DCOrange

It's tough to say statistically because the sample sizes are always small when you're talking about contested targets. For example, over the last two years, Marvin Harrison Jr. had the most contested targets in the draft class with 60 combined between the two seasons. For plays that are already sort of coin flips by nature, you'd really like to see a larger sample to draw conclusions from. Having said that, the guys at 50% or higher in terms of catch % on contested targets are (highest to lowest): Cornelius Johnson Tahj Washington Casey Washington Luke McCaffrey Rome Odunze Bryson Nesbit De'Corian Clark Hayden Hatten Jermaine Burton Javon Baker Ja'Lynn Polk Malik Nabers Brian Thomas Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Washington Zakhari Franklin Moose Muhammad III Roman Wilson If we limit it to guys that had at least 20 contested targets over the two years, you're left with: Luke McCaffrey Rome Odunze Hayden Hatten Javon Baker Ja'Lynn Polk Malik Nabers Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Washington Zakhari Franklin Some of the WRs that people have talked about in general for this class that don't make the list: Troy Franklin - 46.7% Tez Walker - 45.2% Xavier Legette - 44.0% Keon Coleman - 43.5% Brenden Rice - 42.9% Jacob Cowing - 41.7% Ricky Pearsall - 40.9% Adonai Mitchell - 40.0% Xavier Worthy - 29.4% Jamari Thrash - 29.0% Malachi Corley - 28.6% In terms of going up and high pointing the ball in traffic, Odunze, Baker, and Polk definitely pass the eye test in addition to the numbers.

Sure, but he ran more pass routes this year than every other WR in the class besides the Odunze and Polk and was still below average in terms of yards. He was near the bottom of the class in terms of targets/pass play and yards/route run too. Other guys that played with talented teammates: Nabers, Thomas, Franklin, Harrison, McConkey, Rice, Tahj Washington, Odunze, Polk, McMillan, Worthy, etc. all above him in that regard, most of them significantly above. Keon Coleman is the only other guy that was in a similar situation and had similar struggles but he at least produced decently well on a per snap basis before he transferred to Florida State.

Correct. It's based on how many times we scouted them in person/who was in attendance. It makes sense that a school like Michigan (played more games than everyone else, had more NFL talent than everyone else, played against top notch Big 10 schools, and is a shorter flight for us to get to) would be at the top. I'd like to know more about where the points are coming from in some of these cases. For example, did we go specifically to scout Iowa (in which case, you can probably deduce that DeJean is a target) or were they simply playing against Michigan?

Shakir was good this season, no doubt. He didn't do much against man coverage though; his target rate against man was extremely low and he wasn't very productive when he was targeted. I think most of the slot guys that are projected to go in the first two days and a few day 3 guys of the draft project better against man coverage than Shakir currently is/Shakir projected in college. Shakir dominated against zone coverage this year, which is obviously still very valuable but we have a need for guys that can beat man coverage and that can come both out wide or in the slot. Edit: I would add, Ladd McConkey's college metrics are very similar to Shakir's metrics this season. McConkey was #3 in the class in Targets/Pass Play and #2 in Yards/Route Run against zone, but #38 and #19 in those two metrics against man. Guys that shined in both of those metrics against man coverage and are likely slots in the NFL: Malik Nabers (could play anywhere but he obviously is out of reach barring a gigantic trade), Malachi Corley, Joshua Cephus, Malik Washington, Anthony Gould, Roman Wilson, and if we focus on 2022 instead of 2023, you could add Jacob Cowing and Jalen McMillan to the list as well.

His measurables this weekend were enough for me to bump him ahead of some of the guys that I had tied with him in terms of grade, but honestly, it kinda leaves me questioning him more if anything. With his hands, routes, and being on paper one of the best athletes of all-time, why did he struggle so much to produce in college at multiple schools? It doesn't really check out. I think some of it can unfortunately be explained away by the fact that he looked like he wasn't really trying on an alarming number of his snaps, but even when he did try, he didn't produce as much as someone with his profile should have. Very strange evaluation.

The issue with Corley is he played pretty much exclusively out of the slot in college and almost all of his production came on screen passes. He has the physical tools to become a good WR but it really requires some projection/faith in coaching staff and even then, he's still almost certainly a slot in the NFL where we have Shakir slotted. Personally, while upgrading from Gabe is easily the higher priority, I do think we could upgrade from Shakir in this year's draft if we chose to but it isn't a major need for us.

Corley was invited. I haven't seen any verified reports about why he didn't do anything, but some random people on Twitter were replying to some of the questions about him saying that he caught Covid.

I'm sure a few WRs will slip through the cracks; I'm really just doing the metrics thing for fun. As I mentioned, Zay Flowers for example was relatively low when I applied the same system to the 2023 class. Having said that, Mitchell came out with a score of -4.98, 115th out of 129. WRs that ranked 100th or worse from the prior two classes: Kayshon Boutte Tyler Scott Isaiah Weston Grant Dubose Bryce Ford-Wheaton Charlie Jones Dontayvion Wicks Tyquan Thornton Johnny Johnson III Makai Polk Tanner Conner Antoine Green Justin Shorter Jake Bobo Jalen Wayne Ty Fryfogle Slade Bolden Braylon Sanders Jayden Reed is the lowest rated in my database that has shown he might be good; he was 86th. Perhaps Mitchell will be the outlier from that group. Worthy isn't too bad on the metrics; roughly in the top third of the group over the last three years.

