Shaw66

I share this view. Dawkins hasn't impressed me as the guy to anchor the left side. I'm prepared to be wrong, but I haven't seen it yet. The best news would be if Adams actually made the team this year. That could happen if his attitude is right and he shows the raw ability. Bills might be willing to go into 2020 with less than the best possible combination of tackles in order to keep a prospect who might look like the real answer on the left.

I'm just reflecting on how life as a Bills fan has changed. We suffered through 15 years of NFL drafts, in my case foolishly hoping that some name that the Bills selected in the first round or maybe the second would make the team good. Think of the all the unreasonable expectations people put on Manuel, on Gilmore, on Maybin, on Dareus, on Sammy, on McGahee, on Lynch. It went on, year after year. You may have been excited about this choice or disappointed about that choice, but every year there was this unreasonable hope, this expectation, that we were witnessing the beginning of greatness. Viewed from the perspective of those years, the Bills' 2020 draft was an enormous disappointment. No first round pick (remember 2005, when Aaron Rodgers could have become a Bill?), an edge player whom no one expects to be a Kahlil Mack or Von Miller, a running back who's too short and too slow to be a stud, a wideout left over after a bumper crop of wideouts was drafted, a back-up quarterback, a kicker, for Pete's sake, a too slow receiver and a corner back who lasted to the seventh round. Are you kidding? We're supposed to be excited about that? We missed out on all the good quarterbacks, all the good offensive linemen, all the good receivers, some stud defensive backs. What kind of draft is this? Well, when you have your franchise quarterback, you get a backup QB in your draft every few years. When you have a really good defense, a role-playing defensive end is just what you need. When you already have a starting running back and you can get another guy to share the load without having to be a star in his own right, you do it. When you gave up your first pick to get top-end wideout, you can afford to let the cream of the crop go to other teams who are desperate to generate offense. The national press seems to be giving the Bills As and Bs for the 2020 draft. In years gone by, they would have blasted, absolutely blasted the Bills for being so clueless. Where are the impact players, the diamonds in the rough? Well, when you're good, they're already on the team. I spent 20 years looking forward to the time when the Bills would be good. In part, I looked forward to how exciting it would be. In fact, the only exciting time is when the Bills are on the field. The draft and free agency have turned out to be the most boring parts of the year. Not unimportant, but not all that exciting, either. Go Bills!!!

I'd love to sit in when McDermott has his first meeting with one of these guys. I'd be interested to hear what he says. I suspect it includes: 1. Compete. It's about competition at every position. Yes, there are guys ahead of you, but compete. 2. Be a great teammate. 3. Study. 4. If you make our team, great. If you don't, and you've done 1-3, you may be able to catch on with another team. If you've done 1-3, and if we see a future for you, we will want you on our practice squad, where you can compete, be a great teammate and study. 5. Remember, you're here because we think you can have a career in the NFL.

I agree. Study at the feet of an offensive genius and one of the great QB technicians of all time. Hold a clipboard, watch how it's done. Won't necessarily save his career, but it's a good move for him. GMs will find him much more attractive a year from now.

There's always a couple of teams to beat, so I do t worry about it. What's amazing is that people in the know are starting to look at the Bills and think the same thing.

