DCOrange

I understand the McD-Panthers connection, but Star simply hasn't been a good player the last 2 or 3 years. Sheldon is a very good player. I'll be pretty disappointed if Buffalo gives Star a lot of money.

Interesting stat for sure, but I don't really know what to make of it. Using percentage for air yards seems weird to me. You could argue a high percentage = your ball placement isn't good, resulting in a lack of YAC and also argue that a low percentage = you rely on YAC and can't push the ball down the field. I don't know why someone would choose to use the percentage instead of just average air yards per attempt or something. Well, sure, obviously potential is a major factor when it comes to drafting your future players. Having a ton of potential should absolutely boost a player's draft stock.

It seems like Rashad Penny is getting a lot of sleeper hype, but something about him just seems off to me. He seems kinda stiff when he runs or something. I just have a bad feeling he isn't going to be more than a "he'll get whatever yards the line blocks for him" type of guy. If we're talking Day 3 guys, I already mentioned Martez Carter and Nyheim Hines, but Mark Walton is another guy I like. Outside of Saquon, he's easily my favorite RB in this class

As far as the later round RBs go, I like Josh Adams and Martez Carter personally. I think Nyheim Hines would make sense too.

I agree with that for the most part, but this same thing has been reported by much more than just one source at this point.

Darnold has everything McBeane supposedly looks for with the exception of that line about a dummied down system/not calling audibles and stuff. System wise Darnold, Mayfield, and Rudolph don’t really fit what that excerpt was describing. Based on the OP, I would guess that Josh Allen is the guy they covet. Idk if Beane has said more on the subject though. I’d also like to think he wouldn’t tip his hand in a radio interview like that though so maybe this is all a moot point.

Does he? I know Reddit's NFL Draft sub-reddit has banned CBS links because of the fact that Trapasso is the lead guy there now lol I know we like Trapasso since he came from Buffalo Rumblings but I don't think he's respected nearly as much outside of Bills fans.

On social media, there's a running joke that Matt Miller has a gigantic hard-on for Josh Allen when in reality, of the main draft pundits, he might be the lowest on him at this point lol.

1. If that were the case and his completion percentage were only low because he were throwing deep more often, that's something that absolutely should be noted when looking at him. A short throw is obviously far easier to complete than a deep throw, so QBs that are dumping it off all the time will naturally have inflated completion percentages. 2. That's not what's going on here though. The numbers in that chart are adjusted for WRs dropping easy passes, throwaways, spikes, and passes batted at the line (the passes batted should be taken note of too, but eliminating those passes was part of ProFootballFocus's attempt to create a more accurate "accuracy" metric since there's no way to tell if those passes would have been on target if not for getting deflected at the line). When adjusting for that, Lamar's completion percentage on all attempts (including the short stuff where Darnold relatively excels) is higher than Darnold. The obvious limitation here is that you can't tell how well-placed the throw was, only that these passes were "catchable", but that same limitation exists in the regular completion percentage number that you were citing as a reason not to consider him. One of the analysts at NDT Scouting (and I believe a writer for the Eagles SBNation blog) is currently working on a breakdown that will specifically look at the numbers behind well-placed balls. He put together a report for all of the Senior Bowl QBs already and it's pretty freaking cool. If you're interested in that report, you can find the link here: https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/ I put together a table comparing the different QBs from that report too, but obviously Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar were not in the Senior Bowl so they aren't included yet. Yeah. My belief is that you definitely want to be watching the film to be able to see with your own eyes how the QB is performing, but having numbers such as the ones I've posted can help get an idea of how it all breaks down mathematically. Obviously if you watch Rosen throw the ball over 450 times like he did this year, you're going to see a ton of both good and bad throws. The numbers help provide a counter-balance so that your mind doesn't just focus on the good or the bad and accidentally let that skew your opinion too much. The numbers can't capture everything though, and probably the biggest part of quarterbacking: the mental makeup, is something that basically none of us will have the ability to REALLY figure out, at least not as well as the teams can since they get to actually sit down with these guys later in the draft process.

There's definitely context that simply looking at the numbers can't adjust for. The second half rally indeed made Lamar look much better statistically than he really was in that game, but that happens with everyone from time to time. Hell, look at Josh Rosen's ridiculous stats in the epic comeback win against Texas A&M. Without proper context, it looks like an absolutely incredible game. But if you watch the film, you'll see that he gave A&M 2 or 3 easy turnovers that went right through their hands, and in one case, turned into a huge TD for UCLA. Rosen played like crap in the first half of that game and then played pretty poorly in the 2nd half, but due to A&M continuously shooting themselves in the foot, they let UCLA come back and win the game and part of Rosen's legend was built on that performance.

Here's the same charts with Falk and Mike White added: And here's the same chart with Mayfield and Allen removed (just because they're such big outliers that it makes everyone else look average)

And this seems like a good place to post a link to this thread from earlier in the week.

Not that completion percentage completely translates to accuracy, but this seems like a good place to post this:

The ones that have gone public do at least. People in NFL circles have heard that's not really the case though. Edit: Supposedly.

