Shaw66

Well, in some ways we know exactly what he is. We just don't know what he will become. What do I mean? Well, unlike most of us, Josh actually has a job that can be evaluate with numbers. We have Josh's numbers, so we know what he was in 2018 and we know what he was in 2019. Some people seem to think that what we saw in 2019 is what he will be. Others agree that Josh is likely to improve. There's a lot of debate about how much he can be expected to improve. We also know some other things about Josh. We've heard a lot of people talk about some of his characteristic. So we know who he is as a leader, for example. We know who he is in terms of work ethic. We know who he is in terms of competitiveness. We know, to some extent, who he is in terms of natural intelligence. We know all of those things, so that means in some sense we actually do know who he is and who he isn't. All of that information gives us some ability to project what he will be. I made my projection above.

You're right, and I'll go beyond that. Josh Allen is going to eliminate his weaknesses. Listening to this coach, listening to McBeane talk about why they drafted him, it's clear to me that Allen is a learning machine. He wants to keep learning how to win. That's the point the coach makes about Josh learning to dial back his desired to do everything himself. He's learning that's not the way to win. He's learning how far to dial it back, and when to turn it up a notch. This notion that he's a learning machine is what makes me expect him eventually to play with great discipline, like Brady. Josh is learning, game after game, what things maximize the chances of winning, and he's incorporating those things into his game. In another couple of years we're going to be looking at a guy with one of the great arms in the history of game who has learned to eliminate his mistakes. INTs will be low, fumbles will be low, completion percentage will be high, and he will be one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL. Believe it. It's coming. That's who Allen is. He's over the hump already, and he isn't close to being finished learning.

Thanks to you and others for their compliments.

I didn't want this thread to go off on a debate about these issues, but it was inevitable. I'd like think that at least people could agree on the Bishop's message. Follow the link in the OP and just listen. It's only a couple minutes. He's a Bills fan, and his humanity is impressive.

No, no. That's the opposite of what the coach said. The coach commented briefly about Josh's good and bad in the playoff game. But the important thing he said is that Josh is all about learning when to switch it on and off. He said Josh is smart and really wants to win, and he completely understands now that he can't do it himself. He said Josh began learning what he can't do at Wyoming and he's continuing to learn. He essentially said that he sees continuing progress from Josh in that regard. It's an interesting interview, because the guy is not a fan boy. He wasn't talking about Josh becoming a Hall of Famer or anything like that. He talks about Josh from a coach's perspective - what progress he's made, what he needs to continue to work on, what kind of guy he is. He makes no predictions about Josh's future. It's just observations on Josh's development as a football player.

Everything is upside down. In our little world, the world of the Buffalo Bills, we’ve suffered through decades that sometimes gave us heart-breaking disappointment, sometimes gave us seeming endless futility, sometimes gave us false hopes. It’s been a soul-crushing journey, and yet the souls of Bills fans survived. And now, when the Buffalo Bills and their fans finally seemed to be leaving all of that behind, seemed to be finding true success and having genuine cause for optimism, now when the football world finally was coming to recognize that the Bills’ time actually was coming, the real world has stepped in and said “not so fast.” First the COVID-19 pandemic struck, taking human life world-wide, threatening us with death and economic disruption, if not desolation. The pandemic threatens our little world, too. It threatens to derail the 2020 NFL season or at a minimum to take from us the joy of being with our team as it continues its ascent to the NFL’s higher echelons. Now our cities are burning, again, as white America is reminded, again, what black America never forgot: that we have not yet cleansed ourselves of the 400-year-old curse of slavery and racism. It’s easy for us white folk to ignore the trail of bondage, brutality, and murder of black people that is as much a part of our history as freedom and prosperity has been for white people. Both are part of who we are. Still, in our little world, Bills fans persevere. We are in this for the long term, and we will have our day, if not this season, then soon. The Bills will prevail. And the United States perseveres. We are in this for the long term, and we will continue to build a world that honors, respects and dignifies our common humanity. We too will prevail. Listen for a minute to a man who understands these truths better than I, and notice the souvenir lovingly displayed on his bookshelf: Bishop Curry We all can be proud that one of us, a Bills fan and an American, speaks with such wisdom. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

