DCOrange

It's to the point now that if they draft well, they're going to end up running out of cap space when it comes time to sign all these guys to new contracts haha. IF they do trade down from 1 or 4, I expect that they'll trade up multiple other times throughout the draft to consolidate picks a little bit and make sure they get all the guys they really want.

For those with insider access, here's a link: http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22455315/mel-kiper-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-top-25-prospects-ranking-position-position-top-10s Top 10 QBs (top 4 are all in his top 10 overall big board): 1. Josh Allen 2. Sam Darnold 3. Josh Rosen 4. Baker Mayfield 5. Lamar Jackson 6. Mason Rudolph 7. Kyle Lauletta 8. Luke Falk 9. Mike White 10. Chase Litton

Target Depths for respective Bills WRs: Zay: 13.8 yards Benjamin: 11.9 yards Matthews: 6.8 yards Deonte: 15.4 yards Some other guys roughly around the same average target depth as Zay are: AJ Green Tyrell Williams Torrey Smith Deandre Hopkins Mike Wallace I don't have the average target depth for Zay at ECU, but over 64% of his routes were flats, screens, drags, and slants, which are all less than 5 yards, so his average target depth was probably very low in college.

It's really not. He was objectively awful last season. That doesn't mean he can't improve though. Considering the Bills used him in all the situations that he struggled with in college plus the apparent shoulder injury, there's certainly reason to believe he can improve a substantial amount.

What exactly is your basis for this? His QB rankings over the years basically look the way the draft actually played out: 2017: Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb - He had Watson higher than he ended up going and currently looks smart for it 2016: Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook, Hackenburg - He missed on Dak like everybody else and seems to be correct about Wentz > Goff right now 2015: Mariota, Jameis, Petty, Hundley, Mannion - After the top 2, this class was horrible. Mariota has arguably been better than Jameis so far. 2014: Manziel, Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, tie between Bridgewater and Mettenberger - Obviously Manziel was a bust, hard to say what could have been if not for his off-field issues. Obviously right now you'd take Garoppolo and Carr over Bortles, but these rankings are more or less in line with how everyone else felt that year, with the exception that he was higher on Carr and Garoppolo than most. 2013: Doesn't really matter; that whole class was awful. 2012: Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Cousins - He didn't have Russell Wilson in here but nobody really did. I think these rankings pretty much mirror how everyone else felt at the time. Couldn't find 2011 or 2010, but 2009: Sanchez, Stafford, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee - This was basically a 1 QB draft and he screwed up by having Sanchez over Stafford. I don't know; I don't look at those rankings and think "man this dude sucks at evaluating QBs".

A major issue is that Zay made his living at ECU essentially on screens, digs, and quick slants; basically anything underneath. In Buffalo, he was used as the team's deep threat, which he has always struggled with dating back to ECU. It's no wonder that he struggled as a rookie; Buffalo played him to his weaknesses instead of using his strengths. This line from that PFF article is pretty incredible though:

That's true, but he was still plagued by having an awful supporting cast. For example, 38.0% of Allen's passes came while under pressure this year. The average of the rest of the draft class was 24.3%. The next closest to Allen was Lamar at just over 31%. Considering the impact that being under pressure has on completion percentage, that alone is a huge reason that Allen's completion % suffered so much. Having said that though, even his completion % on non-pressured passes was the lowest of the group.

As long as it's a contract that you can easily get out of, I don't really see why you wouldn't pursue him. I'm not a big fan of his, but if you give him a contract like Mike Glennon got, that's a great move IMO.

I understand the McD-Panthers connection, but Star simply hasn't been a good player the last 2 or 3 years. Sheldon is a very good player. I'll be pretty disappointed if Buffalo gives Star a lot of money.

Interesting stat for sure, but I don't really know what to make of it. Using percentage for air yards seems weird to me. You could argue a high percentage = your ball placement isn't good, resulting in a lack of YAC and also argue that a low percentage = you rely on YAC and can't push the ball down the field. I don't know why someone would choose to use the percentage instead of just average air yards per attempt or something. Well, sure, obviously potential is a major factor when it comes to drafting your future players. Having a ton of potential should absolutely boost a player's draft stock.

It seems like Rashad Penny is getting a lot of sleeper hype, but something about him just seems off to me. He seems kinda stiff when he runs or something. I just have a bad feeling he isn't going to be more than a "he'll get whatever yards the line blocks for him" type of guy. If we're talking Day 3 guys, I already mentioned Martez Carter and Nyheim Hines, but Mark Walton is another guy I like. Outside of Saquon, he's easily my favorite RB in this class

As far as the later round RBs go, I like Josh Adams and Martez Carter personally. I think Nyheim Hines would make sense too.

I agree with that for the most part, but this same thing has been reported by much more than just one source at this point.