Gunner - Thanks so much for your predraft review and for this. It's really good stuff. As I always say, I don't know anything about the college guys. I'd heard of neither of these guys before I saw their names next to the Bills logo. Having read a little about them, and what you say here, I like the picks. I think people being upset that the Bills didn't get some guys with a wow! factor don't see how McBeane have built this team and what they value. A guy like Epenesa doesn't surprise me at all. McDermott's model doesn't have two explosive guys coming off the edge. He may be happy to have one, but not two. He wants a solid, all-purpose guy on the end like, as you say, Lawson. Even with Alexander on the edge, McDermott had more size and less speed and quickness than people get excited about. McDermott wants a solid guy who can set the edge against the run and be a problem to move out of there. He's even changed Hughes since he got to Buffalo. Hughes isn't the explosive guy who threatens to blow past you inside this time, outside next time, beat you with spin moves and whatever. He's still a nice athletic guy on the edge, but he isn't Lawrence Taylor. Hughes plays a much more disciplined game than he used, still based on more speed than power, but he isn't the flashy guy he once was. McDermott wants his defense to be solid, so solid that it's tough on every square yard of the field. Remember, when McDermott is asked about sacks, he says he doesn't worry too much about sacks - he wants pressures. Epenesa is the kind of guy who will get pressures. He sound so much like Lawson last season that it seems almost like a simple payroll move - let's get the same kind of solid, good but not regularly spectacular play, but get it on a second-round rookie contract instead of what it would have cost to keep Lawson. May take a year to get him up to speed, but as you point out, the Bills have other assets on board so that there won't be a hole out there in 2020. Moss doesn't surprise me, either. I disagree with you about break-away speed. I mean, I agree that Moss doesn't have it, but I don't think it's that valuable. I mean, sure, if you have a Barkley, who's a total stud, I want him to have speed so he won't get caught from behind, but there aren't many of those guys. When you're looking at second, third, fourth round talent, a guy with special speed is there only if he's lacking other key running back skills, and speed is less important than other things. I've watched Moss on just three or four carries, that's all, and one thing stood out - he changes direction like Singletary. When I saw the first few videos of Singletary, one thing stood out - he changes direction like McCoy. McCoy changed direction like Sanders. Sanders was better at it than McCoy, McCoy was better at it than Singletary, and Singletary looks better at it than Moss - in each case, the guy doesn't have quite the quickness as the guy ahead of him. Moss doesn't have Singletary's quickness, but from what I've read I gather that he's a monster and really tough to bring down. I don't think he's really a change of pace from Singletary; it's not like one is an inside guy and the other is an outside guy. They aren't exactly the same, but they're similar. I agree very much when you say he is the kind of guy who can split the carries with Singletary. Why did the Bills go this way? This is pure speculation on my part, but here's what I think. I think that, just like in the passing game, in the running game the defenses keep getting better and more sophisticated. Just like the passing game, the running game is more and more about finding a seam and taking advantage of it. The days of having a running game based on power blocking that opens wide lanes for someone to burst through are gone. No one is able to run consistently that way any more. That's why the emphasis on oline play is on teamwork - the trick these days is to get your oline to work together to create a momentary opening. In that kind of scheme, the most valuable asset in your running back is recognition of the opportunity and lateral quickness and acceleration to take advantage of it. That's what Singletary has, and it looks like that's what Moss has, too. Moss doesn't look to be quite as quick, but his recognition looks excellent, and his change of direction in the whole is pretty impressive. Are Singletary or Moss going to pop 40- or 50-yard runs every game? That isn't who they are. They're going to get three when others get one, they're going to get eight when others get five, they're going to get 10 or 12 or 15. Frankly, I always though that's who Thurman Thomas was, a guy who isn't going to blow the top off the defense, but a guy who threatens to hurt you underneath, play after play. These guys aren't Thurman, of course, but Singletary has shown and Moss looks like they can be consistent playmakers who move the chains. The truth that some fans have more trouble admitting than others is that McDermott's view of football is about field position, ball control and long drives. His defense is designed to force opponents to go on long sustained drives. It's an attacking defense, but it's smart about when and where to attack, and when it attacks he still protects the backend. A guy like Epenesa fits that style - nothing will be easy running right against him, and he'll be a handful in the passing game. McDermott's offense is designed to succeed when forced to play the same way. If the Bills have to go 15 plays for the TD, well then they're going to be good at going 15 plays. That's what Singletary and Moss are good at. Just like the offense, it's going to be an attacking offense - that's what Diggs and Brown are for, that's what Knox is for, that's what McKenzie is for, but let's be real about it - Brown and Diggs are excellent downfield blockers because, well, McDermott is going to be about playing a possession game. It's almost as though his ideal wideout is a great blocker who can be a solid NFL receiver. And, of course, Beasley is in the lineup to be part of a possession offense. So as you say, these two picks are solid. They fit how McDermott wants to play the game. One other thing. McDermott wants toughness. He wants really tough, really disciplined players. He wants guys who hit - not necessarily heat-seeking missile types, but guys who deliver blows when they get to the point of contact. Sounds like that's who Epenesa and Moss are. Thanks again.

