Richard Noggin

Bass-o-matic to BASStard (2 'S's) Details matter

Where does this line of analysis leave us when looking at Maye's (NE) release? Strikes me as brutally elongated, and with a hitch.

I'd argue they're MUCH better than Joe B, and are roster locks, whereas Joe B is now in a vulnerable position to defend his extended scope with the more national outlet. Matt Parrino is an upgrade, locally. No one disputes that. Like, we don't want Thad advancing his own interests, ever.

Shakir was thought of as a steal when drafted, and has since shown steady improvement despite limited opportunities early in each season. Had some rookie year issues, and also had some issues with drops and whatnot in camp and preseason of year two. Nevertheless, Shakir became a supremely reliable and explosive target down the stretch last season. He's not a prototypical (?) deep boundary threat, though, so we're supposed to find only fault? Even though "prototypical #1 WRs" don't win many championships. Even though Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle and Amon-Ra St Brown and Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and the San Fran WRs and blah blah blah all seem like the perfect options in reality (despite their measured limitations off the field). I'd argue that having Shakir and Samuel moving around from Z to Y to tight to the backfield, with MVS, Claypool (or Shorter), and Coleman lining up wide, and Kincaid and Knox as interchangeable and moveable TEs...is a pretty great headspace for the elite #17 to be in this year. Just scheme and leverage and who gets open. No more insane egos that outlived their usefulness. Sign me up.

Personally I prefer the prospect of veterans McGovern and Edwards being the default OC and LG until definitively proven otherwise. Morse was clearly a finesse/movement OC, and it appears the Bills might prefer a beefier IOL after all. McGovern has been pining to play C since he got moved in college. I'll bet the guy can do the job and do so with a little more mass in the ass than the last guy. Although that last guy was pretty damned mobile and ostensibly a great locker room influence. I like to judge the Bills on the moves they CHOOSE to make. They definitely CHOSE this o-line reshuffle. So let's judge them on how well it works. Shall we?

Is it fair to say the majority of fans are comfortable with the Bills most likely moving on from almost any RB after their rookie deal expires (or possibly even before, like with Moss)? Seems like a position you can spend a day two or three pick on every other year to keep the pipeline stocked up on the cheap.

Totally agree, to be honest.

Maybe too many witnesses indicated, too much subtle suggestion that this isn't a new or unexpected story to emerge around the accused, etc. But also, you're not wrong to maintain some degree of reservation until all is known. None of us commenting here actually KNOWS anything at all about this story.

I don't think anyone is RELYING on Solomon right now (even though the Troy pass rusher pipeline is actually historically legit in this millennium). However, a valid NFL depth EDGE guy (like Smoot, Toohill, or Jonathan) will NOT make the Bills' 53 because of Javon Solomon, so he WILL then be relied upon to contribute on special teams and/or hopefully pass rushing sub-packages. If Javon Solomon was even just a couple inches taller, he'd have been drafted on day two, even though his functional length (wingspan) is better than Latu, Verse, Robinson (Chop), Trice, Ellis, and others. (Lotta those dudes aren't much heavier than him, either.)

Reluctantly agree with all this, especially the bolded. Just found myself imagining a world where the underlying reason Ben Johnson eventually ended his candidacies for any remaining 2024 job searches is that he realized Sean McDermott is entering a make-or-break season in Buffalo. Best job ever (coaching Josh Allen in his prime) could have an opening during/after the 2024 season, and meanwhile Johnson gets to continue to run a high end offense with a better than average QB on a projected-to-be successful team. (Lotta respect actually for a guy who ostensibly turned down multiple HC jobs...waiting for the right fit. Super rare.)

What about points per game and turnovers per game? And win-loss record? Brady did seemingly stabilize the offense and field a less self-destructive attack. Everything you share here is worthy of review, but isn't the bigger picture also important?

I get it, I was feeling it a little bit during day two and three, but overall it's not really rational.

