Mikie2times

They seem to depend on the defense breaking down more with using athleticism. Brees, Brady, Manning, were not going to run. Which I think forces more development in reading defenses to be honest. When will Josh become better in the pocket? When he doesn't have a choice.

Otto Graham refence prior to 1pm. Check

I think last year was us overestimating the impacts of losing guys like Diggs, Morse, Poyer, etc. It just turned out to not matter a great deal and it allowed us to be at or slightly above the level we had been at previous years. Which for me sort of blends together into a big soup of very good, but just not good enough. A few players away etc. To move beyond that statement of a few players away the path in my mind is guys like Bishop, Benford, Coleman, Kincaid, Bernard having really big years. That or us landing somebody in the draft that can really elevate our play this year. I'm a bit pessimistic here that we see this play out, but certainly acknowledge (and hope) that it will go that way. I'm less bullish on Bosa than some here. He hasn't been what we hoped he can be here for 3+ years. His injuries are not break and heal types, more reoccurring/consistent. He just doesn't seem like he will be able to stay healthy to the extent that he could push a 10 sack performance. A 4-6 sacks performance would be fairly similar to Von. More bullish on Forrest, Ogunjobi, Hoecht but two of those three won't play for a bit so hard to say what to expect. So to say I don't think we have any paths to improvement isn't really how I feel. But imagine if everything I just said was partnered with DK Metcalf or Hendrickson. So you added that elite player and then you still held all these cards which could turn out to be very good hands. That is what we should be doing (in my opinion) at this stage of our progression with Allen and the franchise. We have been very close for a very long time and we keep depending on our cards to really turn out when we could be more bold and force that to happen. We did this with Von, it would have worked out. He got hurt. But it doesn't mean it was the wrong move.

Have we heard of any activity with him at this point?

Prior to the start of last year everybody was just wrong on this team. The offensive line ended up being our biggest strength. Allen rose his level of play. Cook exploded. The turnover differential became even more extreme. But we still saw the reasons to be concerned and question if we could play with the top 3-5 teams come playoff time. Lack of a space eating DT, lack of a separating WR, secondary concerns. Just because we survived Baltimore and nearly beat KC didn't leave me walking away thinking we had the edge. I don't even know if we would win 3 of 10 at home vs the Ravens. We did that day and that's what matters, but we are talking about our future trajectory. We have seen so many iterations of this team and as of last year this particular version is not as good as past versions from a talent perspective. Better as a whole? Likely, but not as talented. Our EPA on defense excluding turnovers was among the worst in the NFL. It was top 10 in the past. We couldn't get off the field last year. So shame on anybody if they think a Josh Allen led team will not be competing for a division title and in thick of it as many did last year. But have we slanted the field in our direction as a team should progressively do over time with a guy like Allen? Absolutely not. We have not added a difference maker in two years. With a threat of three years if we don't bag one this year. Sure one could develop, and that's what you hope for as our FA classes are largely depth. But at this stage of the offseason I can't say staying even is improving. It's a step back to me, because to take the next step and push the deck in our favor we needed to be a little better.

And the last year and the year before. Some people feel those three points might as well be 30. Which is not a hard argument to make. We have only been to the AFC championship game two times across the McD era. This team is not clearly more talented than the past. Fairly easy to argue it is less talented, and most certainly is on defense. We haven’t come within 3 points in a Super Bowl. We haven’t made it to a Super Bowl. So it doesn’t really feel like a play or two away from my view point. It feels like we need to get incredibly lucky with our health (again). Probably beat at least one, if not two, teams that have a better roster on the AFC side. Then we can get to the Super Bowl and hope we don’t run into a juggernaut like Philly which we haven’t even had the chance to experience yet. Long way to go from a play or two unfortunately.

WR Worse Palmer went 584 yards and 1 TD last year. WITH a solid QB and fairly light competition for targets. Which is within the stat profile range of players like Amari Cooper, Mac Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deonte Hardy. I like Palmer and I'm optimistic about him, but to be objective, subtracting a guy like Mac and Cooper for him is not a break even until proven otherwise. Safety Better I agree with this more based on the expectation that Bishop takes a big step. Forrest could end up being the next Poyer/Hyde acquisition or he could end up being more like Cam Lewis. Similar to Palmer, being objective, it's a total crap shoot. D Line Slightly better In the last 3 years Von Miller has more sacks than Joey Bosa. It's not just one injury either, nagging issues like back problems make availability a serious question mark. Partner that with the likely further decline of DaQuan Jones who is still the starting 1 Tech and this group feels more break even. It does have some upward paths no doubt. A good draft, the availability of Hoecht and Ogunjobi, but we don't know what this looks like yet. Some improvement here, but will be hard to know until we get further along. Corner Worse I like Jackson for depth, but you can't subtract a multi year starter and replace him with Dane Jackson and call it a break even. This will depend on further additions and the draft. We don't seem signifgantly better or worse for that matter. Which for me is really disappointing as I feel we have been so close for so long, just one significant upgrade is all it will take and we haven't added one in 2023 or 2024. Our only path for 2025 will be the draft.

One of my all time favorite Bills. I will never forget his one handed house call vs the Patriots ("Just give to um"). He was a YAC demon.

We aren't better than last year on paper. But a lot can change between the draft and player development. We will see.

