Shaw66

And this says he is not quite JJ Watt. I will take almost JJWatt. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2878147-nfl-scouting-combine-notebook-did-aj-epenesa-crater-his-draft-stock Watching video tonight, the guy plays like a monster. That body and that attitude. Looks like a great value at 58. Goodness

And he was available at 58 why? Quickness?

You're right, of course. There's an exception somewhere, I suppose. This type of guy has been scrutinized by 32 teams, scrutinized more thoroughly than most because they once demonstrated NFL potential. He is less likely to make it than most the UDFAs , less likely but greater upside. Most UDFAS don't have Pro Bowl potential.

Good stuff here. Thanks. Yes, for sure about the back end of the draft. Welcome to the mid-20s. The other thing that Beane now will have to do is play the salary cap game. The Lawson Epenesa move looks brilliant in that regard. Bills avoid a big contract and get what looks to be an equivalent player, maybe even better. At the end of the season, McDermott said he'd be happy to go into 2020 with the roster he closed 2019 with. I thought it was a statement of support for his team, one of those positive coach-speak things that's true, of course, but McD knew he was going to get better. Turns out it was very true about the offensive line. But the more important point about that comment, which bears on the draft position Beane will have to deal with, is that McDermott was saying to Beane "I don't have any holes. I don't have needs. Get me players wherever you want, at whatever position, and if some of them turn out to be better than what I have today, great." Having an existing lineup like that was what allowed Belichick to take two tight-ends in the first four rounds a few years ago. Gotcha. You probably agree with how Gunner put it, too. I agree with what you've said. No one has low expectations. Not the fans, not the owners, not the GM, not McDermott. Not now. As soon as I heard the Bills traded for Diggs I said it was a message to McDermott and Allen - "you're expected to win now." Keeping the first pick and getting a receiver would have said "grow with this guy - we expect you to win with him." Getting Diggs said instead "keep up with this guy. It's time." I've always said that I've surmised from things McBeane have said that two years ago they targeted 2021 as the season it would all come together, the first time they should be good enough to play for a Lombardi. But I also thought they implied that if things well, it could be as early as 2020. I think the Diggs trade said they think things went well.

I agree too. My point really is that there are two different standards - the owners' and the fans. When BillsVet said the "plan has to bear fruit this season," that's a fan's standard. It doesn't "have to" at all. It's hard to win the NFL, and it's really hard to win in the playoffs. It doesn't happen in a straight line. It isn't no playoffs, wildcard loss, wildcard win, conference championship loss, then Super Bowl loss, then Super Bowl win. If the Bills have to lose another wildcard game to figure it out, that's okay with me. Not what I'll want, sitting and watching the game, but it simply isn't for me to tell the team what it "has to do." As usual, Gunner said it right. Gunner. By the way, I commented in your day 2 draft commentary that you wanted more speed. I care less about the speed than that Moss is a nice complement to Singletary. I think it's good to have guys with similar running styles - that means both guys can run the whole play book. And I think quickness, change of direction, and vision are more important in the modern NFL than break-away speed. So I actually was happy to hear the descriptions of Moss's style. On video he runs a lot like Singletary. Of course, the Bills needed a power short-yardage back, and it looks like they got that in Moss, too.

This debate went on endlessly in a thread a few weeks. It doesn't have to happen in 2020. If the Bills go 9-7, neither the HC nor the GM will be going anywhere.

My view too. I think Bojo is a leg with no real finesse. Spec teams coordinator wants to rely on him for different kicks in different situations. Coffin corner. Directional. Hang time. Low line drive types. With Boji you never know what you're going to get.

Oooh! I forgot Spiller! Oh, how I wanted Spiller to be good!

Cool way to look at it. A good balance.

I share this view. Dawkins hasn't impressed me as the guy to anchor the left side. I'm prepared to be wrong, but I haven't seen it yet. The best news would be if Adams actually made the team this year. That could happen if his attitude is right and he shows the raw ability. Bills might be willing to go into 2020 with less than the best possible combination of tackles in order to keep a prospect who might look like the real answer on the left.