It's really quite good. It's no bs. It's just a guy who loves football and coaching talking about a player who came through their program. He didn't go into a long discussion about accuracy, but he was asked what is the one criticism of Josh today that you think his fair. The first thing he said in response to the question was that accuracy was an issue at Wyoming, but he thinks the criticism of Josh's accuracy is not fair. He didn't elaborate, but it was clear that he doesn't think accuracy is a problem. His ultimate answer was Josh's problem is that he has to continue to learn the things he can't do. He said, essentially, that when Josh showed up at Wyoming, he thought he could do anything, and that's when the process of reining him in began. He said that Josh is making progress, but he still has more to learn. He said that one of the best things about Josh is that he's all about football. He said that a lot of people wondered about Josh coming back to play in a meaningless bowl game when he was about to be a first-round draft pick. Why would he do that, people wondered. This guy says Josh is all about playing ball with his teammates. For him, there was no question that he was going to play. Some teams may have thought that was a negative, but that love of the game, that desire to compete, is what McBeane look for.

I've been to a lot of Bills home games in Orchard Park, too.

Well, I think McDermott will say he wants to be great in all phases, but I agree that his philosophy was first to build a defense that stops the pass and to be good against the run. McDermott never says it, but I think that he wants to be like Belichick in a lot of ways, including taking away the opponent's strength. Saquon Barkley had a great opening drive, then the Bills shut him down. As Nihilarian says, they pretty much shut down Henry. If anything, the defensive line should be better this year (assuming Oliver is in the lineup), so I can't get too excited about the running game that any team puts on the field. The bottom line is that McDermott wants to build a team that is really hard to beat, however you play against him, and if the past three years are evidence of a trend, he's building exactly that.

There is a simple answer to your question, although it's easier to say than to do. McDermott wants his team to be able to do what the Patriots try to do, and that is to be able to play any style. They want to be able to run, to pass, and to be balanced. They want to be able to stop the run, stop the pass, and stop balanced attacks. McBeane's approach to roster building in order to play that way is to get guys who might be a little undersized against some teams, but to counter that with strength, toughness, and quickness. I think, for example, that the Shaq Lawson/AJ Epenesa defensive end model is key to how McDermott wants to play. Big enough to hold their ground if not to overpower anyone, and quick enough to still be able to defend wide and get pressure in the pass rush. All-round players. The Bills gave up a little more than 100 yards a game playing that way last season, and got really gashed in the run game only once, by the Eagles. Yes, you say, but if the Jets come out pounding the ball on the ground, they're going to wear out the Bills defense and dominate late in the game. Well, that's why McDermott's approach is to go eight deep on the defensive line. I can't get too worried about your scenario.

That's an interesting progression. I think it reflects the progress we've seen. I also think so many of these self-proclaimed experts don't watch all the games.

I agree with a lot of others here - maybe we're all just homers - who think we haven't seen all that we're going to get out of Allen. A few miscellaneous points: 1. I'm sick of hearing about Allen's deep ball. Football Outsiders measured deep ball accuracy over the past two seasons. Average was 46%, Allen was 40. He had a horrible 2019, but he had an excellent 2018. 2. I'm sick of hearing that if you haven't done it in the first two years, you aren't going to do it. These guys go out and collect evidence about other QBs who made it or didn't, etc. The fact is, there are very few QBs who have made it, so they don't represent a large enough sample size to prove that their way was the only way. Plus, as I've said here often, John Elway was as bad as Allen for YEARS and didn't become a top-10 passer until his ninth season in the league. 3. These guys ignore his year one to year two improvement. 4. These guys talk about Lamar Jackson like he's a superstar. I seriously doubt it. At the end of their careers, the characteristic that matters most for successful QBs is brains. The game keeps changing, the defenses keep changing, and the QBs who succeed have brains. Here's a list of recent Super Bowl winning QBs and their Woberlic scores: Eli Manning 39 Aaron Rodgers 35 Tom Brady 33 Drew Brees 28 Russell Wilson 28 Joe Flacco 27 Ben Roethlisberger 25 Mahomes 24 Watson (just for comparison) 20. Lamar Jackson was 13. Josh Allen was 37. I see no reason to conclude yet that Allen isn't going to be great. These guys all just continue to recite the narrative they've recited forever. Bills suck, Allen's a project, Allen's not accurate, blah, blah, blah. All I know is this: I watch the games. I see Allen make any throw you want. I see him make incredible plays. I see a leader. I see someone worth waiting for.

