Richard Noggin

Breaking news. Thanks, Vic.

A player can only be judged upon his play. The player has no say in where he is drafted. The general manager who drafts the player, however, SHOULD be judged based upon draft value relative to performance. Think critically.

Really well-explained argument here. Bravo. I can't say for sure you're wrong, because what do I really know about what will happen in the future, but you sure aren't giving us much insight into why you think what you think.

The RB debate is compelling. Nice to see a number of you here recognizing the NEED for another RB who isn't JustAGuy. Singletary missed time last season, and as noted, hasn't yet displayed: a nose for the endzone (could've been due in part to Gore being the primary goal line guy) or a knack for receiving (definitely needs to develop there), pass-blocking, and straight-line power. I like the player. He's fun to watch, and effective. But he's not the only piece a versatile offense needs back there. And we know the Bills want to be versatile. Yeldon brings (sneaky effective) pass-catching. Full stop. The roster has no power or speed at RB. Maybe they sign a FA who fills the void. But many of us think a 2nd or 3rd round pick could land a dynamic weapon who would help the offense more than any other pick in those rounds.

You say he's "one of those rare guys" like it's a good thing. But he's not a steak. He's raw so he'll need time to learn the game...but don't worry, his body will break down sooner because he's old(er), too.

You can't make me.

I'm saying it has to do with a guy whose specialty is fantasy football analysis. Which has little to do with actual football analysis And I'll discuss what I please, thank you.

Oof. Your hard work is GREATLY AND SINCERELY (I'm not kidding, for once) appreciated, but it's no reason to hop on a cross over a misused word.

I dig your directness.

You don't think those biases are informed by a Bills team that does not perform highly in most fantasy metrics? We haven't had beastly WRs or consistently productive RBS in a couple years (or decades), at least. Allen has put up some numbers in fantasy terms, but doesn't record the passing volume that makes him elite week in and week out. Our DEs and DTs might get pressure but they don't record many sacks. Our secondary is amazing but doesn't take the ball away a ton. It seems like you made my point for me (which doesn't have to mean you're wrong in any way). The Bills aren't a statistically impressive team, with respect to fantasy production, and this particular fantasy analyst ranks their roster a bit harshly as a result. And I don't really agree with that statistical production-based assessment.

That's exactly what I was getting at. Fans often see college production and success and want a player based on that past performance at a lower level of difficulty. Scouts often see through all that to focus on the traits to project how the player might perform under VERY different conditions at the NFL level. Both approaches get it wrong. Both have merit. I tend to weight it 60/40 in favor of traits. Maybe more. The experts are usually better at this than the fans. But not always.

I'm curious about the entire crew, to be honest...

Just filthy. He a dawg.

The analysts who focus primarily on fantasy football need to be viewed almost exclusively through the lens of fantasy football. NFL statistical production matters very much, but is also so contingent upon so many variables. It's different than other sports. So this kind of analysis and ranking is cool, for fantasy football purposes.

Good stuff here, gang. I find it difficult to disagree with what I'm reading. Some of you value college production, and others (mostly one personnel evaluator here) value traits. Burrow's production was legendary this past season. No doubt. But will he be able to enjoy similar success at the next level, with different coaching and much greater competition both physically and schematically? That's the question. When Kirk Cousins was on the market a couple years ago, I had decided I wanted the Bills to go all-in on a precise pocket passer like him. I convinced myself he was the answer, and that NFL success still requires pocket precision above all else. And I think that is right, IF (and maybe only if) a number of other offensive factors are consistently accounted for (like scheme, protection, running game, weapons, etc.) at an above-average level. Immobile guys with average-ish arms (like a Cousins or a Brady, for example) have a difficult time producing at a high level when things around them break down. And more often than not in the NFL, things break down a bit. With the margins as thin as they are these days, it seems like physical gifts and improvisational ability are damn near essential to NFL success (let's just set aside the TB12 outlier for SO MANY reasons). Sure, a Manning and a Brees can win one or two 'ships when everything lines up (even though that was a while back now), and can certainly be successful overall. But who will be winning the next ten SBs? Probably REALLY physically talented QBs who also play the position well.

