RichRiderBills

You are right, and the stat is 13 QBs have "led" teams to playoffs since merger. Only 12 of them played 10 or more games. I think about half were "day 1" starters, but would have to deep dive there. One of the 12 was also Dieter Brock, a 34 year old accomplished CFL QB. Really when you get down to it , cases that compare to Mac Jones are so rare.

Its an accurate representation of % chance an NFL Team since the merger is helmed by a Rookie QB who takes his team to playoffs. The stat is relevant and is .08% I was wrong about the .07. .07 is for rookies who played 10 or more games. You want to take number of teams that started rookies, then calculate that number who made the playoffs, fine....that's going to be incredibly low as well. 5% from the last 10 years still sounds high. You have to eliminate a couple guys who were not day 1 starters. I' ve also made the point nearly all of these guys were dual threat. The instances where teams had established starters or where others were chosen to start over the rookie is viable. The argument is the chance of a rookie QB leading a team to the playoffs is very low. You guys can spin your wheels about Mac Jones all you want, but that's a fact.

You pull this kind of BS all the time hapless. Someone lays out the framework of an uterrly irrefutable point and you put some arrogant burden on them to lay out the math and act like you've won the point. I've laid out stats that are accurate and frame in my point.

We cannot escape that the odds of a rookie QB leading his team to the playoffs since the merger is infinitesimal. The odds of a non mobile running QB pulling it off are even worse. I stand by the stat provided.

I hope not. Folks did hate the Bills though during the run.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/jetswire.usatoday.com/lists/rookie-quarterbacks-nfl-playoff-history-zach-wilson-new-york-jets/amp/ Nope, the math is not wrong, but there are flaws in it, I’d agree there. If you wanted to crunch the numbers of how many teams that specifically started rookies and how many of those teams made the playoffs by virtue of the rookie , you’d perhaps get a different # that would still be significantly low and insignificant. Let’s also add several of the 13 listed did not start the season and were fill ins due to injury or poor performance. Your notion it occurs every 5 years is not at all accurate. Nearly half occurred in the last 10 years, and most of these guys were big running threats. The notion it is statistically (extremely)improbable a rookie QB can lead a team to the playoffs still is irrevocably accurate. Keep in mind, both Luck and Dalton were much better runners than Jones, you are in a zone of even more unlikely. I’ll also add that the kind of defenses some of these teams that did it had llike Rothlisberger and Flacco are essentially impossible to construct these days.

For those homers in the NFL community predicting the Patriots to make the playoffs or even win the division. Since the merger 13 rookie QBs have started a playoff game. 10 have led teams to playoffs, and most of them were fairly pedestrian teams. The merger was 51 years ago. 13 dudes total. By my rough math, thats a .07 % chance for a team to make the playoffs w a rookie QB. IMO most of the rookie QBs who were threats were running type QBs.

Funny this morning, Cowboys and media gushing about Dak....who basically was the guy he's always been; huge statline but takes the L. This has been Dak's and Kellwn Moore's MO.... Cowboys will be marginally relevant non contender...same as the past 25 years.

Rich Eisen just mentioned the Bills and Josh Allen being passed over for the game. Sounded like a backhanded cut at the boys.

The Bills did not practice.....

Steelers can only blame themselves. They let oline go to hell, then this past off season instead of fix it, they double down on skill guys. Not the Steeler way. Its a bit delusional.

Yep, and I'm saying these reasons are all very subjective hunchy fanspeak and not well crafted / articulated analysis.

Very few are , and most that have articulated themselves a bit better than what you did with a glorified " I got a feeling we blow it" . Its not that the Bills are invincible, but I just don't see it. Steelers Oline is really weak...new offensive coordinator / offensive system with stubborn old QB will be a recipe for disaster. I think the Bills defense will be improved and Big Ben behind this oline is a recipe for disaster. Pitt is a regional rival we love to hate. Stadium will be rocking. Yes Steelers got out to a hot start last year, but our roster is just better all around. The Bills are a top 3 super bowl contender, and most of us are not used to this spot. We're good...we have good focused players, and focused coaching that have not lapsed in these moments. As of 2021, Bills have a better QB, better defense , and better coach. This is my bottom line. There were guys like you every week last year. I am cool with that, but itemize the reasons why and maybe there is buy in.

Wentz never had as complete a year as Allen in 2020. In fact, Allen has been fairly consistant for about 20-25 games. Wentz had like 8 good games.

Sanders more than competant in slot. Hodgins will be on the PS..or we will have a dude just as good as him waiting. Had some hopes for Hodgins, but he did not show enough to be "mourned" or make the squad, now its the harder road for him.

Ah..ok missed that

So Wade made roster? He needed to be cut first for exemption....

The Phins are so overrated. Flores too , is highly over blown. They simply have no clue what they're doing, and the bottom falls out this year.

Remember the phins game 2018? 17's rookie year? JA 5 total TDs in a meaningless game. Contrast w / 2020 Tua a train wreck in a game that meant everything. Tua can't hold #17's athletic support.

He did not look terrible. This guy will take some time.

I honestly think the refs are taken aback by the bills tempo and just want to send a message of "hey its preseason". Bills have a tough roster to make and guys are playing hard, fast, and flying. This is one of the single weirdest officiated games ive ever seen. I've got a warm fuzzy...team looks tough.

That basham call was garbage. Chop block call was garbage.

Agree to disagree.

Fair is fair...that helmet to helmet is a bad call too. Officiating has been dreadful.

Going for the shin? Wow...horrid call.