I agree with your take on drafting. Collectively, the GMs find the right players and draft them high. Sure, there are exceptions, because it isn't easy, and it isn't possible to get them all right. Except for QB, I think it's more important not to miss in the first round than it is to get the best player on the board. Of the guys left on the board, if your GM takes one of the top 5, you're okay. Sure, he'll miss a JJ Watt occasionally, but that isn't the end of the world. What hurts is to miss, one of those top 5, to take a guy in the first who busts or turns out only to be a fourth round talent. Those misses kill you, because the first round is your best opportunity to add good talent. That's why I think the Diggs trade is fine. They traded an 18 overall for Diggs. He's not a fourth-round talent. He's a very low probability bust. He's very likely to be a guy you'll be happy to have in you lineup for four or five years. That means they didn't miss with their first round pick, and that's all I ask.

I don't think you're correct about Allen and Edmunds. You're looking at it from the typical fan's perspective (and my typical perspective, too). The conventional wisdom was that Allen had a high ceiling and a low floor, that is, that he had bust potential. I don't think McBeane saw it that way. When you listen to them talk about their due diligence on Allen, it became clear that they developed a very high level belief that Allen did not have the big bust potential that the media kept reporting. They liked him because he's smart, he had a high Wonderlic score, he was intensely competitive, he was a hard worker, and he had demonstrated leadership capabilities. That's what McBeane look for and, for example, they saw that stuff more in Allen than in Rosen. They sounded genuinely excited to get Allen; in fact, they sounded like Allen was their first choice of all the QBs in the draft. They didn't think they were reaching. And I think they saw the same things in Edmund. So, yeah, sure, from our perspective, we thought McBeane were going for the fences with those picks, but I don't think they did. They knew what they wanted and they went for it. The proof's in the pudding, and so far you have to agree those were solid picks. The only difference between us and McBeane is that they knew they were solid picks on draft night - for us it took a couple of years.

I agree with you, completely. I've said all along, getting Diggs said to Allen and Daboll and the o-line that it's now their job to win. I think McBeane always target 2021 as when the team would be able to compete for Super Bowls. I think after the 2019 season they realized that they are essentially a year ahead of schedule, but they needed a receiver. It's not so much that there's a "window." Usually when people use that phrase they mean that the team has the right collection of players but it will fall apart soon, because some key guys are going to retire or leave in free agency. That isn't what the Bills are looking at. They have the key people in place for the next several years. Some guys will leave, but not the core. So it isn't a window. Still, McBeane decided that there was no reason to take the risk that they'd get the right receiver and then wait for the guy to develop. They were ready for the team to move up now, and the trade gave them exactly what they needed. There you go. I'd like to know where Beane and McDermott had Dareus on their board in 2011. There's a reason they kept Jerry Hughes and let Marcel go, and I'd guess it's character issues that McBeane identified when each was coming out of college.

Whiffing on the first round pick is a killer. Shaq Lawson, Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel, Stephon Gilmore, Marcel Dareus, CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans. It's a long string of players who didn't make a difference. Gilmore is about the only one who lived up to his draft position. Sammy, Dareus, Leodis, Whitner all underperformed draft position. Maybin, Spiller, Manuel were whiffs. Too early to tell on Shaq, but he's almost certainly not a whiff. Since then, Bills have drafted White, Allen, Edmunds and Oliver. Too early to tell on them, too, but all the early indications are that Bills got good value on each pick. Likely the same conclusion on Diggs. GMs outsmart themselves. They keep trying to hit home runs in the first round. The key is, as you say, not whiffing in the first round. You don't have to get the player with the highest upside, just a very good player. So you take an Oliver, not a Maybin. Maybin looked to have the potential of a great, great edge rusher, but his floor was someplace in the sub-basement. He was boom or bust. Oliver was much more likely to be, at a minimum, a solid starter. Whiffing on Maybin hurt much more than getting Oliver's floor - if Bills end up with Oliver's ceiling, it's a huge win, but so long as he's solid it was a good pick. .