As someone that watches almost every Tampa Bay Buccaneers game (including Glennon's start against them this year), the dude is simply not a good QB. If you want him as a backup QB, fine, but he is in no way shape or form an upgrade over Tyrod. He's a substantial downgrade.

Yes you can. Does Chris Hogan ring a bell?

Obviously the injury history is the risk involved. Signing Bradford and carrying him as the only other QB on the roster means you have to be either: 1. Comfortable with Bradford's current health and think the past injuries were flukes 2. Comfortable with your rookie potentially being thrown to the wolves at any moment The injury history is the only reason Bradford won't be getting $20 million per year though. Outside of Cousins, he's probably the only immediate upgrade over Tyrod that will be available this offseason (while he's healthy that is). Edit: If the Bills are comfortable with being a bad team in 2019, I wouldn't bother with Bradford. And if the Bills know they don't want their rookie to play for a year, I wouldn't bother with him. But if Bradford is coming for $5-10 million, I'd much rather have him than a guy like Derek Anderson or Peterman or something that you know will be bad. At that point, I think the price is worth the potential reward. Maybe Buffalo doesn't care about competing next season and they simply want someone that can take the hits while they develop their rookie; I don't know. But like I said, Bradford is one of the very few options that would legitimately improve the Bills in the short-term.

I'm really curious to see what ends up happening with Lamar. If a team wants to overhaul his footwork, he'll certainly need a year (or at least like half a season) to create new muscle memory. But I've seen articles suggest that Petrino specifically taught Lamar the footwork he uses now to help maximize his accuracy with his flick of the wrist throwing motion, and if a team buys into that line of thinking, I think he might be the most NFL-ready honestly. His running ability will take a lot of pressure off transitioning his passing game and he's already familiar with pro-style passing concepts. I believe it was Matt Miller a few days ago that basically alluded to this, saying that Lamar could probably have the greatest impact at the start of the season of any of this year's QBs.

He's a good QB. He's just had a horrible injury history. If the injuries drive his price down a lot, he makes a lot of sense as a guy that can start while you develop your rookie. If that rookie is Rosen, I don't really see the point though; Rosen should be ready to start immediately.

I think Cleveland is a very sensible landing spot for him, especially if they're as enamored with Josh Allen as some recent reports have indicated. Cleveland is trying to fight off the reputation that they're a complete joke...improving from having the most turnovers in the NFL to possibly the fewest would be a gigantic step in the right direction for them while they develop a young QB and Tyrod is on an expiring contract so it works out pretty perfectly for them.

This is 100% true about Mayfield; not so sure that's the case with Rosen though. He certainly doesn't look bad in terms of the metrics, but he's basically in the same neighborhood as the non-Mayfield and non-Josh Allen (in a bad way) prospects. See this Fanpost I threw together at BuffaloRumblings: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/12/14/16776108/more-ncaa-qb-charts If you look at the rating numbers, Lamar and Rudolph look better than Rosen. The adjusted completion percentage metrics are where Rosen shines more. But nobody is remotely close to Mayfield.

You and I disagree regarding his arm strength/his game in general, but yeah...I don't know how anybody can question his productivity. Outside of Mayfield and maybe Lamar, I'm not sure there was a more productive QB in the country. He was an incredible college player.

I don't mean to come across like I hate the guy. I'd be happy to have him; he just isn't my preferred choice. Also regarding the analytics, while they aren't good against top & mid-tier teams, at least part of that is also due to him being on an inferior team. Outside of Lamar and Mayfield, I believe Rosen was impacted by drops more than anyone else (roughly twice as much as Darnold and Josh Allen were). For all we know, his numbers would look drastically different in those games if his WRs could catch the ball. That was the one big thing I wish I could have factored in to my analysis that I posted the other day; I have the total drops from PFF but I can't see it broken down on a game-by-game basis. On the flipside, the numbers aren't always indicative of how well they actually played. Like that epic comeback against Texas A&M...Rosen finished with 491 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and 2 fumbles, but those numbers don't show the fact that he threw at least two passes that were incredibly easy interceptions that A&M's defenders just couldn't hold on to; one of which went right through the guy's hands and ended up being a TD for Rosen. Edit: More than just being happy to have Rosen, I'd be perfectly fine with them trading up to #2 to get him (if the deal is similar to what Galko is proposing). Like I said, I think he's a good prospect; he just isn't my preferred choice.

Darnold, Mayfield, Allen, and Lamar. I still think Rosen is a 1st round prospect, but I don't like Rosen's combination of injury history, slight build, and lack of mobility. It would scare me to have a guy with a long history of injuries who is also a sitting duck in the pocket and also struggles with decision making under pressure. And I don't think he's as good a passer as his outstanding mechanics would suggest. He struggled with accuracy up until this season, and even this season, he struggled outside of playing against cupcake defenses. He only played one top 30 defense this year and in that game, he was atrocious. And against the mid-tier defenses (ranked 31-75th), he had 7 TDs to 7 potential turnovers (including total fumbles).

Rosen isn't my preferred choice; he's actually my #5 QB in the class. But I can get on board with it if they pull off something like this, especially if the 2019 pick included isn't a 1st rounder. He doesn't really seem like the type that McBeane would be looking for though IMO.