Mikie2times

Fun fact, they say not to use THC for several months prior to major surgery. I guess it impacts your body's ability to heal larger surgical wounds. I did not listen. So I needed another surgery to fix the fact that the other one didn't heal correctly. Cannabinoid receptors are very complicated with so many interactions to our body. Despite being around forever the medical community still doesn't have a grasp on it all. Certainly not long term impacts of chronic use from edibles or extremely high THC concentrated products. As a simple example most edibles don't contain CBD. CBD is considered to potentially be a neurological protector to some of the negative impacts of THC. Even if we did know more, we don't know what ingesting just THC without CBD will do over a long period of time. That's just one product and one consideration. We have THC extracts at 50%+ THC levels. All sorts of ways to ingest it that are far outside what we might know more about. I would guess it can't be worse than alcohol, but just as confident it's not benign.

In the 13 games prior to his injury including 4 playoff games, he had 93 catches, 1,068 yards, and 6 TD's. He would have went for something like 115 catches, 1,200 yards, and 10 TD's if he stayed healthy all of the last year. That is getting into elite WR production. So maybe a little premature to say he was that, but it was certainly looking that way.

Gabe Davis!

Always high end content from your end

If we had one ring let alone enough to fill up nearly two hands we wouldn’t be talking about this. So I guess I don’t get the comparison.

Name the best QB we have faced in our division outside of Tua, a guy that has lost like 70% of his starts vs winning teams. I don’t know what this statement is trying to prove. We are the best regular season team in football since 2020. Does that mean we have to an elite roster or are we accomplishing it with turnovers, MVP QB play, and a horrific division?

Aj Brown is a top 5 WR. Barkley is the best running back in the NFL. Jalen Carter was a first team All Pro. Again, how does that compare to Shakir, Cook, and Oliver? That’s just 3 of the 6 Eagles players voted All Pro. This is one of the worse takes I’ve seen on here in awhile. We have a thick “B” roster. Outside of that we might have 1 All Pro and the fact that nobody knows if it’s Brown, Cook, or Benford sort of speaks to how dominant they really are. We aren’t left to guess with the Eagles top 5.

What is our match if those guys are not elite? Taron, Shakir, and Oliver? lmao... Really?

I also think he would be much better fit for the big slot role. But we have Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Moore who are all likely better in the slot than anywhere else. Throw in Keon. Just not a lot of room for Keon to get reps there.

Not trying to be a jerk here, but this is the usual stuff on the board and I don't give anybody a pass. You have no idea if our injuries are more or less. Even within the context of just playoff teams, let alone the the regular season. The Lions or the _____'s or the ____'s have nothing to do with it. The injury beating crew do it without the context of what is normal and what is not normal. How can anything be abnormal if you cant establish normal? I will place my fake bet and say the Buffalo Bills from 2020-2025 have not faced an abnormal amount of injuries comparative to the league average. Are you putting your fake bet down to say that isn't the case?

But ultimately we are left with this narrative that we have been severely hamstrung by injuries. Which I don’t dismiss but has also never been verified within context. I hate that this thought lingers as one of the reasons but ultimately we have no idea.

The way the ended the Wild Card year was a full implosion. They started 10-1 ended up losing 6 of 7 and got blown out in the wild card game. It forced both coordinators to be fired and the GM basically dictating changes to the HC or he would get canned as well. The changes resulted in what you saw this year. What would you call that?

Failure forces self reflection. The bigger the failure the more reflection required. Many teams have taken the next step as a result of an implosion. Eagles are an example of that. Our regular season success has promoted a run it back attitude. Again, I don’t know if that’s good or bad. A McD coached team is going to be + in the turnover battle almost no matter what. Partner that with an MVP QB and we will never really implode. That’s not a bad thing, but it might not be a good thing either as far as change is concerned.

Have you ever played poker with somebody that raises the blinds nearly every hand? It doesn’t take that long to figure out how to handle them.

I’m curious if you think any part of it is the history of these players or who we target. As an example, would it at all be surprising to see Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Milano go down? 2 of the 4 we just extended. We do target small players on all three levels. Many are physically maxed out. Like a Milano, who just felt like his body would just give way eventually. Even Mad Max missed several games at Kentucky this past year. I don’t know this answer but I have considered it. I’m hesitant to draw too much from the injuries just because I don’t believe people have an intimate understanding of what other teams are going thru. Bengals playoff game they had half the offensive line out. Lions last year were completely depleted. We have never lost Josh and for the most part have sustained no significant injuries on offense in how many years? Meanwhile tons of teams have lost critical players that have basically knocked them out of even the playoffs. I just think leaning into the injuries as a reason is a dangerous game. Do we expect to be any healthier than last year again? Do we know relative comparisons to say how disadvantaged we have been? I don’t know if it’s all that severe in the scheme of things. Not sure and I haven’t met a poster here that had the information to really shed any light on it.

You data nerd 🤣 great post

He has 6 total TD's and 10 turnovers in 5 playoff losses. His pick six and two turnovers certainly cost them dearly vs us. He might not be the only thing, but the defense has held up as well as any outside of the Eagles from the regular season to the playoffs. It sure seems like a big part is on him.

