DCOrange

The draft order is determined by optimal points or whatever it's called (meaning if Mahomes is on the bench and outscores Zach Wilson, it's Mahomes' score that factors into the draft order). I just mean they were trading basically any of their players that had a pulse for draft picks to make sure their talent level was low/they had a lot of picks to work with in the rookie draft. We're playing on League Tycoon where you have a limited amount of multi-year contracts to give out on top of the salary cap and stuff and also have a practice squad for rookie draft picks where they don't count as much against the cap. So for example, the guys I have long-term right now are: Kyler Murray - 2 more seasons at $10 and $12 Keenan Allen - 2 more seasons at $13 and $15 Chris Olave - 2 more seasons at $29 and $34 Kirk Cousins - 1 more season at $19 George Pickens - 2 more seasons at $7 and $9 Tyler Lockett - 1 more season at $7 Drake London - 3 more seasons at $11, $13, and $15 And I have $104 to spend in our draft And guys that were only on 1 year deals: David Montgomery (unfortunately the guy that originally got him gave him a 1 year deal but it was a gigantic bargain) Tony Pollard Patrick Mahomes James Conner Deebo Samuel Aaron Jones and a few other less notable guys The guy that ended up with the first pick in the rookie draft has Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Garrett Wilson, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson, Marvin Mims, Sky Moore, and $49 in cap space for the draft (and his rookie picks alone will cost $30 if they all go on his active roster, so needless to say, he's going to have some serious maneuvering to do). Another guy has Trevor Lawrence, Jamarr Chase, Davante Adams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Austin Ekeler, and Zach Charbonnet but he can't bid more than $1 for anyone in the auction this offseason lol.

Sounds like the conversation around Bell is more whether or not Autry views him as a culture fit. I really hope we can keep this group together; our talent level isn't high enough to be letting talented kids leave. It would be so big for us to be able to keep our guys here and continue adding on to them for once.

My friends and I started our own dynasty league this past season. Everyone thought I was going to waltz to the championship after our inaugural draft and I ended up not even making the playoffs so that was a tough pill to swallow lol. Think I was #2 in the league in points by a wide margin but that was mostly because I was doubling everyone's scores the first 5 weeks or so before it all came crashing down. A few teams tanked to embarrassing degrees to try to secure the top picks in the draft. I'm excited to see how the first offseason plays out.

Hard to take anything to the bank anymore long-term with the transfer portal and NIL being what it is. I've already heard buzz that Judah is likely gone; if not to the NBA then to Georgetown. Been some buzz that Maliq and Bell will be hard to keep too. Hopefully the rumors end up not being true so we can basically run it back with this group plus Donnie and get back into the NCAA Tournament but we'll see. Losing either Maliq or Judah would be pretty catastrophic for our hopes IMO. I would say at least for now, the Maliq/Bell stuff is just a little murmur; nothing concrete. I'm sure Judah will try to go to the NBA Draft again this offseason...hopefully he returns if he doesn't get good news there like he did last year. I know Georgetown is pretty confident they're getting him though.

Metrics that I factored in include: Age, % of pass plays they were targeted, yards per route run, % of targets categorized as open, catch % when open, avoided tackles rate and PFF grade, and I was particularly focused on their success rates against man coverage. With the 4 WRs you mentioned specifically: Thomas would have been an Early or Mid 3rd if we just looked at 2023's stats (weighed down by his low target %), but his numbers from 2022 brought him down another round. Coleman's relatively low score basically boiled down to low YPRR and low % of targets as open. Beyond those two areas, he wasn't good enough to earn positive points but wasn't bad enough to earn negative points either. Mitchell was mostly bad across the board. He wasn't targeted nearly as much as most of the class, YPRR was very low, and his numbers against man coverage were dreadful. Polk is really due to 2022 being horrific. Based solely on 2023, he would have come out to be a late 3rd rounder on the metrics, but he was nearly the lowest rated WR in the sample in 2022. The only WRs that were worse were Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Robert Lewis (small school kid from Georgia State).

I haven't studied him on film but he was dead last of the 43 WRs I looked at on the metrics.

