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Everything posted by DCOrange
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In addition to not playing the final week, Baltimore was also able to coast in a lot of their games this year. It bit them in the ass a couple times as they blew leads, but by the time you hit the second half or a couple minutes into the second half, they had a 90+% chance of winning basically every game this year and you could pretty clearly tell they took their foot off the gas in those situations a lot. Ultimately, I don’t think Lamar should win MVP. Don’t think Allen should this season either. But I think Lamar was better than his numbers indicate and Allen was worse than his numbers indicate (though I think his turnovers are overstated this season). Voting is done before the playoffs begin.
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Even if you’re right about not going past two reads, why should he go past two reads before running if he can score 30+ doing that? The offense functioning well because of the fact that teams are terrified by him is a pro, not a con.
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Seems like Houston caught Baltimore’s offense off guard by severely going against their own tendencies. 29th in the league in blitz rate this year and then they blitz Lamar more than basically anyone ever has before. Baltimore got to the locker room and figured it out and completely dominated the second half. Feels like a good trait for a team to me.
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With the 32nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select:
DCOrange replied to Kaenon's topic in College Football
I’m pretty sure Coleman is near the best in the class in terms of drop %. Having said that, his contested catch % is pretty poor so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a case where passes aren’t being categorized as drops due to how contested they are. -
Who’s the best QB prospect in the ‘24 draft class?
DCOrange replied to bills6969's topic in College Football
Just finished up with Drake Maye this afternoon. He has my stamp of approval. There's definitely some stuff to clean up, but he checks most of the boxes teams are looking for and I think he has a few relatively easy things to fix that should help take his game to another level. Considering I've already finished Caleb and Daniels as well, I'm pretty confident Maye will ultimately be my #1 QB in the class. -
At the end of the day, I don't think it's wise for people to treat PFF grades as "gospel" as I believe JJ Watt said it. As best as they try, grading football players is ultimately a subjective exercise, regardless of if it's a nerd or a coach doing the grading. If you're willing to pay for what IMO is a very expensive subscription, I believe you are able to get a somewhat detailed breakdown of what went into each player's grade in a given week but that's just not an additional expense that I need in my budget lol. Anecdotally, I feel like when there's occasional viral moments like this where they do come out and explain a specific rating, it generally makes sense. I'm sure there are plays that can be nitpicked but I appreciate when they show their work on stuff like Stroud vs. Love and that one game several years ago when Aaron Rodgers threw for like 400 yards and 5 TDs but received a pretty mediocre grade because it was basically all off of screen passes and busted coverages. I generally feel like I agree with or at least understand situations where a player has great box score stats but a relatively low grade (Jordan Phillips 9.5 sack season with us is one I remember off the top of my head). But obviously I'm only really looking at players that I care about; I can't say I have any idea if Peter Skoronski's run blocking grade is accurate or not.
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They have done this several times over the years. Unsurprisingly, most of the people (not saying you, just the general people that go crazy on Twitter and such) that complain about them don't really care to invest time in reading/listening/watching. The link below includes guides as to how they grade the different position groups. It does not include answers regarding who is physically doing the grading, who reviews the graders, etc., but I believe that's been answered elsewhere as well. If I remember right there's like a three-level review process on every game. https://profootballfocussupport.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360029567633-How-does-PFF-grade-each-position-
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It’s just an easy way for them to get more clicks.
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Who’s the best QB prospect in the ‘24 draft class?
DCOrange replied to bills6969's topic in College Football
Finished up my scouting of Jayden Daniels...I don't really get it. His running ability is definitely in the realm of Lamar Jackson (not as good, but the comparison isn't crazy), but his passing ability just seems quite bad. Beyond hitting stationary targets squatting down against zone defense, he really struggled with ball placement and there isn't an easy explanation as to what is throwing his accuracy off aside from "he just doesn't have it". I ended up with a 4th round grade on him and a reasonable peak comp for him being our beloved Tyrod Taylor. https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/jayden-daniels/ -
Who’s the best QB prospect in the ‘24 draft class?
DCOrange replied to bills6969's topic in College Football
Oregon (and Nix) did an amazing job making sure he got the ball out extremely quickly once he transferred there. I think he’d be a good fit with Miami, Denver, or the Shanahan disciples. -
I definitely agree with the OP that fake slides should be a penalty. I don't really why this is a topic right now though. I don't remember seeing a fake slide since Pickett did it in college.
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Murray's inarguably a better pass blocker, and more arguably, better at everything else.
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Oh that’s my bad. Steichen has worked both sides but he did move over to offense awhile ago.
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Jonathan Gannon John Harbaugh Sean McDermott Matt Eberflus DeMeco Ryans Shane Steichen Bill Belichick Dennis Allen Robert Saleh Mike Tomlin Todd Bowles
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There's still a lot of head coaches with defensive backgrounds and likely another 1 or 2 added to the list this offseason. It's currently 11 defense and 14 offense and seems like a near certainty Dan Quinn will be taking one of the vacancies.
