glazeduck

There are no easy answers to improving the TE position, right now. Honestly, the biggest development would be Knox making a jump, but it's hard to see that occuring and probably even less likely that this front office relies on that. Given our cap situation, the way we've addressed the position in the past and the myriad needs needing filling, I think the more likely and better ROI approach is to sign more of a Rudolph-level TE and roll with more of a 1a/1b approach at the position. I just don't think we have the resources to invest heavily here -- especially for what we'd be getting out of that investment -- and still adequately address our other needs.

Another interesting player at a position of need...

Agree with everything you say here -- his tape does not show a lot. That said, there are plenty of examples where a talented kid did not develop due to poor college coaching, yet has everything untapped to be a great pro. That may or may not be the case here, but I think his movement drills and flexibility could bely a great opportunity to unearth a diamond amidst the crap that was that FSU defense.

The TE position this offseason is rough. Few great options anywhere, frankly, and those top-notch ones will cost a premium -- either in cap space or draft capital. There's a lot to like about Jordan, I think Delanie Walker is a decent comp for him -- smaller than your average TE, but can be effective in both the vertical passing game as well as blocking. While he's not a SPARQ superstar, he's a plenty good enough athlete to be a weapon in a vertical offense like ours. Will he be the next Kelce/Kittle/Waller? Probably not, but we could certainly do way worse. Again though, with it being a weak class, I won't at all be surprised if someone likes him enough to make him a 2nd rd. pick, which probably takes him out of play for us. If you're looking for a high ceiling prospect at a lower price, take a look at Tre McKitty. He'll go cheaper than Jordan and is a bigger and superior athlete. He bounced around schools in college, so the production and tape suggests a predictable lack of chemistry and opportunity. He's far from a sure thing, but that also corresponds to his price...

I like, maybe even borderline love, Jonnu Smith the player, but as a FA I think someone's going to back up the Brinks truck for him. This is a bad TE draft class and a worse TE FA class -- all hitting when we're seeing the position emerge as more of a difference maker. It won't be him. I think Rudolph is most likely, based on nothing more than a gut feeling. As I've said elsewhere, I'd love to trade up for Pitts but recognize that's probably a loooong shot...

Jonathan Adams Jr. is my late round, big wr of choice. Vasher's interesting but I'm not sure he'll ever have the speed and agility to separate as needed.

It's worth pointing out that the 2 most massive QB developments of this past generation have both come working with Morse. I don't know how much that actually means, or if it's just an anomaly, but a player's worth to an organization can certainly be a lot greater that just what you see on the field. Furthermore, yeah, our running game sucked this year, but how did we manage that? We threw all day. I know there's a school of thought that you still have to run the ball to win, and yes McD has even said as much, but when your OL is built to pass protect, and your RBs are at or below avg. and you've got a great QB... at what point do you have to question whether or not restructuring to fit a "should" is worth it?

While I do agree that DE is a pretty glaring need (I'd even be okay with trading up for one), 2 things need to be said about that spot and your comment above: 1. It's going to be impossible to fill every need with an affordable, dynamic player. It just is. 2. Whether we like it or not, I think there's going to be a pretty serious onus on Epenesa developing into solid, reliable player. A good deal of next season's success could rely on that.

Respect the amount of work put in here, differ pretty strongly with a lot of the specific elements. No way Collins falls to the end of the 3rd. Doubtful Hayes lasts to the 5th. Cannot see us taking a S with our one semi-premium pick when we have as many holes to fill as we do. Really think TE and RB need upgrading, one is not addressed at all and the other simply with late rd. flyer on a rookie. I don't really see it with Okwara, and the Lions drafted his brother (the more talented of the two) in last year's draft, so I'd be a little surprised if he left.

Pitts - hell yes! Harris - god no!

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.

Never in a million years could this happen, but this was a fun one... 39. Jaelan Phillips EDGE Miami (FL) 67. Alim McNeill DT North Carolina State 70. Brevin Jordan TE Miami (FL) 93. D'Ante Smith OT East Carolina 119. Nico Collins WR Michigan 146. Paulson Adebo CB Stanford 158. Jamin Davis LB Kentucky 174. Jermar Jefferson RB Oregon State 178. Joshua Kaindoh EDGE Florida State 215. Jonathan Adams Jr. WR Arkansas State 234. Olaijah Griffin CB USC

Everett will get paid, I think, if for nothing else, than just how bad this FA class is at TE. I'm indifferent on Raymond. I can see the appeal, but you also have to wonder why he's never really popped in an offense that's basically held the door wide open for someone *to* pop.