This before-and-after breakdown basically illustrates the Bills offense employing more balance (without sacrificing passing attempts) and more ball security under Brady, while surrendering about 1 ypa. They tightened things up, found balance, played it closer to the vest, and won a lot more games. Scoring and wins went up, while turnovers went down. That's fundamentally more sound football being played under Brady. (I acknowledge room for more nuance than this, but the measurable productivity was what it was.)

Why can't Solomon, who is already in Buffalo, have a similar impact as a pass rush specialist by season's end? "Obvious" passing downs they could slide Groot inside and have Solomon line up wide, possibly even as pseudo-OLB/5th DL. Lots of pass rush personnel flexibility if they can first stop the run effectively.

It really feels like fans are mostly shook by "giving" the Chiefs Worthy (and passing on Legette) before selecting Coleman. So it's really about WHO they've invested in (top picks each of the last two drafts), rather than how much they've invested. I guess not double-dipping at WR also ranks for many fans, and I can admit to relentlessly rooting for Franklin on day two and three. As a counter to that mindset, however, I'd ask everyone this question: realistically, would fans have been happier with Franklin at 33 over Coleman? Would his speed and EXCELLENT advanced metrics and former recruiting by Brady have quieted the crowd a bit? Of course the Diggs trade is a huge part of all of this, but I'd argue it's obvious that the player finally just forced his way out. It became untenable, and the team had to take its medicine. Plus, that dude was an effing GHOST the 2nd half of the last two seasons and always in the playoffs for the Bills. That really mitigates the loss there for me, at least.

The Bills drafted a receiving target with their 1st pick each of the last two years. That's SERIOUS investment (better late than never). Kincaid should be their WR1 this season, with a variety of targets behind him hopefully offering solutions to whatever DCs devise throughout 2024. People are sleeping on Kincaid imho. Not yet, no doubt. But was Kelce a game changer in his rookie season? (He appeared in only one game and recorded no stats.) Next two years were solid, but not great. So why can't an even better prospect (without the benefit of hindsight and Andy Reid), playing with Josh Allen, not also ascend?

Being grabby could absolutely stem, in part, from anxiety/panic at the route stem or initial break, when a WR will naturally gain some advantage and it's on the DB to sink and release and recover. Essentially, it's on the DB to trust his technique and innate talent to close without overtly impeding the WR. He's always shown signs of being handsy, and add to that him going from primarily press-man to playing off a bunch and reading multiple cues determining his post-snap responsibilities, and there could def be an exponential need for holistic re-training of his mind and body. Tre possesses infectious, innate confidence and composure that not every talented athlete has. Elam might be a more tightly-wound guy who isn't so clear-headed under duress.

KC is top-5 in NFL arrests over the past two decades and more recently is notoriously less concerned with employee character and off-field behavior than all orgs but CLE, feels like. Easy to dislike. Objectively unlikable.

Not to defend trolling, but it was kinda clear to me from the jump that @White Linen was doing a dry bit to deflect (no smirk at the camera). Just not a serious accusation (the Allen x Tannehill comp) to levy at @GunnerBill, and then also @Beck Water. Out of character for me, or maybe a testament to the poking, I enjoyed how well the bit played out (for those who were potentially watching it in the know).