Just for fun, I decided to score WR prospects on some of the metrics that I find to be important and create a prospect score that I then translated to a projected draft range. I took both 2022 and 2023 into account for these scores but weighted it more off of 2023 (with the exception of one player who missed almost the entire season). Then I took the draft grades that I have from watching film and decided to combine them into one all-inclusive draft grade (slightly favoring film over metrics). The prospects that I've watched film on graded out this way (combined grade first, then film, then metrics): Player Combined Film Metrics Malik Nabers Early 1st Early 1st Early 1st Marvin Harrison Jr. Early 1st Early 1st Mid 1st Troy Franklin Mid 1st Late 1st Mid 1st Rome Odunze Mid 1st Early 1st Mid 2nd Ladd McConkey Early 2nd Early 2nd Early 2nd Brian Thomas Jr. Mid 2nd Mid 1st Mid 4th Keon Coleman Late 2nd Late 1st Late 4th Malachi Corley Late 2nd Late 3rd Early 1st Ricky Pearsall Early 3rd Early 2nd Late 4th Roman Wilson Early 3rd Mid 2nd Early 4th Brenden Rice Early 3rd Late 2nd Late 4th Ja'Lynn Polk Mid 3rd Mid 2nd Mid 5th Xavier Legette Late 3rd Late 3rd Late 3rd Adonai Mitchell Early 4th Late 2nd Late 6th Jamari Thrash Early 4th Mid 5th Early 2nd Xavier Worthy Early 5th Late 6th Late 2nd Tez Walker Late 5th Mid 5th Early 6th Jalen McMillan Early 6th Late 7th Early 3rd Some major differences between my film vs. metrics as well as some of the players I haven't studied on film that stood out on metrics: Metrics are lower on Odunze than I am and ever so slightly lower on Harrison. Metrics definitely do not like Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman as much as I do. On metrics alone, Malachi Corley was pretty clearly the 2nd best WR in the class after Malik Nabers. Ricky Pearsall ranked 28th out of the 43 WRs I scored, so metrics are a bit lower on him than I was on film. Adonai Mitchell was the 5th worst in the metrics. Ja'Lynn Polk was 33rd out of 43 so he didn't fare well either. Metrics had Jamari Thrash 10th out of 43. I admittedly liked his film at the Senior Bowl but he didn't stand out that much in the actual games I watched. I know he's a favorite of the Cover1 guys too. Metrics liked Xavier Worthy and Jalen McMillan much more than I did. Guys that I haven't scouted that stood out: Malik Washington (3rd highest), Isaiah Williams (6th), Dominic Lovett (7th), Joshua Cephus (8th, small school kid), and Hayden Hatten (11th, another small school kid). Washington and Lovett were almost exclusively used in the slot. Cephus was out wide 38% this year but was very low the year prior and Hatten was 68% this year. No idea if this sort of combined ranking will fare better than just pure film or pure metrics, but it was a fun exercise to throw it together.

Among the 84 NFL WRs to receive at least 50 targets this year, the average YPRR was 1.69. Davis was at 1.34, which was 58th among that group. Among the 43 college WRs that I pulled into my Excel chart, the average YPRR was 2.39. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit#gid=1244172747 Should also mention you have to consider context with YPRR. It will heavily favor WRs that are the #1 target on their team (for example, it'll be biased towards a guy like Xavier Legette or Malik Washington for example who were by far the #1 target on their team vs. someone like Brian Thomas or Keon Coleman who played in offenses where the ball was spread out more/they weren't featured as much). On the flipside, if you're playing with a poor passer, your YPRR will suffer since you can't rack up yards if they don't get you the ball, so guys like Tahj Washington (Caleb Williams), Nabers/Thomas (Jayden Daniels), and Tez Walker (Drake Maye) are probably at an advantage from that perspective. If you happen to be a WR that played in more of a balanced passing attack and also didn't have a good QB, you're probably screwed in terms of YPRR. I believe those drop rates are probably for their entire careers so it isn't a perfect match to my table which shows the last two seasons, but feel free to check the link above for drop rates on all of the guys you're asking about.

I like Pearsall more than the consensus; think he ended up as like my WR8 or something after watching pretty much all of the main WRs in the class. I never love taking WRs that are as old as he is, but his film was a lot better than I expected. I think McConkey is more athletic/explosive though, so I disagree there. That's not to say Pearsall is a bad athlete by any means, but I do think it holds him back a little bit. Re: taking a slot WR, it definitely isn't ideal. The X WR is clearly our biggest need, but it may ultimately boil down to how the draft plays out. There's only a handful of X WRs in this class that I really love early in the draft and almost all of them are likely to be off the board by the time it gets to #28. I also think that despite Shakir really coming on down the stretch this season, we could still use someone that's better against man coverage in the slot. Shakir racked up almost all of his production against zone, which is still helpful obviously but if you want guys that can get open quickly against man coverage for Josh, we could use an upgrade in the slot too and this draft is filled with guys that can potentially do that. I wouldn't do it at #28, but it might be a consideration on Day 2.

This is one of the big disconnects between Kiper and some of you guys. Kiper expects McConkey to run in the 4.4's or possibly 4.3's if he has a better than expected day.

I have an early 2nd round grade on him personally so I don't agree with the top 5-10 talk at all. I don't really care about his stats all that much though/within context they're actually quite good. I think the people that are very high on him are really glossing over his complete lack of touch throws though.

Seems like there's a lot of buzz right now that he'll end up going top 15 and could even go top 3 by the time the draft process plays out.

I wouldn't be surprised if Vegas trades up. I definitely think they'll gauge Washington and New England's interest in moving down. Antonio Pierce is the guy that brought Jayden Daniels to Arizona State. But even if that doesn't work out, I could see them moving up for JJ McCarthy.

