BigDingus

But, but, but... "Wait until next year to draft a QB! There's no sure-thing in this draft class!" is the favorite line of 95% of Bills fans come draft time. Year after year, they say next year's class is the one. Then the time comes, they get cold feet since they don't see the next Joe Montana, then decide failing to ever get a franchise QB but not drafting a bust, is better than trying to draft one at all, because hey, he might not be Tom Brady....so why even try? They fail to realize that eventually it'll get so bad, we get stuck NEEDING to draft a QB no matter what, and get stuck with someone like EJ Manuel as our only option because everyone sucks balls.

Everyone knew he'd have a good pro day & combine before either happened! It's rarer for a QB to NOT have a good pro day than to have one, considering they control & setup all the entire event. It's all a well choreographed show, and not even close to representative of being in-game. On the field, he's nowhere close to that good. Why don't you go back & look at what teams are in his division, and who he played against. Here's a hint, the other teams in his conference had the same types of players on their roster too, yet he still couldn't beat them or put up monster numbers! When all your competition has the same level of players, your excuse can't be "I have nobody around me to work with, that's why I'm bad!" The response to that is "well so did everyone else!"

The only way the Bills are interested in Rudolph is due to necessity and the Jets ruining their plans. Rudolph (or anyone outside of the big 3...yes, I'm not counting Josh Allen) was always going to be around, and the Bills were building & preparing since last draft to pick their guy THIS draft. They were obviously planning on Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield, and then with the offseason moves they've made, positioned themselves to move up & grab them. The Jets ruined that, so NOW they're interested in Rudolph or Jackson.

They shouldn't.

AND, keep in mind, Prior to this trade, it was likely only 1 QB would be taken in the top 3, meaning we could grab the #4 slot & comfortably get "our guy." Cleveland also knew this. They didn't HAVE to take a QB #1 overall, and could also rest on their laurels knowing they could select at #4 a QB. They could grab a RB #1, the Giants grab not a QB at #2, the Colts grab not a QB at #3 & then at #4, the Browns get their pick of the litter. Now this forces Cleveland's hand if they really have their hearts set on 1 particular guy. They don't want the Jets to draft him, so they're forced to grab a guy at #1, the Jet's get their guy at #3, and the Bills either get stuck with the 3rd guy left at #4, or are forced to trade away a King's Ransom to trade with the Giants & get ahead of the Jets.... None of this looks good.

Thanks for the spot, had it written down next to me but forgot to add it. Will edit

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft. That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting. Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

Not that we need yet another thread discussing how the Jets potentially "screwed" us, but I wanted to go into the draft point value of the trade & what the Bills could've (or should've) offered, and what was actually thought to be needed in the first place to trade with the Colts. According to the NFL Draft Value Chart (Walter Football - http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php ), the Colts #3 overall pick was worth 2,200 points. The Jets traded them: #6 (1st Rd) = 1,600 points #37 (2nd Rd) = 530 points #49 (2nd Rd) = 410 points Undisclosed 2nd next year (between 270-580) Total: 2,540 points (confirmed) We were projected to have to trade both our 1st rounders, and a combination of either of our 2nd & 3rd round picks. For example, we could've traded: #12 (1st Rd) = 1,200 points #22 (1st Rd) = 780 points #56 (Our later 2nd Rd pick) = 340 points #65 (3rd Rd) = 265 Total: 2,585 points That would give us a 1st round pick (#3 overall), our better 2nd round pick (#53), a 3rd round pick (#96), and a 4th, 5th & 6th round pick remaining. In other words, we'd still have a full regular lineup of draft picks, 1 in each round with the exception of the 7th. To have a full lineup of draft picks AND have your choice of QB's, at least 1 of which the Bills Management clearly wants, is a great situation to be in regardless of "but we COULD do ____ with more picks!" Sure, we "could" do some other things, but 99% of the time teams are happy going into a draft with a full lineup of picks and not short from dumb trades (see: 2015 Bills draft where we had 0 picks until #50 overall, then only had a 3rd, a 5th, two 6th's & a 7th). Edit: I forgot to add the Bills obviously could offer picks/players/etc. that could compensate for the Jets' 2019 pick that there's no way to evaluate yet. It's done quite often in trades for picks anyway, so freeing up a mid round pick or player isn't some absurd price. So what then was Beane offering? My guess is he was offering both the 1st rounders, and the 3rd acquired from the Browns (2,245 points), and wouldn't budge on anything else. Hell, maybe he was feeling he was on a hot streak, wheeling & dealing with everything going his way and tried to get over on them in terms of point value....offering both 1sts & a 4th or something. Either way, it certainly has thrown a wrench in Beane's plans, because regardless of what anyone WANTS us to do, it's clear the Front Office was setting themselves up to trade into the top 4, and now another QB hungry team has placed themselves ahead of us.