I'm just reflecting on how life as a Bills fan has changed. We suffered through 15 years of NFL drafts, in my case foolishly hoping that some name that the Bills selected in the first round or maybe the second would make the team good. Think of the all the unreasonable expectations people put on Manuel, on Gilmore, on Maybin, on Dareus, on Sammy, on McGahee, on Lynch. It went on, year after year. You may have been excited about this choice or disappointed about that choice, but every year there was this unreasonable hope, this expectation, that we were witnessing the beginning of greatness. Viewed from the perspective of those years, the Bills' 2020 draft was an enormous disappointment. No first round pick (remember 2005, when Aaron Rodgers could have become a Bill?), an edge player whom no one expects to be a Kahlil Mack or Von Miller, a running back who's too short and too slow to be a stud, a wideout left over after a bumper crop of wideouts was drafted, a back-up quarterback, a kicker, for Pete's sake, a too slow receiver and a corner back who lasted to the seventh round. Are you kidding? We're supposed to be excited about that? We missed out on all the good quarterbacks, all the good offensive linemen, all the good receivers, some stud defensive backs. What kind of draft is this? Well, when you have your franchise quarterback, you get a backup QB in your draft every few years. When you have a really good defense, a role-playing defensive end is just what you need. When you already have a starting running back and you can get another guy to share the load without having to be a star in his own right, you do it. When you gave up your first pick to get top-end wideout, you can afford to let the cream of the crop go to other teams who are desperate to generate offense. The national press seems to be giving the Bills As and Bs for the 2020 draft. In years gone by, they would have blasted, absolutely blasted the Bills for being so clueless. Where are the impact players, the diamonds in the rough? Well, when you're good, they're already on the team. I spent 20 years looking forward to the time when the Bills would be good. In part, I looked forward to how exciting it would be. In fact, the only exciting time is when the Bills are on the field. The draft and free agency have turned out to be the most boring parts of the year. Not unimportant, but not all that exciting, either. Go Bills!!!

I'd love to sit in when McDermott has his first meeting with one of these guys. I'd be interested to hear what he says. I suspect it includes: 1. Compete. It's about competition at every position. Yes, there are guys ahead of you, but compete. 2. Be a great teammate. 3. Study. 4. If you make our team, great. If you don't, and you've done 1-3, you may be able to catch on with another team. If you've done 1-3, and if we see a future for you, we will want you on our practice squad, where you can compete, be a great teammate and study. 5. Remember, you're here because we think you can have a career in the NFL.

I agree. Study at the feet of an offensive genius and one of the great QB technicians of all time. Hold a clipboard, watch how it's done. Won't necessarily save his career, but it's a good move for him. GMs will find him much more attractive a year from now.

There's always a couple of teams to beat, so I do t worry about it. What's amazing is that people in the know are starting to look at the Bills and think the same thing.

