Mat68

Every year his numbers dip in December. ***** weather in Buffalo contributes. He will have big games but the offense will not be dependent on it. Having a balanced attack will do for him what it has for many great qb. Less turnovers. More sustained drives will off set the less explosive more risky plays. Brees and Manning both went through similar dynamics. He plays like he did in the playoffs the offense and Allen will be fine. Passing yards are not a measure of success. Who was the last super bowl winning qb to lead the league in yards?

Add in Kelce is going to be 35. Last season 120 targets 98 catches and 980 yards 5 Tds. Very good season for a Te. I think in a vacuum many peoples expectation for Kincaid are higher than that. I think Kincaid could match or surpass any or all of those metrics. I think Coleman has the potential to be very good. If he is the conversation at wr ends.

I think his yards and TDs are relatively the same. His ints are cut by half and the national perception around him changes.

Chiefs and Packers really regret trading their top 5 wrs. I think Buffalo was late to the party. Extending him was the wrong decision. Diggs souring on the organization aside.

He is wr 4 or 5. If he wasnt getting paid 10 mil per year he would still be with KC. He is better than any wr 4 Buffalo has had in a while. Has more speed outside than anyone since Jon Brown. MVS is a role player. Down the field he is pretty productive. Using him more underneath doesnt make him more efficient similar to Davis. The playoff game vs KC is the point. 2 similar throws and plays. Sherfield was not able to make the play. MVS did and has multiple times. He isnt coming in to have 1,000 yards and 10 tds he is being brought in to do what he has done his career.

Curious where Shakir and Kincaid rank in targets. With both player recieving more usage there numbers will improve. In terms of Te Kincaid is projected to be a top 5 TE. Coleman is projected by many to be a top 30 wr. Last year Kelce had 980 yards and Rice had 935. I dont find it hard to believe for Shakir or Coleman to get to that. Kelce 98 catches for 980 and 5 tds is not out of the range of outcomes for Kincaid. I know it is projection but that is what it always is.

An extra step is the difference from 4.5 to 4.4.

In a deep Wr class they drafted one they liked early. Signed a career #2 wr in Samuel and think they have a real player in Shakir. Wr 4,5,6 on every team is a crap shoot. Hollins, Claypool and MVS have been wr 2 and 3 before in their careers. Compared to KC and Baltimore the Bills skill positions are in a similar position as both.

Brady and the offense need to rely on Allen to do Allen things less than 5 times a game. The vast majority of the game needs to be schemed up. Too often over the last few years with Dabol and Dorsey it was close to half.

MVS is Davis at a fraction of the price. Coleman likely is given the snaps and targets Davis offered. MVS is competent in the deep threat role if needed. Coleman offers more than both imo. The gamble is do they have enough? I think they believe they do. Time will tell but Cook, Shakir, and Kincaid are entering years 3,3 and 2 and they are going with the gamble they will improve to level that they dont need someone taking targets from them. 24 offseason or likley mid season I can see move if it hasn't worked out.

When you trade for a player you get the contract as it is. That has to fit the current cap situation. Once here the contract can be changed but the contract being acquired is the one he signed. The Diggs trade is made with the belief that… 1. Diggs is no longer a top 10 receiver and Buffalo is paying him like he is for the next 3 years. 2. The compensation offered from Houston will be the highest he will garner going forward. 3. Shakir in a primary role can do a lot of the things Diggs offered down the stretch last season. 4. Diggs was not going to accept a reduced target share. 160 targets was not happening and Diggs was already campaigning for his usage to match the first half of 2023 vs the second half of the season. The sum of it all is why they made the trade. Shakirs potential, the ability to add a solid prospect in the draft and addition of Samuel made the trade something Buffalo could swallow. Diggs wanted out so Monday through Saturday improvement greatly. Sunday they feel they have enough on offense to mitigate his absence. Adding Ayuik, or Higgins wasnt part of it. You could add Debo or Hopkins but I dont see the difference makers they once were and the cost wouldn't match what you were getting.

MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster are vying for the scraps. MVS and Hollins are better wrs than Harty and Sherfield. Hamler and Claypool offer more potential though neither have an expectation of playing or being on the roster. I dont expect them being able to afford the contract of Ayuik, Metcalf, or Adams. Eating the amount of salary to get under the 10 mil post June 1st would likely require a 1st. Thats a road I dont see Beane and Buffalo going. 24 Kincaid will be the primary target. Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will receive 90% of the wr targets.