Darnold has everything McBeane supposedly looks for with the exception of that line about a dummied down system/not calling audibles and stuff. System wise Darnold, Mayfield, and Rudolph don’t really fit what that excerpt was describing. Based on the OP, I would guess that Josh Allen is the guy they covet. Idk if Beane has said more on the subject though. I’d also like to think he wouldn’t tip his hand in a radio interview like that though so maybe this is all a moot point.

Does he? I know Reddit's NFL Draft sub-reddit has banned CBS links because of the fact that Trapasso is the lead guy there now lol I know we like Trapasso since he came from Buffalo Rumblings but I don't think he's respected nearly as much outside of Bills fans.

On social media, there's a running joke that Matt Miller has a gigantic hard-on for Josh Allen when in reality, of the main draft pundits, he might be the lowest on him at this point lol.

1. If that were the case and his completion percentage were only low because he were throwing deep more often, that's something that absolutely should be noted when looking at him. A short throw is obviously far easier to complete than a deep throw, so QBs that are dumping it off all the time will naturally have inflated completion percentages. 2. That's not what's going on here though. The numbers in that chart are adjusted for WRs dropping easy passes, throwaways, spikes, and passes batted at the line (the passes batted should be taken note of too, but eliminating those passes was part of ProFootballFocus's attempt to create a more accurate "accuracy" metric since there's no way to tell if those passes would have been on target if not for getting deflected at the line). When adjusting for that, Lamar's completion percentage on all attempts (including the short stuff where Darnold relatively excels) is higher than Darnold. The obvious limitation here is that you can't tell how well-placed the throw was, only that these passes were "catchable", but that same limitation exists in the regular completion percentage number that you were citing as a reason not to consider him. One of the analysts at NDT Scouting (and I believe a writer for the Eagles SBNation blog) is currently working on a breakdown that will specifically look at the numbers behind well-placed balls. He put together a report for all of the Senior Bowl QBs already and it's pretty freaking cool. If you're interested in that report, you can find the link here: https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/ I put together a table comparing the different QBs from that report too, but obviously Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar were not in the Senior Bowl so they aren't included yet. Yeah. My belief is that you definitely want to be watching the film to be able to see with your own eyes how the QB is performing, but having numbers such as the ones I've posted can help get an idea of how it all breaks down mathematically. Obviously if you watch Rosen throw the ball over 450 times like he did this year, you're going to see a ton of both good and bad throws. The numbers help provide a counter-balance so that your mind doesn't just focus on the good or the bad and accidentally let that skew your opinion too much. The numbers can't capture everything though, and probably the biggest part of quarterbacking: the mental makeup, is something that basically none of us will have the ability to REALLY figure out, at least not as well as the teams can since they get to actually sit down with these guys later in the draft process.

There's definitely context that simply looking at the numbers can't adjust for. The second half rally indeed made Lamar look much better statistically than he really was in that game, but that happens with everyone from time to time. Hell, look at Josh Rosen's ridiculous stats in the epic comeback win against Texas A&M. Without proper context, it looks like an absolutely incredible game. But if you watch the film, you'll see that he gave A&M 2 or 3 easy turnovers that went right through their hands, and in one case, turned into a huge TD for UCLA. Rosen played like crap in the first half of that game and then played pretty poorly in the 2nd half, but due to A&M continuously shooting themselves in the foot, they let UCLA come back and win the game and part of Rosen's legend was built on that performance.

Here's the same charts with Falk and Mike White added: And here's the same chart with Mayfield and Allen removed (just because they're such big outliers that it makes everyone else look average)

And this seems like a good place to post a link to this thread from earlier in the week.

Not that completion percentage completely translates to accuracy, but this seems like a good place to post this:

The ones that have gone public do at least. People in NFL circles have heard that's not really the case though. Edit: Supposedly.

As someone that watches almost every Tampa Bay Buccaneers game (including Glennon's start against them this year), the dude is simply not a good QB. If you want him as a backup QB, fine, but he is in no way shape or form an upgrade over Tyrod. He's a substantial downgrade.

Yes you can. Does Chris Hogan ring a bell?

Obviously the injury history is the risk involved. Signing Bradford and carrying him as the only other QB on the roster means you have to be either: 1. Comfortable with Bradford's current health and think the past injuries were flukes 2. Comfortable with your rookie potentially being thrown to the wolves at any moment The injury history is the only reason Bradford won't be getting $20 million per year though. Outside of Cousins, he's probably the only immediate upgrade over Tyrod that will be available this offseason (while he's healthy that is). Edit: If the Bills are comfortable with being a bad team in 2019, I wouldn't bother with Bradford. And if the Bills know they don't want their rookie to play for a year, I wouldn't bother with him. But if Bradford is coming for $5-10 million, I'd much rather have him than a guy like Derek Anderson or Peterman or something that you know will be bad. At that point, I think the price is worth the potential reward. Maybe Buffalo doesn't care about competing next season and they simply want someone that can take the hits while they develop their rookie; I don't know. But like I said, Bradford is one of the very few options that would legitimately improve the Bills in the short-term.