Bring back Shady? I like it. Bring back Gore, too, to back him up. Maybe bring in Bronco Nagurski, too. Good short yardage guy.

I'd guess McDermott sees.him as the ultimate swiss army knife on the oline. I'm not saying he is good enough to make it. But if he is, hes a great utility lineman willing to be universal backup.

how hard is it to look at the roster?

Here's an excerpt from the East Carolina football bio of him:

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this: Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds. If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated. So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board. What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need? Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up. So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.

1964 Bills WI. The AFL Championship, Browns win in the NFL. Sweet!

Thanks, Gunner. I don't know the college players, and this is great.

Oh, for sure. It's what I was saying. It's not that talent doesn't matter; it's just that the sum is greater than the parts on the oline much more than the D line, for example. My point was that it sort of matters less which position you get a stud non the oline. Give me a young Peters or a young stud guard, doesn't matter. Add him to the line and integrate him. The least talented guy on a good o line isn't as big a problem as the least talented guy on your Dline.

He also gets downfield well in the run game. I guess it's his straight on power blocking in the run game that people think is subpar

Talent still matters. Some olineman are better than others, to be sure. I just think that once you have the basics, it doesn't matter so much which position on the line gets an upgrade.

That sounds right. My point was that if you already have a passing grade on your unit, and I think the Bill's do, then you're looking to upgrade talent at any position, not just what you'd consider your weakest link. What you're saying is that Morse may be the first stud on the line and likely not to be replaced. If that's correct, and it makes sense to me, the Bills still could make use of an upgrade at any of four positions on the line.

From what I've read and heard, offensive line play is more about teamwork and execution (limiting mistakes) and less about talent. So I tend to think the way to evaluate the offensive linemen is on a pass-fail basis rather than giving them a grade. That is, five guys with a passing grade who really work together are better than an A, a couple BS and a couple Cs who aren't on the same page. In 2019 the Bills got to five guys with passing grades, with right tackle being borderline. This season they should be considerably better, because they will have a true unit that works together and because Ford should be more solid at tackle. Having said that, it helps a lot if you have one or two stars on the line, and that's where the Bills still are lacking. Maybe Dawkins, maybe Morse, maybe Ford, but none of them is there yet. Ford may be the only guy on the line with the physical potential to be a star; Morse's leadership may make him a star even if he isn't the most physically dominant in the league. So I think there's more work to be done on the line, and I think the help could be at any of the positions. I know the Bills have other needs, but I wouldn't be unhappy if the Bills took an offensive lineman in the second round.

Cool summary. Excellent, in fact. Your #2 is correct and your #3 is a great description of the pick. Yes, they're still building. I don't believe 2020 was their target year; I think 2021 was the year, and still is the year, that they expect to have quality throughout the lineup. They're still fiddling with the offensive line, they're still fiddling at linebacker. Tight end needs to get settled. But I thought from the get go that the Diggs deal said that Beane and McDermott are ready to win now. If they thought 2021 was the year, something about 2019 got them to begin looking more aggressively at 2020, and the Diggs deal was the signal. The Diggs deal said to Allen and Daboll "we expect to win now." It put a lot of pressure on them. Still, they know they have a very young core, starting with Edmunds and Allen. 2021 is still their target year. I don't think ownership will be too upset with a first round exit in 2020, provided the team seems to be progressing. It's tough to win in the playoffs, and as of right now they have an unproven roster. None of that changes my mind about Allen. Allen's their guy, he will still be their guy in 2021, unless he really melts down this year. They will be patient, so long as they see the kinds of progress from him that they're looking for. Thanks for chatting. I learn a lot about football in these discussions.

I've enjoyed talking about this. I'm not sure the is a one size fits all answer. I just hope we see a couple of years of solid improvement from Josh and then we wont have to worry that the Bills are wasting all that money.

