Richard Noggin

I was having similar reactions, or at least questions, as I read the OP. Are new coaches historically UNsuccessful in early-season games, especially in the last three to five seasons? The OP seems to be assuming (or knowing) that coaching changes tend to result in early season losses, for the reasons provided in that post. HOWEVER, my initial thought, as I try to see it through an opposing gameplanner's perspective, is that new coaches and schemes with ZERO actual NFL game film with their current teams present a unique and probably frustrating challenge: akin to scouting college talent, the gameplanners must predict and project how previous schematic and situational traits and performance will translate and develop in new circumstances. That seems far more worrisome, ahead of time, than how well the opponent will execute said plans in-game. NFL coaches and players thrive on studying their opponents' specific tendencies. They hate the unknown.

Dunning-Kruger reference on TBD? Outstanding. But in the golden age of entitled, self-promoting, unreflective blowhard grifters...why isn't Ryan flourishing?

This quote speaks to me.

Totally agree. I'm guilty of it myself. But then again, since the 2012/Mario Williams off-season, I've enjoyed some limited but unique access to internal goings-on with players, coaches, executives, etc., which encourages a more nuanced and subjective perspective on the team; sometimes positively and sometimes negatively. In large part, though, these are often impressive people who inspire confidence in those around them (results notwithstanding). I'll ask again because I'm genuinely interested: IF you were once less skeptical as a Bills fan, when i n the last 25+ years did you finally reach your tipping point with the team?

Two objectively AND subjectively solid posts in a row. Multiple opportunities to defecate on the Bills roster/depth and you kept it classy and forward-leaning. Moreover, I completely agree with your points. I'll bet you're really a savvy and funny guy "in real life," despite your persona here (and on the BBMB before that). I'll bet most "realist"/ toxic Buffalo fans were once hopeful and energetic supporters. Which disastrous decision or on-field debacle was most damaging for you? (I ask sincerely.) I've been hurt, too.

'Zo definitely lined up in the middle for a portion of the game (play #4 in the link shows one instance of this). Watch the man do it. He's good at it.

I think I agree with your negotiation of my previous points. Reasonable back-and-forth. Feels good.

I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here. Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019. But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film. Let's be reasonable?

Agree to an extent. Allen was dealing with early, disruptive pressure on too many plays. But no "cynical man" completely white washes Allen's issues setting protections, reading defenses pre- and post-snap, and seeing the whole field quickly. The OP really sweeps too much under last year's turf. But for the record, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic about his chances to improve.

Your eye for detail is appreciated here. Any high-functioning 4-3 defense needs on-field fluency from its MLB. That means a clear succession plan at the position. Stanford seemed to my limited eye to grow into that role last season. However, I will go to my grave believing that #57 Lorenzo Alexander can, in a pinch, play MLB at a HIGH level in the NFL. The 2018 wildcard playoff loss to JAX is my primary evidence to support this claim. https://www.buffalobills.com/video/top-5-lorenzo-alexander-plays-afc-wild-card-20215128

I hadn't added it up (thank you), but I was immediately thinking that his projected offensive roster is a little bloated/indulgent at the skill positions. I'd guess fewer WR(s) in favor of another DL, DB (or even a hard maybe on LB). Fans will thus worry over some interesting, albeit unproven, offensive players out there in the wind after cuts. It's a good "problem" to have, I say. My 21st century roster-building mantra: QB plus those paid to quarrel over him (TM). That's who REALLY matters. It's not a new idea.

Um...I'm not a mathematician, but what if he gets EXACTLY 9 sacks? That's neither over nine nor under nine, right?

Plans change. Right. Circumstances now dictate that Nsekhe might be best utilized a swing tackle, which he does quite well. The Bills can afford a highly paid swing guy with their cap situation. No sweat.