Completely understand a lot of what you're arguing here. The top of the Bills WR room lacks a proven #1 target who demands defensive attention. But each of the last two seasons, the Bills' elite WR1 faded hard down the stretch and in the playoffs. And their WR2's lack of consistency and efficiency was often costly. And tbh, most defenses were NOT doing much doubling of Diggs and Davis. So really, the Bills don't have a heavy lift in improving upon their top-of-the-depth-chart productivity. It was already significantly spreading out down the stretch. They've now got a few long boundary guys with some serious talent but also some questions, and they've got a couple dynamic motion/slot/z&y guys who could be important chain movers and chess pieces. This of course ignores a potential #1 passing target in Kincaid, and a very solid #2 TE in Knox. And also RBs with serious receiving chops. I like Allen having a quieter array of receiving egos on the field and on the sideline; I like him being the alpha now. Watch him take control... Incredibly interested in how defenses will play the Bills this season, and of course interested in how the Bills will attack those defenses. I expect a mix of 12 and 11 personnel groups and a mix of motions and alignments, including condensed formations and some use of heavy and 2-back groupings. A major question that your post and so many others leads us to is: do we have any guys who will step up on high leverage down-and-distance snaps and win their reps? Will the offense (and Allen) identify and utilize its as yet unproven advantages while overcoming its perceived weaknesses?

That's just silly. With where things are in the off-season, or really ever, expecting/needing the QB to share some kind of revelatory observations about a specific passing target is folly. Allen's holistic and enthusiastic comments about Hollins (a big, gritty pro who is seeking to fill a prominent leadership, depth, and special teams role) are somehow a bad sign?! That's confirmation bias gymnastics. You don't definitively know most of what you think you know. None of us do.

Allen has not been adequately celebrated for his ability to avoid pressure (early penetration especially) that would result in sacks for the majority of NFL QBs. Why an otherwise ultra efficient Marino or Cousins or Goff or Tagovailoa tends to fall short in the playoffs: they don't often transcend/overcome early defensive pressure and extend otherwise negative/dead plays. A talent like Allen can cover up or compensate for so many protection breakdowns that would immediately scuttle the same plays for so many other offenses. Yes. Re-watching even the 13 seconds game recently, I was struck by how efficient Allen was early in drives, targeting Beasley especially to move the chains and get within striking distance (for those legendary deep/intermediate TD strikes to Davis). QB17 has ALREADY shown us he is willing to be the trigger man of an efficient, diverse attack. But Beasley and Brown went away, and Diggs and Davis plateaued, and Mckenzie and Harty failed to fill in. Hopefully Kincaid and Samuel and Shakir and the RBs shine as featured targets in a diverse passing attack, with some combination of Coleman, MVS, and/or Claypool and Shorter/Shavers doing the boundary work to keep defenses honest enough. I do think Samuel and Shakir and Kincaid (and maybe Knox and Cook and Davis) could all be trustworthy targets encouraging Allen to take what the defense gives him.

Really interesting where the author did (and did NOT) project Coleman's value to be seen, schematically: "Both Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this offseason, leaving the Bills sorely lacking in the receiver room. Coleman will work toward getting a major share of the 241 targets that went to them last season. He will work to become Allen's favorite target both inside and outside the structure of the Buffalo offense. The rookie receiver will fight for jump balls, he'll find holes in zone coverage, and he'll work his way toward Allen when the QB gets creative on the move. That'll all require rapport, and they're already planning to work out this offseason at Allen's place in Wyoming. Coleman's path to the No. 1 spot starts there." No mention of winning against press-man coverage on the outside, which of course is the most persistent criticism of his college tape.

There is more content (worthwhile stuff, too) to your post beyond what I'm quoting here, but if we were having a f2f convo, right about here I'd say something like, "I'm gonna go ahead and stop you right THERE." Dawkins and Brown are objectively athletic offensive tackles. Brown in particular tested out as a HISTORICALLY athletic tackle prospect. And Dawkins, despite and/or because he tends to carry more weight in the off-season than some fans prefer, is also a REALLY underrated athlete still, somehow. There isn't really room for reasonable debate on this point. They ARE athletic when compared to other NFL tackles.

Does Pederson employ a high volume of option routes? He's from the Reid tree, so seems likely there is room for complexity in his passing concepts. If so, that's where Davis seemed to struggle, and his QB struggled in turn when targeting him. That TB game remains such a weird outlier, however, that suggests maybe Davis CAN do other stuff, and just ordinarily wasn't asked to? (doubtful, but maybe that playbook just did not suit him)