No one would be satisfied with that kind of production. When they re-sign those guys, it's not because they're satisfied with the production. It's because they think they have a better chance of getting the production they want out of the guy than the other reasonable options available.

I know. He still is, until he isn't. Someone in that organization has to make a judgment about him, and it isn't an easy call to make. He has a lot of history that says don't do it. But the most important history is the recent history, and a passer rating north of 110 has to make you stop and reconsider. Playoffs is the last piece of the puzzle, so the fact that he hasn't met your standard in the playoffs yet isn't surprising.

I hear you. Put a different way, if Allen really blossoms in the next two seasons, no one will be surprised when he gets his big deal. What I'm saying is that so long as he doesn't crash and burn, if he just treads water on the stats we like to quote, I still won't be surprised if he gets his big deal from the Bills. It will just mean that the Bills are using their superior information about the guy to make a prediction about his future that seems odd to many fans who are disappointed with his statistical performance. Put another way, I think McBeane will think more strategically about the future than Jerry Jones.

One thing I've learned from years on these fan forums, learned from people smarter than I am, is that the number of successful, truly successful quarterbacks is so small compared to the number of guys who have played quarterback over the years that the past isn't a statistically significant sample for making predictions. If it were, there wouldn't be so many first round quarterback busts. If it were possible to predict the success of QBs based on past performance and simple metrics, teams would draft all those guys who don't make it, and they wouldn't sign the Goffs and the Wentzes to those big extensions. You're making judgments on data that isn't statistically significant. Picking quarterbacks is like picking stocks: there's a lot of historic data, but the data isn't necessarily indicative of future performance. The fact that someone hasn't done it to your statistical satisfaction doesn't mean much. And you can call it one if you like, but if you look at the data, you can see that it's more than one. Steve Young wasn't always the dominant player he turned out to be. Elway, as I've said, wasn't. The Chargers should have seen that Brees was better than Rivers, and a lot of teams, including the Bills should have been chasing him aggressively, injury or not. Every guy has a story, and not every story fits your view of the world. And by the way, as you can see just from those names, and from Montana and Brady and Bradshaw and Roethlisberger, coaching and team culture also have a lot to do with it. Football is just another modern-day black box. There's a lot more going on inside the box than we see, and although it's fun and I do it all the time, it's foolish of fans to think they actually understand what's going on inside the box. We don't.