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Pittsburgh is insisting that Pickett remains their franchise QB moving forward, but benching him for Mason Rudolph seems to indicate that the QB they want moving forwards is not currently on the roster.
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I think if they decide they want Harrison, they'll probably trade down to 2 or 3 and let one of those teams give up assets to secure their QB. But I'd be very, very surprised if they decide not to just stay at #1 and take the QB.
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Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.
DCOrange replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
He's generally been a pretty poor receiver out of the backfield. He was legitimately good in that regard in his last season with Tampa, but other than that, he's usually near the top of the league in drops (not limiting it to just RBs either) and isn't particularly effective when he does catch it. Cook is a far better receiving option. Both suck in terms of pass blocking but Fournette is definitely better in that regard. The point someone else made about ball security is definitely worth considering though. Cook is getting to the point where I'm legitimately nervous any time he's in traffic that he's going to cough it up. It obviously doesn't happen THAT often, but even when he isn't fumbling the ball, you can see a few times throughout the game where it looks like he bobbles the ball for a moment and regains it. He is simply a way more dynamic playmaker than Fournette though. -
https://nflpa.com/posts/the-players-all-pro The NFLPA published their All Pro team for the 2023 season. Players could only vote on their own position/positions they line up against (i.e. C voting for DT). Also could not vote for teammates. Should be noted they only name a 1st team All Pro. No Buffalo Bills made the list (should also note they did not have a slot corner spot, just two corners so Taron isn't a snub).
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WR coach was fired as well. So long story short, Bears keeping Eberfleus and the defensive staff in place; overhauling the offensive staff (presumably as they draft a new QB but we'll see).
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For better or worse, Khan is one of the owners that tends to give his head coaches a lot of time before he moves on (and the original owner was this way too). The original owner ran the team from 1995 to 2010 and only had two head coaches during that time. Khan has owned the team for 12 years now; Pederson is the 5th head coach during that time, but that's really just because Mularkey and Urban Meyer were epic disasters that had to be fired after one year. The other two coaches, Gus Bradley and our beloved Doug Marrone, got 4 years each (roughly; Bradley was fired towards the end of his 4th season and Marrone took over). Bradley had a 14-48 record in his tenure; Marrone was 23-43. Pederson is entering Year #3 and is 18-16 so far; I doubt he's really close to the hot seat yet.
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I also think re: Lamar's playoff struggles, some context is needed. He was inarguably bad in his playoff debut as a rookie; no argument there. His second playoff game, he was a sophomore and put up a total of 508 yards while his receivers dropped more passes in one game than you might see in half a season from a normal team, some of which directly led to turnovers and points off the board. He certainly made some mistakes in that game (including a laughably bad fumble) but it was similar to a lot of Josh Allen's good games where he turns it over but does so much else that it outweighs the bad. It just so happens that in this game, Lamar's WRs dropped all of the passes that would have made up for the bad. Lamar was legitimately good in his 3rd start and then we shut Baltimore down the following week. I'd say he's been good in 2 of his 4 playoff games. Certainly nowhere near the god-like level that Allen reached a couple years ago, but I think Lamar is miscast as a playoff choker when it's really as simple as he struggled as a rookie (like the vast majority of QBs do) and has generally been let down by the dreadful playmakers around him. He still doesn't have a good group around him this year, but it's by far the best he's ever had. He's at least throwing to NFL caliber players now instead of a washed up Willie Snead, Crabtree, Seth Roberts, etc. (and his defense has been tremendous this season which should help too).
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Difference in scoring with and without Lamar by year: 2019: -5.5 points per game without him 2020: -16.3 PPG 2021: -15.3 PPG 2022: -12.5 PPG 2023: -19.6 PPG Should note 2019, 2020, and 2023 were only one game without Lamar, but there's obviously still a major difference in 2021/2022 where he missed 10 games entirely and played a handful of snaps in 2 others.
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I certainly won't be surprised if he ends up in New England, but based on the breakdown in Tennessee where Vrabel wanted to go win now while ownership ultimately decided to rebuild long-term, I'm not sure New England is a good fit either. Obviously plenty of connections there though. Kinda think Vrabel has his eye on the Chargers or Falcons jobs.
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Who’s the best QB prospect in the ‘24 draft class?
DCOrange replied to bills6969's topic in College Football
I've only finished scouting Caleb Williams and Bo Nix so far. I obviously have Caleb ahead of Bo Nix; significantly so. Having said that, I was pretty disappointed in Caleb's tape. There's a lot of issues to work on there IMO. Still a sky high ceiling considering his package of physical tools, elusiveness in the pocket, and creativity, but I ended up having him on par with Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, and Trey Lance in terms of draft grade, slightly behind guys like Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield. I didn't have a full scouting report on Kyler Murray because it sounded like he was going the baseball route for most of the process, but I definitely think Kyler was a more polished QB at the time than Caleb is right now and a more accurate passer as well. My scouting reports on Caleb and Bo are here: https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/caleb-williams/ https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/bo-nix/