WideNine

Apparently Beane was not buying their evaluation of QB's prior to the 2018 draft as PFFs Analysis Team ranking of the 2018 QB draft class went like this: 1. Baker Mayfield 2. Will Grier 3. Mason Rudolph 4. Lamar Jackson 5. Josh Rosen 6. Mike White 7. Jake Browning 8. Luke Falk 9. Auston Allen 10. Jerrett Stidham 11. Daniel Jones 12. Sam Darnold 13. Josh Allen Not that I am saying folks may have a bias, but wouldn't you just look plain silly if the guy you have ranked dead last became good? Not that many NFL teams seemed to be listening to their player evaluations prior to the draft.Though they did get Mayfield right, but heck half our board predicted that and don't claim to be experts with all the secret sauce formulas to back up the educated guesswork needed to predict what QB the Browns would take. Plenty of other metrics have merit and may be leveraged - situational statistics that help teams crunch probabilities for down and distance what a team is most likely to do offensively or defensively. It is the application of those collected metrics that help teams put a thumb on the probability scale and come up with game plans. That is why most teams have an analytics guy and it may be easier to buy the raw data collected by a group like PFF than to create your own. They have data, and they have opinions. I will go out on a limb and say that the Bills and other NFL teams are most likely interested in the data they collect and not so much their opinions, interpretations, and player evaluations.

I would not care if PFF had Allen at the top their QBR - just as meaningless as if they had him dragging the bottom. I just trust my eyes when it comes to whether Allen, a QB that I thought was a very raw but talented prospect needing about 2 years just to get up to speed with more polished draft prospects with some time sitting behind a veteran, is trending in the right direction after being thrown into the fire. That is all I am looking for and it works for me. Just for fun (because it is funny for us anachronistic antagonists of those in love with their arithmetic) just look at the Wikipedia comments about the long and skeptical journey of Total QBR and yes, I know I cherry-picked the funny comments. "Unlike the NFL passer rating, ESPN has not yet been forthcoming on the exact specific formulas and procedures to calculate QBR.[7] The proprietary, complex methodology spans some 10,000 lines of code.[8] In an interview with San Diego's XX Sports Radio, San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers seemed baffled by the ratings, which put him ninth overall in its metrics for the 2010 season, saying "I still don't get it. I think it's more complicated now" "Further criticism of QBR was brought about when, before some tinkering with the equation of QBR, Steelers quarterback Charlie Batch had the greatest individual game ever evaluated by QBR. Batch threw for 186 yards with two interceptions in the game" "Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers." "In a more recent example, a game played on September 24, 2017, Alex Smith of Kansas City Chiefs received an inexplicable QBR of 7.8, half as much as the equally-bad QBR of 16.1 for his counterpart Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers, even though Smith had a higher completion rate (16/21 vs. 20/40), a better average per completion (7.8 yds vs. 5.9), a far superior TD/int ratio (2-0 vs. 0-3), and won the game handily 24-10."

Not convinced, but to each their own. Their opinion is just that, once you get down to the subjective interpretations of things like "accurate pass". It is hard enough to get 3 people watching the same replay in slow motion to agree on what they are seeing. That is where subjective bias comes into play and we know where they and some others stand in regards to Allen. It is not like their opinion really matters, it is our coaches and who they feel gives this team the best chance to win.

If we are just basing grades on feelings would you really take Stafford, or Lamar Jackson, or Dak, or half a dozen other QBs over Mahomes? Seriously?

Yes, but if there is a safety or two over top, and most teams play Allen Cover 1 or 2, then that man coverage big play opportunity is taken away. Unless we want him to throw into that... Brown has been surprisingly good underneath and that is what defenses are giving up and that is what Allen should take. If Daboll decides to lean on the run more (with Singletary if and when he can go again), then safeties will start to cheat up to the box and we may catch some man coverage downfield and I like our odds to beat that. Now Allen has to prove he can connect on those when he has the shot and can step into the throw. As far as PFF goes, a monkey throwing darts at a spreadsheet would provide as much useful analysis. These PFF tools tailor a few metrics to fit their bias. As much as I like Wentz when he has been healthy enough to play he has usually had a pretty solid supporting cast, but has not been healthy to play many games. I am not even sure he has ever gone up against a stat-killing NE defense yet in his career, and he is #2. Not to mention the oft-benched Mariota and Fitzpatrick ranked so high.... Whatever.

Well damn. He has been the most consistent weapon for Allen and frees up the other receivers with the attention he gets. Well, if he can go that limits his routes. Would not wanting him making a lot of cuts. Hope Singletary can go, and I guess Duke is going to get a lot of work. I trust they will have a plan that fits the guys who can suit up and play.

