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DCOrange

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Everything posted by DCOrange

  1. I definitely get it. It’s a good and deep WR class but picking as late as we currently are, you’re going to have to take WRs that have holes in their games. Just have to figure out which holes you think you can deal with really. Legette could definitely be good; guys with his size, speed, and physicality are very attractive prospects to gamble on. I definitely worry about how long it took him to make an impact and the press coverage stuff though given our specific needs. You might like Adonai Mitchell as well; he’s not as fast as Legette but he’s tall and generally considered a weirdly flexible route runner for someone his size. Keon Coleman is another contested catch merchant but comes with his own red flags too.
  2. I get it. But the main thing we really need out of that mold is someone that can deal with press coverage so that our smaller guys don’t have to deal with it. That’s what made DK so special and it’s what makes Legette a disappointing prospect IMO. That along with the fact that it took him 5 years to do anything at all in college; which is pretty much always an indicator of a WR that will bust in the NFL.
  3. FWIW, Dane Brugler from The Athletic just released his first two-round mock of the year based on what's hearing around the league and he does not have Legette going in the first two rounds. Seems like a lot of people have been turned off from him recently. Obviously plenty of time for that to change though.
  4. I don't think any of those guys are really similar to one another. In terms of the tall, physical WR mold like Evans, you could maybe look to Keon Coleman or Adonai Mitchell. However, they both rank near the bottom of the draft class in terms of yards per route run and aren't particularly good in terms of contested catch rate. Mitchell moves fairly well for his size but his targets per route run suggest he probably doesn't get open as well as most. Coleman on the other hand gets a pretty good number of targets but they're mostly contested opportunities which is a pretty big red flag against college competition. In terms of the size/speed freaks like DK, you're probably looking at Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette. But unlike DK Metcalf, who was one of the best prospects to come around in a long time in terms of beating press coverage, that's something that Xavier Legette really struggles with. Thomas has the size (6'4"), speed, and press beating skills to at least kinda earn that sort of competition, but he body catches pretty much everything. Not really sure anyone particularly compares to Jefferson aside from maybe one of the guys that are out of our reach.
  5. Re: Ladd - It feels like at least based on the numbers that he's a very effective WR against zone coverage, finding holes to squat down in and whatnot which is probably the strength of our current WRs. Franklin and Thomas appear to be much more effective against man coverage. They definitely have their warts though. Thomas seems to be amazing at beating press coverage which is one of the main traits I'm looking for, but he seems to have a bit of the Chase Claypool gene where he doesn't like attacking the ball in the air. Far better separator than guys like Claypool though so it shouldn't totally ruin him as a player. Franklin is a bit more raw in terms of releasing against press/route running/ball tracking but he'll go up and get it and is just a great speed threat everywhere. Re: Legette, taking this long to become a remotely productive college player is a pretty serious red flag, particularly with WRs and he doesn't seem particularly good against press coverage still. Feels like a lot of people compare him to DK Metcalf, but DK's ability to beat press coverage was his greatest skill whereas it's a weakness for Legette.
  6. At 28, I'd probably prefer WR. The three I'm currently looking at around there are Troy Franklin, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey. They seem to check more of the boxes that I'm looking for than most, though I am a bit concerned about McConkey's lack of reps against man coverage since it feels like we have a lot of zone beaters right now. So might be more of a focus on Franklin and Thomas in the first round for me.
  7. Unfortunately it's time to shift gears to the NFL Draft, and I think we all agree WR has to be the #1 priority or close to it. I put together this spreadsheet looking at a lot of the premium data from PFF over the last two seasons to see how the WR class shapes up. There's a lot of different metrics in here and I'm happy to explain any that might not be super clear, but the main thing that I'm particularly looking for is a combination of high ADOT, high Target % Open, and high Targets/Pass Play; basically WRs that are running deep routes and also getting open a lot. As you'll notice, this isn't exactly an easy combination to find. Sorting by Target % Open, you have to go almost halfway down the list before you start hitting WRs with high ADOT. The guys that stand out in this regard is probably some combination of: Roman Wilson Adonai Mitchell Ladd McConkey Brian Thomas Jr. Troy Franklin Brenden Rice Amongst that group, Adonai Mitchell's catch % and Yards Per Route Run are both pretty bad (and doesn't check the targets/pass play box either). McConkey checks 2 out of 3 boxes with flying colors and kinda checks the other. Franklin checks 2 out of 3. Wilson, Thomas, and Rice are more iffy. Anywho, figured some of you might like poking around the spreadsheet and maybe getting an idea of who you might want to research a little more. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing
  8. With all the injuries we had, some from early in the season, I just never really got high expectations on this year's team. Always felt like a "Damn, the league is so wide open; it's a shame we got the injury bug this bad" season the whole way through to me.
