Mikie2times

Really good video.

Damn, I liked him in the draft. I'm also a Western alum. He was a great player for us.

6. Phidarianitus

When it happens I will believe it can happen.

So the assumption is we can check the box on defense at this point? We had the #1 EPA defense in 2021, 7th in 2022, 11th in 2023, 12th in 2024, and now 12th in 2025. We have had many times in the regular season where we look unbeatable on defense. I'm hopeful our investment pays off and it looks like it can. But at the end of the day we have been down that road plenty of times before. We are one more injury away from even an optimistic look on that side of the ball falling apart. Max, Bishop, Bosa, Benford, all it takes is one more. That's assuming it all comes together as you hope it will this time. To your call out, yes, separation was an issue on our final two drives vs the Chiefs. It's not about isolating to specific plays. It's about increasing the margin for success. Our margin in those situations is razor thin. You increase it by increasing your ways to win. Maybe Josh doesn't see that blitz on 4th down if he never gets to 4th down. Our formula almost guarantees our offense will have to deliver on multiple high leverage drives in the postseason. I don't see the horses to execute that drive. Glad you do.

We have been a top 3 DVOA team since the beginning of time. We haven't closed the deal. Nobody is arguing this is a bad team. They're arguing we have shown nothing further to suggest we are more likely to avoid our standard playoff demise.

I give him the benefit of the doubt more than most as far as weirdness, but this is f'n weird

We need a professional emjoi interpreter

That offense is going to be nasty

I'm going to take a time out and think about this more

I know you like to throw that caveat in because I have discussed this with you before. But our total production outside of Buffalo is such a small sliver of the pie, I really don't think it somehow validates AV as a measure for draft success. The stat is influenced by too much. I applaud the attempt at trying to solve for the unsolvable problem in a uniform way. It's creative and well done. I just don't agree that is accurate enough.

I figured it was about 1% give or take. Didn't agree with it, but not the end of the world

He is not over 75% outside of Denver at 40+ years old. The Hail Mary defense was executed perfectly. This isn't a witch hunt, it's one call I don't agree with.

I said it in our TBD fantasy league in real time so not exactly hindsight. The variance on this decision on win rate is around 1%. I still think kicking puts you on the wrong side of that 1%, but not worth starting a thread on. I don't see anybody in this thread taking the time to prove this out, so all opinion.

Prater is 75% at best in that spot, that's a 25% chance to have several clean shots at the goal line. I don't think they had any chance if they had to go the field. So I didn't like the call.

Not at all. The right move was to punt. That said, I'm not giving him a hard time. He did an excellent job Sunday.

Given how you're using AV is subject to how you build your roster, yes, different philosophies leading to different results. "Draft, Develop, Retain" as Beane says. Your big call out is nothing more than how the Bills like to build the team and the total success they have had which provides more AV points. They don't bring many competitive free agents and will give excessive chances to draft picks. Allen pulls the rankings up more which provides more AV points to be distributed. This method is severely flawed to to the point where I doubt the people at pro football reference would even consider it functional.

I mean, his picks are competing with his own roster. So I’m not sure how valid AV is.

You think Allen is just going to throw it all over the field in that spot?

My opinion is Cook won't be on the field. As much as I don't like it. In a no huddle where you can't sub easily Johnson is the guy in the game and has been for virtually every high leverage two minute drill we have had. Shakir will be heavily minimized by the situation. He's not catching a lot of balls 10+ yards downfield. It's nearly all at the line of scrimmage. I trust Kincaid the most as an option, but I don't know how much we will scheme him open in such a situation.

Lets see what we can do here

I have some bad news guys

Christmas was not kind to you as a child I take it?

The clock killing throw to Cook was big. Great seeing. I don't see much of that playing out in a true 2 minute drill, Cook wasn't even on the field last year. I don't think he would in this situation either. @Buffalo716 The question is specifically about the offense in this situation. We all can hope we never face such a situation. So your vote is Allen to put a cape on?