SCBills

List of some of the speakers for MSG Usual suspects, until you get to the bottom.. Kill Tony 🤣🤣 Ok, Trump/Vance are on an absolute heater with under 50 male fixtures..

What a great closing argument… Zero joy, the entire campaign has become about rage and resentment.

Everyone talking about the Rogan/Trump podcast, but Tim Dillon just dropped yesterday with JD Vance, and it’s so much better.

Trump has quite a few glaring faults, but this comparison rings true, imo

She did best Trump in the debate, but please don’t be so partisan that you can’t acknowledge the stacked deck with the moderator interjections and questioning. She did well to bait Trump and I could not believe (well, I could) that Trump fell for it every time. In every high leverage moment since then, she’s been underwhelming. She can’t respond to a question without some ridiculous preamble that morphs into a non-answer.

Clark County mail came in overnight and Republicans INCREASED their lead…

What do you think her issue is then? Socially awkward? Fundamentally inarticulate? The moment is too big for her?

People thinking they’re getting a Beyoncé performance at a Harris event.. 0 for 2

No doubt! All we have is raw data and polls right now. Add those two together and it’s looking really good for Trump, however.. Kamala has consolidated Dem support better than Trump has consolidated R support. However, there are more registered R’s than D’s. On the flip side, Trump is eating away at her support from black men and could potentially win, outright, Latino voters. Trump won independents in 2016, but lost them in 2020. Kamala’s voters are high propensity voters.. unmarried career oriented white women & black women. They vote. Every. Election. Trump wins the popular vote if his supporters vote (men and married women), but he has a coalition counting on low propensity voters… aka Millennial and Gen Z men.

John Fetterman on Trump/PA

Sure.. that’s fair.. but her campaign was in negotiations with Rogan and pulled out. So, clearly, there was some impetus to do the podcast. And then they declined.

I don’t think Ralston, who leans left, is very bullish on that happening. It’s also a state to state variance. For instance, some of the calculus for the PA firewall some think puts her in a good position at 500k is due to historical trends of indies in PA breaking 70/30 for Dems. I don’t think anyone really has a clue where they’ll land this year though.

Rogan isn’t a gotcha interviewer. Hes not going to go into this trying to bait Harris and make her look bad. She should be able to have a free flowing conversation like a high functioning human being if she wants to be President. The Harris campaign was clearly in talks with Rogan about this and declined. I’ll give you one guess as to why? You and I both know it’s because they wanted guardrails on the discussion. She’s a joke. And anyone voting for her, instead of against Trump, is also a joke. I get detesting Trump so much that you’d vote for literally anyone. But she is literally anyone. An absolute moron who is wildly unqualified to be President, and her obsessively controlled campaign is evidence.

Jon Ralston is predicting, based on the EV data in Nevada and his connections in both campaigns, that Kamala Harris is going to need Independents to break for her by about 4-5% to have a chance at this point.

You mentioned low propensity.. and that’s the key. Trump wins if he turns out low propensity voters. Rogan’s audience is men, under the age of 50. Trump is obviously their choice, but he needs to stay top of mind to make sure they do what they normally don’t do as low propensity voters… and that is to take the time to go vote. The second part of going on Rogan for 3 hours is to hope some undecideds tune in for a bit and realize that he’s not Hitler reincarnate and is doing a long form discussion that the other choice is apparently incapable of doing.

Harris ads in Georgia right now are hilarious. Dudes in wrangler jeans, flannels and trucker hats talking about how Trump only cares about rich people. Country music twanging in the background.

If you check out the polls thread, I have a lot of breakdowns of the PA EV. Quick summation: Some Dems in PA who study data believe that they need a +500k firewall heading into Election Day. As of the most recent update, Dems are at about +373k with a current differential of D +132k in requested ballots outstanding. In recent days, R returns and requests have begun to slow the D numbers and it’s uncertain if they will hit, what is now, a best case scenario of +505k Biden had double that in 2020 but that was during Covid and we know Dems heavily relied on mail in vote. Since 2022, R’s have registered a couple hundred thousand new voters.. they are also low propensity voters. Will they turn out? Will they get to 500k? Is 500k enough? True toss up right now.

Trump, currently based on raw EV data, looks really good in NC, GA, AZ and NV. NV really only matters if Trump somehow wins NE-2 and loses all 3 rust belt swing states. That would trigger a tie. As it stands, Trump probably only needs to win one of the Rust Belt swing states or the longshot of Virginia or New Hampshire (which have some close polls coming out).

There are no pro-life candidates in this years election, Trump/Vance are as close as it gets and I’m open to compromise politically, but testimonies like this are why I will always be on the side of fighting for life..

Underrated, but Vance is going on Tim Dillon’s podcast as well.

Agreed.

Harris desperately needs the black vote turnout to be higher than this. I see some Dems in the comments pointing out the gender disparity, and I get that, but white women favor Trump in polling, and especially down South.

Surely Trump isn’t going to win Virginia… -WaPo refused to endorse -Polling shows a tight VA race -Dems attacking Youngkin over voter rolls Again, surely Trump isn’t going to win Virginia… but everyone seems to be acting like he can.