be a little more hit and miss, but not exactly something you can complain about. I like my sub $50 a month all in cable/internet Bill with a $20 in Roku subscriptions. Sports was the only frustrating part in that set up until I found the holy grail.

Provide me a link to an active reddit streaming forum for NFL or College Football please. Shutdown happened about 3 weeks ago.

Reddit streaming is dead. It's now through Sportsurge as Gonzo pointed out. I watch all my sports on that. Most CFB streams are HD quality. Most marquee NFL games are HD quality. Sometimes the Bills games or NFL games in general will get a lag here or there. All in all, it's easy as hell to use.

All those hits. Surgeries. Has lived off his raw ability which declines at a faster rate based on how often you take a beating. Just watch his body language whenever things aren’t going well. Defeated. Lately that’s most the time. He still has some years left of above replacement level, but not a franchise QB anymore. I would be moving on if I was Carolina.

This stuff goes sideways with Kids. It all stops if the youth leagues and high schools start to get involved and realistically, hard to imagine that doesn’t happen eventually. Anybody who played at any level wanted that knock out shot highlight. It’s cemented into the game at every level. If you don’t believe me watch Ronnie Lott’s kid just drop another pee wee player with a home run shot. What did you think Lott’s coach said? His teammates? His father? Maybe you should have held up a bit? Hell no. It was all go team butt slaps.

I mean, if we can get a great return sure. But you have to figure the injury bug bites at some time. So whatever his role is he will have to contribute and we will need him.

If you played football, don’t tell me you didn’t like a shot at a crack back where they didn’t see you coming. It’s part of the game. It is pointless and higher risk to injury and so was Williams at that time. But the level of hate on this. Sure it’s because we loved Williams but most fans act like it was premeditated. Simple truth to it is he got a dream crack back and acted like most football players would. I wish he wouldn’t have went so high but again, the knock out shot is still very much in most players minds. That’s the mindset very early with the sport.

Sam Cowart

From some of these responses it sounds like the OP has a history here of some fun stuff. What I think he means is why can't a player with the stats you mentioned elevate his team to the next level (Super Bowl). Reality is, most people don't put Luck in elite status anymore and those are really the only ones that could do it eventually by themselves. For the 99% of the rest of the situations you need a complete team. Luck is getting closer and it still might not be enough. It wasn't for the Bills at a much higher level. I will agree, I do think Luck does have some choke in his game. I would think with a more complete team they should have a group that could go to the Super Bowl. I just don't think he will ever get there, more of a feeling than stats with that.

For Tre to go, we need to have a lot of success as a team. As one poster said about DE’s and sacks, the masses respect INT’s for DB’s. Tre is more of a blanket than a ball hawk. He’s well on the radar of people who really watch football. But if you ask most general fans who Tre White is they would have no idea. With success it will force people to look at the why and clearly the more you look at what he does all around, he’s an exceptional player. I would give Edmunds, Oliver, and Hughes the best chance if we aren’t as successful as a team just based on all 3 being able to get peoples attention with stats. If Oliver ends up being the player we think he is he could even help Hughes go before he does. I really think Oliver will be special but it’s not as if we are coming off some scrub at that position.

Drink a few beers and retake the test