  9. I just don't buy the theory that the season in which basically our entire starting defense was out or wounded is our best opportunity. I think the 13 seconds season was easily our best chance in the Allen era. This season the entire league has been wide open with the possible exception of Baltimore, so yeah, if we were healthy, I would be absolutely devastated that we couldn't get it done again. But as is, it was a minor miracle that we even made it here to begin with. Assuming we aren't a cursed franchise, we should be better next season than we were this year. KC might be better too; we'll see. They may no longer be the biggest threat in the AFC anyways.
  10. Really odd he tried to bring it into the body instead of going up with his hands. These types of catches used to be his bread and butter.
  11. We definitely caught some lucky breaks in this game that should have been enough for us to get the win, but I don't really agree with the idea that this is the weakest Chiefs team we'll ever see or that this is the best chance we'll ever have. Sounds like Kelce is likely retiring after this season; that will obviously be a gigantic hole for KC to fill and they haven't exactly done a good job identifying receivers for Mahomes lately. And just generally speaking, it's difficult to maintain elite defenses year after year; KC's was great this season. They may or may not be great moving forwards. We obviously have some issues to iron out ourselves. It's entirely possible that our roster will decline from here on out, but we'll also be getting back what feels like 10 starters on our defense that we didn't have this postseason.
  12. This is why. There was no promise we would score, as evidenced by the fact that we didn't. Taking the lead with 2-5 minutes left (if we hadn't been so focused on milking the clock in the first place) is better than never taking the lead.
  13. I don't think I'm really in either camp at this point. I think McDermott is a good coach and did a good job this year, especially down the stretch when the defense returned to playing amazing football despite being severely depleted. This season could have so easily spiraled out of control and we ended up recovering beautifully instead. Don't really think tonight's loss is on him either; the main strategic thing that I hated is something that 99% of coaches do in that situation: milking the clock while we were losing and there was plenty of time left. I don't even really like milking the clock when we're losing under 2 minutes, but doing it with 5-7 minutes left in the game is just one of those dumb football things IMO that everyone does without really thinking about it. Any mistake (and we are a team that makes a lot of costly ones) ensures we lose the game with no real chance of getting the ball back, while scoring after milking the clock like that likely gives KC enough time to go down the field anyways. On the other hand, I don't think any QB-coach combo has ever gone this long without a Super Bowl and then gone on to break through together. McDermott has had plenty of chances at this point to get us over the hump and it just hasn't happened. I would totally understand if we decide to move on and try bringing a new voice in. TLDR: I don't think he's done anything this season to deserve being fired, but at the same time, sometimes you just have to change things and hope for the best when you come up short every year.
  14. Winfield will almost certainly be Tampa's top priority this offseason, followed by Evans and Baker. Winfield will probably get the franchise tag if he's unwilling to sign long-term for Tampa. I'd be very surprised if either Winfield or Evans leave. Great player though obviously.
  15. Cook’s ball security officially scares the ***** out of me. Hes gotten lucky several times lately now with near fumbles.
  16. It’s the best style of pizza in the world IMO.
  17. We may have already had it in the first half when he lofted a beautiful pass directly to Tampa in the end zone but they dropped it.
  18. The same reason so many here are praying Miami re-signs Tua. Baker is an okay starter but you always have to pay these young QBs elite QB money and Baker is simply nowhere near that level of player. He’s good enough to start but leaves you always wanting to find an upgrade. Cleveland made the right decision to move on. They made the wrong decision on who to replace him with.
  19. He is technically a free agent but I’ll be fairly surprised if Tampa doesn’t bring him back. He’s a legend there.
  20. The UFL should try this
  21. Looked like he dug his foot into the ground or something. The whole kicking motion looked wrong and it immediately looked bad off his foot. Was surprised it was as close to being good as it ultimately was.
  22. If the other 31 starting QBs all threw 10 INTs and Mahomes threw 1, would you say he threw the 2nd highest total? Who has ever described anything this way? Lol that is being purposefully misleading and meaningless. Yes Buffalo would probably be bad without Allen just like Baltimore is bad without Lamar. MVP voting has already concluded and everyone knows Lamar won
  23. How does he have the 4th most INTs if there are 6 QBs that had more INTs? That's not how math works.
  24. Baltimore's offense averages roughly 15 fewer points per game with Huntley at the helm vs. Lamar and Baltimore's record with Huntley as the main guy is 4-8 (including the playoff loss) vs. their record with Lamar being 59-24. They are a ton worse with Huntley as the QB. Stumbling into the playoffs with him playing the last couple games does not mean it's not a huge downgrade.
  25. I don’t really think this is a big deal. We’re talking about a 30-60 minute interview with probably like an hour of prep or something. I feel like most of us have probably interviewed for jobs while working another job; I’ve never felt that it impacted my work in any way. I promise you Brady is not literally coaching 24/7; he has time to have a conversation with other people in his schedule. Teams have to figure out their coaching staff earlier than later and banning playoff coaches from interviewing would just be stupid. Either forces teams to not hire the best coaches or forces the best coordinators to purposefully take worse jobs so that they don’t have to worry about not being able to interview when the call for a HC position comes up.
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