I don't think being #1 means you will finish #1. Being among the best shows that pretty clearly. Which Buffalo has consistently done more so than anybody since 2020. We do have similarities to Baltimore, but for them the answer is pretty clear. Lamar hasn't performed. With Buffalo, the regression is far worse and as I said, likely unprecedented in the time frame this type of data is available in. We are 50% worse than Dallas in our defensive regression and Dallas is 100% worse than the next closest team. The answers are far more complicated for us and we have a completely divided fan base that ranges from calling people who focus on this haters, negative fans, all this other crap. To fans that don't really acknowledge the severity of this and lean into the regular season. To me it's completely reasonable to have either take but completely unreasonable to think either are being unreasonable. I'm with you 100% on all of this

It can be parts of many things and likely is, this notion that teams luck into a Super Bowl is flawed. It's nearly always among the leagues best teams winning. Still, I don't think we have ever seen a regression so severe in the modern history of this game as we have seen from Buffalo, regular season to postseason since 2020. So it seems like a stretch to say luck, KC, or even injuries. Maybe all three? Other teams have also failed to overtake the Chiefs, but statistically they have not regressed in such a spectacular way. Perhaps your point at the end is the case or at least part of it. Either way, with this defensive collapses and the offenses failing to win in clutch moments, it's really hard to see the playoff light. Even the more recent narrative of just needing a defensive talent infusion is accurate, but we have had very high performing defenses in the past and that's what this data is made from. So does that get us over the hump?

It's not really stupid. What is stupid is a 14-3 team playing a wild card game on the road. I understand the NFL consistently tweaks a product most of us would rather not be tweaked, but some advancements can actually better the game.

Thanks man. I have had the discussion before and of course that has merit. Way more so than the gods of random luck in my opinion. I still think something is off with how this team performs in the postseason. Even if we look at some of our wins. Miami- We trailed midway thru the 3rd before taking our first lead, 27-24 with 5:18 left, ultimately winning 34-31 Pittsburgh- We get ahead 21-0, then let Pittsburgh claw back, it's 24-17 before we finally put the nail in the coffin with 6:27 left in the 4th Denver- We are up 13-7 late in 3rd quarter, Allen completes an incredible TD pass to Ty Johnson and then we pour it on I get these are playoff teams, but these teams were also led by Skyler Thompson, Mason Rudolph, and Bo Nix (rookie) at home. Does the best team in football (according to DVOA) play with it's food like this? We are always too close to the sun and we get burned when we level up. Even worse from another view. Since 2020 we have #1 regular season offensive EPA. Now wait for it, the #2 regular season defensive EPA. Which is mind boggling to be honest. We have nearly the best offensive AND defensive units in football in the regular season since 2020. If you look at those Top 5 DVOA teams since 2020 that have had at least 2 or more top 5 finishes: This is how much those offenses improved or regressed in the postseason. This is how much those defenses improved or regressed in the postseason What I don't understand at times is why this fan base responds so negatively to any negativity on this subject as it relates to McD, Beane, or even our drafting strategy. This type of data is not Kansas City. It can't possibly be explained by Kansas City nor can it be explained by how the ball bounces. I would venture to say that no team in any 6 year sample meeting this criteria has seen this type of regression in the playoffs on either side of the ball in NFL history. The fan base has a right to call it out and doing so does not make you a negative fan (not saying you're saying that, but many here do).

2 minute mark, that is what I hope we can see more of this year. That seam route is the type of throw and catch I thought we would be able to execute with more frequency.

Since 2018 (I couldn't go back further with the site I used) Every Super Bowl winner but one has been Top 5 DVOA in the regular season (The only exception was Brady and the Patriots in 2018) 11 of 14 participants in the Super Bowl since 2018 were Top 5 in DVOA Good teams are getting to Super Bowls and Winning Super Bowls Buffalo is the best regular season team since 2020 by any measure, but they aren't winning or getting to Super Bowls. Eventually that starts to stick out at the level we have done it with. Buffalo has more Top 5 DVOA finishes than any team in football since 2020 with 5 and is in a tie for 5 total with KC dating back to 2018 Teams with at least 4 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore and Buffalo Teams with at least 3 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans Teams with at least 2 top 5 DVOA finishes who have yet to make a Super Bowl include Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas We have had prolific success since 2020. Nobody has accomplished what we have as consistently as we have in the regular season. At the same time, nobody has underachieved more in the playoffs. The teams that have also underachieved like Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas isn't a good group you want to be associated with. I don't think any of us look at it as unlucky either. Lamar has given games away. LaFleur has put the Packers in horrible positions. Half the board just got done trying to convince me Sean Payton is an all time playoff hack outside of his SB win. Dallas is the most paper soft team in the game. So are we more like those teams or are we more like Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Rams, etc? It seems like people are so sure we are more like the Super Bowl group. But the longer this goes, the more questions will get asked and the more we look like the ones who just won't get it done. Chart below

For the most part I would say. Most of the teams that are contenders also spent considerably more at WR if they didn’t already have a stacked room. So I do think those concerns have some validity. But DL and DB seem to be the most premium positions by the higher performing teams with WR third.