Rochesterfan

it would not be the probability of getting 4 yards on any 1 play that is the question. It is the probability of getting a first down from any yardage on a 4th down play. The Bills have shown themselves to be adept at getting yardage (over 4 yards) at many points throughout the game, but the issue is that in critical 4th down situations - the Bills are one of the worse teams at converting on that down at any distance - be it 1 yard or 4 yards or 10 yards. The Bills are converting at a 27% rate for 2019 and it was little better last year. McDermott has not shown a fear to not go for it in these situations as he has gambled as much as anyone on the opponent’s side of the 50. The rewards just have not been there. It gets worse when you start to pull out 4 and 1 attempts because JA has gotten many of those via a QB sneak. The probability of getting 4 yards on 1st or 2nd down is much higher as the entire playbook is open because if you do not get the 4 yards you have additional tries. The probability drops as you get to 3rd down because you are more limited in play choices - typically a pass and a quick short pass. The probability would drop even lower for 4th down because now you have to get the 4 yards - so it is almost always a pass and late in the game a pass to the sidelines. Therefore you are increasing the defenses ability to know what your play is and what to attack. If you are Drew Brees and the Saints - they probability is higher you can get a first down. If you are the Bills or the Packers or the Rams, or the Cowboys that percentage is lower and you have to factor that into the decision tree. If you have (like the Packers) a zero percent chance on 4th down (they have not converted a 4th down in 2019) and you have a kicker you trust - that boosts the Fg% probabilities and decreases the go for it probabilities. In the end that doesn’t matter because people on both sides will come out claiming you screwed it up if you lose. That is the joy of being a coach.

Which is really part of the problem with these. That was percentages based on the the big ten - a huge difference from pros. These percentage based decisions also are based upon league averages. If the Bills are a below league average team on 4th down and >1 yard then the numbers would have to be revised to fit their current situation. For example if the league average conversion rate is 50%, but the Bills only convert 4th and >1 yard 10% of the time - using the 50% gives a huge boost to the probability that is inaccurate for the team in question. I get that you have to use league averages to have enough numbers to make the math work, but teams also have to look at their own make-up to know if they are better worse or at the average. Just a quick search shows that this year the Bills convert less than 27% of 4th down attempts and of the 3 made - all were 1 yard or less. That tells me that for this team you would need to revise the initial % chance to convert way to less than 27% - closer to 0-10%. What does your win probability look like if you switch 46% probability of converting to a more accurate Bills rate of 10%? Using the Bills percentage means the FG attempt would have a higher win probability than the attempt at 4th down.

No they don’t. They are always passes if it tosses it like that. The runs are the quick handoffs. This play is a forward pass and that is the exact reason they do it.

Agreed - the bigger surprise to me was 3 different 1-7 teams getting wins. The Bills/Browns games was seen as a toss-up with the Browns favored and they won. So despite the records - the favored team won the game- it is not like the falcons beating the saints. I will take it a step further- everyone here complaining about the Bills and how hot the Steelers and Browns are - will guess what - they have 2 of their next 3 meetings against each other - so if they split as they typically do - they both get an additional loss - plus they both get Baltimore- so if they are as good as people think - both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have a good shot at 2 more losses minimally. There is still a lot of football left and somehow the Bills get destroyed for losing a close game that they were up in and had their FG kicker miss 2 kicks and a Tre White drop a game winning Int that either he or Poyer should of had, but Pittsburgh is praised for scoring 1 more point and the talk is how the Bills have no chance. I really do not get some people’s perspective on football.

This is straight BS. There was on field issues/off field issues - that RI has acknowledged that lead to some decisions. The Bills worked on a pay cut and RI agreed to it. The rest of the stuff happened because of RI own doings. We do not know (nor should we know) what the Bills discussed with RI about his mental health struggles and/or if his decisions in that regard led to the pay cut. Just listen to the players and you know this sentiment is absolutely BS. The players talk repeatedly about the environment and culture and how much everyone seems to care. To even suggest they would just throw him out without trying to get him help is absurd. The fact that it took RI over a year to realize the help he needed suggests exactly where the problem lies.

Come on guys this was easy I was over 100 and I only took it 3 times. I am sure with a could more I could bust 200 or 300. oh you don’t get to add the scores each time - man I should go to Harvard so I can QB in this league and I won’t wear gloves as a TE - plus my uncle is kind of famous. LOL

Next week it will be - Why NE - I am ready to ball - let me back in - waaaaaaah

Maybe if Taylor (or Kevin) threw for a 300 yard game in HS our resident crusader might campaign for them to start at QB especially if enough liquid is involved. Remember it does not matter if you win or lose - just throw for the magical 300 yards. LOL

This makes no sense - the issues in Jacksonville and Buffalo are totally different. The Stadium in Jacksonville is already downtown and on the waterfront. Jacksonville has a totally different issue getting fans. The Buffalo fan base is getting older and the Pegulas are building up downtown. It makes sense to explore a dome and downtown venue in Buffalo.

