Shaw66

McD made it sound like the Bill's keep those stats, and the pressure stat is more important to them.

That's right. McD was very interesting on the subject. It sounds like they track and rely on QB pressures. He likes sacks, but pressures is what he wants. The more pressures, the more opportunities for other guys to make plays.

Mr. Vader Thanks for your kind comments. I appreciate them. Your response gives me a chance to say more about what I'm thinking. I don't think you've raised anything that is an impediment to greatness. I will say, for example, that I never have believed that the City of Buffalo is an impediment to recruiting top talent. I get that it's far from glamorous, it's cold, and there are New York State taxes to deal with. I get that. But listen to McDermott. He and Beane are building a roster full of players who don't care about any of that. Boston is cold, taxes are high, and unless you're ultra-liberal or spending 60 hours a week in the library at Harvard or MIT is your idea of a great time, Boston isn't your town. Green Bay gets its share of players. Pittsburgh. McBeane are building a team that players will want to be a part of. A team that wins (that's the most important part), a team where players are respected, a team with great owners. If a player doesn't want to play for the Bills, or wants a premium to move to Buffalo, he isn't the kind of player McBeane wants. Plus, to move on to the draft and free agency, Beane isn't looking for the top talent in free agency. He fills holes in free agency; he gets his talent in the draft. He IS doing what the Pats do in free agency - he's collecting solid players with the right competitive instincts - like Hogan. The only top talent that the Pats regularly go after in free agency is shut-down corner. Beane is certainly not stupid. When the roster is put together the way they want it, which I think means after this season or definitely after next season, Beane's going to be smart about the occasional big ticket free agent. But remember, that isn't generally their plan. When the Bills write a big check for a free agent, in most cases it's going to be for THEIR OWN free agent. Their objective is draft talent and keep it, not get it in free agency. The fans aren't perfect, but they're great. What makes Buffalo stand out is that it seems that a higher percentage of the population is serious fans than almost anyplace else. The whole city is engaged with the team, even over all these years of mediocrity and worse. They CARE about the team, and it's obvious to the players. They all comment on it, including players who don't play for the Bills. The fans are an asset that McBeane obviously are selling to players. McDermott wants his players to understand that it's a PRIVILEGE to play for fans like they have. Most cities have fair-weather fans or worse. Not Buffalo. But the linchpin of my optimistic view is the continuous improvement philosophy. I am not by any means an expert in the philosophy, but I get the core elements. McDermott has explained it several times. The fundamental requirement for a successful continuous improvement environment is to have the organization populated with people who are committed to it. That's why McBeane say that they don't care about a player's physical gifts if he isn't an intense competitor and isn't committed to working at getting better every day. The core operating idea is to evaluate, set objectives, work to meet the objectives, evaluate, set objectives, etc. - forever. Always looking to get better. You do that by internalizing whatever vest practices you develop along the way. So, for example, someone commented about McDermott's success on challenges. It hasn't been good. I am certain that in the team's evaluation of him they have identified challenges as something to improve. And they don't just talk about it - they analyze how they make decisions, they study how others do it, they develop procedures to follow, they implement the procedures, and they see if their challenges improve. Your comments about the draft and free agency point to the same thing. McDermott looks at his team, sees that there's something missing in terms of talent, chemistry, whatever, and he tells Beane. McD, Beane and their coaches and scouts look at the system and figure out why they aren't filling that kind of need and what they need to do to fill it. I expect their draft philosophy and techniques will continue to improve, because they will examine the philosophy and technique all the time and improve it. I've said elsewhere that they are doing what Belichick does. They are. They aren't exactly copying him - it's clear that McDermott's commitment to family, to personal connection with his players is something that isn't such an important part of the Belichick model - but they're generally doing the same things. One of the strengths of the Patriots is that they've used the same core offense and core defense for 20 years. It doesn't change. It's based on fundamental football principles and not on gimmicks or fads. By building that way, the Patriots can tweak it from year to year and now from game to game without rewriting the playbook. It's easiest to see on defense, and McDermott's defense has the same characteristic. Out of the Bills basic 4-3, with personnel who fit the defense, McDermott can do whatever he wants. He can rush three, he can rush six or seven. He can commit safeties all over the field. The benefit of this aspect of what the Pats do and the Bills are building is that continuous improvement becomes possible. What the defense did in 2008 to respond to trends in the league becomes part of the playbook and part of the DNA of the defense - the players in 2010 know it, not because they're playing the way it was played in 2008, but it's part of the system. The players in 2012 are better at playing the defense than the players in 2008 because they've learned the 2008 wrinkles AND the 2010 wrinkles. The players teach each other, and the team keeps getting better. The Bills want to build through the draft because they can pull their rookies up to their level and build from their. Jerry and Star are going to teach Oliver a lot this summer, and the Bills are going to expect him to absorb a lot of it. If they've done their homework on Oliver correctly, he will thrive on the opportunity to learn and get better. A couple years ago I heard someone describe how Brady and his OC were preparing for particular opponent, and one of them said "when they're in that defense, what would work would be that play we put in for the Jets about ten years ago. The next day, they show the play to the offense - an offense based on all the same principles as 2008, and - VOILA! - they had the answer on how to attack this week's opponent. Continuous improvement and continuity made that possible. And continuity comes from drafting and keeping players, and constantly teaching the younger players what the veterans know. Sorry, long-winded answer, even for me, but that's what I see happening. Does Beane get free agency completely right? No, but every year he gets better. Does he get the draft right? No, but every year he gets better. Does McD get every coaching decision right? No, but every year he gets better. A continuous improvement environment makes things better and better. Toyota proved it. AND - the Bills now have a physically gifted QB with brains who is completely, totally on board with this system. He's working daily to pile knowledge on top of knowledge in his brain. He really wants it, he wants to do it right, and he believes he's being led in the right direction. And he doesn't seem to have an ego that's going to get in the way. He knows he has to be the man, but being the man isn't his personal objective. What he wants to do is win, and if winning comes from handing the ball off 45 times, he's gonna do it. Continuous improvement is going to put the Bills on top.