Thanks. I know we agree, or we disagree only on some fine points that really don't matter all that much. It's not that I think more of the same will be enough. I think the indicia that will tell McBeane that Allen is making the progress are not solely, or even primarily, the stats we all love to study. In other words, more of the same is not enough for McBeane; it's just that McBeane aren't looking at the metrics you and I look at. The Bills players are graded on everything, and not just how they play. They are graded on practice. They are graded on timeliness, on weight room habits, on diet, on stuff we never see. I've heard McDermott talk about it but never understood it until Kyle Williams retired. The Bills posted a video of Kyle announcing to the team that he was retiring, and it hit me long a lightning bolt. The announcement was in a meeting room, really a small auditorium. Rows of seats, each with those armrests that serve as writing tables. The room had 60-70 seats for the "audience," just big enough for the team. The floor sloped down to the front, where the "stage" was, mostly open space with a podium in the middle. Like a small movie theater. The camera from which the video was shot was mounted high on the wall behind the speaker, so you could see the back of the speaker and the team in the seats. The place was packed - the entire roster, plus I assume the special teams guys. It was a little bit out of the Stepford Wives. Every guy was sitting straight in his seat, hand ready to take notes. No one slouching, obviously no one wearing headphones. Every guy looking straight at Kyle, listening. And then it dawned on me - these guys are getting graded at how they sit in the meeting room. You could see it. They all were sitting straight, eyes forward, hand ready to write. What was happening in that room was supposed to be the most important thing in their lives at that moment, and their body language was an indication of whether they were living that reality. I took the season ticket holder tour of the Stadium a couple years ago. The cafeteria has a scale in it. Players get on the scale at meals, punch in their uniform number, and the screen fills with data. The guy's picture, his current weight, historic weights, all kinds of other measurements. What they eat is tracked. Their diets are managed. Their weight programs are managed. Their locker room behavior is evaluated, including the neatness of their lockers. My point is that they are evaluated on things I can only imagine. In his book GM, Ernie Accorsi (Giants GM) and his ghost writer go to Penn State to scout players, including Posluzny. In the middle of the game, Accorsi said "watch the linebacker. Watch how his first step is always the correct step, left, right, in, out." When I read that I learned for all time that I don't know anything about football. I mean, who bothers to look at the feet of 22 players, let alone know what those feet are supposed to be doing? So, yes, Allen has to be improving to get a fat new contract. What I'm saying is that I, and I'd guess no one else here, has any idea what kind of improvement is necessary to convince McBeane. My measure is passer rating, but on passer rating the Broncos would have cut John Elway years before he began playing like a Hall of Famer. Tannehill's passer rating has been consistently better than Allen's, the Dolphins let him go, and now they're probably wondering why. What McBeane are going to do is evaluate Allen and make a judgment. The judgment will not be about how his stats have improved or not. The stats are just history. They are going to make the same kind of judgment they must make on draft night. They're going to try to project Allen into the future. They're going to ask themselves how much better can he get?, and how likely is it that he will get better? What he might become and the likelihood of getting there is all that matters. They want to make an accurate prediction of what the next ten years of his football life will look like. His stats, his history, may be useful in making that judgment, but not in the sense that people are talking about here. They won't be saying yes or no based on the trend in his completion percentage or his TD-INT ratio or whatever your favorite stat is. Those trends will be a small part of all of the data they consider in making the judgment. Here's one example. They will be looking at whether Allen's understanding of Daboll's offense is getting broader and deeper, whether he's making better reads, more quickly and more accurately. He could be doing all of that but still not setting up correctly, so he's still inconsistent in his throws. In that case, even though he's improving in important skills, it hasn't translated into a substantial improvement in completion percentage, because even though he's making the reads better, he isn't executing better. McBeane have to make a judgment about whether Allen can take that next step in his development. Some people here will say "if he hasn't done it yet, he won't do it, because you can't improve accuracy," or "he's had four years, and if he hasn't done it yet, he won't - look at Mahomes - he didn't need four years." McBeane will simply ask "now that he understands the offense, can we get him to make the throws?" Not "did he make the throws," not "Did he improve at making the throws." That's history. Their question is "can we teach him to make the throws?" Now, I agree with something I believe you said earlier, which is that the chances are that if Allen is showing the right kind of improvement in all of the metrics that are important to the Bills, that improvement also will show up in the metrics that you and I look at. It's probably the case that if Allen is improving regularly in McBeane's Stepford Wives world, it will show up in his passer rating, but it isn't necessarily the case. It just isn't. How do I know? Just look at draft night two years ago. McBeane obviously were using a different kind of metrics than the rest of us when they traded up to get Allen. Easily 80% of the people here were flabbergasted. How could they trade up to take the wrong Josh? Two years later it's pretty obvious that McBeane were looking at better metrics than the 80% were. So I know only two things: (1) The QB position is so important to team success in the NFL that GMs write bigger checks than would be seem to be warranted by the on-field performance of the QB to date, that is, they bet on the guy's future, and (2) the information they use to make that judgment goes way beyond the data the fans study. If I'm making predictions, I say the Bills exercise the option on Allen, and the following year they give him a big, big extension, one of those nine-figure, six-year deals. Why do I think that? (1) He has the potential. (2) He's done a lot of good things on the field. (3) He's smart. (4) He's a leader. (5) By all reports, he is intensely committed to improving. Those are the characteristics McDermott looks for in making predictions about the future. Those are the characteristics he wants to bet on. The only way I think that doesn't happen is if (1) Allen crashes over the next year or two or (2) the Pegulas get cold feet with the process and tell Beane he can't write a big deal for Josh. If (2) happens, McBeane are on a short leash, there'll be a new coach and GM within a year or two, and I'll probably die before the Bills win a Super Bowl.