Nope - does not bother me in the least. The media is what it is. Where does the hype and good things get you? Look to the Browns and the Jets - heaped with praise this off-season. Up and coming teams with Super Bowl aspirations- now they are the laughing stocks of the leagues. The media is fickle and very poorly informed. I will take exactly what we are getting - a solid growing team. Just win baby - dominance matters next to nothing- you don’t make the playoffs by having 5 dominate wins - if you lose the other 11. Beat the teams you play and let’s see where we end up. The rest is meaningless.

Who cares (obviously beside you). Just keep winning - the media is unimportant. Look they anointed the Browns with no dominant wins and look at how that worked out.

SF is literally the worst undefeated team in the NFL (they are also the best, but for negativity sake - we will stick with the worst). What passes for articles in the modern day should only be printed and used to line bird cages.

Not surprised - they lost their back-up plan in Peko when he got claimed by Indy. This is the team finding out what is available in case of injury. I would not be surprised if a few more are looked at. I believe that is the play Cover1 is showing where he is getting held when AP cuts toward him and he held the spot for Johnson to make the tackle and Johnson misses low and Star is not in position to make the tackle and AP is on his back. Star did his job - the DB had to make the tackle.

If it ends up with Dodson on the PS - I would not be surprised to see some veteran DTs in to OBD to have a file in case of injury. Peko was their back-up plan and with home going to Indy - they will need some DT ideas just in case.

As expected - with Kyle getting claimed - I wonder if he will go to the PS if he clears waivers?

How do you figure this? Gore is out rushing Shady. Gore is a better complementary RB to Singletary. Gore is a better role model for Singletary. Gore has been healthier throughout his career and this season than Shady. I am not sure what having Shady over Gore would do for this team.

Thank you - was just looking this up. Both He and Brown are on career pace for targets, catches, yards, and TDs. They are projected to be top or 2nd highest of their careers and people complain we are not running enough. Not sure how you run more - throw less - and then increase targets to Cole and Brown - while getting the TE and Singletary more involved also. I am looking as the team is just fine in how they are approaching the offense - they still need to clean some things up, but they have good scoring rate in the red zone and can drive the ball 70+ yards for scores.

The way I look at it - every home game would be like a prime time game if they started at 9:30 am eastern time. They would be the only game on at that time slot every week - giving them a slot all to themselves. I think it would be cool for London, but I hate teams moving. There are a ton of logistical issues, but if they expand to 17 games and add a second bye week you could fix some of the issues. I still think they are a decade away from this being totally solved, but I think Jacksonville wants the London hammer to get other concessions in their stadium deals.

I totally agree - I am just not sure if the remaining players trust him or if all of the blame gets heaped on Gase. If he retains any of the blame - keeping these players will be tough for Douglas. I also wonder if this gives a guy like Jim Schwartz a potential opening as a stabilizing force and a connection from Philadelphia? Or maybe Mike Groh with his Rams and Philadelphia connection and a younger offensive coach.

I honestly think the a Jets have put themselves in a very difficult place. The hired a coach that did not get along with the GM. Let that GM run FA and the draft where they got guys that did not fit what they wanted and way overpayed. Sided with the coach after the draft and booted the GM to the curb. Let the coach make trades for a couple of weeks while doing a token GM search. Hire a guy that was basically the coaches choice (he may or may not be able to run a team). Let that GM and coach go through a trade deadline where they traded a former top 10 for a 3rd and 5th and took offers on several other very vocal players, but refused to make trades because they overvalued the players. Now on top of a losing culture and some already toxic culture - you have a bunch of vocal players that know they are not wanted. Now the coach that you hired to fix everything you realize is a moron and now you are stuck with all of the rest of his choices - even getting rid of him - you still have his GM - so how much leeway does he have - do you let him hire a new coach, but if the talent does not come (FA May be Leary) - now you are firing a GM with a coach in place or do you clean house and get rid of the coach and GM and try to build this right? It is just crazy. Glad it is not us for once.

They might, but they do not have to decide on Dodson until after this weekend - so my guess is they bring back Peko and then see where they are after this weekend with injuries. I also believe they have a LB on the PS and with Taylor going up - they have no DL. I would suspect that by next week barring injury - both Dodson and Peko are on the PS and the other LB - Phillips is gone. I agree - everything I read from Miami was he played mostly 3 techniques as a penetration DE, but hopefully they have him ready for the game.

I believe when they brought up Peko it was because he was the 1 technique DT on the PS to replace Harrison Phillips. Taylor has been more a 3 Technique to replace Jordan Phillips/EO. I think they saw Jordan play some 1 Technique last week and decided the combination of the 3 guys that can play 3T with some flexibility is better than Peko trying to anchor the line.

Totally agree

I imagine Peko will be back on the PS once he clears everything. This makes so much sense. Nice job.

It is a match-up league and I think the Browns match up well against use unfortunately. They have talent and speed at DE - which seems to be our weakness on OLine - especially as JA struggles to get the ball out quick. Mayfield struggles with early and quick pressure and blitzes and the Bills tend to play more coverage, plus they have a stout running game. Overall - it would not shock me if this was a loss - not because of Whois better, but the match-ups each team has. I think the Browns still lose enough to not make the playoffs because of their undisciplined nature, but in our particular match-up - I do not think it is a good one for us.