What is it that you see in the present organization that you think would keep them from becoming a great franchise? Me. Wilson wasn't a great owner. Rex wasn't ever going to be a great coach. Fitzpatrick never was going to be a star QB. Whaley wasn't a Hall of Fame GM. I don't see any weak links now. McD isn't a great coach yet, but he has time to grow. He's had some success already, and he is determined. Beane and Allen look like winners, and the Pegulas have impressed me. What do see that makes you think this combination is unlikely to become historically great? What franchises do you think are better set up for an impressive decade?

Of course, I've just predicted that the Bills will reach the absolute pinnacle. I suppose it's fair to call it overoptimistic. Nevertheless, that's where I think we're headed.

I could argue with various points here, but it's generally correct. I'm not saying anything different. I'm not saying Allen is going to be a miracle worker. I'm not saying the line will be all-star or TE will became a strength rather than a weakness. What I'm saying is this team is getting better and will continue to get better, year after year. And I think it's quite simple: right owners, right GM, right coach, right QB. The rest is just blocking and tackling to improve the level of play, year to year, and to improve the level of talent. And talent doesn't mean superstars - it means very good football players committed to the process. That's the plan, and I believe it will work as they planned. I think Allen will be a top 15 QB this season and top 5 within three seasons.

Thanks for clarifying. I've gotten to the point where I don't worry about weaknesses. Are the Bills weak at tight end? With the injury, sure. Do I mind? No. Can't fix everything in a day, and the Bills will keep working at it and fix it. Might they have gone a different direction in free agency and/or the draft regarding tight end? Sure. Do I mind? No. They'll get to it. Their objective is for EVERY position to improve EVERY year, and they aren't going to forget about the tight end. That's why I say they could be better or worse than I expect in the next year or two, but however long it takes they will get better from year to year. In five years they'll have a top 5 quarterback and a top 5 defense. Why am I so sure? For the reasons I gave - the right owners, the right GM, the right coach, the right quarterback. They're all going to grow in their jobs, because that's the objective they've set for themselves. Everything about the franchise is getting better. Someone commented about the quality of the video on BuffaloBIlls.com getting better. Relations with the media are better. Facilities are better. Food services for the team are better. Most importantly, as someone mentioned, team culture is better. They're building an environment where players will want to be a part of. They keep talking about what a privilege it is to play for this fan base. They talk about family. They talk about excellence. They talk about winning the right way. This is going to be a perennial Super Bowl contender, like the Saints and the Chiefs and the Pats. Only the Pats get there year after year, but virtually every year since the hurricane New Orleans has been talked about as a contender. Why? Ownership, coach, quarterback, fan base. And I don't think anyone is leaving. The Pegulas are in for the long haul. They'll pay Beane whatever it takes to keep him, and they'll pay McDermott too. And Beane will pay Allen whatever it takes to keep him. Because of the culture they're building, I think they ALL will stay for less than they might be able to demand, because they all will understand that that isn't consistent with the process - they want the entire team to get better continuously, and part of that is having money to spend on other players. That's why Brady takes only what he takes. They all will see that even at reduced pay, they all will retire as very rich men, richer than they ever need. Allen will get paid more than Beane and McDermott, but Beane and McDermott will make millions a year for 20 years. (Think about it: Allen knows today that five years from now he's getting $30 million a year, and he'll be able to do that for 10 years. After taxes and a VERY comfortable lifestyle, he'll have $100 million saved. McDermott knows that he's going to be making $10 million a year for 20 years; Beane something similar. They are all going to know that they are part of the best franchise, with best record and with the best owners; they aren't going to care about squeezing the last dollar out of contract negotiations.) Believe it. It's all sitting there before our eyes, right now.