Gunner - Thanks so much for your predraft review and for this. It's really good stuff. As I always say, I don't know anything about the college guys. I'd heard of neither of these guys before I saw their names next to the Bills logo. Having read a little about them, and what you say here, I like the picks. I think people being upset that the Bills didn't get some guys with a wow! factor don't see how McBeane have built this team and what they value. A guy like Epenesa doesn't surprise me at all. McDermott's model doesn't have two explosive guys coming off the edge. He may be happy to have one, but not two. He wants a solid, all-purpose guy on the end like, as you say, Lawson. Even with Alexander on the edge, McDermott had more size and less speed and quickness than people get excited about. McDermott wants a solid guy who can set the edge against the run and be a problem to move out of there. He's even changed Hughes since he got to Buffalo. Hughes isn't the explosive guy who threatens to blow past you inside this time, outside next time, beat you with spin moves and whatever. He's still a nice athletic guy on the edge, but he isn't Lawrence Taylor. Hughes plays a much more disciplined game than he used, still based on more speed than power, but he isn't the flashy guy he once was. McDermott wants his defense to be solid, so solid that it's tough on every square yard of the field. Remember, when McDermott is asked about sacks, he says he doesn't worry too much about sacks - he wants pressures. Epenesa is the kind of guy who will get pressures. He sound so much like Lawson last season that it seems almost like a simple payroll move - let's get the same kind of solid, good but not regularly spectacular play, but get it on a second-round rookie contract instead of what it would have cost to keep Lawson. May take a year to get him up to speed, but as you point out, the Bills have other assets on board so that there won't be a hole out there in 2020. Moss doesn't surprise me, either. I disagree with you about break-away speed. I mean, I agree that Moss doesn't have it, but I don't think it's that valuable. I mean, sure, if you have a Barkley, who's a total stud, I want him to have speed so he won't get caught from behind, but there aren't many of those guys. When you're looking at second, third, fourth round talent, a guy with special speed is there only if he's lacking other key running back skills, and speed is less important than other things. I've watched Moss on just three or four carries, that's all, and one thing stood out - he changes direction like Singletary. When I saw the first few videos of Singletary, one thing stood out - he changes direction like McCoy. McCoy changed direction like Sanders. Sanders was better at it than McCoy, McCoy was better at it than Singletary, and Singletary looks better at it than Moss - in each case, the guy doesn't have quite the quickness as the guy ahead of him. Moss doesn't have Singletary's quickness, but from what I've read I gather that he's a monster and really tough to bring down. I don't think he's really a change of pace from Singletary; it's not like one is an inside guy and the other is an outside guy. They aren't exactly the same, but they're similar. I agree very much when you say he is the kind of guy who can split the carries with Singletary. Why did the Bills go this way? This is pure speculation on my part, but here's what I think. I think that, just like in the passing game, in the running game the defenses keep getting better and more sophisticated. Just like the passing game, the running game is more and more about finding a seam and taking advantage of it. The days of having a running game based on power blocking that opens wide lanes for someone to burst through are gone. No one is able to run consistently that way any more. That's why the emphasis on oline play is on teamwork - the trick these days is to get your oline to work together to create a momentary opening. In that kind of scheme, the most valuable asset in your running back is recognition of the opportunity and lateral quickness and acceleration to take advantage of it. That's what Singletary has, and it looks like that's what Moss has, too. Moss doesn't look to be quite as quick, but his recognition looks excellent, and his change of direction in the whole is pretty impressive. Are Singletary or Moss going to pop 40- or 50-yard runs every game? That isn't who they are. They're going to get three when others get one, they're going to get eight when others get five, they're going to get 10 or 12 or 15. Frankly, I always though that's who Thurman Thomas was, a guy who isn't going to blow the top off the defense, but a guy who threatens to hurt you underneath, play after play. These guys aren't Thurman, of course, but Singletary has shown and Moss looks like they can be consistent playmakers who move the chains. The truth that some fans have more trouble admitting than others is that McDermott's view of football is about field position, ball control and long drives. His defense is designed to force opponents to go on long sustained drives. It's an attacking defense, but it's smart about when and where to attack, and when it attacks he still protects the backend. A guy like Epenesa fits that style - nothing will be easy running right against him, and he'll be a handful in the passing game. McDermott's offense is designed to succeed when forced to play the same way. If the Bills have to go 15 plays for the TD, well then they're going to be good at going 15 plays. That's what Singletary and Moss are good at. Just like the offense, it's going to be an attacking offense - that's what Diggs and Brown are for, that's what Knox is for, that's what McKenzie is for, but let's be real about it - Brown and Diggs are excellent downfield blockers because, well, McDermott is going to be about playing a possession game. It's almost as though his ideal wideout is a great blocker who can be a solid NFL receiver. And, of course, Beasley is in the lineup to be part of a possession offense. So as you say, these two picks are solid. They fit how McDermott wants to play the game. One other thing. McDermott wants toughness. He wants really tough, really disciplined players. He wants guys who hit - not necessarily heat-seeking missile types, but guys who deliver blows when they get to the point of contact. Sounds like that's who Epenesa and Moss are. Thanks again.

Bring back Shady? I like it. Bring back Gore, too, to back him up. Maybe bring in Bronco Nagurski, too. Good short yardage guy.

I'd guess McDermott sees.him as the ultimate swiss army knife on the oline. I'm not saying he is good enough to make it. But if he is, hes a great utility lineman willing to be universal backup.

how hard is it to look at the roster?

Here's an excerpt from the East Carolina football bio of him:

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this: Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds. If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated. So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board. What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need? Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up. So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.

1964 Bills WI. The AFL Championship, Browns win in the NFL. Sweet!

Thanks, Gunner. I don't know the college players, and this is great.

Oh, for sure. It's what I was saying. It's not that talent doesn't matter; it's just that the sum is greater than the parts on the oline much more than the D line, for example. My point was that it sort of matters less which position you get a stud non the oline. Give me a young Peters or a young stud guard, doesn't matter. Add him to the line and integrate him. The least talented guy on a good o line isn't as big a problem as the least talented guy on your Dline.

He also gets downfield well in the run game. I guess it's his straight on power blocking in the run game that people think is subpar

Talent still matters. Some olineman are better than others, to be sure. I just think that once you have the basics, it doesn't matter so much which position on the line gets an upgrade.