I don't think Gabe's play itself is inconsistent. I think he gives the same effort basically every play/game. It's more just that almost all of his value in the passing game comes from vertical routes, which are the lowest percentage play in general and also not Allen's strength so there's just going to be a bunch of games where it simply doesn't work and Gabe doesn't really have anything else to fall back on in the passing game.

I'm not really dialed in on the Raiders but my guess would be they'd rather grab a QB in the draft than going from one bridge QB to another in Jimmy to Baker.

Seems like a fairly smart gamble. I’m guessing they want to reserve the tag for Winfield if needed.

I think this has been misattributed from an article that was talking about Georgia WRs. Georgia’s Rivals.com site reported that a different Georgia WR ran a 4.38 but it pops up for Mitchell on Google so sites like Stadium Rant see it and run with it. Mitchell doesn’t look anything like a 4.38 guy IMO and I know most Texas fans are predicting him to run around a 4.50-4.55, which at his height is still totally fine.

To be fair, Franklin is still mostly being mocked in the 2nd round. There's just a lot of us that think he'll move up as the process moves along.

I don't really agree with the Coleman/Gabe comparison personally. I never felt that boxing out and high pointing the ball were strengths of Davis'. He just did a good job attacking the seams in the defense and Allen would lead him away from the coverage. I also don't think pure speed is really necessary to be a field stretcher which is why guys like Coleman and Mitchell are two of the better vertical threats in the draft. Coleman is good at stacking his man and once he's done that, he'll be at a distinct advantage down the field unless you give him safety help. And crucially in comparison to Gabe, he should be much more of a threat in the short/intermediate game as well due to his frame and body control. And while Coleman is not the best route runner, Gabe basically couldn't run routes outside of the vertical stuff; watching him try to run a simple curl route was depressing. At any rate, separation would be preferred but I think we simply need guys that we're confident can win on the outside, particularly while dealing with press coverage, which is why I've landed on Thomas, Franklin, and Coleman as the three that I would target (assuming no massive trade up). Thomas is a master against press coverage and has enough speed to pull away from DBs. I'm confident he'll demand safety help on the outside. Franklin isn't as dominant against press coverage or as dynamic a deep threat, but he has some real shake to his releases/routes that should allow him to get separation on slants, curls, etc. while still being a threat vertically. Coleman doesn't really create separation super well, but there's flashes of it when he's able to lean into the DB with his strength and then make his cut and his ability to box out and high point the ball allows him to separate at the catching point rather than in the route itself. For me, I'd prefer Thomas or Franklin, but Coleman has separated himself as the #3 realistic target at 28. I think if we're purely focused on quick separators against man coverage, you may have to be more open to the idea of getting someone that can win in the slot quicker than Shakir does. That hasn't been Shakir's game to this point in his career and the slot is probably the easiest place to get quick separation against man coverage.

Perhaps Beane will be higher on Legette than everyone else, but I don't think any of the reputable mock draft people have had him in the first round in awhile now. Seems like he's settled in as a mid-2nd/3rd rounder for everyone. Based on the consensus, it feels like Thomas will be off the board, but guys like Coleman, Franklin, Mitchell, etc. are likely to be available. Obviously all subject to change though; once we get to the Combine and draft interviews and stuff, people will start rising and falling a lot I'm sure.

I’m guessing the “reportedly runs a 4.38” comes from this article which pops up on Google if you look up Mitchell’s 40 time. If you click the link though, it’s talking about a different player. https://uga.rivals.com/news/the-daily-recap-adonai-mitchell-is-going-to-be-a-tremendous-player-here- At any rate, we’ll see what he actually runs but I’d bet he’s closer to the 4.5’s than the 4.3’s. Him blowing up at the combine and rising out of our draft range would be fine with me; maybe means a better WR prospect falls to us.

I just don’t view Mitchell as a first rounder. To me he’s a consideration if he makes it to our 2nd round pick or maybe a slight trade up from there.

My guess is McConkey is closer to 4.40 than 4.60. I think he’ll be a good NFL player but not someone for us to take in the first round IMO. To me, I’m trading down or taking a different position if one of Thomas, Franklin, and Coleman are not there. I do tend to think one or two of them will make it to 28 though.

Just focusing on WRs, Bourne is probably the guy I like the most that I'm highly confident will be cheap. Having said that, there are so many free agent WRs and so many high quality WR prospects in the draft, somebody will unexpectedly have a pretty dry market and I'd love to be the team that takes advantage of that. Hollywood is a good potential example of that; if he's cheap, that's an obvious move to make IMO. Likewise if god forbid someone like Ridley ends up needing to settle for a 1 year prove it type deal.

Seems like people expect JJ to go early in the first round at this point. Feels unlikely he would have improved his stock from there by staying longer, especially with his coach making the jump to the NFL. On the flipside, next year's QB class looks weak at the moment so there's a chance he could have been QB1 next year. I know there's been at least one report he's as high as QB2 on some team's big boards this year though.