I get that, but point is there were no reports as far as I can tell that we met with them, much like there are no reports that we met with McConkey. That doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. I haven't found a public report about us meeting with any of our first rounders in the McBeane era as a matter of fact. Even the reports about Josh Allen stated that we only met with him at the Senior Bowl before bringing him in for a private workout.

Do you have a link to a report that we met with Kincaid or Elam at the Combine? I've checked a bunch of lists of prospects we interviewed, brought in for visits, etc. and searched on Twitter around this time in those years too and didn't find any reports.

Devil's advocate: stuff like finding holes in the zone generally aren't exciting enough to be in highlight videos. I am admittedly low on Worthy though. He shows flashes of being able to change direction really well on some of his routes, but I don't think he showed much of it after the catch/didn't show it in his routes consistently either. He's more of a guy that will catch the ball and simply outrun defenders vs. a Kadarius Toney or Zay Flowers type where they're making people miss with change of direction skills. I don't think it's an accident that he skipped the Combine drills; he knew he'd be able to just stop after the 40 and walk out a winner without having to draw attention to his hands, routes, etc.

I decided to apply the metrics system that I created this year to the 2023 draft class, mainly just to expand the sample size a bit to see if the results looked out of whack or not. The top ranked guys based on the metrics that I'm looking at: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (had to flip the formula to prioritize 2021 instead of 2022 for him since he played so little in 2022) Puka Nacua Josh Downs Tank Dell Demario Douglas Quentin Johnston Xavier Gipson Jordan Addison Rashee Rice Jalin Hyatt Notable guys outside the top 10: Zay Flowers was #24 out of 43 Jayden Reed was #30 Michael Wilson was #28 Jonathan Mingo was #32 Dontayvion Wicks was #35 Justin Shorter was #41

His junior season would have been his breakout as he led the team in receiving that year. But I do think his listed breakout age in incorrect. That’s quite interesting. I believe his correct breakout age would be 20.1 instead of 18.1.

I’m not sure the young breakout age is really a great indicator so much as an old one is bad. The youngest breakout ages for a Day 1/2 pick dating back to 2007: Bryan Edwards Drake London Parris Campbell Jordan Matthews Donte Moncrief Aaron Dobson Rondale Moore Amari Cooper Sammy Watkins DeAndre Hopkins

Assuming the top 3 are completely out of reach and the rest are fair game (though I would be very surprised if Thomas made it to 28), my rankings starting at 4 are: Brian Thomas Jr. Keon Coleman Troy Franklin Jacob Cowing Ladd McConkey Ricky Pearsall Roman Wilson Ja'Lynn Polk Adonai Mitchell Brenden Rice I would love to have Thomas at 28. After him, I'm honestly a little unsure now. Franklin had a pretty bad Combine; I still like the film and metrics enough that I'd probably take him but I'm not as confident in it as I was before yesterday. Coleman had a good Combine altogether, but the 40 time on top of the lack of separation on film is a very major red flag, so similar to Franklin, I'm not as confident about taking him as 28 as I was previously. Cowing, McConkey, Pearsall, etc. would be reaches/aren't really what I'm looking for for the Bills at 28, but I like them as prospects. Pearsall's Combine performance was pretty eye opening; similar to Mitchell I didn't really see the great athleticism that Pearsall showed yesterday.

In light of the NFL Combine performances and some prospects that I've revisited, I've updated my film, metrics, and combined WR rankings. I've also thrown in my personal rankings, which isn't necessarily married entirely to the film or the metrics but sort of a bit of A and a bit of B. For example, I think the metrics are too harsh on Mitchell, but I think the metrics is keeping McConkey above Pearsall for now. As mentioned before, some guys like Jermaine Burton and Javon Baker for example are excluded; I haven't found any All 22 film of Baker and I haven't had a chance to look at Burton.

He was productive on a per pass route basis. Georgia just didn't throw a ton/he missed a lot of time. In terms of yards per route run, he was tied for 5th in the class this year behind only Malik Nabers, Jalen Coker (FCS School), Marvin Harrison Jr., and Troy Franklin. He was merely middle of the pack in 2022 in terms of YPRR, but that's still ahead of other Day 1/2 guys such as Keon Coleman, Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas, and Xavier Legette.

Dane Brugler is saying he's likely going top 15

Feel like this second group ran the gauntlet much cleaner than the first group did.

That's because some of the routes resulted in sacks or scrambles.

Xavier Worthy with a 4.25 and I don't think anyone is super surprised lol

Pearsall testing as one of the most athletic guys in the class is not something I expected either. He checked pretty much every box on film aside from the athleticism.

Brian Thomas absolutely flying. Fastest 40 time of any WR so far.

The only WRs in this year's class to run more routes this season were Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk. It's certainly not a lack of playing time. He just wasn't very productive. This doesn't just apply to him by the way; the same goes for Coleman, but Coleman isn't as nuanced a route runner or apparently as explosive an athlete as Mitchell is.

He was 75% out wide two seasons ago and 79% this past season. He lined up out wide more often than Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, Malik Nabers, and several other guys that nobody is questioning as a wideout. I do think taking his physical traits into account, it's not as clear that he can play outside as some of these other guys, but to pretend 75+% out wide isn't a high number is simply not true.