I know it doesn't really add anything to this conversation, but I think folks are underestimating the quality of FAs and cuts we'll be seeing this year. Obviously $ is somewhat tight, but with a handful of restructures (which can often benefit the player as well) we'll have some money to spend. Barring a major swing elsewhere, which doesn't feel overly likely, I very much doubt we'll be looking at backups and 3rd stringers to fill in starting spots when the dust settles...

It's worth pointing out that the folks making the decision of who to select are also the folks who have firsthand knowledge of how our defensive schemes and playcalling had to (or didn't have to) adjust to accommodate for a deficiency at CB2. Better coverage improves the pass rush; better pass rush improves coverage -- that sort of thing. I guess what I'm saying is just because it's perceived to be a lesser role in the defense, does not mean that it isn't/wasn't an issue, and didn't attribute to other positions where there are also perceived issues... It's also not factoring in free agency (more decisions the same people get to make!!!) and offhand, it's looking like DL free agency will be more robust than CB...

Everett is the only TE I'd have even a modicum of interest in as a FA. Even then, if he was going to be a consistent weapon in the passing game that would've happened by now...

Kind of the crux of my post, right? What strategy would you take in filling our needs. To me, if you can package 1, 2, and 3 and get Pitts and, say 2 6s back, I think that'd be a massive win. Our personnel dept. has shown an ability to mine gold from a number of different positions (CB, S, OT, specifically) so for me it's "fill in the other gaps in FA, swing for the fences on a true impact guy, and build depth through sleeper picks". To me, the biggest thing holding this whole thing back is another true difference maker -- whether its Pitts, Waddle or a pass rusher they deem is elite (and somehow gettable via trade-up), I think that's a move you have to make.

IF he goes that high, then I agree, we can only afford to swing so big. That said, QBs, LTs and pass rushers always get pushed up the board. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw all go ahead of him, and it's conceivable that Mac Jones, an edge rusher or two, another OT or two, and Waddle or Chase go ahead of him too. Would have to work out right for us, but if he were there at 12 or 13, it'd be worth our 1, 2 and 3, I think.

This is shaping up to be an extremely interesting offseason... On the one hand, we're now one of the best teams in the league, with most of the necessary foundational pieces to truly compete for a title. On the other hand, we have a lot of needs to address, limited cap space, and a back-of-the-round draft slot. I had a longer version of this written out but it became a tl/dr post, so instead of going super deep into my thinking, here's how I'd like us to approach the offseason, philosophy and examples or specifics... Needs (not necessarily in priority order): #2 CB: While a Patrick Peterson would be sweet, McBeane's shown their abilities to evaluate and find underrated CBs. Because of that (even though it's arguably our biggest need), shouldn't be a big "spend" -- I'd look for a younger, mid-tier, high-upside CB that would excel in our zone scheme (Kevin King, Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, just a few examples) Milano replacement: Another spot I think you'll find "value" at -- need a guy who excels in coverage. Thomas Davis is the name that instantly stands out for obvious reasons, but Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mychal Kendricks, Malcolm Smith, and Todd Davis might all fit the bill at a reasonable cost as well. Pass Rush: This to me is our most glaring need, it's also the most difficult to come by. If there's a reasonable option in the draft, I'd be open to it, but usually those guys go top-15. Ryan Kerrigan or Olivier Vernon might offer the best combo of affordability/availability/performance for the value. On the interior, it's looking like Kawaan Short might get released, again, obvious reasons why that might make sense. OL Help: sounds like retaining Mongo is a matter of working out the #, who knows with Williams, and obviously Ford will be back. Barring a surprise cut, I'm not sure this is a position that we'll see a lot of change in (unless Williams bolts). Kelechi Osemele is someone who might be worth looking into, on the older side of things, but he's a road grader when healthy. Safety depth: This is an underrated one for me. Both Poyer and Hyde are getting up there in years and as others have pointed out, both have reasonably large cap hits. Malik Booker is a guy who I would LOVE to see us sign. He'll probably be more expensive than a lesser need like this should afford, due to his top-10 draft pedigree, but if we can get him cheap enough, I think he'd thrive under McDermott. Absent that, there are a number of lesser-rated CBs in the draft that I think would be tremendous safeties (DD Lenoir, Shaun Wade, Olijiah Griffin, to name a few) TE: While this is absolutely not our most pressing need, it's where I'd love to see us swing big. The TE FA sucks and we just saw what having an impact TE can do for your offense. It'd be costly, but I'd love to see us put a package of picks together to go get Kyle Pitts. He's big, so he'd help in the RZ and on short-distance plays, he's fast and agile so he'd help in stretching the field vertically, he's basically a big-bodied WR and TE in one. We saw what this offense can do with one great receiving weapon, imagine adding that element... RB: If we swing big on Pitts, this would either have to be a vet-min guy or later rd draft pick. I'm sure a lot of you like Patterson, but to me, the best RB in this draft, relative to where he'll be drafted is Jermar Jefferson. That said, there's a number of guys who could probably be had in the 5th/6th range that could work (Jefferson, Sermon, Hubbard) Other: Josh Dobbs for backup QB Late rd. draft depth guys -- swing for the fences: Joshua Kaindoah, Jonathan Adams Jr., EDIT: Nico Collins will also be severely under-drafted.

