DCOrange

Gabe’s numbers over the last 4 years put him among the best deep threats in the league. The issue for him is that was the only way he was useful and with those targets being higher variance/higher risk, the numbers don’t look great next to more all around receivers.

I think this is mostly as simple as Davis is generally targeted on deep passes and deep passes are more likely to be intercepted than shorter ones. Having said that we’ve obviously seen a few shorter option routes get intercepted too.

Don’t get the people saying Dak shouldn’t be in there. He had a great season; arguably better than Josh. Obviously sucked in the playoffs though.

Yeah just went back and listened again. Field Yates said if he runs at the combine he’s going to absolutely fly and said he thinks a 4.38 is in the cards.

I don’t think Lamar would be my choice for MVP but I don’t think there’s any rational argument that he’s easily replaceable in that offense. Votes are submitted before any playoff games are played so the latter is not a factor. The performance against Miami definitely carries some weight though.

I think everyone knows Lamar won. Question is really how many votes went to other candidates/who finished 2nd. We know Josh received at least one first place vote so it won’t be unanimous for Lamar.

I’d have to go back and listen but I’m pretty sure they said nobody would be surprised if he runs like a 4.39 or something like that. Just looking around the internet it seems like people are all over the place on his speed. I’ve seen reports that he’s been laser timed at a 4.56, in the 4.4’s, and the 4.3’s so no idea lol. At any rate, he doesn’t really look like an explosive downfield guy to me. More of a quick slot guy that’s good at finding holes in zones.

Kiper and Field Yates were saying they think he’s a potential 4.3’s guy and like I said, they were basically saying Worthy is probably the fastest in the class but McConkey is in the discussion for #2. I don’t really see it personally but that’s what they were saying.

I know the draft guys at ESPN expect McConkey to have one of the fastest 40 times at the Combine after Xavier Worthy. I don’t think he’s what we need though. More of a slot only guy and zone specialist, both things we already have covered. I expect him to be one of the better rookies immediately though.

The current expectation is he ends up with Washington. Seems like an open secret in DC right now. Everyone’s already talking about him as the new HC here.

Not sure about order within tiers but probably a top 11 of: Tier 1: Mahomes Josh Lamar Tier 2: Burrow Herbert Stafford Tier 3: Dak Lawrence Cousins Love Stroud

Wilson is definitely on my watch list too. Checks a lot of boxes in terms of metrics and he was probably the only Michigan skill position guy that really popped on film to me. Downside is he’s mostly a slot guy (mostly, but he did play like 25ish % out wide) and we’re probably locking Shakir in there. If we’re only taking one WR in the draft, he’s probably not the one for me, but if we want to double dip, he’s a guy that I’d be very happy to add.

I’m hoping to scout the WRs on All 22 as the draft gets closer but for now, I’m only going off of highlights, scouting reports, and metrics. I can buy Thomas. I think he’s already great at some of the stuff that’s incredibly hard to teach. He’s gotta learn to catch with his hands though. If he can do that, he’ll be a #1; if he doesn’t, he’ll just be a good field stretcher. The other two: there’s a chance, but I’m much more skeptical with them being a #1. Mitchell probably looks the part more than Franklin but it sounds like he’s pretty raw still.

Samuel is exclusively a slot guy. Mooney is around 50/50 in terms of slot vs. wideout. I wouldn’t mind Mooney if his market is cheap but there’s a decent chance he’s a downgrade from Gabe overall. Definitely more speed though.

And 22 WRs in the top 100.

INTs by intended target: 6 - Gabe 4 - Diggs 3 - Kincaid 2 - Harty 2 - Knox 1 - Isabella

Samuel and Boyd are pretty much exclusively slot guys so I don’t think they’d make any sense as a replacement. Mooney is mostly slot and just isn’t as good as Davis anyways IMO. Definitely agree re: the first 5 names, though they’ll probably all be significantly more expensive than Gabe. Pittman also has mostly been a slant merchant in the NFL; very good player and one of my personal favorites but if we’re focused on explosive vertical plays, he’s not the guy. Odell I could go either way on vs. Gabe.

I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats.

That first play action play where Sherfield has the entire middle of the field open and just breaks the play by himself is so brutal.

I think he can play out wide or in the slot; probably more of a Y-receiver than anything else. He's played the vast majority of his snaps in college out wide but he does shift to the slot sometimes.

I can't remember if I've posted about him yet, but I have to imagine Beane will be giving Xavier Worthy a very hard look for our 1st or 2nd round pick. Maybe the youngest WR in the class or close to it, track star speed, and what seems to be very good ball tracking down the field. He's gotten some comps to Zay Flowers, who was probably my favorite WR in the class last year.

@GunnerBill Have you watched UCF's Javon Baker at all? I haven't scouted him personally but some of the clips I've seen and some of the metrics have me circling his name as a potential underrated fit for us out wide. I'm sure Bills fans would be totally fine replacing Gabe Davis with a big vertical threat from UCF 😁

Hard to tell what was Kingsbury and what was Caleb just going off script, but USC's offense was horrendous to watch this season. They managed to take a QB with extraordinary playmaking chops and great physical tools and make him one of the least fun scouting experiences of my life.

Seems like all the draft media people have Coleman much higher than people like you and I do. He’s probably the guy I’m most skeptical of among the WRs for all the reasons you mentioned. I think literally 50% of his targets this season were contested and he wasn’t particularly good at bringing them in. He has a couple freakishly good catches on film that seem to have won the media over but the full film and numbers do not match that at all.

I didn't think any of UNC's WRs stood out on film this year when I was watching Maye, but I know some other people are very high on him like you are so maybe I'm just missing it. Just mentioning it as a reply to your post because you were researching. For those that are interested, two really handy links for scouting purposes: A free spreadsheet that a bunch of people worked on to provide links to a ton of game film of each prospect (generally just broadcast views, but it's better than nothing): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18a0E2eJPc14LmSOw6vJtvhryNWC-ojOffARtFlCV3xk/edit#gid=0 Or for $2 a month you can get access to All-22 film for a ton of prospects here; this is what I use for my QB scouting https://www.patreon.com/CaddysCutups