One of the greats, in every way. Every man wanted his son to be like Bart Starr. A winner and a gentleman. Our thoughts are with you and all Packer fans.

Thanks, but your post completely 9gnores what I said. The NFL is not set up for dynasty runs. The Patriots prove up wromg, and Andy Reid is evidence that it's possible for others to do it. He hasn't gotten over the too, but his teams are almost always good. McDermott learned from Reid. 1. When Belichick was McDermott's age, no one was saying B I ll is the greatest coach of all time. They were running him out of Cleveland. 2. As I said, I think Allen will be great. And as I said, he and McD are a perfect match. Of course today they don't look like they can compete with Brady and Belichick. Give 'em ten years. 3. Patriots beat EVERYONE. They have a BETTER RECORD against the rest of the league than they have against the AFC east. They would be spotted 6 wins in almost any division. 4. Allen may very well be willing to be paid below the market. You don't know that yet. And the Patriots would still win if they paid Brady $30 million. All you've said is that the Bills today are not the Patriots. I didn't say they were. I said they are building to geeatness, and you gave no reason why they can't. The whole point of the process is to identify areas of weakness and improve them. It applies to McDermott too. His on field performance is evaluated like everything else, and a process is put in place to improve it if necessary. If you ask McDermott, he will tell you he will be a much better head coach, in all aspects of his job, five yeare from now, because he intends to study, evaluate and improve all aspects.

Illness. Yes. Wonderful. Yes.

I think you can bet on Allen. I just think he has all the parts. He wants it. He studies. He's a great athlete. And he has a coach who is perfect for him. I think NFL will be talking about him this season, and I think he'll be a premier QB within five years. Remember, it's continuous improvement. His line will get better and his receivers will get better. He'll get better. It's going to be awesome.

I think he was the best athlete on the team until Tyrod showed up. Some people say Tyrod is the best athlete they've ever seen. Kyle was a great football player. Did you see the video of McDermott introducing Kyle when he announced his retirement to the team? McDermott said the first time he ever saw Kyle was at the Pro Bowl when McDermott was one of the coaches. He said Kyle stood out as an athlete and a worker. He said it meant a lot to him to get a chance to coach Kyle in Buffalo. High praise.

Yes, McCoy is a bit of a feast or famine runner. He has a lot of runs that go for no gain. He needs a hole to work with. He had none last year. Gore wouldn't have done much with the Bills last season. His style is similar to Ivory's, and Ivory could get nothing last season, either.

He wasn't the same runner after injuries, whether the surgery was necessary or not. I don't know where you get these stats, but LeVeon Bell must lead the league in time behind the line scrimmage. He just waits and waits. So time behind the line of scrimmage isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are styles and there are styles. \ I think the Bills have two smart, savvy runners with different styles, two guys who want to win. And two decent young backups. I like it.

