DCOrange

Davis is mostly PF. Can probably fill in a little at C or SF if needed. He was the starting C for Delaware last year.

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it: Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas) Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall) Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy) His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was. Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

Jyare Davis to Syracuse is official. Gotta think Dakota Leffew will follow soon. In outgoing transfer news, Justin Taylor committed to James Madison and Maliq Brown is visiting (gulp) Duke.

He showed at the Senior Bowl that he has the movement skills to run good routes IMO but in actual games it felt like by far his biggest strength was more just utilizing his speed on crossers, posts, etc.

I like him and I think he has some of the skills and the intangibles that Beane will like. Feels like an exclusive slot guy though which between Shakir, Samuel, and the big slot/TEs, I feel like there isn't much opportunity there.

I don't really buy it personally, particularly with Mitchell because the same effort issues showed up at Georgia. Hard to say for sure with Worthy since he didn't switch schools/staffs. Yes. If I went just off of the metrics that I like to look at, Mitchell would literally be near the bottom of the draft class and one of the lowest rated I've had in the last few years (out of almost 130 WRs). Worthy is near the tail end of the top 1/3 of that group, pretty good but not great. I wouldn't take Mitchell at 28 personally. I could maybe get on board with trading up in the 2nd round for him, but in all likelihood, there will be WRs available at #60 that I will have a higher/equal grade on than Mitchell. I'm not sure there's realistically a WR I would opt for at #28 (assuming Brian Thomas doesn't slide that far). After the big 3 + Thomas, I have late 1st or early 2nd round grades on the following: Coleman, Franklin, Jacob Cowing, McConkey, Javon Baker, and Pearsall. Considering they're all early 2nd round or better, I wouldn't really be mad if Buffalo took one of them at 28 but my guess is there will be better value available at other positions there. Cowing is basically a guarantee to be available at #60 as I don't think anyone is really as high on him as I am (he's also almost certainly slot-exclusive which probably means he isn't a fit for us) and Baker seems extremely likely to be available at #60/could be a trade up into the 3rd round candidate.

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet. Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot. Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though. Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

Some of it can pretty innocently be explained away: He blew up early in his high school career and decided to capitalize on that by transferring to one of the powerhouse prep schools (IMG Academy). Got homesick and decided to go back to Atlanta but I believe Georgia has rules against people transferring from out-of-state, so despite growing up in Atlanta, he was ruled ineligible and had to move elsewhere again to continue playing football, so he ended up in California. Some of it, not so easy to explain away; it sounds like none of the coaching staffs that he played for in college liked him. Also not included in the 6 schools in 8 years thing is that he originally committed to Miami, changed his commitment to LSU, and then flipped one more time on Signing Day to Georgia. So he never technically went to Miami or LSU, but he's really had a hard time making a decision and sticking with it. In Matt Harmon's scouting, he has Pearsall's success rate against press coverage at 67.7% (51st percentile) vs. McConkey at 44.4% (8th percentile).

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those. Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well. Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them). Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class. Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class. For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.

I don’t think he’s scouted Franklin yet. The 10 I listed are the only 10 he’s published so far.

I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear. I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags: Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest. Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw. Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized. Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can. Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential. I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play. I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.

Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far: MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2 Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/

Wake entered the NFL draft (or at least signed with an NFL team) before ending up in the CFL, so no need to enter the draft again. Stiggers never went through the draft process and I believe is one year away from being able to enter the league as a free agent. Not 100% positive on that though.

Would be very surprised if he isn’t our starting PG for better or worse.

It's the QBs to me. After Caleb and Maye, I wouldn't touch any of them in the first round. I could maybe understand McCarthy but I wouldn't want to be the team taking him in the first personally. Daniels, Nix, Penix...I don't see it with them.

Perhaps so. I won't pretend I have those sorts of connections; I can only go off the film and metrics. Based on those two things, I would say he's a 2nd rounder. If teams just don't think he'll be able to develop then I get passing on him.

Almost certainly will have to play in the slot.

Working off of this consensus big board: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024 I would go with Javon Baker and Jacob Cowing at WR. Both are top 10 WRs in this class IMO. The consensus big board still has Drake Maye as the #2 prospect in the class, but it feels like a lot of the people in the mainstream media are pushing him down their boards and I think that's a major mistake.

I think I have a strong idea who our PG will be lol. I’m a bit skeptical but hope Leffew is up to the task.