That was several years ago and he clearly had some personal stuff going on. He had a very good year at Miami and is a prototype stud DE. This is all for fun, so of course in real life all of that stuff will be vetted, if there's still red flags then of course you pass on him, but in real life (as long as those things check out) he's very likely a top-20 pick.

I did a LOT of trades (because where's the fun otherwise???) but this is my favorite result so far (most of these values are ludicrous but it's fun to dream!): 50: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami 71: Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami 98: Tyler Shelvin, NT, LSU 111: Nico Collins, WR, Michigan 116. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M 117. Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford 136. Ben Cleveland, OG, Georgia 137. Shaun Wade, CB/S, Ohio State 225. Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State Also added Tennessee's 2022 2nd rd. pick and LAR's 5th.

It's fine to say that a lot of QBs are overpaid, I don't think anyone will disagree with you. And yes, in a vacuum, if teams were tighter on their spending to that position, the market would, in theory, go down. What you're not accounting for is the scarcity of talent at the position. MOST even viable QBs are drafted out of the first round, usually in the top 10 picks, or so. So what you're not accounting for is using premium draft capital every couple years to make sure you've got a suitable replacement. And that's assuming you're even able to get high enough in the draft to get a guy you want. Then there's the development and progression -- not every QB pans out, so you're looking at some amount of loss with regard to those premium draft picks. On top of that, you have to account for the chemistry between QB and OL, QB and WR, QB and HC/OC -- QBs are absolutely vital to success in football, it's why they're paid what they're paid. To me, if your strategy were to be the old LA Clippers of the NFL, focused only on revenue, your solution would probably work okay. But if you're trying to win championships, I just don't see it being a viable strategy long-term.

They don't *pay* the reporter to share fake news. The reporter *knows* that by playing this game, they're earning real scoops later. The reporter, being not an idiot, then goes off and phrases their scoop in such a way that it starts the conversation without overguaranteeing anything or connecting too many dots. This 100% happens, I've been told as much by one of sports' most well-known reporters, personally.

Justice Hill would be an intriguing buy-VERY-low candidate...

For a guy with his injury history it would have to depend on the cost, BUT, one thing I haven't seen get a lot of attention re. Ingram is what he allows our defense to do... While helpful for casual fans to get a general understanding of personnel groupings, positional groupings, general and foundational playcalling and strategy, etc., modern NFL defenses very rarely fall neatly into "scheme" boxes like 4-3, 3-4, etc. Teams are looking to be as "multiple" as they can be, which is a very football way of saying that they want to have players be able to do a variety of things in different ways/in different areas on the football field to stress the offense, exploit mismatches, keep the offense guessing and provide an amount of durability across a wide spectrum of situations -- Epanesa getting reps at all 4 DL spots is a perfect example of that. To me, that's exactly what bringing in Ingram -- again, at the right price and if healthy -- provides. Not only does he provide depth at arguably every front 7 position, but the guy is a pass-rushing nightmare, especially when you can move him all over the place. I mentioned stressing the offense above. Imagine an OL having to account for Oliver's first step on the inside, Hughes' first step off the edge, and then two extremely versatile guys moving all over the place in Ingram and Epanesa... it's intriguing to think about for sure. Not saying I'd give up a 1 for him, but if the cost was Murphy + a 4 (bringing back their 5 or 6), I think we'd be silly to not consider it. Would be another toy for Lezlie to play with...