I just don't think he CAN do it in games... His game log looks pretty unimpressive. In 2017, against the only 2 big teams he played, he went - Iowa: 23/40 - 174 yards, 0 TD's, 2 INT's, 57.5% Comp. Oregon: 9/24 - 64 yards 0 TD's, 1 INT, 37.5% Comp. But hey, against, Gardner-Webb he was 22/32 for 328 yards, 2 TD's & 0 INT's.... (and it was his only 300 yard game). For someone who played in the Mountain West, having only a 56.3% completion percentage % throwing for only 16 TD's, while averaging 164 yards a game is not impressive at all. His combine can be look as good as ever, but that rarely means a QB can suddenly play well in the NFL.

He's really not though.. He's rated low on every chart. NFL.com's draft profiles have him as the worst, and this one - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/quarterbacks/ has him ranked the 6th best QB prospect... Everywhere I search, he's bottom of the barrel in terms of top names, and even when breaking down by skill set, he's ranked dead last in nearly every category except for arm strength & mobility.

Here we go, this page shows all of their picks - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft/ Pete Prisco has the Bills taking Josh Allen at #3 Brady Quinn has the Bills taking Josh Allen at #2 Will Brinson has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1 Chris Trapasso has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1 RJ White has the Browns taking Josh Allen at #1 Ryan Wilson has the Giants taking Josh Allen at #1 So wtf happened that shot Josh Allen up to #1? Look at his game log, he's not good against good teams, and has a mid 50% accuracy with ok numbers.

Multiple mocks have Allen now a top 3 QB, potentially even #1 overall (like the 2nd link I posted). My question is why, and are there rumblings the Bills are targeting him that I've missed?

http://cbsprt.co/2HCCmDV The video has Brady Quinn's mock with the Bills moving up to take Allen 2nd overall... I've been under the impression that Allen was a mid-round talent that could drop even further since he's so raw, and basically just has the prototypical QB "look," without the accolades & accomplishments to go with it. Why would anyone TRADE UP to grab him? Maybe trade down, but into the top 3 and #2 overall?! The old Bills regimes were known for a few reaches, but this would be an even riskier one. Is there any talk of us having our sights set on him? Granted it's just one mock, but we've seen this show before. A QB who's average-above average but with the look and size moves up not based on his on-field play, but his measurements/combine/pro-day/etc. as the draft gets closer. Really hoping there isn't a bigger thing going on behind the scenes here where people from OBD are lapping up Allen's "ceiling" & media members are catching wind of this. Thankfully, this mock also by CBS Sports has us moving up to #3 & grabbing Darnold (who's actually the highest rated by NFL.com draft profile of any QB the past several years) - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-bills-trade-up-into-top-five-for-qb-saquon-barkley-drops/ and looks more realistic. Oddly, it also has Allen ranked high, this time at #1 overall. According to NFL.com, Allen is rated a 6.01, Mayfield a 6.03, Rosen a 6.19, and Darnold a 7.0. Why are teams so enamored with Allen?

Hey, we had many good posters over there! We're not all this naive.

We improved the biggest need outside of QB with Lotulelei, before FA officially even started. We signed a CB in Vontae Davis that's far better than EJ Gaines, is still only 29, and even though he was injured last year, would be an improvement even at 70% of his ability (keep in mind how often Gaines was injured last year too). Shored up the RB spot with a former starter in Chris Ivory, a person who will be a massive upgrade over Mike Tolbert. Resigned pieces like Kyle Williams & Nick O'leary, who although aren't "great," are still solid pieces that all teams need to have on their roster. Do we still need some pieces? Yes. But what people would you suggest are "must-haves" that we NEED virtually signed & tendered before FA even begins? FA was never supposed to be where we make a big splash anyway, as Beane & Co. have stated time & time again their strategy is building through the draft....And nobody can deny they have set themselves up masterfully to do just that this year.

That's another thing. These guys clearly know what they're doing. I've never seen a Bills front office look SO competent, and agree with every trade or signing they've swung. The ONLY one that looked bad (and still looks not like a definite "win") is the Dareus trade. Yes, I know his contract was huge & not worth the production, but the box stats never reflected how important he was to the team & the run defense in particular. He also allowed others on the line to play to a much higher level, and considering what we got for Tyrod, it's hard to imagine we couldn't get more than a 6th round pick (and not an early 6th either). Yes, Tyrod is a QB, and that's a huge factor as to why we netted a 3rd (practically a 2nd) for him. But every team knew he was on his way out, and that we only picked up his next year contract to trade him. So other than the Dareus trade, everything from last year's trade out of the 10th slot to get another 1st in 2018, to drafting Tre White, to entirely revamping the secondary, to getting value from Watkins, to moving up to 12th with Glenn, picking up Vontae Davis, now getting Lotulelei, etc. it's safe to say they know wtf they're doing....and whatever QB they want is going to be damn good if developed right & put in a GOOD system for him to succeed.