He's only 36? I thought he was old.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 “The Hopeless Optimist” I know I’m probably heading for a big crash, but I can’t help it: I think the golden age of the Buffalo Bills is upon us. I think we are about to witness the greatest run of excellence in the history of the franchise, and one of the greatest of all time in the NFL. Maybe it’s just because I’ve lived a long life and been fortunate to have had a lot of good things happen around me. About the only good thing that hasn’t happened is true greatness for my football team. I was there for the AFL championships and the Super Bowls. Now it’s time to go all the way. Whatever the reason, I can’t talk myself out of believing the Bills are about to take off. It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that. It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming. “WHAT??!!! You can’t be serious,” readers scream. I’m serious. I’m serious for the combination of several reasons. 1. The Process I keep listening to McDermott and Beane, learning about what they are doing. If I understand it, I think it will work to build a team that is a powerhouse for many seasons. It’s about continuous improvement, getting better at your job. McDermott says it over and over. Get better every day. That’s why they want rookies. They want the benefit of a football player for ten years, getting better year after after year. Part of the genius of that system is that new guys get pulled up to level of the rest of the team pretty quickly. When the team is playing at a good level, rookies come in and learn quickly to play at the good level. When the team is great, rookies come in and learn to play at the great level. McDermott saw Andy Reid do it, and he’s watched Bill Belichick do it. Everyone is challenged to get better, game after game, season after season. Players are challenged. Coaches are challenged, too. McDermott is expected to improve. Daboll is expected to improve. Frazier. Everyone. If you aren’t working to improve, you aren’t part of the process. No player is guaranteed a job, and every player knows that he will sit or worse as soon as someone comes along who does it better. And the players are happy with that, because they understand they are part of a bigger process. If they’ve worked hard and made the team better, they will share in the team’s future success, because they were part of building the platform from which it all took off. I guarantee that when McDermott wins a Super Bowl in Buffalo, Kyle Williams will know that he owns a part of that trophy. Continuous improvement. 2. The Coach My apologies to the lifelong atheists in the crowd, but there’s no way to describe McDermott except in religious terms. He’s organizing a cult, with avid followers who get high on the Word. It’s his personal version of The 300, with everyone doing his job, doing anything, for the benefit of everyone else, with a little of Andy of Mayberry wholesome goodness thrown it. He practices what he preaches. He’s about doing the right thing all the time, preparing, learning, communicating. He lives in a world where everyone earns what he gets, and everyone understands why they sometimes don’t get what they tried to earn. He expects a Lombardi Trophy and nothing less, and he understands that if he doesn’t get it, someone else better will get the job. And he’s okay with that. He imposes that world on his players, and he expects them to be okay with it, so he must be okay with it, too. He cares about everyone in his organization, and he wants everyone in the organization to care, too. Was there an element of commercialism in how McDermott and the Bills adopted PanchoBilla in his final weeks? Sure. But there was genuine caring and concern, too, and there was genuine grief at the end. Is McDermott perfect? No. Does he make mistakes? Plenty. But it’s about continuous improvement, learning and getting better very day. He WILL get better, because he won’t accept less from himself. And don’t forget, he took his first head coaching job at about the same age as Bill Belichick, and Belichick made mistakes for years before he hit his stride. McDermott is growing into greatness. McDermott does it right, and by doing it right, those around him do it right, too. 3. The GM I just love Beane. I love his calculating approach to his job. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move on. Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move one. No wasted motion. Beane’s the Chief Operating Officer of the cult. His primary job is to keep a fresh supply of qualified devotees on hand for them to study at the feet of the master. He believes in the process, and he believes in McDermott. He believes that if he continues to deliver the right players, McDermott will deliver the Lombardi. Beane’s fearless. He’s willing to make a decision and accept the consequences. He doesn’t fret over the mistakes; he just moves on to the next decision. He’s willing to make the bold move. 4. The QB It’s completely obvious that Beane and McDermott are selecting players the way they said they would: they want players who are intense and non-stop competitors, players what always want to get better, players who are driven to work at their craft every day. They want disciples. Others need not apply. The latest example is Jerry Hughes, who has evolved from an occasionally flashy, occasionally frustrating athlete to superior all-around football player and leader. It didn’t seem possible three years ago. Hughes’s contract extension says two things – that he’s matured into the kind of player and leader that McDermott wants to win with, and that Hughes can see that the Bills are the kind of organization that make him a better and more successful player. Hughes wants to be part of the success that McDermott and Beane are building; he is a disciple. And he isn’t the only one. What does that have to do with the quarterback? Just this: the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and therefore the quarterback has to be the lead disciple. In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy. He loves to compete. He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews. He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago. He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered. He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude. Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady. McDermott got his in Allen. And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm. I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor. A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven. 5. The Owners How perfect is it that leading this whole effort is a pair of owners who are true believers in the process? They’ve lived the process, they’ve reaped the financial and personal benefits of doing it right, and now they’ve found a coach and a GM who preach the process. They’re believers in continuity. They know being great takes time, because it took them time, and they’re willing to give Beane and McDermott time to reach the goal. They’re the big donors in the cult. When the GM says he needs new facilities to attract and train the kind of disciples who will win football games, the owners say yes. When McDermott says he needs another coach, they back him. And they’re good people, just like McDermott and Beane and Kyle and Jerry and Josh. It’s like they’re all from Mayberry. The NFL is a club, and the club members already are proud to have colleagues like Kim and Terry. Colleagues who can be counted on to have one eye on the bottom line and the other on their moral compass. Bills fans can be proud, too. There it is. Something approaching the perfect combination of ownership, leadership and players committed to a process that will work. We’ve waited a long time for this. It’s going to be special. Count me in the cult. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Thanks. I had forgotten about QBASE. I never liked QBASE. Outsiders is good at what it set out to do: crunch the available raw data and film evaluations of whether any particular player did what he was supposed to do on any particular down and distance and come up with a ranking of how effective the player is in comparison to other players at the same position. They also do it for teams, offenses, defenses. In my opinion, it works. But it always was intended to be backward looking, not forward looking. They don't have any tools that have been demonstrated to project future performance, and that's what QBASE does. Schatz isn't a football guy; he succeeded by being a number cruncher. He's entitled to his opinion, but it's only an opinion, like everyone else's opinion. I suspect much of his opinion is driven by Allen's DYAR; if so, I think he's letting past performance become his determinant of potential, and that doesn't make sense for a rookie qb.