That backup line is probably a bloated use of roster spots, as Feliciano and Long both have C flex, making Bodine (who doesn't really play G--not a big, strong dude) expendable. If only one of our depth guards also had T flex, we could do away with a 4th T as well. I think nine linemen is the max we'll carry, eliminating Bodine. I could listen, albeit un-enthusiastically, to an argument for eight, even, with either Waddle or Spain being cut (as neither has position flex--that I know of). It's all about position versatility for oline backups. Just like it's often about special teams utility for WR/RB/TE/LB/DB backups. P.S. Sometimes I feel like an a-hole predicting cuts or critiquing players like this, when my 2nd job has me interacting and getting to know them, their families, and the staff (of PSE/Buffalo sports teams in general) fairly well over time. Bodine is a smart, cool guy. I wish him the best. (He's NOT very large by linemen standards, btw. Listed at 6'4" 311, which might be a bit generous for both measurements.)

Oddly enough, I have a similar concern. Against the run especially, Edmunds has never shown the physicality and playmaking ability that the NFL's best MLBs, even early in their careers, display regularly. He strikes me as more of a freak athlete who's pretty good at football, rather than a heckuva football player who happens to be a good athlete. 250 not heavy enough? I agree he has the frame for more mass, but I've not heard his weight used against him, until now.

It's interesting, through this lens, to look at the types of linebackers New England has fielded in recent memory: my immediate thought is that Belichick has had continued success with bigger bodies at LB (multiple 250+ guys). Hightower and Van Noy last season, Collins (who was an athletic freak), Mayo, and Spikes before that... All while the rest of the league gets lighter and faster and more pass-happy.

True. But so many of us have to be absent more often than we'd like to make ends meet. Brady has the means to make expensive arrangements to have his family closer to work during the very long NFL "season", if he so chooses. He's definitely earned the right to do as he pleases with respect to voluntary "off-season" workouts, but it's an issue with me that he does so for the same reasons that so many of his younger, less-established teammates share but cannot/should not indulge. I believe the more seniority, security, and salary an employee accrues, the more responsibility (moral/ethical) they have to lead by example. Not on behalf of their employers, but instead on behalf of their colleagues who are still grinding to carve out a stable living. So often, of course, it works out quite the opposite. All the way up the ladder.

For sure...but the on-field blame-displays DURING said plays is just really poor football character. I effing hate working with ego cases like that (in admittedly different circumstances).

I'm reading this a lot on this thread. Scuttlebutt is he got canned because he did NOT draft for need? That's kinda, like...backwards, yeah?

What if it's just a slender, crescent moon? And it pierces only some lame-ass, non-tax-dollar-generating land mass? Might be kinda cool...

Wait, what? Are you saying that last year Robert Foster and Levi Wallace were NOT examples of significant UDFA success?! And that Matt Milano, in his two years on the field, given his 5th round selection, has also not been an unanticipated success?! I'm not sure what you're saying here. Using the word "career" is a bit silly, sure. But the three players mentioned in your post have been wildly successful in relation to draft position, and frankly just in general. So their "careers" thus far have been successful by multiple measures: Analytics favor Wallace's coverage snaps last season. Gross statistical productivity shows Foster as a beast in the second half of the season. If you watch Bills football, then you've seen Milano flash often over the past two years (and you also watched the D lag a little after his injury).

I do NOT see Russell Bodine making the cut, barring injuries, mainly because Feliciano AND Long both have position flex AND ability that Bodine simply doesn't have. They are quality depth guys/borderline starters at OC AND OG, whereas Bodine is maybe barely serviceable depth at OC and definitely nothing more.

Poyer seems like a better-than-average player and teammate who maybe has some off-season/downtime demons. Probably not an uncommon blend of discipline and depravity (just more publicized due to social media and his relationship). Back in the day we'd never know about his personal business, or if we did, we'd be more ashamed to drag it into the light. I've witnessed firsthand some impressive consumption and some questionable behavior from professional athletes IN-SEASON; it's difficult to know how that will affect each individual, professionally. We've seen it work out a variety of ways with Bills players over the years.

Yeah, but then they'd be as miserable to read as you are. (Most of your points use sound judgement, by the way, being grounded in the observable reality of the past. But what a wet blanket you are in this context.)

THAT is an interesting analysis and conclusion. I'd kill to JA's stats in those same categories last season; something tells me our young QB, like Darnold (and probably even more so) ranks highly with respect to target/completion depth on 2nd- and 3rd-and-long. His efficiency numbers are where the progress must be made. But Josh Allen is nooooooo Ryan Tannehill, for sure.