Thanks for posting this. Bob Kalsu is one of millions who died serving their country since 1770. We honor all of them by preserving our freedom with kindness and compassion for all people.

Fun. Thanks. The Sammy we thought we were getting.

Right. I usually start with the ball, find the center, and look to the right. I'd like to give a serious answer but frankly, I don't watch the offensive line and I certainly don't study film. I also don't understand the nuances of the team game that is involved in offensive line play. So I have no opinion about, for example, whether Ford should be a tackle or a guard. My point of view is that McDermott, Daboll and the online coaches will figure out the best position for each player and the best combinations, and that's who will play. We will see how they do. Unless we have someone here who's been an offensive line coach in the pros or D-1 for 15 years, I don't anyone else knows, also. That doesn't mean you can't have opinions, and it doesn't mean it isn't fun for some to talk about it, but I don't have anything to add and don't even know how to tell which opinions people express here are worth listening to. For me, it's pretty much a black box.

He had 5 or 6 games like that last year alone. No receivers string 100 yard games all season long. He's definitely going to have games under 50 yards.

Exactly.

For me, a superstar is a generational player, for sure a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He is a player who drives the game planning of opponents virtually every game. He has been consistently top-10 statistically. Putting aside quarterbacks, there may be only five or ten superstars in the league at any time. JJ Watt is one. I'm not sure there's a receiver in the league I'd call a superstar - maybe Julio Jones. Let's see how Hopkins does in Arizona before I give him the nod. Fitgerald was. Megatron. These are guys who are or were truly dominant year after year. I don't know the offensive linemen, but I assume there's an Orlando Pace type guy out there somewhere. I've never been a huge Jason Peters fan, but I won't argue if someone wants to put him in the category. I think people attach the word to guys like Vonn MIller and Kahlil Mack, but from my point of view the league has figured out how to control those guys, how to keep them from blowing up games. People were calling that tight end who played for the Saints a superstar. Then he went to the Seahawks and then the Packers and we don't hear it now. A superstar dominates wherever he goes. I think Kelce would be good on any team, but not nearly so successful as he is with arguably the best QB in the league, one of the best offensive head coaches in the league, and Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins on the outside. I agree. I responded knowing we disagreed. I wasn't trying to convince you. As I just said, my definition of superstar is probably narrower than the way most people use the term these days.

See, there's a definitional problem here. I have trouble calling any tight end a superstar, because tight ends, even one as good as Kelce, don't carry an offense. I'll give you that he's been excellent - four straight thousand-yard seasons, but he doesn't carry their offense the way you were saying that Diggs needs to. They don't force the ball to Kelce. Hill is definitely not a superstar. He is a sensational player, but they definitely do not force the ball to him. They run plays to get him the ball, sure. A superstar is a guy who can have impact even a bad team. If the Bills had traded a first, a fourth and a seventh for Hill, I would have been unhappy. Actually, I would have been unhappy if they'd traded that for Kelce, because Kelce would have had the impact on the Bills offense that I expect Diggs will have.

I don't agree with this. I think the Bills will have a balanced offense, and no one except Allen will be talked about as a superstar. I think the objective is to have an offense where there are a lot of players are threats because of the balance. Look at Kansas City. There's no one there who dominates in a way that makes me say superstar. Not Kelce, not Hill, not a running back. Really good players, but no one who is the focus of the offense. Their offense doesn't succeed by forcing the ball to anyone. Diggs should be the most talented guy on the offense, but I don't think the offense will go through him. There will be games when he goes 3 for 45 because the DC has sold out to stop him, but Brown or Beasley or Singletary or Moss will have big days. At least that's the objective. You're describing the Belichick philosophy - stop what the other team does best and challenge them to beat you. McDermott's objective is to be happy to oblige. Brown is an excellent #2 and Beasley is a good #3. They're going to do damage if the defense overloads on Diggs. Singletary is a very good running back, and it looks like Moss may be the same. They're going to do damage if the defense sells out to stop the pass. Balance is the objective, not superstars.

Thanks for posting. As to the Gase comment, I will add that in his interview with Eric Wood, Fitz said he is excited about the Dolphins. He gave a few reasons, one of which was something like "we have a good coach now."