I find all of this interesting, but I think it misses the fundamental point. The fundamental point is that Allen's completion percentage has to go up. One deep or two, man or zone, first half or last half of the season, he wasn't completing enough of his passes. I have to think he's going to see a lot more cover 2 this year until he shows he can beat it by completing a lot of passes, which means a lot of short passes. Why cover 2? Two reasons: He has the arm to beat teams deep and has shown he can do it, so with Foster and Brown on the field often, defenses will want to avoid the problem of letting one of them go one on one deep. Also, cover 2 is more of a zone concept and it lets the defenders face the quarterback, which is necessary to try to stop Allen from killing them with scrambles. By taking away the deep ball, defenses will force the Bills to run effectively and complete short passes, neither of which they did very well last season. If Beane improved the offensive line, the run game should be revived. Where the real change is necessary is Allen has to find, and be willing to throw accurately to, his receivers in short, high-percentage routes and his backs out of the backfield. In other words, defenses will try to neutralize Allen's deep-ball abilities, and the Bills will have to demonstrate that they can go on the methodical, 10-15 play touchdown drive. When they start doing that consistently (which means when Allen starts completing 60+% of his passes), the defenses will be forced to go 1 high to stop the run and short passes, and that's when the full potential of the offense will come into play. Assuming the line will be okay this season, it's all on Allen playing like a pro QB instead of a college bomber.

Obviously anything can happen, like injuries, etc., but putting that aside, I think the Bills are definitely better than 6.5 wins. I believe this for three reasons. 1. In a sense all that matters is your Qb, and I think Allen is a star in the making. He has the physical tools, he has the leadership skills, he has the smarts and he really wants it. He will do everything he can every day to get better. I think by the middle of the season the national media will be all over him, and it won't be because of his running. I expect him to be a top 15 qb, minimum. 2. McD will always have a good defense. They were pretty good last season, and Edmunds didn't know what he was doing. Even if he isn't an all star, his improvement alone is going to make a big difference. If the optimists about Oliver around here are right, he and Edmunds are going to make the Bills a great defense. 3. I've come to understand the process. OT makes sense and it will work because Beane is getting only guys who are willing to commit to it. The Bills are going to get better every season for about the next five seasons. 2019 is the start. 2020 they will be really good. And by the way, I think the first four guys they drafted all will be significant contributors by the end of November.

The question was did they get worse? You say McCoy had his worst year ever, and you dont say you expect him to have an even worse year this year. So they're not worse thos year than they were last year so far as McCoy is concerned. Gore was better than Ivory last year (and every other year) and should be this year. And the Bills were bad at #3 running back last year, so Singleyary just has to be breathing to be equal to that. And Yeldon. You actually think that group is worse tha. Last year? Its absolutely clear on paper the Bills are not worse at running back than last year. It's impossible to answer the question on actuality until they play, so on paper is all we can talk about.

We've gotten weaker at negative poster. This board doesn't have depth at that position that we had a year ago. Free agency and the draft actually weakened us there.

It gets high marks for creative thread cross referencing and for raising an interesting question: where exactly would one go to bet on Jones not being on the roster? And, of course, what kind of odds could one get? And finally, how much would Alpha be willing to put down on it? By they way, I still think there is a good chance you're correct.

Instant nomination in the best-post-of-the-year category.

Well, I think OJ was one of the top 5 running backs of all time. It was privilege to to watch him and cheer for him. He deserved every honor and accolade he received. BUT - he doesn't deserve any more honors. If his number was not formally retired, then it should be used like any other number. His team is not going to honor him going forward, and his team should not show him the respect that goes with continuing to keep his number on the shelf.

There's just no way to know. Presumably they talked to the doctors and they said he was good to go. Presumably they talked to Kroft and he said all his work outs were fine. They kept Morse and others off the field, so it's not as though they aren't paying attention to injuries and recoveries. If we're going to criticize, the point many others have made is the one worth talking about: If you're looking for a free agent tight end, why are you signing one with a significant injury history, particularly foot injuries? Still, you make decisions as well as you can and move on. Some decisions work out, some don't. I hope Knox is a player.