Now we just need to sign Suh & D-line fixed lol

Bingo! They try to "play it safe" year after year by just dismissing everyone. Those are the same people who check & fold on every poker hand until they have a guaranteed flush. Everything doesn't have to be a flush to be good or even great. There are guys almost every single year that come in & show everyone how wrong they were. Teams that hit on a QB either get really lucky, or they take a risk. Sitting back year after year & saying "wait until next year when _________ comes out" only for that year to come & then get cold feet is ridiculous.

Most teams are lucky to have 1 stud receiver... 2 stud receivers? There just aren't many of those tandems anymore, but yeah, it'd be cool to have as long as they had someone decent throwing to them.

Darnold is the highest rated QB via NFL.com's draft profile's by a significant margin this year, and I'm in love with the Bills being in love with Darnold

People who are now acting like there are no worthy QB's in this year's draft are insane. The 2018 QB class is just as good, if not better than any in the last 5+ years Hindsight is 20/20, and going into each year's draft every QB had question marks. For reference, NFL.com's draft grades are Rosen - 6.19, Mayfield - 6.03, and Darnold - 7.0. In 2017, we had - Trubisky (6.31), Mahomes (5.87), Watson (5.98) & Kizer (5.78). Yes, Watson lit it up, but he was selected #12, as many teams didn't believe in him. There was not a "sure thing" in this draft. In 2016, we had - Jared Goff (6.51), Carson Wentz (6.53) & Paxton Lynch (6.17). Both Goff & Wentz had plenty of red flags, just look at pre-draft & post draft grades on players. Goff was said to be a "C-" and "has shown absolutely no signs that he can be a professional QB" by Walter Football. PFF said Wentz has "concerns with timing, accuracy, and ability to make plays under pressure." Again, no "sure thing," in this draft. In 2015, we had - Jameis Winston (6.7) & Marcus Mariota (6.27). They've both been up & down in the NFL, and both have been a mixed bag of success & failure. Yup, no "sure thing" once again. In 2014, we had - Blake Bortles (6.22), Johnny Manziel (6.12), and Teddy Bridgewater (6.15). Bortles has been pretty bad until this year, Manziel was a train wreck, and Bridgewater still hasn't done anything. Aaaand again, don't see a "sure thing" here. In 2013, we had EJ Manuel....That's it for 1st round QB's. Yup, what a mistake it was to grab a QB in THIS draft. Point being, EVERY year there's 0 guarantees, and at some point you have to take a guy. Everyone has question marks, and everyone can be boom or bust. All of these guys including the 3 listed for 2018 are graded in the same range. What matters is selecting YOUR guy, and sticking by & developing them correctly. There will almost certainly be at least ONE hit QB this year, & the Bills are looking to be that team. Going into last draft, everyone said "just wait until 2018 to grab a QB, that'll be a loaded draft!" Now as the 2018 draft looms closer, fans get their typical cold feet (fortunately, they aren't the ones in charge) and comment to "wait until next draft!" Kicking the can down the road year after year is an exercise in stupidity. If they end up drafting the next Wentz or Watson, the trade up is worth it. If they grab the next Manziel, Bortles or Lynch, it was a failure. If they grab the next Mariotta or Winston, they could be right in the middle. Either way, this draft is as good as any, and Andrew Luck's only come around once in a blue moon. Waiting for the stars to align to get someone like that isn't feasible, and is part of the reason it took 18 years & Andy Dalton to get them to the playoffs. I'd love to see the Bills get Darnold, although I still find it unlikely. However, each passing day it seems more & more possible with the moves Beane & Co. are making, so I'm not dismissing the idea anymore. Whoever they grab, I just hope they do it with the intention of letting them work out their issues, play through their mistakes & put them in a position to succeed instead of destroying their confidence & stifling their development.

Perhaps, but putting in the legwork now allows them to see who is a realistic trade partner and what their baseline demands are.

Wheeling and dealing! Loving every trade so far, and today just solidifies we ARE getting the QB we want this draft. No doubt about it. If Beane likes one guy in specific, expect him to move heaven and hell to acquire him.

I picked Rudolph, only because I would hate the Bills drafting him, therefore they're definitely drafting him.

Yeah, and cut our long snapper too... you know those are in cahoots together, those scheming f***s! Would've been smooth sailing to the Super Bowl if it weren't for those 2 *punting* the game away!