Some notes that I haven't seen mentioned much elsewhere: MHJ: "As talented as he is, his discipline and dedication to his craft might be the most impressive part of him" - NFL scout. Tendency to coast when he isn't the target of the play, poor effort as a blocker, not really a YAC weapon. Turned down NIL deals at first because he believed they'd be a distraction. Nabers: Body catches more than you'd like but has shown the ability to extend and catch the ball with his hands. Was arrested on Bourbon St. for illegally carrying a weapon. Was ruled ineligible his senior year of high school because his family happened to move to the same school district as his former coach and there was a rule against that; still made the All-American team despite not playing lol. Credits his time growing up as a center fielder for his ability to track the deep ball. Odunze: His weaknesses section is hilariously short. Needs to expand his route tree and only average change of direction skills, but that's basically it. Suffered a broken rib/punctured lung and didn't miss any time. Thomas: Needs to improve his play strength and tends to lose his footing on some of his breaks, but his ability to stutter step and then accelerate is great, uses his basketball background to box people out, and has "minimal delay going from catcher to runner, which is uncommon for a big receiver" McConkey: Similar to Legette, he switched from WR to QB his senior season in high school. Experience as a punt returner, gunner, and on kickoff coverages. Adding weight has been a challenge in the past; scouts believe he probably won't be able to put on any additional weight in the NFL. Doesn't have ideal contact balance, but makes up for it with his creativity after the catch. AD: Played a few games at QB his senior year of high school but otherwise played WR. Always looking for someone to block. Below average play strength; physical DBs will give him trouble. Small hands and doesn't always play strong to the football. Not a YAC weapon and wasn't a high volume target in college. Coleman: Was a star basketball player in high school while also competing in track and playing football. Only considered colleges where he could play both basketball and football. Switched his commitment twice before ultimately landing at Michigan State. Left the Michigan State basketball team at the beginning of his sophomore season to focus exclusively on football. Cousin of CeeDee Lamb. Draws a lot of penalties. Quickly transitions from catcher to runner, quick burst off the LOS and at the top of his route. Physically dominant as a run blocker. Driven to max out his ability and cash in for his family. Not as efficient beating press coverage as you'd expect. While he's improved as a route runner, more polish is required. Can be a bit prone to offensive pass interference. Had some nagging injuries throughout college. Going to bounce around more from here/be shorter as I just can't do this for everyone lol, but let me know if there's any guys in particular you'd like a short blurb about and I can try to get back to you. Pearsall: Punt return and gunner experience, dad was a "tough-as-*****, sticky-handed receiver" just like Ricky. Worthy: Committed to Michigan and tried to early-enroll, but academic issues forced him to delay enrollment. He moved to Michigan anyways to get to know his teammates and ended up leaving a month later and reconsidered his options. Joined Steve Sarkisian at Texas due to how he utilized Devonta Smith at Alabama. Corley: first from his high school to play division 1 football Legette: Played running back as a child, moved to WR for high school, and then moved to QB his senior year; comes from a town of 2,500 people. His 1.78 "flying 20" tied Brian Thomas for the fastest at the combine. Experience as a kick returner and gunner, "genuinely enjoys playing on special teams". Missed a few games after a motorcycle accident in 2021. Malik Washington: Led all WRs in forced missed tackles this season. Inexperienced on special teams outside of kick returns. Torn ACL as a junior in high school. Tez Walker: Most of his offers were to play DB. Torn ACL his senior year of high school, and his college team pulled their scholarship as a result. Worked at Bojangle's to pay for his rehab during his one year gap between high school and college. Has been open about mental health challenges he's faced growing up. He had the only 20+ yard catch allowed by CB Nate Wiggins in 2023. Burton: 6 schools in 8 years, a reputation as an undisciplined player, and had "up and down moments" with the coaching staffs at Georgia and Alabama. Played for former Chargers WR Curtis Conway at one of his many high schools and was teammates with Johnny Wilson. Rice: Never lived with Jerry Rice growing up. Joined track team as a junior in high school because college football coaches questioned his speed. McMillan: Family believes he's a better baseball player than football player. Received dual-sport offers from schools including Oklahoma and USC. Nothing crazy, but has suffered several injuries over his college career. Re-aggravated his MCL sprain multiple times this past season, which forced him to miss a lot of time. Javon Baker: Left Alabama after two seasons. Initially committed to Kentucky in the transfer portal, but they pulled their offer so he ended up at UCF instead. Says he learned a lot from DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle at Alabama. More drops than TDs in his college career. Cowing: One of the lowest ranked recruits in UTEP's recruiting class but he led the team in receiving 3 years in a row. Became a father during his freshman year of college. Entered the transfer portal to try to find a small school near Arizona to be closer to his son and was shocked when several big name schools came calling. Had an NIL deal with the Boys and Girls Club, which he says was very influential on him as a child. Feisty blocker despite his small stature. Was banged up throughout his college career but never missed a game. Only FBS player with 85+ receptions each of the last two seasons. Johnny Wilson: Was only the #21 WR in his recruiting class, but he received almost 40 scholarship offers. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce was one of his main recruiters and got him to ultimately commit to Arizona State. Was one of many players to leave Arizona State amidst NCAA investigations. Didn't receive much attention in the transfer portal but he reached out to FSU head coach Mike Norvell and convinced him to offer a scholarship. Doesn't play as strong as you'd expect, struggles to match DB's physicality. "Hears footsteps" working over the middle of the field. Zero special teams experience. Missed most of 2021 due to a hamstring injury.

I’ve said it a few times in this thread, but the main thing that made DK such a great prospect IMO was his ability to beat press coverage and then accelerate immediately. Legette doesn’t have either of those qualities IMO whereas it’s Thomas’ calling card.

Sounds like everyone's been balking at the asking price for Harvard PG Malik Mack and it's slowly becoming more realistic for us to get him. Not sure who else might be in on him beyond these three schools, but I've heard us, Georgetown, and Vanderbilt are three of the schools that have mutual interest.

Understand it's probably much more than that chart swaying you, but Legette is significantly lower than Thomas in the career YPRR part of that chart and just on par in terms of the target rate. Mitchell is slightly above them in target rate but below them in YPRR. He's obviously nowhere near as jacked as DK was, but skillset/usage wise, Thomas is very similar to DK right now IMO.