The bold part

Can you explain why, if this is the case, it is that way (your opinion is fine)

These are the players we have added via Free Agency and the Draft the last two years. Is thinking it's Beane really that big of a stretch? Look at this offseason and who we have added. If we draft the same the list of garbage will extend 3 seasons. At that point he is no longer a top 15 GM. You can't go 3 years with barely adding multiple starters and no difference makers.

It’s becoming more and more likely that we could go 2 years with Torrence being the biggest addition to this team. That goes for the draft and free agency. If a B right guard is the best addition you added in two years, you haven’t had a very good two years.

Dad Irish and Scottish, Mother Greek

Will they have to and I would be more worried about the next couple years vs just next year. It doesn't take that creative of an imagination to see this Bengals team and all it's dumb decisions, leap frogging us. As they did a few years ago. We have had major issues defending Burrow, I would say even more so than Mahomes. If they can get a pulse in the areas they have been struggling in that's all it will take.

Burrow is the best pure passer in the NFL and has arguably the best WR unit. I don’t particularly love this. It isn’t impossible to build a half competent defense thru the draft and that’s about all they will need to be a very hard out.

He said he snorted a supplement off a nuns cleavage and washed it down with a glass of kittens blood.

How much influence is Allen having on those rankings vs in the individual talent of the rest of the team? This is what I wrote upstream. This concept with Josh impacting reality extends into nearly every element of this team. How often does Allen bail in the pocket after 2 seconds or less? All but securing our OL won't take a sack. How guarded does the defense need to be defending Allen, opening up our traditional run game? How often do we jump on teams in the first few minutes rendering them one dimensional on offense? Josh REALLY makes it difficult to view what is real and what isn't. Who is good and who isn't. I think Beane has drafted fairly well, especially for B level talent and not completely missing. I take into account that we draft late. Where I think Beane has really failed is in his FA additions / missing in key areas / and position fit. We have barely been able to land B talent in Free Agency since Hyde and Poyer, which is likely by design, but for me becomes an issue when we aren't getting that "A" level in the draft. The DT position has been neglected, specifically the 1 tech role (and still is). WR position has been neglected and assembled in such a bizarre way. Oversized wideouts, missing the outside wideout completely, lack of use. TE has been assembled in odd fashion. As we dump a big contract into Knox and go with Kinkaid shortly after. Really the entire defense, starting with the DL has underdeveloped given the resources invested. The hits were more prevalent in the past, but the last two years we have done so little in the draft or Free Agency to better this team.

I think it's more to help us get to the truth, whatever the truth is. Josh Allen has made that VERY difficult. I think the truth could range anywhere from both McD / Beane are top 10 at what they do, to one or both are actually much worse and a primary reason we have not been able to get much past the divisional round.. I don't view our postseason trajectory compared to being the literal best team in the NFL in the regular season as some random outcome or the Chiefs or injuries as primary driver. I just think it takes a lot more to win when you get that deep in the playoffs and the massive edge Allen creates in the regular season just isn't strong enough to overcome on it's own in the 2nd round or later. This concept with Josh impacting reality extends into nearly every element of this team. How often does Allen bail in the pocket after 2 seconds or less? All but securing our OL won't take a sack. How guarded does the defense need to be defending Allen, opening up our traditional run game? How often do we jump on teams in the first few minutes rendering them one dimensional on offense? Josh REALLY makes it difficult to view what is real and what isn't. Who is good and who isn't. We have an entire brigade on this forum that feels even acknowledging this as a legitimate question is borderline trolling. I think it's ultimately the question that will decide if Allen ever gets a Super bowl.

And next year when the roster looks largely the same?

Literally the second sentence While not perfect I tried to answer some of that below as a follow up to the original thread. It's not a perfect way to do it given no perfect way exists. As a result, some people like yourself will attack the method vs ever offering anything as an alternative outside of your opinion, which somehow you feel is more valid than a process that is at least applied in a consistent manner across multiple views points.

McNeil, Davis, Reader, all got hurt in that game, they had 1 starting DL healthy, no starting CB’s, 1 starting LB. Winning one regular season game or losing one (as we did vs Baltimore) isn't the tell all be all on how talented we are or not. I was going to respond but this is just a pure homer take. Which I have gotten into with you before in the past.

No it’s not, I’ve already looked it up about 8 times.

Yes, they include alternates. Which add to the depth of the number of entries. Cook and McGovern were on this list for 2024 (as an example). The Lions had half the team out when we played and you’re probably the only person even on this forum that thinks we have a better roster than the Ravens. We also have the league MVP at QB which tends to make up for a little talent deficiency.

It’s not to say McD is perfect either. In fact I would probably rate them somewhat similar. McD has certainly had some fairly horrifying moments in the playoffs. But to get to your answer, what McD does better than anybody is build defenses that force turnovers. Which is a really big deal. He might be the best and most consistent at this in the NFL. Lower performing regular season teams will be impacted by this more. His defense is also much more vulnerable to the run can the pass, which rarely matters in the regular season as we are much more likely to jump ahead and make teams one dimensional. So my current theory is in the postseason its not a talented roster falling apart. It’s more a roster with a ton of shortcoming finally getting exposed. McD can hide it in the regular season, but he’s just not good enough to do so as we get deeper in the playoffs. I’m not sure how many would be good enough to do so either.