Don't rile them up. Social justice as a valid and important subset of American civic life triggers some people who don't wish to hear complaints from historically marginalized peoples. Let's just stick to the NFL.

I'm coming at this from a similar perspective. Ordinarily I rage against investing much in the RB position. Truly. Pass rush is far more important. But then again, pass rush is most valuable when playing with a lead. And we're often reminded that scoring lots of points above all else is the best path to success in the modern NFL. DE should ideally be valued more highly in the draft. But what if the RBs available are just so much more impactful than the DEs available on Day Two? I mean, the guys from Wisconsin, LSU, FSU, Utah, etc. are really dynamic prospects. I don't think the (potentially) available DEs come close this year. The Bills offense needs another option at RB, whether Singletary is awesome or not.

I really want to get on board with this. Theoretically, schematically, the empty set is intriguing with the Bills personnel. Obviously Daboll thinks so, given his use of it at critical times last season. But... Didn't the Bills struggle against pressure when in empty sets? Whether it was difficulty diagnosing the blitz and adjusting protections, or dealing with stunts and twists, or with the QB (and WRs being on the same page) executing the hot reads with any consistency--I recall some significant issues against aggressive defenses. It's possible the numbers don't support my recollection. I'll bet they do. Allen and co.'s greatest weaknesses (and therefore, also their greatest opportunities for growth) might have been on display in empty sets. So it will certainly be interesting to see how that plays out in 2020 (IF 2020 is a thing). I agree that Daboll likes the idea of empty sets, for sure.

Would that 2nd round EDGE guy, in this year's draft, be an impact prospect? Doesn't seem like 54 presents value at that position in 2020. You can possibly get a heck of an RB at 54, or even in the 3rd round if someone else falls into their laps in the 2nd. RB is generally only a worthwhile investment to a team looking to complete the puzzle. And I believe the Bills need to complete the offensive puzzle in 2020 and 2021. The next two years are the window. A developmental or backup DE doesn't move the needle as much this year.

Would having two young, dynamic Day Two RBs (2nd and 3rd round RBs are like 1st round WRs in terms of talent) on the roster be more advantageous than having another depth/developmental EDGE guy who could struggle to get snaps? Or, more advantageous than having a young WR4 who would have a steep learning curve in Daboll's complex, read-and-react passing offense (see also: Duke and Foster who struggled to see the field)? The current Bills roster can absorb injuries and rotate in fresh bodies at a majority of positions, minus QB for sure, maybe CB (although scheme helps to mitigate here), and definitely RB. Another weapon at RB is vital to the offense progressing. Singletary is effective, but you need another option there (unless you've got a QB like Mahomes, apparently). Lamar Miller could be a fit if he's healthy; so could Carlos Hyde I suppose. Or, a Day Two high-end talent like many here have proposed. CB and RB on Day Two seems like a solid plan.

Size queen.

A few others are making the argument that RB is never a "glaring" need, and I've often said something like that myself. But what I typically mean is that you shouldn't feel compelled to spend excessive capital to address the need. A solid offense DOES need effective RB play, though. So how do the Bills ensure they get solid production from the position over the course of an entire NFL campaign? (Draft Day 2 is the most popular option so far.)

Totally agree that this need does not necessitate a huge investment of money or draft capital to fill. But, that doesn't lessen the importance of filling it, right? Really hammering this point, sorry. CB and depth LB (although I like Corey Thompson) seem like the only other obvious holes to fill...

I really liked Yeldon in the second half against NE last year; his pass-catching presented a problem for the D, much like White has done for years in NE. But is that a clear #2, or just a committee member, able to contribute in specific ways? I think you need another versatile guy.

I sure hope so. Haven't had the chance to check out RB prospects this year, except for some insightful posts on here.