Dunno if there is ever going to be an easy button - it's an evolution thing. Every time we find a product to beat back bacteria they have billions of chances in a colony for a few to develop the mutations needed to render themselves immune to it. The scientific community used to scoff at the concept of positive mutation, but it is witnessed over and over again in the micro verse. Doesn't help when there are so many off-the-shelf antibiotic hand soaps and cleaners that basically fast paced that evolution to create strains resistant to a broad spectrum of antibiotic chemicals used to sanitize hospital rooms and equipment and led to fun things like MRSA. MRSA bacteria can invade facilities like hospitals as well as sports and training areas and is pretty hard to eradicate. The Cleveland Browns facilities had a reputation as a MRSA hot zone and had several players complaining that their facilities were rife with MRSA, and there are or were some NFL lawsuits for players who careers ended early do to MRSA-related infections. Similar to resistant strains of bacteria - wide use of anti-fungal sprays on crops seems to be genetically traced to a virulent form of fungal infection candida auris that is resistant to most of the anti-fungal treatments our medical community had for such emergencies because anti-fungal medicines leveraged similar biochemical pathways as the sprays used on the crops. Candida Auris is a bit of a CDC bogey man because like MRSA it seems nearly impossible to remove from a facility once it is found to be present, and it has a relatively high mortality rate for several strains. There have been reports of doctors and nurses refusing to go into hospital rooms to treat or care for patients with such an infection. Honestly I would be a bit freaked out myself as someone in that healthcare industry. I almost feel like we would be better served going back to the old days of medical house calls where doctors visit folks in their home vs. treating folks in hospitals because hospitals and clinics are a perfect storm for creating hot zones of resistant bugs. And no, I am not a germ-freak, just found that I liked to read about bio-medical challenges and advances.

I would love to see it, but NE just does not make that many mistakes, and Darth Hoodie can throw a lot at rookie QBs that is hard to process. Still, any given Sunday

https://www.lifewire.com/avoid-drunk-emails-social-media-1616668 There's an app for this.

He was not too shabby. Saw him get bull rushed once, where he let the DT get into his pads. It is good to have that depth.

The only thing Mahomes and Mayfield have in common is that their last names start with "M" Not quite ready to write off KC after a few bad games. A lot of football left to play.

He will like playing for Wade, and Wade will get the most out of him.

In other words no snitches. "The first rule of Kraft club is we don't talk about Kraft club."

Fair enough assessment. I am hoping he tames that hero-ball stubbornness that crops up. You can tell there are times he is chaffing under the tight reigns that Daboll has on him. But they are necessary restrictions at this stage in his development. Even the underneath throws that dominate his game I feel are necessary by design with all the cover1 and 2 teams have used this year to discourage the deeper routes. I think it is in him to improve in this area, but I expect that Maverick aspect of his game to be a struggle for him till he has a few more years of on the job learning and a few melt downs under his belt.

That and they are Year 1 metrics. A year Allen was not even supposed to see time behind center, did not practice with the ones in training camp, and was thrust into service as an emergency option vs plan. A partial year as he was knocked out of the lineup with an injury.

I am sure it has been done before but that sweep that used our TE Knox was a twist I cannot recall seeing before personnel-wise. Knox is a big boy coming around the corner and is a mismatch for most DBs coming up to make the stop. He does get creative with the personnel he uses in roles. Works more often than not.

Nor the other 99% not named Mahomes. He's got skills, but even the best have tendencies that over time defenses can exploit.

Amazing defense the Pats have...especially when you can do that to receivers.

He's been injured a few times, but the kid is solid. If he can stay healthy he has all this intangibles you look for. I think he is a decent QB. For our part when we played the Jets I was more concerned with Bell tearing us up. The Jets are not a bad team talent-wise when everyone is healthy, just no depth.

Less to do with talent I think and more to do with instant gratification approach to thinking college QBs are a finished product and bandaid for teams with existing systemic org failure. Most QBs need good NFL coaching and time to develop and adapt to NFL speed and complex defenses. That happens best in stable franchises with solid supporting casts. Credit Allen for surviving last year because throwing him behind that line, with that supporting cast was not the recipe for developing a QB. I have seen far too many good college QBs destroyed behind porous o-lines playing for franchises that are in constant upheaval. Keep a steady course, be patient, provide a solid supporting cast, and we have a better chance at developing a longer term solution at QB than if we continually cycle thru prospects hoping to luck upon an NFL-ready QB.

Belichick lowers the melting point for a lot of QBs and Allen is just going to have a short memory and know that at least twice a year he is going up against that team. The Bills also have to figure out a better way to help Allen change his approach to those games so he truly understands that he is not shouldering the load in those games. I don't think they are asking him too, but I do think Daboll could game plan a bit better early to set the tone for Allen to settle him a bit. Just conjecture, but I feel like Allen approaches those games like it is on him alone to beat them and I think he is keenly aware of how much this fan base wants to win against that team and he takes on and internalizes too much of that pressure. He just needs to do his 1/11th as McDermott is fond of preaching and lean on his team mates and trust them, and play smart football which will involve throwing more balls away or occasionally wrapping the ball up and eating a sack.

Thanks for the correction - don't mind at all. But yeah, I was thinking about how his numbers would look without that melt down.

Let's put "alarmingly" high into perspective shall we. Baker leads the league with 8 Allen is tied at 7 with Goff and Matt Ryan. 4 of those came all at once against the #1 pass defense in the league NE. Dak and Daniel Jones have 6 each.

Their run towards greatness is chuck filled with asterisks...from the playoffs against the Raiders when Brady's fumble morphed into an indefensible tuck rule, to spygate, to deflate gate... And the thing that makes me the most irritated with them is if they played just clean with no help and no cheating they are a well-coached team that is tough to beat. The last game felt pretty even flag wise, and I was thinking maybe, just maybe things have changed. Then Brady directly behind his center 4 yards from his own goal line is a second from being planted and he intentionally grounds the football into the turf 5 yards in front of him, inside the Tackle "box" with no receiving option near the ball. Textbook intentional grounding loss of down and I believe the Bills get the ball from the spot of the pass. That is a go-ahead TD for this Bills squad yet the refs swallowed the whistles....again. The Pats are allowed to punt themselves out of danger. It is not the number of penalties, it is key penalties at key times that are called or ignored that keep NE in the game till they can legitimately put it away. https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-video-rulebook/intentional-grounding/