I see it as take Diggs 160 targets split between Samuel and Shakir. Most of Davis to Coleman. The remainder of targets to MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster. Kincaid and Cook likely see more too. I think Kincaid is the only guy with over 100 targets. Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will relatively have a similar share. Not one wr is replacing Diggs. I think Shakir is highly thought of in the organization and Samuel could have a career year playing with far and away his best qb. It’s not the greatest show on turf. It also is not the 2018 wr core. I think its better than 2019 and with Kincaid and Cook make it an above average group.

It is where football is trending. Last 4 drafts have been the “deepest” wr draft until the next one. Wr are becoming as easy to find as Rbs. Diggs prolific career in Buffalo never produced playoff success. Moving to a balanced attack with a run game that has to be respected fueled the late season run. Moving to a balanced passing attack also contributed to this. Having Diggs would have been great. However, listening to his interviews after the season he is tone deaf on why his usage changed. He was getting force fed targets and the offense was inefficient. Let Allen read the defense and take whats available. Shoehorning targets for this player or that isn't effective.

MVS and OBJ have similar production over the last 6 years. MVS is a better deep threat and healthier.

They lost due to defensive depth and the lack there of. Stayed the course with an old defensive core that hobbled down the stretch. Poyer, Hyde, White, Jones, and Miller were either hurt, hobbled or ineffective. They had to pivot from that and did. Jones was the most effective and financially did the best they could with Miller.

As many as it takes. Oliver, Rousseau, and Bernard are 3 of the best players on the defense and all were day 1 and 2 picks.

Shorter is a traits guy who could be a core special teamer and maybe develop into a Hollins type player and career. If he struggles on teams his career will end abruptly. My point was they already had that player on the roster with Shakir. He passed both vetrans brought in. It was on Shorter to pass Sherfield which he was not able to do. Thats why you mix veterans and rookies. Without Sherfield, Shorter is on the roster and would have been a disaster imo. Lesser the route runner and special team player.

They drafted Shakir in that range the year prior and is going to be a big part of the offense. He passed both on the roster last season and positioned for a primary role. Id argue if Diggs was injured similar to Kupp and Watson Shakir would have made a much larger impact last season. Nacua and Wicks production was tied to injury creating the opportunity for increased target share.

This. Main thing is the Bills feel comfortable with Kincaid as the primary read and focal point of the passing game. Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will be Wr getting most of the target share. Buffalo feels comfortable with this. They like Coleman and Shakirs potential. The Superbowl Champions primary weapons. Kelce, Pacheco, Rice, Watson and MVS. Kincaid, Cook, Shakir, Coleman and Samuel is much worst? Kelce is turning 35, Rice missing time, Hollywood Brown, and Worthy doesnt blow your doors off. Buffalo does not have the top skill grouping in the NFL. In its totality they are middle of the road.

Only roster locks are Coleman, Samuel and Shakir. I think Hollins and MVS are safely ahead of the rest. Shorter, Shavers, Hamler, Isabella, Cephus and Claypool all have unique paths to the roster if they maximize their roles and ability. Not overly inspiring but bottom 3 roster spots will be more highly contested than in years past. Harty, Mckenzie, Sherfield haven't faced this level of competition. All three would be lumped in this same group and would struggle to separate themselves.

Buffalo paying 1/3 the price for the role he played in KC? Bad how? Kc paid him to be there wr 1 or 2. Buffalo is paying him to be wr 4 or 5

Rasheed Rice is significantly better than Shakir, Sanders or Coleman? I dont see it.

When you compare it to Baltimore and KC it is fine. Kincaid needs to improve and will be the primary pass catcher. Then you have Shakir and Sanders with Coleman growing into the role. More he can do the more he will get. MVS, Hollins, Claypool, Hamler or whatever camp body you want to add will make up the bottom of the room. MVS and Hollins made a career out of this role in a wr room. Like most positions on the roster under Beane. Hollins and MVS are the floor. If any of the boom or bust guys boom they replace either. This is not Zay Jones, Andre Holmes, Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay bad. Very much NO Saints Prime Brees vibes. Kincaid in the Colston/Graham role. Coleman can frequent the Michael Thomas role at times. James Cook getting an expanded role in the passing game like Bush and Kamara. Now where in the NFL did Brady get his coaching start? New Orleans under Sean Payton.

Probably not. Has the athletic profile but no elite production. Was on the offense with a top 10 Qb prospect and didn't really produce. Maybe he puts it all together. More likely he is an elite trait core special teamer.